Tyler Stuart — OGILVIE

Tyler Stuart P Harrisburg Senators

Age 26 RHP 6'9" / 250 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.1 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 3 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.54

FIP4.54

K%19.8%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%10.7%

ROS IP3

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 3 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	2	4	20	7	3	0	67%	1.2	35.0%	15.0%	20.0%	0.0%	9.82	2.04	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	3	2	4	20	7	3	0	67%	1.2	35.0%	15.0%	20.0%	0.0%	9.82	1.74	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	111	447	112	32	7	100%	5.3	19.5%	8.1%	11.4%	2.0%	2.20	3.55	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	111	447	112	32	7	100%	5.3	19.5%	8.1%	11.4%	2.0%	2.20	3.55	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	111	447	112	32	7	100%	5.3	25.1%	7.2%	17.9%	1.6%	2.20	2.77	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	122	521	135	37	10	100%	4.9	21.0%	7.4%	13.6%	2.3%	4.12	3.53	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	122	521	135	37	10	100%	4.9	21.0%	7.4%	13.6%	2.3%	4.12	3.53	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	122	521	135	37	10	100%	4.9	25.9%	7.1%	18.8%	1.9%	4.12	2.86	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	10	9	36	156	36	19	3	90%	3.6	15.6%	15.0%	0.6%	4.2%	4.29	6.01	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	10	9	36	156	36	19	3	90%	3.6	15.6%	15.0%	0.6%	4.2%	4.29	6.01	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	10	9	36	156	36	19	3	90%	3.6	23.1%	12.2%	10.9%	1.9%	4.29	3.77	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	WSH	1	1	3	13	3	1	0	100%	3.0	19.8%	9.1%	10.7%	2.9%	4.54	4.54	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	WSH	18	18	108	458	91	41	13	100%	6.0	20.0%	9.1%	10.9%	2.9%	4.54	4.55	+0.4
2028	28	MLB MLE	WSH	18	18	105	444	89	40	14	100%	5.8	20.0%	9.1%	10.9%	3.0%	4.58	4.61	+0.4
2029	29	MLB MLE	WSH	17	17	100	424	84	39	14	100%	5.9	19.9%	9.3%	10.6%	3.2%	4.66	4.73	+0.2
2030	30	MLB MLE	WSH	16	16	94	399	78	38	13	100%	5.9	19.6%	9.5%	10.1%	3.4%	4.79	4.89	+0.0
2031	31	MLB MLE	WSH	15	15	88	372	71	37	13	100%	5.9	19.2%	9.9%	9.3%	3.6%	4.97	5.09	-0.2
2027	27	MLB CTX	WSH	7	7	41	173	35	16	5	100%	5.9	20.0%	9.1%	10.9%	2.9%	4.54	4.55	+0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	WSH	10	10	63	266	53	24	8	100%	6.3	20.0%	9.1%	10.9%	3.0%	4.58	4.61	+0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	WSH	12	12	71	300	60	28	10	100%	5.9	19.9%	9.3%	10.6%	3.2%	4.66	4.73	+0.1
2030	30	MLB CTX	WSH	12	12	74	312	61	30	11	100%	6.2	19.6%	9.5%	10.1%	3.4%	4.79	4.89	+0.0
2031	31	MLB CTX	WSH	12	12	74	312	60	31	11	100%	6.2	19.2%	9.9%	9.3%	3.6%	4.97	5.09	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		54	54	322	1359	268	128	44	100%	6.0	19.7%	9.4%	10.3%	3.3%	4.73	4.42	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	167	80	27	100%	6.0	19.7%	9.4%	10.3%	3.3%	4.73	4.42	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		59	57	272	1144	228	101	27	97%	4.6	20.0%	8.9%	11.1%	2.4%	3.44	3.85	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	42	200	840	168	75	20	97%	4.6	20.0%	8.9%	11.1%	2.4%	3.44	3.85	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Stuart (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.54	19.8%	9.1%	2.9%	—	4.63	20.0%	10.8%	314	+0.09	—	—	—
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	82
Jake Lee R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	26	SP	3.76	20.5%	9.7%	2.1%	.362	5.44	15.8%	9.4%	113	+1.68	2.78	181	82
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	81
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	80
Jake Walters R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	17.0%	9.4%	2.1%	.316	5.89	14.8%	0.9%	72	+1.86	3.51	261	80
Burch Smith R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	27	SP	3.93	19.5%	12.6%	1.6%	.234	4.43	22.2%	10.5%	192	+0.50	3.50	382	79
Markus Solbach R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	27	SP	3.58	16.9%	6.1%	2.1%	.311	4.62	17.1%	9.1%	111	+1.04	3.34	391	79
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	79
Chase Whitley R 2015 · 3.53 FIP	26	SP	3.53	18.1%	7.4%	1.8%	.275	3.52	18.5%	12.0%	123	-0.01	3.09	159	78
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	78
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	75
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	75
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	74
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.34	22.5%	9.8%	109	+0.91	3.43	142	74
Brandon Young R 2023 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP	4.49	17.9%	6.3%	3.8%	.338	3.90	20.6%	13.1%	353	-0.59	3.08	476	74
Zack Wheeler R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	27	SP	4.75	21.0%	10.1%	3.9%	.327	3.09	23.0%	16.8%	449	-1.66	2.28	1,586	74
Spencer Schwellenbach R 2023 · 4.00 FIP	23	SP	4.00	14.5%	8.5%	1.9%	.273	3.09	24.5%	19.9%	266	-0.91	3.05	318	74
Michael Peoples R 2018 · 3.75 FIP	26	SP	3.75	17.8%	7.3%	2.3%	.313	3.96	17.8%	12.8%	145	+0.21	3.75	577	73
Zach Haake R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	26	SP	4.45	16.8%	9.0%	3.0%	.291	4.72	20.2%	6.1%	49	+0.27	3.44	272	73
Justin Topa R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	15.1%	7.9%	2.4%	.374	2.69	19.2%	12.6%	40	-1.46	2.67	280	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.7	89	19.8%	9.3%	1.24	4.69
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Daniel Mengden ('19)	1.5	73	17.3%	7.7%	1.24	4.68
Tyler Skaggs ('19)	1.7	85	22.9%	8.2%	1.09	4.24
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09