Luke Russo
P
Reading Fightin Phils
Age 25
RHP
6'4" / 199 lbs
AA
peak 0.4 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION74 act + 35 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119110vR 101
ERA4.41
FIP4.41
K%22.4%
BB%10.2%
K-BB%12.2%
ROS IP35
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 109 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 20 | 101 | 431 | 125 | 41 | 7 | 91% | 4.6 | 21.7% | 11.1% | 10.6% | 1.8% | 4.35 | 3.67 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 20 | 101 | 431 | 125 | 41 | 7 | 91% | 4.6 | 29.0% | 9.5% | 19.5% | 1.6% | 4.35 | 2.74 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 3 | 38 | 160 | 44 | 16 | 3 | 30% | 3.8 | 21.5% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 2.1% | 3.35 | 3.87 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 3 | 38 | 160 | 44 | 16 | 3 | 30% | 3.8 | 27.5% | 10.0% | 17.5% | 1.9% | 3.35 | 3.07 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 15 | 13 | 74 | 314 | 81 | 29 | 10 | 87% | 4.9 | 20.9% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 3.8% | 4.26 | 4.72 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | PHI | 6 | 6 | 35 | 148 | 33 | 15 | 4 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 2.8% | 4.41 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | PHI | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 2.8% | 4.41 | 4.41 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 109 | 462 | 114 | 44 | 14 | — | — | 24.7% | 9.5% | 15.2% | 3.1% | 4.31 | 4.62 | +1.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 22.4% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 2.8% | 4.41 | 4.03 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | PHI | 6 | 6 | 35 | 148 | 34 | 15 | 4 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 12.6% | 2.8% | 4.38 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | PHI | 2 | 2 | 15 | 63 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 100% | 7.5 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 12.6% | 2.8% | 4.38 | 4.38 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 3 | 3 | 16 | 68 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 100% | 5.3 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 12.6% | 2.8% | 4.38 | 4.00 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 187 | 87 | 25 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 12.6% | 2.8% | 4.38 | 4.00 | +3.3 | ||
| Career | — | 47 | 36 | 213 | 905 | 194 | 98 | 23 | 77% | 4.5 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 2.6% | 4.14 | 4.07 | +3.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 34 | 200 | 850 | 182 | 92 | 22 | 77% | 4.5 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 2.6% | 4.14 | 4.07 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luke Russo (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.41 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 2.8% | — | 4.38 | 22.7% | 12.6% | 35 | -0.03 | — | — | — |
| Jake Lee R 2025 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 25.7% | 12.4% | 4.2% | .296 | 3.43 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 40 | -1.37 | 2.78 | 181 | 80 |
| Hunter Dollander R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.81 | 19.2% | 5.7% | 2.9% | .311 | 6.73 | 17.6% | -0.7% | 51 | +2.92 | 3.81 | 106 | 80 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2028 · 3.60 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.60 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 1.2% | .328 | 3.63 | 20.6% | 11.3% | 170 | +0.03 | 3.22 | 254 | 78 |
| Brett Gillis R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.37 | 20.3% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .278 | 5.10 | 15.8% | 6.7% | 73 | +1.73 | 3.37 | 119 | 77 |
| Orlando Rodriguez R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.76 | 20.8% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .380 | 4.51 | 19.3% | 7.9% | 101 | -0.25 | 4.50 | 119 | 76 |
| Stolmy Pimentel R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.28 | 16.0% | 10.5% | 2.2% | .338 | 3.79 | 13.6% | 3.1% | 72 | -0.49 | 3.79 | 143 | 75 |
| Burch Smith R 2028 · 3.94 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.94 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .234 | 4.41 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 192 | +0.47 | 3.39 | 382 | 75 |
| Ryan Jennings R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.55 | 20.4% | 10.4% | 1.6% | .286 | 5.51 | 25.3% | 9.1% | 58 | +1.96 | 3.29 | 142 | 75 |
| Dawson Netz R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 75 |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.52 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 2.8% | .279 | 5.47 | 15.6% | 5.5% | 168 | +0.95 | 4.52 | 239 | 75 |
| Carlos Sano R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.98 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.6% | .282 | 9.58 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.60 | 4.98 | 105 | 74 |
| Noah Gotsis R 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.38 | 16.5% | 6.5% | 1.5% | .296 | 4.26 | 15.9% | 8.6% | 90 | +0.88 | 3.38 | 138 | 74 |
| Jackson Nezuh R 2025 · 5.06 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.06 | 23.6% | 10.4% | 4.8% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 258 | 74 |
| Dylan Burns R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.06 | 17.1% | 10.8% | 1.9% | .300 | 4.86 | 11.6% | -2.4% | 41 | +0.80 | 4.06 | 120 | 74 |
| Brett Daniels R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.55 | 22.3% | 13.0% | 3.1% | .357 | 4.75 | 18.9% | 2.6% | 77 | +0.20 | 3.98 | 270 | 73 |
| Matt Ager R 2024 · 5.00 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.00 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.00 | 146 | 73 |
| Blair Henley R 2025 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 20.8% | 12.2% | 3.5% | .450 | 4.58 | 17.9% | 4.8% | 170 | -0.22 | 3.80 | 187 | 73 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.24 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .393 | 4.44 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.20 | 4.24 | 166 | 73 |
| Landon Knack R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.39 | 23.0% | 10.5% | 3.5% | .335 | 4.65 | 21.4% | 11.7% | 382 | +0.26 | 3.67 | 509 | 73 |
| Justin Topa R 2028 · 4.05 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.05 | 15.1% | 7.9% | 2.2% | .374 | 2.66 | 19.2% | 12.6% | 40 | -1.39 | 2.66 | 259 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 35 | 22.5% | 10.1% | 1.08 | 4.39 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |