Luke Russo — OGILVIE

Luke Russo P Reading Fightin Phils

Age 25 RHP 6'4" / 199 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.2 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 35 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.59

FIP4.59

K%21.4%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%10.5%

ROS IP35

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-1	$0.6M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$1M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	20	101	431	125	41	7	91%	4.6	21.7%	11.1%	10.6%	1.9%	4.35	3.74	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	20	101	431	125	41	7	91%	4.6	21.7%	11.1%	10.6%	1.9%	4.35	3.74	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	20	101	431	125	41	7	91%	4.6	29.0%	9.5%	19.5%	1.6%	4.35	2.74	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	3	38	160	44	16	3	30%	3.8	21.5%	11.2%	10.2%	2.2%	3.35	3.92	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	3	38	160	44	16	3	30%	3.8	21.5%	11.2%	10.2%	2.2%	3.35	3.92	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	3	38	160	44	16	3	30%	3.8	27.5%	10.0%	17.5%	1.9%	3.35	3.07	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	25	23	121	528	124	51	20	92%	4.9	19.0%	10.6%	8.4%	4.5%	4.30	5.33	—
YTD	25	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	25	23	121	528	124	51	20	92%	4.9	19.0%	10.6%	8.4%	4.5%	4.30	5.33	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AA RAW	PHI	25	23	121	528	124	51	20	92%	4.9	23.5%	9.7%	13.8%	3.8%	4.30	4.42	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	PHI	20	20	119	502	109	53	14	100%	5.9	21.7%	10.6%	11.1%	2.8%	4.55	4.54	+0.5
2028	27	MLB MLE	PHI	20	20	117	494	107	52	14	100%	5.8	21.7%	10.4%	11.2%	2.9%	4.54	4.55	+0.5
2029	28	MLB MLE	PHI	19	19	114	479	103	50	14	100%	6.0	21.6%	10.4%	11.1%	3.0%	4.58	4.62	+0.4
2030	29	MLB MLE	PHI	18	18	108	458	98	49	14	100%	6.0	21.3%	10.6%	10.7%	3.1%	4.67	4.74	+0.2
2031	30	MLB MLE	PHI	17	17	102	430	90	47	14	100%	6.0	21.0%	10.9%	10.1%	3.3%	4.82	4.92	-0.0
2032	31	MLB MLE	PHI	16	16	95	401	83	45	14	100%	5.9	20.6%	11.3%	9.3%	3.6%	5.00	5.12	-0.2
2027	26	MLB CTX	PHI	9	9	52	220	48	23	7	100%	5.8	21.7%	10.6%	11.1%	3.0%	4.66	4.65	+0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	PHI	12	12	74	312	68	33	10	100%	6.2	21.7%	10.4%	11.2%	3.1%	4.65	4.66	+0.3
2029	28	MLB CTX	PHI	14	14	86	363	78	38	12	100%	6.1	21.6%	10.4%	11.1%	3.2%	4.70	4.74	+0.3
2030	29	MLB CTX	PHI	15	15	88	372	79	39	13	100%	5.9	21.3%	10.6%	10.7%	3.4%	4.79	4.86	+0.2
2031	30	MLB CTX	PHI	14	14	87	367	77	40	13	100%	6.2	21.0%	10.9%	10.1%	3.6%	4.95	5.05	-0.0
2032	31	MLB CTX	PHI	14	14	84	355	73	40	14	100%	6.0	20.6%	11.3%	9.3%	3.8%	5.14	5.26	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		79	79	472	1994	424	214	67	100%	6.0	21.3%	10.7%	10.6%	3.4%	4.83	4.51	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	180	91	28	100%	6.0	21.3%	10.7%	10.6%	3.4%	4.83	4.51	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		57	46	260	1119	228	122	36	81%	4.6	20.4%	10.9%	9.5%	3.2%	4.18	4.52	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	35	200	860	175	94	28	81%	4.6	20.4%	10.9%	9.5%	3.2%	4.18	4.52	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luke Russo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.59	21.4%	10.9%	2.8%	—	4.57	21.7%	11.2%	349	-0.02	—	—	—
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	83
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	82
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	81
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.34	22.5%	9.8%	109	+0.91	3.43	142	81
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	80
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.26	15.3%	5.8%	168	+0.83	4.43	239	80
Burch Smith R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	27	SP	3.93	19.5%	12.6%	1.6%	.234	4.43	22.2%	10.5%	192	+0.50	3.50	382	79
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	79
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	78
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	78
Stolmy Pimentel R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	16.0%	10.5%	2.5%	.338	3.87	13.6%	3.1%	72	-0.60	3.87	143	78
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	77
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	77
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	77
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	76
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	76
Andrew Politi R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP-	5.21	21.0%	12.2%	4.3%	.320	4.07	22.5%	13.4%	138	-1.14	3.38	292	75
Landon Knack R 2022 · 4.38 FIP	25	SP	4.38	23.0%	10.5%	3.4%	.335	4.44	20.8%	11.9%	382	+0.06	2.77	544	75
Brett Daniels R 2021 · 4.67 FIP	25	SP-	4.67	22.3%	13.0%	3.3%	.357	4.70	18.8%	3.1%	77	+0.03	3.95	270	75
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.4	99	21.4%	10.7%	1.19	4.68
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77