Luke Russo

P Reading Fightin Phils

Age 26 RHP 6'4" / 199 lbs AA peak 0.3 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	22	20	101	4.35	2.74	29.0%	9.5%	—	K 21.7% · BB 11.1% · FIP 3.74
2025	24	MIX2 levels	10	3	38	3.35	3.07	27.5%	10.0%	—	K 21.5% · BB 11.2% · FIP 3.92
2026	25	AAPHI	25	23	121	4.30	4.46	23.5%	9.7%	—	K 19.0% · BB 10.6% · FIP 5.33
2027PROJ	26	MLBPHI	1	1	1	5.10	5.10	19.7%	10.7%	0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBPHI	6	6	33	5.04	5.06	19.9%	10.4%	0.1
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBPHI	8	8	47	5.04	5.08	19.9%	10.4%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 2.3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 89%

CompsAlejandro Martinez (age 26) · Rorik Maltrud (age 24) · Britt Reames (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.10

FIP5.10

K%19.7%

BB%10.7%

K-BB%9.0%

Proj IP66

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	20	101	431	125	41	7	91%	4.6	21.7%	11.1%	10.6%	1.9%	4.35	3.74	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	20	101	431	125	41	7	91%	4.6	21.7%	11.1%	10.6%	1.9%	4.35	3.74	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	20	101	431	125	41	7	91%	4.6	29.0%	9.5%	19.5%	1.6%	4.35	2.74	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	3	38	160	44	16	3	30%	3.8	21.5%	11.2%	10.2%	2.2%	3.35	3.92	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	3	38	160	44	16	3	30%	3.8	21.5%	11.2%	10.2%	2.2%	3.35	3.92	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	3	38	160	44	16	3	30%	3.8	27.5%	10.0%	17.5%	1.9%	3.35	3.07	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	25	23	121	528	124	51	20	92%	4.9	19.0%	10.6%	8.4%	4.5%	4.30	5.33	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	25	23	121	528	124	51	20	92%	4.9	19.0%	10.6%	8.4%	4.5%	4.30	5.33	—
2026	25	AA RAW	Reading Fightin Phils	25	23	121	528	124	51	20	92%	4.9	23.5%	9.7%	13.8%	3.8%	4.30	4.46	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	PHI	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	19.7%	10.7%	9.0%	3.5%	5.10	5.10	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	PHI	15	15	87	369	73	38	13	100%	5.8	19.9%	10.4%	9.4%	3.5%	5.04	5.06	+0.3
2029	28	MLB MLE	PHI	13	13	78	331	66	34	12	100%	6.0	19.9%	10.4%	9.5%	3.6%	5.04	5.08	+0.3
2030	29	MLB MLE	PHI	12	12	72	303	60	32	11	100%	6.0	19.8%	10.5%	9.3%	3.7%	5.10	5.17	+0.2
2031	30	MLB MLE	PHI	11	11	65	273	53	29	11	100%	5.9	19.5%	10.7%	8.8%	3.9%	5.22	5.32	+0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	PHI	6	6	33	139	28	15	5	100%	5.5	19.9%	10.4%	9.4%	3.5%	5.04	5.06	+0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	PHI	8	8	47	198	39	21	7	100%	5.9	19.9%	10.4%	9.5%	3.6%	5.04	5.08	+0.2
2030	29	MLB CTX	PHI	8	8	51	215	43	23	8	100%	6.4	19.8%	10.5%	9.3%	3.7%	5.10	5.17	+0.1
2031	30	MLB CTX	PHI	8	8	51	215	42	23	8	100%	6.4	19.5%	10.7%	8.8%	3.9%	5.22	5.32	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		30	30	181	764	151	80	28	100%	6.0	19.7%	10.5%	9.2%	3.7%	5.11	4.79	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	167	88	31	100%	6.0	19.7%	10.5%	9.2%	3.7%	5.11	4.79	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		57	46	260	1119	228	122	36	81%	4.6	20.4%	10.9%	9.5%	3.2%	4.18	4.52	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	35	200	860	175	94	28	81%	4.6	20.4%	10.9%	9.5%	3.2%	4.18	4.52	+0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAReading Fightin Phils · 121 IPFIP 4.42 → 5.33 (+0.91)K% 23.5% → 19.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.48%	—	×0.810	19.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.66%	—	×1.100	10.63%
HR / BF /BF	3.79%	÷1.000	×1.200	4.55%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.42 → 5.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 24 IPFIP 1.91 → 2.83 (+0.92)K% 33.3% → 25.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.770	25.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×1.150	9.58%
HR / BF /BF	1.04%	÷1.045	×1.250	1.25%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 109).

Result: FIP 1.91 → 2.83, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAReading Fightin Phils · 14 IPFIP 4.82 → 5.55 (+0.73)K% 18.8% → 15.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.75%	—	×0.810	15.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.50%	—	×1.100	13.75%
HR / BF /BF	3.12%	÷1.036	×1.200	3.62%

Result: FIP 4.82 → 5.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AClearwater Threshers · 67 IPFIP 2.81 → 3.86 (+1.05)K% 30.0% → 22.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.03%	—	×0.740	22.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.87%	—	×1.180	10.47%
HR / BF /BF	2.05%	÷1.115	×1.300	2.39%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 123).

Result: FIP 2.81 → 3.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 35 IPFIP 2.61 → 3.48 (+0.87)K% 26.8% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.81%	—	×0.770	20.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.87%	—	×1.150	12.50%
HR / BF /BF	0.72%	÷0.926	×1.250	0.98%

Result: FIP 2.61 → 3.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luke Russo (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.10	19.7%	10.7%	3.5%	—	5.10	19.8%	9.4%	238	-0.00	—	—	—
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	81
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	81
Britt Reames R 2000 · 4.49 FIP	26	SP	4.49	18.2%	12.9%	2.4%	.230	4.35	21.9%	11.5%	163	-0.14	3.76	204	81
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	81
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	80
Jake Walters R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	17.0%	9.4%	2.1%	.316	5.85	15.2%	1.3%	72	+1.82	3.51	261	79
Ramon Ramirez R 2008 · 4.31 FIP	25	SP-	4.31	20.0%	10.5%	2.9%	.200	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	182	79
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	79
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	78
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	78
Nic Swanson R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	25	SP	4.91	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.286	5.43	19.9%	6.5%	132	+0.52	4.29	438	78
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	77
Jake Bockenstedt R 2024 · 6.05 FIP	24	SP	6.05	17.0%	13.1%	5.0%	.322	4.35	16.8%	5.4%	126	-1.70	3.74	218	77
Andrew Quezada R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	26	SP-	5.33	14.4%	9.5%	4.1%	.344	4.90	12.7%	5.3%	173	-0.43	4.40	412	77
Chance Kirby R 2021 · 5.83 FIP	26	SP-	5.83	15.1%	10.0%	5.0%	.242	4.59	18.5%	11.2%	138	-1.24	4.14	325	76
Enrique Gonzalez R 2006 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP-	4.49	14.3%	7.4%	3.0%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	132	76
Hector Velázquez R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	26	SP	4.31	15.0%	8.7%	2.5%	.297	3.35	18.1%	12.8%	343	-0.96	2.75	536	76
Hayden Minton R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	23	SP	4.04	19.7%	12.3%	1.9%	.357	4.53	19.4%	10.3%	187	+0.49	4.04	280	76
Cody Sedlock R 2021 · 5.05 FIP	26	SP-	5.05	19.9%	10.9%	4.1%	.301	4.21	20.1%	7.1%	80	-0.84	4.21	378	76
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	74	19.7%	10.5%	1.41	5.09
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Phil Hennigan ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.4	70	20.9%*	10.4%*	1.50*	4.95*
José Ruiz ('25)	1.4	57	22.3%	10.4%	1.44	4.62
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*