Josh Bostick

P Eugene Emeralds

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 226 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.8 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#672ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	ASF	26	23	107	4.78	3.41	26.0%	9.5%	—	K 19.3% · BB 11.2% · FIP 4.65
2025	23	A+SF	24	23	119	3.71	4.04	28.2%	7.9%	—	K 21.7% · BB 9.1% · FIP 5.40
2027PROJ	25	MLBSF	1	1	1	4.76	4.76	22.3%	10.1%	0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBSF	8	8	50	4.55	4.54	22.5%	9.8%	0.4
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBSF	11	11	67	4.54	4.55	22.4%	9.8%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2

CompsRiley Gowens (age 24) · Rorik Maltrud (age 24) · Alex Pham (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124115vR 107

ERA4.76

FIP4.76

K%22.3%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%12.1%

Proj IP139

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 139 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$17M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Orange	4	2	5	21	7	2	0	50%	1.2	33.3%	9.5%	23.8%	0.0%	3.86	1.49	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	ACL Giants Orange	4	2	5	21	7	2	0	50%	1.2	33.3%	9.5%	23.8%	0.0%	3.86	1.39	—
2024	22	A MLE	San Jose Giants	26	23	107	465	121	44	11	88%	4.1	19.3%	11.2%	8.1%	3.2%	4.78	4.65	—
2024	22	A MLE	San Jose Giants	26	23	107	465	121	44	11	88%	4.1	19.3%	11.2%	8.1%	3.2%	4.78	4.65	—
2024	22	A RAW	San Jose Giants	26	23	107	465	121	44	11	88%	4.1	26.0%	9.5%	16.6%	2.4%	4.78	3.41	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	24	23	119	493	139	39	21	96%	5.0	21.7%	9.1%	12.6%	5.4%	3.71	5.40	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	24	23	119	493	139	39	21	96%	5.0	21.7%	9.1%	12.6%	5.4%	3.71	5.40	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Eugene Emeralds	24	23	119	493	139	39	21	96%	5.0	28.2%	7.9%	20.3%	4.3%	3.71	4.04	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	SF	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	22.3%	10.1%	12.1%	3.4%	4.76	4.76	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	SF	20	20	117	494	111	49	17	100%	5.8	22.5%	9.8%	12.6%	3.4%	4.69	4.68	+1.0
2029	27	MLB MLE	SF	18	18	106	450	101	44	15	100%	5.9	22.4%	9.8%	12.7%	3.4%	4.68	4.69	+0.9
2030	28	MLB MLE	SF	17	17	99	420	93	41	15	100%	5.8	22.3%	9.8%	12.5%	3.5%	4.71	4.75	+0.7
2031	29	MLB MLE	SF	15	15	92	388	86	39	14	100%	6.1	22.0%	10.0%	12.0%	3.6%	4.80	4.87	+0.6
2032	30	MLB MLE	SF	14	14	83	351	76	36	13	100%	5.9	21.7%	10.3%	11.4%	3.8%	4.95	5.05	+0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	SF	8	8	50	211	47	21	7	100%	6.2	22.5%	9.8%	12.6%	3.1%	4.55	4.54	+0.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	SF	11	11	67	283	63	28	9	100%	6.1	22.4%	9.8%	12.7%	3.1%	4.54	4.55	+0.5
2030	28	MLB CTX	SF	12	12	75	317	71	31	10	100%	6.2	22.3%	9.8%	12.5%	3.2%	4.57	4.61	+0.6
2031	29	MLB CTX	SF	12	12	75	317	70	32	11	100%	6.2	22.0%	10.0%	12.0%	3.3%	4.65	4.72	+0.5
2032	30	MLB CTX	SF	12	12	71	300	65	31	11	100%	5.9	21.7%	10.3%	11.4%	3.5%	4.79	4.89	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		56	56	338	1428	316	142	47	100%	6.0	22.2%	9.9%	12.2%	3.3%	4.63	4.29	+4.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	187	84	28	100%	6.0	22.2%	9.9%	12.2%	3.3%	4.63	4.29	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		54	48	231	979	204	99	42	89%	4.3	20.8%	10.1%	10.7%	4.3%	4.21	4.96	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	42	200	848	176	86	36	89%	4.3	20.8%	10.1%	10.7%	4.3%	4.21	4.96	+1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 A+Eugene Emeralds · 119 IPFIP 4.06 → 5.40 (+1.34)K% 28.2% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.19%	—	×0.770	21.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.91%	—	×1.150	9.10%
HR / BF /BF	4.26%	÷0.980	×1.250	5.43%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 96).

