Patrick Reilly
P
FCL Orioles
Age 24
RHP
6'3" / 208 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 1.0 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION9 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123114vR 105
ERA4.59
FIP4.59
K%23.8%
BB%11.4%
K-BB%12.4%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 74 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | A | Bradenton Marauders | 9 | 0 | 11 | 47 | 19 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 40.4% | 17.0% | 23.4% | 4.3% | 5.91 | 4.18 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Bradenton Marauders | 9 | 0 | 11 | 47 | 19 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 40.4% | 17.0% | 23.4% | 4.3% | 5.91 | 4.22 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 25 | 119 | 491 | 146 | 59 | 17 | 93% | 4.4 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 9.6% | 3.4% | 3.47 | 4.75 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 25 | 119 | 491 | 146 | 59 | 17 | 93% | 4.4 | 29.7% | 12.0% | 17.7% | 3.5% | 3.47 | 3.99 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Chesapeake Baysox | 3 | 3 | 10 | 37 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 3.2 | 21.6% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 0.0% | 1.86 | 2.64 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Chesapeake Baysox | 3 | 3 | 10 | 37 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 3.2 | 21.6% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 0.0% | 1.86 | 2.69 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Frederick Keys | 4 | 4 | 9 | 52 | 11 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 2.3 | — | — | — | — | 11.57 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | BAL | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 65 | 31 | 8 | 100% | 5.4 | 23.8% | 11.4% | 12.4% | 3.0% | 4.59 | 4.59 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.8% | 11.4% | 12.4% | 3.2% | 4.65 | 4.65 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 74 | 326 | 76 | 43 | 12 | — | — | 23.4% | 13.3% | 10.1% | 3.8% | 5.47 | 4.01 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | BAL | 24 | 24 | 141 | 595 | 143 | 62 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.0% | 10.4% | 13.6% | 3.0% | 4.48 | 4.44 | +1.6 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 24 | 24 | 141 | 595 | 143 | 61 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.1% | 10.2% | 13.9% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.40 | +1.6 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 23 | 23 | 139 | 586 | 140 | 60 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.9% | 10.2% | 13.8% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.43 | +1.6 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 22 | 22 | 135 | 569 | 135 | 58 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.8% | 10.2% | 13.5% | 3.2% | 4.48 | 4.51 | +1.4 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 21 | 21 | 129 | 543 | 128 | 57 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.5% | 10.5% | 13.1% | 3.3% | 4.58 | 4.64 | +1.1 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 20 | 20 | 121 | 510 | 118 | 55 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.2% | 10.8% | 12.4% | 3.5% | 4.72 | 4.82 | +0.8 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 19 | 19 | 113 | 476 | 108 | 53 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.8% | 11.1% | 11.7% | 3.7% | 4.90 | 5.02 | +0.5 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 17 | 17 | 104 | 440 | 98 | 51 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.3% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 4.0% | 5.11 | 5.25 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | BAL | 10 | 10 | 60 | 253 | 61 | 26 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.0% | 10.4% | 13.6% | 3.1% | 4.54 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 16 | 16 | 93 | 393 | 94 | 40 | 12 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.1% | 10.2% | 13.9% | 3.1% | 4.49 | 4.46 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 18 | 18 | 107 | 452 | 108 | 46 | 14 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.9% | 10.2% | 13.8% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.49 | +1.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 19 | 19 | 113 | 477 | 113 | 49 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.8% | 10.2% | 13.5% | 3.3% | 4.55 | 4.58 | +1.1 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 19 | 19 | 113 | 477 | 112 | 50 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.5% | 10.5% | 13.1% | 3.4% | 4.65 | 4.71 | +0.9 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 18 | 18 | 109 | 460 | 107 | 50 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.2% | 10.8% | 12.4% | 3.7% | 4.79 | 4.89 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 17 | 17 | 103 | 435 | 99 | 48 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.8% | 11.1% | 11.7% | 3.9% | 4.98 | 5.10 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 16 | 16 | 96 | 405 | 91 | 47 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.3% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 4.1% | 5.19 | 5.33 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 133 | 133 | 795 | 3356 | 786 | 356 | 117 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.4% | 10.6% | 12.8% | 3.5% | 4.71 | 4.39 | +9.