Mason Black

P Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 27 RHP 6'3" / 228 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	29	28	121	5.15	4.53	22.0%	10.1%	1.2	K 19.7% · BB 9.3% · FIP 4.73
2025	25	MIX2 levels	31	24	123	5.84	4.66	21.6%	11.1%	1.1	K 18.5% · BB 10.3% · FIP 4.91
2026	26	MIX2 levels	43	5	93	5.40	5.55	16.7%	9.7%	-1.1	K 15.0% · BB 9.2% · FIP 5.77
2027PROJ	27	MLBKC	6	6	34	5.65	5.88	13.8%	11.0%	-0.2
2028PROJ86% MLB	28	MLBKC	5	5	31	5.67	5.80	14.5%	10.8%	-0.1
2029PROJ88% MLB	29	MLBKC	4	4	25	5.73	5.84	14.5%	10.8%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.2 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo43

K%10

xwOBA vs10

Form5.27 ERA (proj 5.65) · K 6.7% (proj 13.8%) · BB 15.0% (proj 11.0%) ▼▼ last 90d · 14 IP through Oct 27

CompsClay Condrey (age 27) · Alfonso Sanchez (age 27) · Aldo Montes (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 145137vR 129

ERA5.65

FIP5.88

K%13.8%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%2.8%

Proj IP41

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 41 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4394.0

Whiff%

p1018.5%

p1013.4%

xwOBA vs

p100.387

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	112	463	136	36	12	100%	4.7	22.3%	9.0%	13.3%	2.9%	3.21	3.95	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	112	463	136	36	12	100%	4.7	29.4%	7.8%	21.6%	2.6%	3.21	3.03	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	124	512	155	52	16	100%	4.3	25.2%	10.0%	15.3%	3.6%	3.71	4.23	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	124	512	155	52	16	100%	4.3	30.3%	10.2%	20.1%	3.1%	3.71	3.54	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	28	121	536	118	54	19	97%	4.2	19.7%	9.3%	10.4%	3.8%	5.15	4.73	+0.9
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	28	121	536	118	54	19	97%	4.2	19.7%	9.3%	10.4%	3.8%	5.15	4.73	+0.9
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	28	121	536	118	54	19	97%	4.2	22.0%	10.1%	11.9%	3.5%	5.15	4.53	+1.2
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	24	123	550	119	61	19	77%	4.0	18.5%	10.3%	8.1%	3.8%	5.84	4.91	+0.7
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	24	123	550	119	61	19	77%	4.0	18.5%	10.3%	8.1%	3.8%	5.84	4.91	+0.7
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	24	123	550	119	61	19	77%	4.0	21.6%	11.1%	10.5%	3.5%	5.84	4.66	+1.1
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	5	93	412	69	40	19	12%	2.2	15.0%	9.2%	5.8%	5.0%	5.40	5.77	-1.3
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	5	93	412	69	40	19	12%	2.2	15.0%	9.2%	5.8%	5.0%	5.40	5.77	-1.3
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	5	93	412	69	40	19	12%	2.2	16.7%	9.7%	7.0%	4.6%	5.40	5.55	-1.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			27	8	72	330	55	35	15	30%	2.7	16.7%	10.6%	6.1%	4.5%	5.53	5.75	-1.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	KC	6	6	34	144	20	16	6	100%	5.7	13.8%	11.0%	2.8%	4.0%	5.65	5.88	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	KC	6	6	36	151	22	16	6	100%	6.0	14.5%	10.8%	3.7%	4.0%	5.67	5.80	-0.2
2029	29	MLB MLE	KC	5	5	28	119	17	13	5	100%	5.6	14.5%	10.8%	3.7%	4.0%	5.73	5.84	-0.1
2030	30	MLB MLE	KC	4	4	21	90	13	10	4	100%	5.3	14.2%	10.9%	3.2%	4.2%	5.84	5.97	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	KC	5	5	31	131	19	14	5	100%	6.2	14.5%	10.8%	3.7%	4.0%	5.67	5.80	-0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	KC	4	4	25	106	15	11	4	100%	6.2	14.5%	10.8%	3.7%	4.0%	5.73	5.84	-0.1
2030	30	MLB CTX	KC	3	3	19	80	11	9	3	100%	6.3	14.2%	10.9%	3.2%	4.2%	5.84	5.97	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		39	20	146	645	100	69	28	51%	3.7	15.6%	10.7%	4.9%	4.3%	5.63	5.51	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		54	28	200	882	137	94	38	52%	3.7	15.6%	10.7%	4.9%	4.3%	5.63	5.51	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		156	110	573	2473	502	238	94	71%	3.7	20.3%	9.6%	10.7%	3.8%	4.65	4.69	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	38	200	863	175	83	33	71%	3.7	20.3%	9.6%	10.7%	3.8%	4.65	4.69	-0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 62 IPFIP 5.12 → 5.51 (+0.39)K% 18.5% → 15.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.52%	—	×0.860	15.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.41%	—	×0.900	6.67%
HR / BF /BF	4.81%	÷1.000	×1.100	5.30%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.12 → 5.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASacramento River Cats · 119 IPFIP 4.50 → 4.91 (+0.41)K% 21.5% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.47%	—	×0.860	18.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.49%	—	×0.900	10.34%
HR / BF /BF	3.20%	÷0.938	×1.100	3.75%