Result: FIP 4.06 → 5.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ASan Jose Giants · 107 IPFIP 3.40 → 4.65 (+1.25)K% 26.0% → 19.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.02%	—	×0.740	19.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.46%	—	×1.180	11.17%
HR / BF /BF	2.37%	÷0.959	×1.300	3.21%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 3.40 → 4.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Giants Orange · 5 IPFIP 1.49 → 2.69 (+1.20)K% 33.3% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.680	22.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.52%	—	×1.250	11.90%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.377	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 175).

Result: FIP 1.49 → 2.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Josh Bostick (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.4%	—	4.70	22.4%	12.6%	323	-0.06	—	—	—
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	87
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	84
Alex Pham R 2024 · 4.09 FIP	24	SP	4.09	22.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.284	3.85	23.2%	11.3%	100	-0.24	3.73	352	82
Isaac Coffey R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	24.3%	11.4%	2.1%	.280	5.77	18.5%	6.9%	56	+2.10	3.67	287	82
Austin Love R 2022 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP	4.34	20.6%	10.6%	3.0%	.358	3.58	22.1%	9.7%	56	-0.76	3.58	240	82
Roman Angelo R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP	3.99	22.6%	11.4%	2.5%	.291	5.72	18.6%	5.2%	169	+1.73	3.99	290	82
Mike Clevinger R 2016 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	22.1%	10.7%	2.6%	.290	3.19	28.1%	19.0%	482	-0.83	2.28	1,236	82
Mason Black R 2024 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP	4.73	19.7%	9.3%	3.9%	.304	5.29	17.0%	7.1%	213	+0.56	3.95	569	81
Jack Wenninger R 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP-	4.33	20.9%	9.3%	3.3%	.309	4.29	21.1%	11.1%	251	-0.04	3.90	366	81
Trevor Martin R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	20.6%	8.1%	3.3%	.296	4.16	19.9%	9.6%	121	-0.05	3.94	353	81
Nolan McLean R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	20.0%	10.1%	3.1%	.292	3.26	25.6%	16.0%	341	-1.14	3.17	451	81
Nic Swanson R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	25	SP	4.91	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.286	5.43	19.9%	6.5%	132	+0.52	4.29	438	81
Félix Peña R 2015 · 3.73 FIP	25	SP	3.73	21.0%	9.8%	2.1%	.296	3.83	24.0%	15.6%	263	+0.10	2.79	615	81
Justin Armbruester R 2024 · 5.73 FIP	25	SP	5.73	20.2%	11.1%	5.3%	.289	1.49	27.5%	21.9%	15	-4.24	1.49	373	80
Luke Russo R 2024 · 3.74 FIP	23	SP	3.74	21.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.326	5.00	19.6%	8.8%	159	+1.26	3.74	260	80
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	80
Will Warren R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	25	SP	4.26	24.5%	7.6%	4.1%	.344	3.77	23.7%	15.2%	318	-0.49	3.72	709	79
Jaime Schultz R 2016 · 3.67 FIP	25	SP	3.67	25.9%	12.9%	2.1%	.326	3.88	28.2%	15.6%	126	+0.21	2.19	391	79
Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP	4.96	23.2%	13.6%	3.8%	.242	5.00	27.8%	20.2%	40	+0.04	4.96	159	79
Brady Feigl R 2021 · 5.26 FIP	25	SP	5.26	19.4%	9.6%	4.7%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	257	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.2	106	22.2%	10.0%	1.35	4.76
John Maine ('13)	3.0	99	19.5%	10.5%	1.23	4.45
Ken Kravec ('75-'82, 5 WAR*)	4.3	123	23.6%*	10.7%*	1.11*	4.73*
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	106	20.5%	9.7%	1.30	4.61
John Patterson ('07)	2.3	76	21.2%	9.1%	1.19	4.32
Jeff Robinson ('87-'92, 0 WAR*)	3.5	118	18.3%*	10.9%*	1.38*	5.14*
Bill Stoneman ('67-'74, 7 WAR*)	6.2	155	22.8%*	11.1%*	1.25*	4.75*