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 198 | 90 | 29 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.4% | 10.6% | 12.8% | 3.5% | 4.71 | 4.39 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 43 | 32 | 149 | 627 | 152 | 91 | 23 | 74% | 3.5 | 24.2% | 14.5% | 9.7% | 3.6% | 4.05 | 4.89 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 58 | 43 | 200 | 842 | 204 | 122 | 31 | 74% | 3.5 | 24.2% | 14.5% | 9.7% | 3.6% | 4.05 | 4.89 | +1.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Patrick Reilly (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.59 | 23.8% | 11.4% | 3.0% | — | 4.42 | 24.0% | 13.7% | 421 | -0.17 | — | — | — |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.87 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.3% | .300 | 4.37 | 19.6% | 9.8% | 143 | +0.50 | 3.87 | 247 | 79 |
| Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2027 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 20.3% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .309 | 3.63 | 21.4% | 13.2% | 123 | -0.14 | 1.87 | 232 | 77 |
| Carson Seymour R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.11 | 19.8% | 10.2% | 2.5% | .292 | 4.64 | 19.9% | 9.2% | 315 | +0.53 | 3.28 | 538 | 76 |
| Gavin Stone R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.61 | 21.9% | 10.5% | 3.7% | .309 | 4.02 | 20.0% | 13.6% | 140 | -0.59 | 2.39 | 485 | 76 |
| Kyle Bradish R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.59 | 26.4% | 10.6% | 2.5% | .333 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 17.2% | 345 | -0.39 | 2.15 | 702 | 76 |
| Wil Jensen R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.64 | 20.2% | 8.6% | 3.9% | .261 | 4.28 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 173 | -0.36 | 3.41 | 368 | 75 |
| Michael Kelly R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.23 | 19.6% | 10.9% | 2.5% | .297 | 6.28 | 14.6% | -9.6% | 67 | +2.05 | 2.83 | 666 | 75 |
| Alex Pham R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.85 | 22.6% | 11.1% | 2.3% | .284 | 3.63 | 23.5% | 11.8% | 79 | -0.22 | 3.48 | 331 | 75 |
| Shaun Anderson R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.24 | 18.0% | 8.3% | 2.9% | .317 | 4.67 | 19.5% | 9.2% | 150 | +0.43 | 3.72 | 862 | 75 |
| Peter Solomon R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.87 | 22.6% | 10.8% | 4.2% | .283 | 5.61 | 17.7% | 5.7% | 286 | +0.74 | 2.87 | 516 | 75 |
| Will Warren R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.16 | 23.3% | 11.4% | 2.9% | .287 | 4.01 | 23.9% | 15.4% | 393 | -0.15 | 3.80 | 651 | 75 |
| Blade Tidwell R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.07 | 22.2% | 9.9% | 2.9% | .295 | 4.29 | 22.9% | 11.6% | 57 | +0.22 | 4.07 | 408 | 75 |
| Mason Black R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.83 | 20.1% | 10.4% | 3.8% | .304 | 5.34 | 18.0% | 6.5% | 170 | +0.51 | 3.81 | 527 | 75 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.37 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.37 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.01 | 3.42 | 237 | 74 |
| Isaac Coffey R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.65 | 24.3% | 11.4% | 2.1% | .280 | 6.01 | 18.9% | 5.5% | 56 | +2.36 | 3.65 | 287 | 74 |
| Yariel Rodríguez R 2029 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.80 | 25.1% | 11.8% | 2.4% | .275 | 3.77 | 24.2% | 12.3% | 89 | -0.03 | 2.60 | 196 | 74 |
| Kyle Brnovich R 2025 · 3.69 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.69 | 25.1% | 7.5% | 3.2% | .256 | 5.06 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 89 | +1.37 | 3.69 | 333 | 74 |
| Kyle Lloyd R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.50 | 18.3% | 8.1% | 3.5% | .327 | 3.81 | 17.3% | 8.9% | 324 | -0.69 | 3.46 | 572 | 74 |
| Randy Vásquez R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.26 | 22.5% | 11.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 4.68 | 15.2% | 7.7% | 357 | +0.42 | 3.06 | 728 | 74 |
| Houston Roth R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.40 | 19.3% | 11.2% | 2.7% | .306 | 4.83 | 21.2% | 8.3% | 168 | +0.43 | 3.57 | 389 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 9 | 129 | 23.5% | 10.7% | 1.27 | 4.61 |
| Julio Teheran ('23) | 7 | 147 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 1.34 | 4.12 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |
| Lance Lynn ('24) | 9 | 154 | 23.9% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 3.86 |
| Vince Velasquez ('23) | 9 | 85 | 24.9% | 9.3% | 1.48 | 4.88 |
| Danny Duffy ('21) | 7 | 124 | 21.7% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 4.04 |
| Kyle Gibson ('24) | 10 | 164 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.14 | 4.46 |