Tyler Stuart

P Harrisburg Senators

Age 27 RHP 6'9" / 250 lbs AA peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	23	MIX2 levels	21	21	111	2.20	2.77	25.1%	7.2%	—	K 19.5% · BB 8.1% · FIP 3.55
2024	24	MIX2 levels	25	25	122	4.12	2.86	25.9%	7.1%	—	K 21.1% · BB 7.4% · FIP 3.53
2025	25	MIX3 levels	10	9	36	4.29	3.77	23.1%	12.2%	—	K 15.6% · BB 15.0% · FIP 6.01
2026	26	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	27	MLBWSH	1	1	1	4.64	4.64	20.3%	9.8%	0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBWSH	2	2	10	4.66	4.69	20.5%	9.9%	0.1

Next 2 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsAntonio Guzman (age 27) · Luke Hudson (age 27) · Ramon Ramirez (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.64

FIP4.64

K%20.3%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%10.5%

Proj IP27

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 27 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	2	4	20	7	3	0	67%	1.2	35.0%	15.0%	20.0%	0.0%	9.82	2.04	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	3	2	4	20	7	3	0	67%	1.2	35.0%	15.0%	20.0%	0.0%	9.82	1.74	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	111	447	112	32	7	100%	5.3	19.5%	8.1%	11.4%	2.0%	2.20	3.55	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	111	447	112	32	7	100%	5.3	25.1%	7.2%	17.9%	1.6%	2.20	2.77	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	122	521	135	37	10	100%	4.9	21.1%	7.4%	13.7%	2.3%	4.12	3.53	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	122	521	135	37	10	100%	4.9	21.1%	7.4%	13.7%	2.3%	4.12	3.53	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	122	521	135	37	10	100%	4.9	25.9%	7.1%	18.8%	1.9%	4.12	2.86	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	10	9	36	156	36	19	3	90%	3.6	15.6%	15.0%	0.6%	4.2%	4.29	6.01	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	10	9	36	156	36	19	3	90%	3.6	15.6%	15.0%	0.6%	4.2%	4.29	6.01	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	10	9	36	156	36	19	3	90%	3.6	23.1%	12.2%	10.9%	1.9%	4.29	3.77	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	WSH	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	20.3%	9.8%	10.5%	3.0%	4.64	4.64	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	WSH	4	4	26	110	22	11	3	100%	6.5	20.5%	9.9%	10.6%	3.1%	4.66	4.69	+0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	WSH	2	2	10	42	9	4	1	100%	5.0	20.5%	9.9%	10.6%	3.1%	4.66	4.69	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		2	2	10	41	8	4	1	100%	4.9	20.5%	9.9%	10.6%	3.1%	4.66	4.31	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	164	82	20	100%	6.0	20.5%	9.9%	10.6%	3.1%	4.66	4.31	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		59	57	272	1144	229	101	27	97%	4.6	20.0%	8.9%	11.1%	2.4%	3.44	3.85	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	42	200	840	168	75	20	97%	4.6	20.0%	8.9%	11.1%	2.4%	3.44	3.85	+1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAHarrisburg Senators · 19 IPFIP 5.07 → 6.01 (+0.94)K% 19.3% → 15.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.32%	—	×0.810	15.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.64%	—	×1.100	15.00%
HR / BF /BF	3.41%	÷0.963	×1.200	4.25%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 93).

Result: FIP 5.07 → 6.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Nationals · 7 IPFIP 2.86 → 4.17 (+1.31)K% 28.6% → 19.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.57%	—	×0.680	19.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.14%	—	×1.250	21.43%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.328	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 166).

Result: FIP 2.86 → 4.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 9 IPFIP 1.18 → 1.77 (+0.59)K% 27.3% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.27%	—	×0.770	21.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.03%	—	×1.150	3.48%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.967	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 93).

Result: FIP 1.18 → 1.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAHarrisburg Senators · 106 IPFIP 2.66 → 3.42 (+0.75)K% 27.4% → 22.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.42%	—	×0.810	22.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.07%	—	×1.100	6.67%
HR / BF /BF	2.02%	÷0.990	×1.200	2.45%

Result: FIP 2.66 → 3.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAARochester Red Wings · 17 IPFIP 4.04 → 4.16 (+0.12)K% 17.1% → 14.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.11%	—	×0.860	14.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.16%	—	×0.900	11.84%
HR / BF /BF	1.32%	÷0.986	×1.100	1.47%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 97).

Result: FIP 4.04 → 4.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 76 IPFIP 2.26 → 3.05 (+0.79)K% 27.8% → 21.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.81%	—	×0.770	21.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.62%	—	×1.150	8.76%
HR / BF /BF	0.99%	÷1.054	×1.250	1.18%

Result: FIP 2.26 → 3.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 35 IPFIP 3.77 → 4.61 (+0.84)K% 19.3% → 15.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.31%	—	×0.810	15.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.21%	—	×1.100	6.83%
HR / BF /BF	2.76%	÷0.925	×1.200	3.58%

Result: FIP 3.77 → 4.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Stuart (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.64	20.3%	9.8%	3.0%	—	4.69	20.5%	10.6%	26	+0.05	—	—	—
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	83
Luke Hudson R 2004 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP	3.82	18.6%	11.8%	1.5%	.237	4.59	14.2%	3.9%	187	+0.77	3.81	235	78
Ramon Ramirez R 2008 · 4.31 FIP	25	SP-	4.31	20.0%	10.5%	2.9%	.200	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	182	78
Ryan Jennings R 2024 · 3.60 FIP	25	SP	3.60	20.4%	10.4%	1.7%	.286	4.93	25.0%	10.3%	58	+1.33	3.43	142	78
Austin Bergner R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	27	SP	4.84	22.2%	12.5%	3.7%	.325	4.42	18.7%	7.3%	107	-0.42	4.06	464	74
Markus Solbach R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	27	SP	3.58	16.9%	6.1%	2.1%	.311	4.62	17.1%	9.1%	111	+1.04	3.34	391	74
Connor Grey R 2021 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	22.1%	8.1%	2.8%	.286	4.37	16.2%	7.0%	104	+0.55	2.70	461	72
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	72
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	72
Rolando Valdez R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	29	SP	4.07	13.3%	5.9%	2.4%	.301	3.78	13.2%	7.9%	176	-0.29	3.06	258	72
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	72
Mickey Callaway R 2002 · 4.22 FIP	27	SP	4.22	15.6%	7.5%	2.7%	.248	4.41	14.6%	5.8%	72	+0.19	4.22	126	71
Burch Smith R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	27	SP	3.93	19.5%	12.6%	1.6%	.234	4.43	22.2%	10.5%	192	+0.50	3.50	418	71
Justin Topa R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	15.1%	7.9%	2.4%	.374	2.69	19.2%	12.6%	40	-1.46	2.67	284	71
Cole Johnson R 2016 · 3.61 FIP	27	SP	3.61	14.0%	4.8%	2.0%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.52	101	71
J.J. Niekro R 2024 · 4.11 FIP	26	SP	4.11	17.6%	9.3%	2.4%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.23	263	70
Cody Anderson R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	28	SP	4.33	18.9%	7.5%	3.4%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	279	70
Clay Condrey R 2003 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP-	5.41	14.9%	10.1%	4.2%	.303	4.07	13.1%	7.4%	29	-1.34	3.18	250	70
Stephen Fife R 2013 · 3.94 FIP	26	SP	3.94	17.4%	7.0%	2.6%	.330	3.11	18.8%	10.7%	27	-0.83	3.11	264	69
Bryan Evans R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	28	SP	4.13	17.8%	6.2%	3.2%	.250	4.60	19.7%	14.9%	132	+0.47	3.89	231	69

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	20.4%	9.8%	1.17	4.65
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Jacob Barnes ('25)	1.7	48	22.0%	9.2%	1.15	4.79
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*