Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 19 | 106 | 437 | 96 | 20 | 19 | 83% | 4.6 | 17.1% | 5.2% | 11.9% | 4.5% | 4.67 | 4.79 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 19 | 106 | 437 | 96 | 20 | 19 | 83% | 4.6 | 22.0% | 4.6% | 17.4% | 4.3% | 4.67 | 4.18 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Bowie Baysox | 26 | 22 | 119 | 527 | 124 | 29 | 27 | 85% | 4.6 | 19.1% | 6.1% | 13.0% | 4.6% | 6.28 | 4.78 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Bowie Baysox | 26 | 22 | 119 | 527 | 124 | 29 | 27 | 85% | 4.6 | 23.5% | 5.5% | 18.0% | 5.1% | 6.28 | 4.70 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 19 | 127 | 547 | 133 | 44 | 18 | 68% | 4.5 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 12.1% | 3.3% | 5.16 | 4.24 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 19 | 127 | 547 | 133 | 44 | 18 | 68% | 4.5 | 24.3% | 8.0% | 16.3% | 3.3% | 5.16 | 3.89 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | 28 | 9 | 80 | 346 | 67 | 37 | 12 | 32% | 2.8 | 17.0% | 11.2% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.74 | 5.64 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | 28 | 9 | 80 | 346 | 67 | 37 | 12 | 32% | 2.8 | 19.4% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 3.5% | 4.74 | 4.77 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | 30 | 15 | 99 | 406 | 72 | 21 | 9 | 50% | 3.3 | 15.6% | 5.4% | 10.2% | 2.0% | 3.99 | 3.56 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | 30 | 15 | 99 | 406 | 72 | 21 | 9 | 50% | 3.3 | 17.7% | 5.2% | 12.6% | 2.2% | 3.99 | 3.46 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 19 | 12 | 67 | 285 | 64 | 23 | 3 | 63% | 3.5 | 19.3% | 8.4% | 10.8% | 1.2% | 3.51 | 3.20 | +1.2 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | MIL | 7 | 7 | 44 | 184 | 29 | 13 | 5 | 100% | 6.2 | 15.6% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 4.67 | 4.67 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | MIL | 7 | 7 | 44 | 186 | 29 | 13 | 5 | 100% | 6.3 | 15.6% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 4.67 | 4.67 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 110 | 469 | 93 | 36 | 8 | — | — | 19.8% | 7.7% | 12.1% | 1.8% | 3.97 | 3.78 | +2.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 47 | 197 | 93 | 36 | 8 | — | — | 47.1% | 18.3% | 28.8% | 4.3% | 9.39 | 3.78 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 11 | 11 | 66 | 280 | 45 | 21 | 9 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.1% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 4.71 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 10 | 10 | 62 | 263 | 43 | 21 | 9 | 100% | 6.2 | 16.3% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 3.3% | 4.81 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 10 | 10 | 63 | 266 | 43 | 20 | 8 | 100% | 6.3 | 16.1% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 4.71 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 10 | 10 | 59 | 249 | 41 | 20 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 16.3% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 3.3% | 4.81 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 30 | 28 | 169 | 710 | 116 | 54 | 22 | 93% | 5.6 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 3.1% | 4.65 | 4.36 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 33 | 200 | 842 | 138 | 64 | 26 | 93% | 5.7 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 3.1% | 4.65 | 4.36 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 154 | 96 | 598 | 2548 | 466 | 187 | 89 | 62% | 3.9 | 18.3% | 7.3% | 11.0% | 3.5% | 4.86 | 4.41 | +6.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 32 | 200 | 852 | 156 | 62 | 30 | 62% | 3.9 | 18.3% | 7.3% | 11.0% | 3.5% | 4.86 | 4.41 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Garrett Stallings (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.67 | 15.6% | 7.1% | 2.9% | — | 4.83 | 16.2% | 8.5% | 128 | +0.16 | — | — | — |
| Kris Medlen R 2027 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .261 | 5.16 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.39 | 4.66 | 261 | 79 |
| Juan Omar Espinoza R 2029 · 4.68 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.68 | 8.9% | 6.6% | 2.7% | .346 | 4.95 | 8.4% | -0.8% | 52 | +0.27 | 4.68 | 104 | 78 |
| Hector Noesí R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 77 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 77 |
| Aldo Montes R 2025 · 4.65 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.65 | 12.4% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .322 | 4.41 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 75 | -0.24 | 4.41 | 210 | 77 |
| Jacob Turner R 2025 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.69 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 76 |
| Scott McGregor R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.19 | 11.8% | 7.6% | 2.1% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 107 | 76 |
| Max Beatty R 2024 · 3.69 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.69 | 13.2% | 6.4% | 1.6% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 117 | 75 |
| Ivan Zavala R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.50 | 7.0% | 4.7% | 2.6% | .312 | 4.84 | 12.2% | 4.3% | 50 | +0.34 | 4.31 | 209 | 74 |
| Nolan Sanburn R 2024 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.25 | 15.0% | 10.4% | 2.0% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 169 | 74 |
| Colin Bates R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.59 | 10.5% | 6.5% | 2.9% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 111 | 73 |
| Jair Jurrjens R 2027 · 4.46 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.46 | 10.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .365 | 4.29 | 16.3% | 8.4% | 54 | -0.17 | 4.29 | 125 | 73 |
| Gabriel Arias R 2027 · 3.96 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.96 | 13.9% | 6.8% | 2.1% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.96 | 195 | 73 |
| Kanekoa Texeira R 2027 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.12 | 14.5% | 11.2% | 1.5% | .280 | 4.05 | 10.2% | -0.2% | 63 | -0.07 | 4.05 | 165 | 72 |
| Jason Berken R 2029 · 4.69 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.69 | 13.5% | 6.6% | 3.5% | .315 | 4.31 | 11.5% | 3.2% | 106 | -0.38 | 4.31 | 219 | 72 |
| Omar Bencomo R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 18.9% | 6.3% | 3.8% | .333 | 4.43 | 14.9% | 10.1% | 186 | +0.05 | 3.67 | 381 | 72 |
| Shawn Haviland R 2027 · 3.93 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.93 | 14.6% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .303 | 4.49 | 16.1% | 8.8% | 169 | +0.56 | 3.57 | 283 | 72 |
| Bradin Hagens R 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.85 | 14.9% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .341 | 5.33 | 13.2% | 0.6% | 66 | +0.48 | 3.78 | 254 | 72 |
| Ramon Delgado R 2027 · 4.73 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.73 | 13.8% | 5.9% | 3.7% | .332 | 4.45 | 11.2% | 7.2% | 74 | -0.28 | 4.45 | 135 | 72 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.88 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.28 | 3.25 | 221 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 58 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 1.20 | 4.73 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Chris Rusin ('18) | 4 | 89 | 17.9% | 7.1% | 1.01 | 4.43 |
| Robert Gsellman ('21) | 5 | 67 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 0.96 | 4.38 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |