Patrick Reilly — OGILVIE

Patrick Reilly P Chesapeake Baysox

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 208 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.0 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION47 act + 12 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.88

FIP4.88

K%23.8%

BB%13.4%

K-BB%10.4%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$0M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF—50

CTRL—40

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$3M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$2M		$4M	+$0.7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	9	0	11	47	19	8	2	0%	1.2	40.4%	17.0%	23.4%	4.3%	5.91	4.18	—
2023	21	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	9	0	11	47	19	8	2	0%	1.2	40.4%	17.0%	23.4%	4.3%	5.91	4.18	—
2023	21	A RAW	Bradenton Marauders	9	0	11	47	19	8	2	0%	1.2	40.4%	17.0%	23.4%	4.3%	5.91	4.22	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	119	491	146	59	17	93%	4.4	23.2%	13.6%	9.6%	3.8%	3.47	4.96	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	119	491	146	59	17	93%	4.4	23.2%	13.6%	9.6%	3.8%	3.47	4.96	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	25	119	491	146	59	17	93%	4.4	29.7%	12.0%	17.7%	3.5%	3.47	3.99	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	3	3	10	37	8	4	0	100%	3.2	21.6%	10.8%	10.8%	0.0%	1.86	2.64	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	3	3	10	37	8	4	0	100%	3.2	21.6%	10.8%	10.8%	0.0%	1.86	2.64	—
2025	23	AA RAW	Chesapeake Baysox	3	3	10	37	8	4	0	100%	3.2	21.6%	10.8%	10.8%	0.0%	1.86	2.69	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	12	12	47	208	63	24	12	100%	3.9	28.0%	8.7%	19.3%	6.9%	5.51	5.63	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	12	12	47	208	63	24	12	100%	3.9	28.0%	8.7%	19.3%	6.9%	5.51	5.63	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	ROK RAW	BAL	3	3	6	33	8	9	2	100%	1.9	24.2%	27.3%	-3.0%	6.1%	12.71	7.83	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	BAL	2	2	8	36	7	4	2	100%	3.9	19.4%	11.1%	8.3%	5.6%	7.04	5.91	—
2026	24	AA RAW	BAL	7	7	34	139	48	11	8	100%	4.9	34.5%	7.9%	26.6%	5.8%	3.97	4.35	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	BAL	2	2	12	50	12	7	2	100%	5.9	23.8%	13.4%	10.4%	3.1%	4.88	4.88	+0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	BAL	—	—	59	258	75	31	14	—	—	29.0%	11.9%	17.1%	5.3%	5.39	5.48	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	BAL	24	24	141	595	143	71	18	100%	5.9	24.0%	11.9%	12.1%	3.1%	4.72	4.66	+0.4
2028	26	MLB MLE	BAL	24	24	141	595	143	69	18	100%	5.9	24.1%	11.6%	12.5%	3.1%	4.64	4.61	+0.5
2029	27	MLB MLE	BAL	23	23	139	586	140	67	18	100%	6.0	23.9%	11.5%	12.5%	3.1%	4.62	4.63	+0.4
2030	28	MLB MLE	BAL	22	22	135	569	135	65	18	100%	6.1	23.8%	11.5%	12.3%	3.2%	4.66	4.70	+0.3
2031	29	MLB MLE	BAL	21	21	129	543	128	64	18	100%	6.1	23.5%	11.7%	11.8%	3.4%	4.76	4.83	+0.1
2032	30	MLB MLE	BAL	20	20	121	510	118	61	18	100%	6.0	23.2%	12.0%	11.2%	3.6%	4.91	5.01	-0.2
2033	31	MLB MLE	BAL	19	19	113	476	108	59	18	100%	5.9	22.8%	12.4%	10.4%	3.8%	5.09	5.21	-0.4
2027	25	MLB CTX	BAL	11	11	62	262	63	31	8	100%	5.6	24.0%	11.9%	12.1%	3.2%	4.80	4.74	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	BAL	16	16	94	397	95	46	13	100%	5.9	24.1%	11.6%	12.5%	3.2%	4.72	4.69	+0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	BAL	18	18	108	456	109	52	15	100%	6.0	23.9%	11.5%	12.5%	3.3%	4.70	4.71	+0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	BAL	19	19	114	481	114	55	16	100%	6.0	23.8%	11.5%	12.3%	3.4%	4.74	4.78	+0.3
2031	29	MLB CTX	BAL	19	19	113	477	112	56	17	100%	5.9	23.5%	11.7%	11.8%	3.5%	4.84	4.91	+0.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	BAL	18	18	109	460	107	55	17	100%	6.1	23.2%	12.0%	11.2%	3.7%	5.00	5.10	-0.1
2033	31	MLB CTX	BAL	17	17	103	435	99	54	17	100%	6.1	22.8%	12.4%	10.4%	4.0%	5.18	5.30	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		117	117	702	2966	699	350	104	100%	6.0	23.6%	11.8%	11.8%	3.5%	4.86	4.52	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	199	100	30	100%	6.0	23.6%	11.8%	11.8%	3.5%	4.86	4.52	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		51	40	187	783	199	97	35	78%	3.7	25.4%	12.4%	13.0%	4.5%	4.04	4.98	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	43	200	837	213	104	38	78%	3.7	25.4%	12.4%	13.0%	4.5%	4.04	4.98	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Patrick Reilly (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.88	23.8%	13.4%	3.1%	—	4.63	24.0%	12.4%	421	-0.25	—	—	—
Trace Bright R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	22	SP-	4.26	26.3%	14.7%	2.8%	.297	4.83	19.2%	5.8%	313	+0.57	4.26	413	83
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.25	19.8%	10.6%	240	+0.00	4.16	350	80
Ty Madden R 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	24.0%	11.2%	3.7%	.304	4.87	20.6%	11.1%	207	+0.35	4.52	448	79
Will Warren R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	24	SP	4.11	22.3%	10.1%	2.9%	.287	4.00	23.6%	15.4%	437	-0.11	3.82	695	78
Michael Kelly R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP-	4.22	19.6%	10.9%	2.5%	.297	6.36	14.6%	-9.6%	67	+2.14	2.77	666	78
Chih-Jung Liu R 2023 · 5.16 FIP	24	SP	5.16	23.0%	13.2%	4.3%	.344	5.61	31.7%	18.3%	18	+0.45	4.41	283	77
Blade Tidwell R 2023 · 4.84 FIP	22	SP	4.84	24.5%	14.7%	3.5%	.284	4.40	19.9%	9.8%	353	-0.44	3.95	469	77
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	77
David Festa R 2023 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	24.4%	11.2%	2.2%	.341	3.75	26.7%	18.6%	209	+0.06	3.67	405	76
Nick Nastrini R 2023 · 4.03 FIP	23	SP	4.03	22.7%	11.5%	2.5%	.288	6.00	18.5%	2.7%	168	+1.97	4.03	412	76
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	76
Paxton Schultz R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	24	SP-	5.27	17.5%	12.2%	3.8%	.293	4.36	21.3%	11.3%	274	-0.91	3.90	538	76
Mason Black R 2023 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.8%	10.0%	3.6%	.284	5.15	17.4%	7.7%	331	+0.88	3.95	567	75
Spencer Arrighetti R 2023 · 3.92 FIP	23	SP-	3.92	22.2%	11.1%	2.4%	.277	4.38	24.2%	12.8%	307	+0.46	3.92	538	75
Gavin Stone R 2023 · 4.48 FIP	24	SP-	4.48	20.9%	9.3%	3.6%	.309	3.85	20.0%	13.6%	140	-0.63	2.39	485	75
Chayce McDermott R 2023 · 3.80 FIP	24	SP	3.80	25.3%	14.2%	1.9%	.228	4.19	24.8%	10.9%	205	+0.39	3.53	446	75
Carson Seymour R 2023 · 3.96 FIP	24	SP-	3.96	19.8%	10.2%	2.3%	.292	4.55	18.9%	9.6%	348	+0.59	3.39	572	75
Peter Solomon R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	24	SP-	4.71	22.6%	10.8%	3.9%	.283	5.55	17.2%	6.1%	286	+0.84	2.86	516	75
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	75
Chase Silseth R 2023 · 3.80 FIP	23	SP-	3.80	23.8%	10.8%	2.4%	.264	4.24	20.6%	8.1%	122	+0.44	3.30	332	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.3	132	23.7%	12.0%	1.27	4.78
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32