J.J. Niekro — OGILVIE

J.J. Niekro P Rome Emperors

Age 29 RHP 6'0" / 185 lbs A+

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 24 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.47

FIP4.47

K%21.5%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%12.2%

ROS IP24

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 24 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	10	0	16	79	23	9	0	0%	1.6	19.8%	14.2%	5.6%	0.0%	2.76	3.23	—
2021	23	ROK RAW	FCL Braves	10	0	16	79	23	9	0	0%	1.6	29.1%	11.4%	17.7%	0.0%	2.76	1.94	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	17	121	487	114	33	11	71%	5.1	17.6%	7.9%	9.7%	2.8%	3.19	4.16	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	17	121	487	114	33	11	71%	5.1	23.4%	6.8%	16.6%	2.3%	3.19	3.22	—
2023	25	A+ MLE	Rome Braves	31	7	85	366	75	36	11	23%	2.7	15.8%	11.3%	4.5%	3.7%	4.89	5.22	—
2023	25	A+ RAW	Rome Braves	31	7	85	366	75	36	11	23%	2.7	20.5%	9.8%	10.7%	3.0%	4.89	4.29	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	8	8	40	166	36	14	3	100%	5.0	17.6%	9.3%	8.3%	2.4%	4.02	4.11	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	8	8	40	166	36	14	3	100%	5.0	17.6%	9.3%	8.3%	2.4%	4.02	4.11	—
2024	26	AA RAW	Mississippi Braves	8	8	40	166	36	14	3	100%	5.0	21.7%	8.4%	13.3%	1.8%	4.02	3.32	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	1	13	55	15	9	1	17%	2.1	27.3%	16.4%	10.9%	1.8%	6.39	3.87	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	1	13	55	15	9	1	17%	2.1	27.3%	16.4%	10.9%	1.8%	6.39	3.87	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	1	13	55	15	9	1	17%	2.1	27.3%	16.4%	10.9%	1.8%	6.39	3.89	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	ATL	23	0	24	101	22	9	3	0%	1.0	21.5%	9.2%	12.2%	3.0%	4.47	4.47	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	ATL	21	0	22	93	20	9	3	0%	1.1	21.3%	9.5%	11.8%	3.2%	4.56	4.63	-0.0
2028	30	MLB CTX	ATL	7	0	7	30	6	3	1	0%	1.0	21.3%	9.5%	11.8%	3.2%	4.56	4.63	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	7	28	6	3	1	0%	1.1	21.3%	9.5%	11.8%	3.2%	4.56	4.25	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	179	90	30	0%	1.1	21.3%	9.5%	11.8%	3.2%	4.56	4.25	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		79	33	275	1153	203	116	32	42%	3.5	17.6%	10.0%	7.6%	2.8%	3.96	4.41	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	24	200	838	147	84	23	42%	3.5	17.6%	10.0%	7.6%	2.8%	3.96	4.41	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
J.J. Niekro (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.47	21.5%	9.2%	3.0%	—	4.63	21.3%	11.8%	22	+0.16	—	—	—
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	69
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	69
Carlos Frías R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	29	SP-	4.42	16.9%	11.1%	2.4%	.369	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	236	68
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	68
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	67
Jorge Martinez R 2016 · 3.53 FIP	31	SP-	3.53	12.9%	5.3%	1.6%	.266	3.71	16.5%	11.5%	154	+0.18	3.53	214	66
Zach Stewart R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP-	4.43	14.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.322	5.17	11.7%	2.1%	51	+0.74	4.27	194	65
Orlando Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	13.7%	10.6%	2.5%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	119	65
Bradin Hagens R 2018 · 4.92 FIP	29	SP-	4.92	14.9%	9.9%	3.3%	.341	5.46	13.2%	0.6%	66	+0.54	3.79	254	65
Ryan Jensen R 2005 · 4.35 FIP	29	SW	4.35	15.7%	5.2%	3.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	4.35	253	65
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	64
Ryan Glynn R 2004 · 5.23 FIP	29	SW	5.23	15.7%	7.9%	4.5%	.234	5.98	18.3%	9.8%	17	+0.75	5.23	226	64
Steve Johnson R 2017 · 4.53 FIP	29	SW	4.53	20.3%	8.9%	3.7%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	2.22	206	63
Aldo Montes R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	29	SW	4.69	18.2%	10.6%	3.3%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.69	210	63
Alfonso Sanchez R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	29	SW	4.51	12.5%	9.8%	2.2%	.346	7.58	8.6%	1.4%	39	+3.07	4.51	224	62
Kolton Mahoney R 2019 · 3.56 FIP	27	SW	3.56	19.4%	8.8%	1.8%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	302	62
Mitch Neunborn R 2024 · 4.25 FIP	27	SP-	4.25	19.0%	12.0%	2.2%	.285	5.80	16.4%	6.5%	114	+1.55	3.65	248	62
Jose A. Flores R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	29	SP-	4.77	13.7%	10.3%	2.8%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	237	62
Mike Wright Jr. R 2019 · 3.76 FIP	29	SW	3.76	19.9%	7.2%	2.6%	.347	4.19	17.6%	7.3%	169	+0.43	3.76	725	62
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	62