J.J. Niekro
P
Rome Emperors
Age 28
RHP
6'0" / 185 lbs
A+
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 30 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 103
ERA4.49
FIP4.49
K%21.7%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%12.2%
ROS IP30
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 30 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | ROK | FCL Braves | 10 | 0 | 16 | 79 | 23 | 9 | 0 | 0% | 1.6 | 19.8% | 14.2% | 5.6% | 0.0% | 2.76 | 3.23 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | ROK | FCL Braves | 10 | 0 | 16 | 79 | 23 | 9 | 0 | 0% | 1.6 | 29.1% | 11.4% | 17.7% | 0.0% | 2.76 | 1.94 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 17 | 121 | 487 | 114 | 33 | 11 | 71% | 5.1 | 17.6% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 2.8% | 3.19 | 4.14 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 17 | 121 | 487 | 114 | 33 | 11 | 71% | 5.1 | 23.4% | 6.8% | 16.6% | 2.3% | 3.19 | 3.22 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ | Rome Braves | 31 | 7 | 85 | 366 | 75 | 36 | 11 | 23% | 2.7 | 15.8% | 11.3% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.89 | 5.18 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ | Rome Braves | 31 | 7 | 85 | 366 | 75 | 36 | 11 | 23% | 2.7 | 20.5% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 3.0% | 4.89 | 4.29 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Mississippi Braves | 8 | 8 | 40 | 166 | 36 | 14 | 3 | 100% | 5.0 | 17.6% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 2.7% | 4.02 | 4.26 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Mississippi Braves | 8 | 8 | 40 | 166 | 36 | 14 | 3 | 100% | 5.0 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 13.3% | 1.8% | 4.02 | 3.32 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 1 | 13 | 55 | 15 | 9 | 1 | 17% | 2.1 | 27.3% | 16.4% | 10.9% | 1.8% | 6.39 | 3.87 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 1 | 13 | 55 | 15 | 9 | 1 | 17% | 2.1 | 27.3% | 16.4% | 10.9% | 1.8% | 6.39 | 3.89 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | ATL | 29 | 0 | 30 | 128 | 28 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.7% | 9.4% | 12.2% | 3.0% | 4.49 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | ATL | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 26 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.6% | 9.6% | 12.0% | 3.1% | 4.55 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | ATL | 9 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.6% | 9.6% | 12.0% | 3.1% | 4.55 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 8 | 0 | 9 | 37 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 9.6% | 12.0% | 3.1% | 4.55 | 4.22 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 183 | 91 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 9.6% | 12.0% | 3.1% | 4.55 | 4.22 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 79 | 33 | 275 | 1153 | 203 | 116 | 32 | 42% | 3.5 | 17.6% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 2.8% | 3.96 | 4.41 | +3.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 57 | 24 | 200 | 838 | 147 | 84 | 23 | 42% | 3.5 | 17.6% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 2.8% | 3.96 | 4.41 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| J.J. Niekro (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.49 | 21.7% | 9.4% | 3.0% | — | 4.60 | 21.6% | 12.0% | 29 | +0.11 | — | — | — |
| Esmil Rogers R 2027 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 76 |
| Sam Lewis R 2025 · 3.43 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.43 | 21.0% | 10.8% | 1.3% | .246 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.10 | 224 | 75 |
| Edwin Quirarte R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.59 | 16.7% | 6.2% | 2.0% | .311 | 3.45 | 12.7% | 4.9% | 83 | -0.14 | 3.21 | 157 | 75 |
| Nelson Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.72 | 19.2% | 8.2% | 4.0% | .311 | 5.88 | 16.9% | 4.6% | 74 | +1.16 | 3.33 | 258 | 73 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.14 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.3% | .348 | 3.66 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.48 | 2.38 | 160 | 72 |
| Casey Sadler R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.90 | 16.0% | 7.8% | 2.1% | .298 | 3.37 | 23.2% | 16.5% | 145 | -0.53 | 2.22 | 385 | 71 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.88 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.28 | 3.25 | 221 | 70 |
| Bud Norris R 2028 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 70 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.90 | 16.7% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .243 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 167 | 70 |
| Alfonso Sanchez R 2026 · 5.49 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.49 | 15.9% | 7.4% | 5.1% | .244 | 5.53 | 11.2% | 2.3% | 115 | +0.04 | 4.54 | 224 | 70 |
| Josh Roeder R 2024 · 4.75 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.75 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 175 | 69 |
| Ramon Delgado R 2027 · 4.73 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.73 | 13.8% | 5.9% | 3.7% | .332 | 4.45 | 11.2% | 7.2% | 74 | -0.28 | 4.45 | 135 | 69 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 69 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2029 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.02 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.39 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.63 | 3.19 | 485 | 69 |
| Preston Johnson R 2024 · 3.47 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 146 | 68 |
| Austin Bergner R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 19.1% | 11.3% | 2.0% | .278 | 6.71 | 16.4% | 2.4% | 16 | +2.71 | 4.00 | 464 | 68 |
| Nolan Sanburn R 2024 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.25 | 15.0% | 10.4% | 2.0% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 169 | 68 |
| Chris Bassitt R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.00 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 2.1% | .313 | 3.74 | 21.7% | 14.1% | 336 | -0.26 | 3.02 | 1,507 | 67 |
| Asher Wojciechowski R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.02 | 23.4% | 6.5% | 3.8% | .299 | 4.94 | 21.5% | 13.1% | 323 | +0.92 | 3.19 | 678 | 67 |
| Tiago Da Silva R 2028 · 3.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.30 | 19.6% | 4.5% | 2.4% | .278 | 2.36 | 21.4% | 18.5% | 98 | -0.94 | 2.11 | 287 | 67 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 30 | 21.6% | 9.5% | 1.19 | 4.52 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |