Tyler Stuart
P
Harrisburg Senators
+0.3
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'9" / 250 lbs
AA
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.46
FIP4.46
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.2%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%11.8%
IP50
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | A | St. Lucie Mets | 3 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 7 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 9.82 | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | 21 | 21 | 111 | 447 | 112 | 32 | 7 | 19.5% | 8.1% | 2.0% | 2.20 | 3.55 | +2.2 |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 25 | 25 | 122 | 521 | 135 | 37 | 10 | 21.2% | 7.7% | 2.3% | 4.12 | 3.55 | +2.4 |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 10 | 9 | 36 | 156 | 36 | 19 | 3 | 15.6% | 15.0% | 4.3% | 4.29 | 6.02 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 50 | — | 50 | 213 | 45 | 20 | 6 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 4.46 | 4.46 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 50 | — | 50 | 212 | 45 | 20 | 6 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 4.45 | 4.46 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 49 | — | 49 | 208 | 45 | 20 | 6 | 21.5% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 4.46 | 4.47 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 48 | — | 48 | 204 | 44 | 19 | 6 | 21.5% | 9.5% | 3.0% | 4.49 | 4.51 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 42 | 19 | 6 | 21.3% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.53 | 4.57 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 45 | — | 45 | 191 | 40 | 19 | 6 | 21.1% | 9.7% | 3.1% | 4.60 | 4.64 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 43 | — | 43 | 183 | 38 | 18 | 6 | 20.8% | 9.9% | 3.2% | 4.68 | 4.73 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 41 | — | 41 | 175 | 36 | 18 | 6 | 20.5% | 10.0% | 3.3% | 4.77 | 4.83 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 39 | — | 39 | 166 | 33 | 17 | 6 | 20.2% | 10.2% | 3.4% | 4.87 | 4.93 | +0.0 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 37 | — | 37 | 156 | 31 | 16 | 5 | 19.8% | 10.5% | 3.5% | 4.98 | 5.06 | -0.0 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | WSH | 35 | — | 35 | 146 | 28 | 16 | 5 | 19.3% | 10.7% | 3.6% | 5.11 | 5.19 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 59 | 57 | 272 | 1144 | 229 | 103 | 27 | 20.0% | 9.0% | 2.4% | 3.44 | 3.86 | +4.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 42 | 200 | 840 | 168 | 76 | 20 | 20.0% | 9.0% | 2.4% | 3.44 | 3.86 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tyler Stuart (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.46 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.9% | — | 4.48 | 21.5% | 12.0% | 148 | +0.02 | — | — | — |
| Colton Murray R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.05 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .295 | 4.28 | 21.8% | 13.1% | 41 | +0.23 | 3.34 | 187 | 90 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.85 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.07 | 3.23 | 161 | 90 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.45 | 19.9% | 9.8% | 3.3% | .278 | 4.78 | 22.7% | 10.3% | 89 | +0.33 | 2.65 | 315 | 89 |
| Randall Delgado R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 2.2% | .303 | 4.06 | 19.2% | 12.5% | 143 | +0.23 | 3.05 | 290 | 89 |
| Shawn Armstrong R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.33 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .282 | 3.20 | 26.9% | 17.2% | 144 | -1.13 | 1.79 | 618 | 89 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.22 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 3.0% | .273 | 4.53 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 88 | +0.31 | 3.70 | 187 | 89 |
| R.J. Alaniz R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.90 | 20.7% | 8.9% | 2.6% | .318 | 3.29 | 23.8% | 15.0% | 96 | -0.61 | 2.45 | 362 | 89 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.52 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .244 | 3.73 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 168 | +0.21 | 3.18 | 253 | 88 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.84 | 21.6% | 8.2% | 2.8% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 206 | 87 |
| Carlos Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.79 | 18.2% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .266 | 4.46 | 14.3% | 2.3% | 36 | +0.67 | 3.75 | 154 | 87 |
| Brett McKinney R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.57 | 18.5% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 183 | 87 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2028 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.34 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.07 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.73 | 3.25 | 150 | 86 |
| Ryan Middendorf R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.93 | 19.6% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .293 | 4.50 | 12.8% | -1.5% | 34 | -0.43 | 1.27 | 164 | 86 |
| Tyler Myrick R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.74 | 20.6% | 9.8% | 2.1% | .307 | 5.33 | 13.0% | 4.1% | 59 | +1.59 | 3.36 | 204 | 86 |
| Matt Pushard R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.86 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 3.0% | .242 | 2.97 | 25.1% | 15.7% | 62 | -0.89 | 2.97 | 167 | 86 |
| Héctor Neris R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.97 | 20.9% | 10.0% | 2.5% | .298 | 3.00 | 31.5% | 23.7% | 221 | -0.97 | 1.99 | 682 | 86 |
| Ryan Kelly R 2027 · 3.50 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.50 | 20.3% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .241 | 3.22 | 20.8% | 14.2% | 43 | -0.28 | 2.49 | 131 | 86 |
| Josh Martin R 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.38 | 19.1% | 8.7% | 1.4% | .279 | 4.03 | 21.5% | 10.2% | 92 | +0.65 | 2.43 | 225 | 86 |
| Troy Neiman R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.99 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 199 | 86 |
| Derek Gordon R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.59 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 146 | 86 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.