Mason Black — OGILVIE

Mason Black P Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 228 lbs AAA ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION91 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA4.99

FIP5.20

K%15.0%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%4.4%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 97 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF3030

CTRL4540

CMD4040

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4394.0

Whiff%

p1018.5%

p1013.4%

xwOBA vs

p100.387

CT (8%)

SI (26%)

CU (7%)

FB (47%)

CH-0.5 (4%)

SL-0.6 (34%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	112	463	136	36	12	100%	4.7	22.3%	9.0%	13.3%	2.9%	3.21	3.95	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	112	463	136	36	12	100%	4.7	29.4%	7.8%	21.6%	2.6%	3.21	3.03	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	124	512	155	52	16	100%	4.3	24.8%	10.0%	14.8%	3.6%	3.71	4.27	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	124	512	155	52	16	100%	4.3	24.8%	10.0%	14.8%	3.6%	3.71	4.27	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	124	512	155	52	16	100%	4.3	30.3%	10.2%	20.1%	3.1%	3.71	3.54	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	28	121	536	118	54	19	97%	4.2	19.3%	9.3%	9.9%	3.8%	5.15	4.77	+0.2
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	28	121	536	118	54	19	97%	4.2	19.3%	9.3%	9.9%	3.8%	5.15	4.77	+0.2
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	28	121	536	118	54	19	97%	4.2	22.0%	10.1%	11.9%	3.5%	5.15	4.53	+0.5
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	24	123	550	119	61	19	77%	4.0	17.8%	10.3%	7.5%	3.8%	5.84	4.97	-0.1
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	24	123	550	119	61	19	77%	4.0	17.8%	10.3%	7.5%	3.8%	5.84	4.97	-0.1
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	24	123	550	119	61	19	77%	4.0	21.6%	11.1%	10.5%	3.5%	5.84	4.66	+0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			27	8	72	330	55	35	15	30%	2.7	16.7%	10.6%	6.1%	4.5%	5.53	5.75	-1.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	42	5	91	404	66	40	19	12%	2.2	14.4%	9.4%	5.0%	5.1%	5.52	5.90	-1.4
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	42	5	91	404	66	40	19	12%	2.2	14.4%	9.4%	5.0%	5.1%	5.52	5.90	-1.4
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AAA RAW	KC	25	5	60	262	47	20	13	20%	2.4	17.9%	7.6%	10.3%	5.0%	6.15	5.28	—
2026	26	MLB RAW	KC	17	0	31	142	19	20	6	0%	1.8	13.4%	14.1%	-0.7%	4.2%	4.31	6.07	-0.5
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	KC	17	0	31	142	19	20	6	0%	1.8	13.4%	14.1%	-0.7%	4.2%	4.31	6.07	-0.5
ROS	26	MLB MLE	KC	6	0	6	25	4	3	1	0%	1.0	15.0%	10.6%	4.4%	3.7%	4.99	5.20	-0.0
ROS	26	MLB CTX	KC	6	0	6	25	4	3	1	0%	1.0	15.0%	10.6%	4.4%	3.7%	4.99	5.20	-0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	KC	—	—	97	429	70	43	20	—	—	16.3%	9.9%	6.3%	4.6%	5.49	5.86	-1.0
FULL	26	MLB A+C	KC	—	—	37	157	70	43	20	—	—	44.4%	27.1%	17.3%	12.7%	14.34	9.75	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	KC	19	19	113	478	74	55	18	100%	6.0	15.4%	11.6%	3.9%	3.7%	5.58	5.67	-1.0
2028	28	MLB MLE	KC	19	19	113	478	76	55	18	100%	6.0	15.8%	11.4%	4.4%	3.8%	5.58	5.65	-0.9
2029	29	MLB MLE	KC	18	18	108	457	71	52	18	100%	6.0	15.5%	11.5%	4.1%	3.9%	5.65	5.74	-1.0
2030	30	MLB MLE	KC	17	17	102	429	64	50	17	100%	6.0	15.0%	11.7%	3.3%	4.0%	5.79	5.91	-1.1
2027	27	MLB CTX	KC	18	18	108	456	70	53	17	100%	6.0	15.4%	11.6%	3.9%	3.7%	5.58	5.67	-0.9
2028	28	MLB CTX	KC	18	18	108	456	72	52	17	100%	6.0	15.8%	11.4%	4.4%	3.8%	5.58	5.65	-0.9
2029	29	MLB CTX	KC	17	17	103	435	67	50	17	100%	6.1	15.5%	11.5%	4.1%	3.9%	5.65	5.74	-0.9
2030	30	MLB CTX	KC	16	16	97	410	61	48	17	100%	6.1	15.0%	11.7%	3.3%	4.0%	5.79	5.91	-1.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		102	77	492	2106	329	239	83	75%	4.8	15.6%	11.4%	4.3%	3.9%	5.62	5.39	-2.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		41	31	200	856	134	97	34	76%	4.8	15.6%	11.4%	4.3%	3.9%	5.62	5.39	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		155	110	571	2465	490	238	94	71%	3.7	19.9%	9.6%	10.2%	3.8%	4.67	4.74	-4.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	39	200	863	171	83	33	71%	3.7	19.9%	9.6%	10.2%	3.8%	4.67	4.74	-1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mason Black (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.55	15.3%	11.0%	3.6%	—	5.69	15.6%	4.1%	335	+0.14	—	—	—
Paul Clemens R 2015 · 5.37 FIP	27	SP-	5.37	14.3%	14.1%	3.1%	.310	4.62	16.9%	7.3%	200	-0.75	4.58	247	80
Jake Dunning R 2015 · 5.60 FIP	26	SP-	5.60	13.4%	9.6%	4.4%	.354	4.29	14.1%	2.8%	74	-1.31	4.19	120	78
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	77
Luis Niebla R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP-	5.12	11.6%	13.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	156	75
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	75
Jacob Wosinski R 2023 · 6.31 FIP	24	SP-	6.31	17.7%	12.4%	5.7%	.351	4.73	16.8%	5.2%	148	-1.58	3.89	181	74
Noah Song R 2023 · 6.06 FIP	26	SP	6.06	12.0%	13.2%	4.2%	.239	3.84	19.6%	8.0%	114	-2.22	3.68	136	73
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	72
John Richy R 2018 · 6.47 FIP	26	SW	6.47	12.2%	12.9%	5.1%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	313	71
Michael Murray R 2019 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	16.2%	12.9%	2.0%	.405	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	116	69
Rafael Pineda R 2017 · 5.26 FIP	26	SP-	5.26	6.5%	9.9%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.25	101	68
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	67
Adam Panayotovich R 2017 · 5.45 FIP	25	SP-	5.45	9.6%	9.0%	3.7%	.375	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	121	67
Joe Record R 2021 · 4.82 FIP	26	SW	4.82	16.6%	15.3%	2.2%	.236	3.59	20.3%	8.6%	172	-1.23	2.64	280	66
David Griffin R 2022 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	16.6%	9.8%	3.2%	.285	5.85	13.9%	4.7%	81	+1.14	4.43	239	65
Brady Anderson R 2018 · 4.79 FIP	25	SP-	4.79	11.0%	7.6%	3.0%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	2.82	217	65
Alex Caldera R 2015 · 5.57 FIP	29	SW	5.57	10.4%	13.1%	3.1%	.333	4.54	11.9%	0.8%	84	-1.03	4.54	120	65
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	65
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	65
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	65

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	103	15.4%	11.4%	1.47	5.60
Dylan Covey ('23)	1.5	73	15.4%	9.9%	1.53	6.14
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10
Chi Chi González ('22)	1.3	64	13.3%	9.0%	1.41	5.44
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78