Result: FIP 4.50 → 4.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASacramento River Cats · 84 IPFIP 4.24 → 4.54 (+0.30)K% 23.7% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.71%	—	×0.860	20.39%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.63%	—	×0.900	9.56%
HR / BF /BF	3.27%	÷1.010	×1.100	3.56%

Result: FIP 4.24 → 4.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASacramento River Cats · 61 IPFIP 4.18 → 4.44 (+0.26)K% 27.9% → 24.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.91%	—	×0.860	24.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.02%	—	×0.900	10.81%
HR / BF /BF	3.49%	÷1.057	×1.100	3.63%

Result: FIP 4.18 → 4.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 63 IPFIP 2.90 → 4.02 (+1.12)K% 32.7% → 26.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.68%	—	×0.810	26.47%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.27%	—	×1.100	9.09%
HR / BF /BF	2.76%	÷0.906	×1.200	3.65%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 81).

Result: FIP 2.90 → 4.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Eugene Emeralds · 78 IPFIP 3.65 → 4.57 (+0.92)K% 28.0% → 21.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.05%	—	×0.770	21.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.54%	—	×1.150	9.82%
HR / BF /BF	3.35%	÷1.120	×1.250	3.74%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 124).

Result: FIP 3.65 → 4.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ASan Jose Giants · 34 IPFIP 1.50 → 2.45 (+0.94)K% 32.6% → 24.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.59%	—	×0.740	24.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.93%	—	×1.180	6.99%
HR / BF /BF	0.74%	÷1.063	×1.300	0.91%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 113).

Result: FIP 1.50 → 2.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mason Black (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	4.0%	—	5.86	14.4%	3.6%	85	-0.02	—	—	—
Clay Condrey R 2003 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP-	5.41	14.9%	10.1%	4.2%	.303	4.07	13.1%	7.4%	29	-1.34	3.18	250	83
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	80
Aldo Montes R 2017 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.4%	8.5%	3.3%	.322	4.69	18.2%	7.6%	75	-0.27	4.69	210	78
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.83 FIP	27	SP-	5.83	14.2%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	75
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	75
Luis Niebla R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP-	5.12	11.6%	13.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	156	75
Noah Song R 2023 · 6.06 FIP	26	SP	6.06	12.0%	13.2%	4.2%	.239	3.80	19.8%	8.3%	116	-2.26	3.68	138	74
Paul Clemens R 2015 · 5.37 FIP	27	SP-	5.37	14.3%	14.1%	3.1%	.310	4.62	16.9%	7.3%	200	-0.75	4.58	345	74
Jim Brower R 2000 · 5.54 FIP	27	SP-	5.54	10.9%	10.2%	3.8%	.314	4.22	16.4%	7.2%	310	-1.32	3.67	571	72
Adam Panayotovich R 2017 · 5.45 FIP	25	SP-	5.45	9.6%	9.0%	3.7%	.375	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	121	71
Luis Romero R 2021 · 6.01 FIP	27	SW	6.01	13.8%	10.1%	5.1%	.293	5.68	11.7%	-1.4%	68	-0.33	4.00	293	71
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	71
Shawn Dubin R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	20.0%	12.9%	3.3%	.292	3.97	21.8%	11.4%	79	-0.90	3.02	341	71
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	70
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	70
Drake Fellows R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	26	SP-	4.97	16.1%	12.7%	2.9%	.293	4.85	14.2%	6.3%	207	-0.12	4.28	282	70
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2015 · 5.24 FIP	27	SP-	5.24	11.6%	9.8%	3.4%	.263	4.28	15.3%	5.2%	167	-0.96	4.01	272	70
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	70
Chris Jensen R 2018 · 5.31 FIP	27	SW	5.31	12.0%	10.6%	3.4%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	488	69
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	69

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	33	15.1%	10.8%	1.63	5.64
Dave Stevens ('00)	1.3	50	14.6%	11.3%	1.76	6.02
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Steve Shields ('85-'89, -3 WAR*)	1.1	55	17.0%*	9.0%*	1.61*	5.49*
Dennis Powell ('85-'93, -2 WAR*)	1.7	49	17.6%*	10.1%*	1.18*	5.31*
Darrel Akerfelds ('86-'91, -3 WAR*)	1.2	78	15.8%*	11.9%*	1.61*	5.40*