Jackson Nezuh — OGILVIE

Jackson Nezuh P Corpus Christi Hooks

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 190 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.2 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION99 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.75

FIP4.75

K%19.2%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%9.3%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 105 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$0M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF3045

CTRL—50

CMD3550

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$2M		$3M	+$0.7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	16	120	502	151	48	10	59%	4.5	22.5%	11.2%	11.3%	2.3%	3.89	3.89	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	16	120	502	151	48	10	59%	4.5	22.5%	11.2%	11.3%	2.3%	3.89	3.89	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	16	120	502	151	48	10	59%	4.5	30.1%	9.6%	20.5%	2.0%	3.89	2.87	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	17	77	325	76	28	10	85%	3.8	18.6%	8.9%	9.7%	3.3%	4.34	4.47	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	17	77	325	76	28	10	85%	3.8	18.6%	8.9%	9.7%	3.3%	4.34	4.47	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	17	77	325	76	28	10	85%	3.8	23.4%	8.6%	14.8%	3.1%	4.34	3.91	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	24	19	99	426	119	47	12	79%	4.1	22.8%	11.2%	11.7%	3.4%	3.99	4.43	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	24	19	99	426	119	47	12	79%	4.1	22.8%	11.2%	11.7%	3.4%	3.99	4.43	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	HOU	14	13	66	275	80	26	11	93%	4.7	29.1%	9.5%	19.6%	4.0%	3.97	4.04	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	HOU	10	6	34	151	39	21	1	60%	3.4	25.8%	13.9%	11.9%	0.7%	4.01	3.04	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	HOU	1	1	6	24	5	2	1	100%	5.7	19.2%	9.9%	9.3%	3.0%	4.75	4.75	+0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	HOU	—	—	105	450	124	49	13	—	—	27.5%	11.0%	16.5%	2.8%	4.03	4.45	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	HOU	19	19	110	463	92	43	14	100%	5.8	19.8%	9.3%	10.5%	3.0%	4.65	4.62	+0.4
2028	26	MLB MLE	HOU	18	18	110	463	94	42	14	100%	6.1	20.2%	9.2%	11.0%	3.0%	4.59	4.57	+0.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	HOU	18	18	108	456	93	42	14	100%	6.0	20.3%	9.2%	11.1%	3.0%	4.59	4.59	+0.4
2030	28	MLB MLE	HOU	17	17	105	443	89	41	14	100%	6.2	20.2%	9.3%	10.9%	3.1%	4.63	4.67	+0.3
2031	29	MLB MLE	HOU	17	17	100	423	84	40	14	100%	5.9	20.0%	9.5%	10.5%	3.3%	4.73	4.80	+0.1
2032	30	MLB MLE	HOU	16	16	94	398	78	39	14	100%	5.9	19.6%	9.8%	9.8%	3.5%	4.88	4.98	-0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	HOU	8	8	48	203	40	19	6	100%	6.0	19.8%	9.3%	10.5%	2.9%	4.61	4.58	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	HOU	12	12	73	308	62	28	9	100%	6.1	20.2%	9.2%	11.0%	2.9%	4.55	4.53	+0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	HOU	14	14	84	355	72	32	10	100%	6.0	20.3%	9.2%	11.1%	2.9%	4.54	4.54	+0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	HOU	15	15	88	372	75	34	11	100%	5.9	20.2%	9.3%	10.9%	3.0%	4.58	4.62	+0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	HOU	15	15	88	372	74	35	12	100%	5.9	20.0%	9.5%	10.5%	3.2%	4.68	4.75	+0.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	HOU	14	14	85	359	70	35	12	100%	6.1	19.6%	9.8%	9.8%	3.4%	4.83	4.93	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		78	78	466	1970	394	185	61	100%	6.0	20.0%	9.4%	10.6%	3.1%	4.64	4.29	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	169	79	26	100%	6.0	20.0%	9.4%	10.6%	3.1%	4.64	4.29	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		71	52	296	1253	271	133	37	73%	4.2	21.6%	10.6%	11.0%	2.9%	4.04	4.22	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	35	200	846	183	89	25	73%	4.2	21.6%	10.6%	11.0%	2.9%	4.04	4.22	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jackson Nezuh (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.75	19.2%	9.9%	3.0%	—	4.59	20.1%	10.9%	328	-0.16	—	—	—
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	89
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	87
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	87
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	86
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	86
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	85
Stolmy Pimentel R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	16.0%	10.5%	2.5%	.338	3.87	13.6%	3.1%	72	-0.60	3.87	143	85
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	84
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	84
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	84
Wil Jensen R 2022 · 4.69 FIP	24	SP-	4.69	20.2%	8.6%	4.0%	.261	4.20	21.4%	11.1%	173	-0.49	3.48	368	84
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	83
Luis Santos R 2015 · 4.48 FIP	24	SP-	4.48	17.0%	6.5%	3.6%	.293	4.12	19.1%	10.5%	315	-0.36	3.53	472	83
James McArthur R 2021 · 3.81 FIP	24	SP-	3.81	19.7%	7.9%	2.5%	.310	4.14	21.6%	13.7%	194	+0.33	3.53	352	83
Angel Araiza R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	16.7%	6.5%	3.8%	.287	3.79	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.78	3.40	289	82
Nick Hull R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.84	17.7%	6.3%	200	+0.58	4.26	292	82
Paxton Schultz R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	24	SP-	5.27	17.5%	12.2%	3.8%	.293	4.36	21.3%	11.3%	274	-0.91	3.90	538	81
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	81
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	81
Drew McDaniel R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.1%	9.1%	3.0%	.323	5.08	18.7%	8.7%	152	+0.37	4.24	230	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	99	19.9%	9.4%	1.21	4.68
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Mike Minor ('22)	3.8	126	22.3%	7.2%	1.44	4.38