Patrick Reilly

P Chesapeake Baysox

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 208 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.6 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#525ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	27	25	119	3.47	3.99	29.7%	12.0%	—	K 23.2% · BB 13.6% · FIP 4.96
2025	23	AABAL	3	3	10	1.86	2.69	21.6%	10.8%	—	K 21.6% · BB 10.8% · FIP 2.64
2026	24	MIX3 levels	13	13	53	5.09	4.76	30.6%	10.5%	—	K 27.8% · BB 7.6% · FIP 5.00
2027PROJ	25	MLBBAL	1	1	3	4.54	4.54	26.8%	11.0%	0.0
2028PROJ32% MLB	26	MLBBAL	6	6	39	4.58	4.57	26.5%	10.6%	0.4
2029PROJ49% MLB	27	MLBBAL	9	9	56	4.58	4.59	26.2%	10.5%	0.6

Next 3 projected WAR 1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$2M2032Ext$2M2033Ext$1M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 8.2, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 86%

CompsMike Clevinger (age 25) · Isaac Coffey (age 24) · Yariel Rodríguez (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.54

FIP4.54

K%26.8%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%15.8%

Proj IP139

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 139 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$7M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.8M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	9	0	11	47	19	8	2	0%	1.2	40.4%	17.0%	23.4%	4.3%	5.91	4.18	—
2023	21	A RAW	Bradenton Marauders	9	0	11	47	19	8	2	0%	1.2	40.4%	17.0%	23.4%	4.3%	5.91	4.22	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	119	491	146	59	17	93%	4.4	23.2%	13.6%	9.6%	3.8%	3.47	4.96	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	119	491	146	59	17	93%	4.4	23.2%	13.6%	9.6%	3.8%	3.47	4.96	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	25	119	491	146	59	17	93%	4.4	29.7%	12.0%	17.7%	3.5%	3.47	3.99	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	3	3	10	37	8	4	0	100%	3.2	21.6%	10.8%	10.8%	0.0%	1.86	2.64	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	3	3	10	37	8	4	0	100%	3.2	21.6%	10.8%	10.8%	0.0%	1.86	2.64	—
2025	23	AA RAW	Chesapeake Baysox	3	3	10	37	8	4	0	100%	3.2	21.6%	10.8%	10.8%	0.0%	1.86	2.69	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	13	53	229	70	24	12	100%	4.1	27.8%	7.6%	20.3%	6.0%	5.09	5.00	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	13	53	229	70	24	12	100%	4.1	27.8%	7.6%	20.3%	6.0%	5.09	5.00	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	13	13	53	229	70	24	12	100%	4.1	30.6%	10.5%	20.1%	5.2%	5.09	4.76	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	BAL	1	1	3	13	3	1	0	100%	3.0	26.8%	11.0%	15.8%	3.5%	4.54	4.54	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	BAL	20	20	122	516	137	55	18	100%	6.1	26.5%	10.6%	15.9%	3.5%	4.49	4.48	+1.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	BAL	19	19	113	479	125	50	17	100%	6.0	26.2%	10.5%	15.7%	3.5%	4.49	4.50	+1.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	BAL	18	18	107	451	117	47	16	100%	5.9	25.9%	10.5%	15.4%	3.6%	4.54	4.58	+1.0
2031	29	MLB MLE	BAL	17	17	99	420	107	45	15	100%	5.8	25.5%	10.6%	14.9%	3.7%	4.63	4.70	+0.8
2032	30	MLB MLE	BAL	15	15	90	382	96	42	15	100%	6.0	25.2%	10.9%	14.3%	3.9%	4.78	4.87	+0.6
2033	31	MLB MLE	BAL	13	13	81	342	85	39	14	100%	6.2	24.8%	11.3%	13.5%	4.1%	4.96	5.08	+0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	BAL	6	6	39	165	44	17	6	100%	6.5	26.5%	10.6%	15.9%	3.6%	4.58	4.57	+0.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	BAL	9	9	56	236	62	25	9	100%	6.2	26.2%	10.5%	15.7%	3.6%	4.58	4.59	+0.6
2030	28	MLB CTX	BAL	11	11	66	279	72	29	10	100%	6.0	25.9%	10.5%	15.4%	3.7%	4.63	4.67	+0.6
2031	29	MLB CTX	BAL	12	12	69	291	74	31	11	100%	5.8	25.5%	10.6%	14.9%	3.9%	4.72	4.79	+0.6
2032	30	MLB CTX	BAL	11	11	68	287	72	31	12	100%	6.2	25.2%	10.9%	14.3%	4.1%	4.88	4.97	+0.4
2033	31	MLB CTX	BAL	11	11	64	270	67	30	12	100%	5.8	24.8%	11.3%	13.5%	4.3%	5.06	5.18	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	60	360	1522	390	164	59	100%	6.0	25.6%	10.7%	14.9%	3.9%	4.76	4.44	+4.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	216	91	33	100%	6.0	25.6%	10.7%	14.9%	3.9%	4.76	4.44	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		52	41	193	804	205	96	34	79%	3.7	25.5%	12.0%	13.5%	4.3%	3.97	4.82	+5.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	43	200	835	212	100	36	79%	3.7	25.5%	12.0%	13.5%	4.3%	3.97	4.82	+1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAChesapeake Baysox · 40 IPFIP 3.81 → 5.00 (+1.19)K% 34.4% → 27.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.38%	—	×0.810	27.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.88%	—	×1.100	7.56%
HR / BF /BF	5.00%	÷1.000	×1.200	6.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.81 → 5.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Frederick Keys · 8 IPFIP 5.91 → 7.27 (+1.35)K% 19.4% → 15.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.44%	—	×0.770	14.97%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.11%	—	×1.150	12.78%
HR / BF /BF	5.56%	÷1.000	×1.250	6.94%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.91 → 7.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKFCL Orioles · 6 IPFIP 7.83 → 10.68 (+2.85)K% 24.2% → 16.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.24%	—	×0.680	16.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	27.27%	—	×1.250	34.09%
HR / BF /BF	6.06%	÷1.000	×1.400	8.48%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 7.83 → 10.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAChesapeake Baysox · 10 IPFIP 2.64 → 3.13 (+0.48)K% 21.6% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.62%	—	×0.810	17.51%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.81%	—	×1.100	11.89%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.248	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.64 → 3.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 88 IPFIP 4.15 → 5.23 (+1.08)K% 30.2% → 23.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.17%	—	×0.770	23.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.45%	—	×1.150	13.17%
HR / BF /BF	3.91%	÷1.106	×1.250	4.42%

Result: FIP 4.15 → 5.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AABowie Baysox · 31 IPFIP 3.64 → 4.22 (+0.58)K% 28.6% → 23.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.57%	—	×0.810	23.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.53%	—	×1.100	14.89%
HR / BF /BF	2.26%	÷1.249	×1.200	2.17%

Result: FIP 3.64 → 4.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ABradenton Marauders · 11 IPFIP 4.18 → 6.25 (+2.07)K% 40.4% → 29.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.43%	—	×0.740	29.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.02%	—	×1.180	20.09%
HR / BF /BF	4.26%	÷0.971	×1.300	5.70%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 4.18 → 6.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Patrick Reilly (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.5%	—	4.52	26.2%	15.7%	342	-0.02	—	—	—
Mike Clevinger R 2016 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	22.1%	10.7%	2.6%	.290	3.19	28.1%	19.0%	482	-0.83	2.28	1,236	76
Isaac Coffey R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	24.3%	11.4%	2.1%	.280	5.77	18.5%	6.9%	56	+2.10	3.67	287	76
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	76
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	76
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	75
Alex Pham R 2024 · 4.09 FIP	24	SP	4.09	22.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.284	3.85	23.2%	11.3%	100	-0.24	3.73	352	75
Will Warren R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	25	SP	4.26	24.5%	7.6%	4.1%	.344	3.77	23.7%	15.2%	318	-0.49	3.72	709	75
Jaime Schultz R 2016 · 3.67 FIP	25	SP	3.67	25.9%	12.9%	2.1%	.326	3.88	28.2%	15.6%	126	+0.21	2.19	391	74
Ty Madden R 2024 · 5.04 FIP	24	SP-	5.04	22.7%	8.8%	5.0%	.355	4.39	19.3%	9.7%	98	-0.65	4.39	458	74
Braxton Bragg R 2024 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	22.3%	6.4%	3.0%	.325	2.58	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.12	2.58	155	73
Buck Farmer R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	25	SP-	4.29	19.5%	8.7%	3.2%	.309	3.78	20.9%	12.5%	309	-0.51	3.16	907	73
Sawyer Gipson-Long R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	25	SP	4.67	26.6%	7.6%	5.2%	.272	4.47	19.9%	12.1%	172	-0.20	3.87	512	73
Jack Wenninger R 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP-	4.33	20.9%	9.3%	3.3%	.309	4.29	21.1%	11.1%	251	-0.04	3.90	366	73
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	72
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.40	21.6%	13.7%	145	-0.31	1.85	254	72
Trevor Martin R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	20.6%	8.1%	3.3%	.296	4.16	19.9%	9.6%	121	-0.05	3.94	353	72
Jackson Nezuh R 2024 · 3.89 FIP	22	SP-	3.89	22.5%	11.2%	2.3%	.290	4.40	21.3%	10.9%	176	+0.51	3.89	296	72
Luke Russo R 2024 · 3.74 FIP	23	SP	3.74	21.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.326	5.00	19.6%	8.8%	159	+1.26	3.74	260	72
Justin Armbruester R 2024 · 5.73 FIP	25	SP	5.73	20.2%	11.1%	5.3%	.289	1.49	27.5%	21.9%	15	-4.24	1.49	373	72
Garrett Stallings R 2023 · 4.29 FIP	25	SP-	4.29	20.4%	7.9%	3.5%	.327	3.93	17.6%	10.5%	275	-0.36	3.19	627	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.8	108	26.0%	10.7%	1.41	4.61
Ken Kravec ('75-'82, 5 WAR*)	4.3	123	23.6%*	10.7%*	1.11*	4.73*
Joe Cowley ('82-'87, 3 WAR*)	2.3	117	22.7%*	11.2%*	1.55*	4.37*
Bill Stoneman ('67-'74, 7 WAR*)	6.2	155	22.8%*	11.1%*	1.25*	4.75*
Nate Karns ('19)	1.6	105	24.0%	9.3%	1.34	4.30
Tylor Megill ('25)	2.0	82	24.3%	9.1%	1.27	4.46
John Maine ('13)	3.0	99	19.5%	10.5%	1.23	4.45