Jackson Nezuh
P
Corpus Christi Hooks
+0.6
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'1" / 190 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.2 · 2029
ERA4.50
FIP4.50
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.3%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%11.9%
IP88
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.2peak
2029
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | 27 | 16 | 120 | 502 | 151 | 48 | 10 | 22.5% | 11.2% | 2.3% | 3.89 | 3.90 | +1.9 |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 20 | 17 | 77 | 325 | 76 | 28 | 10 | 18.6% | 8.9% | 3.2% | 4.34 | 4.40 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 2 | 2 | 6 | 33 | 5 | 5 | 0 | — | — | — | 7.11 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | HOU | 16 | 16 | 88 | 373 | 79 | 35 | 11 | 21.3% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 4.50 | 4.50 | +0.7 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 95 | 406 | 84 | 40 | 11 | 20.8% | 9.9% | 2.7% | 4.67 | 4.20 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | HOU | 18 | 18 | 101 | 428 | 93 | 38 | 13 | 21.8% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.40 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 20 | 20 | 108 | 458 | 101 | 40 | 14 | 22.0% | 8.8% | 3.0% | 4.39 | 4.37 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 20 | 20 | 112 | 471 | 104 | 42 | 14 | 22.0% | 8.8% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.37 | +1.2 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 20 | 20 | 112 | 472 | 104 | 42 | 14 | 22.0% | 8.8% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.39 | +1.2 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 20 | 20 | 109 | 462 | 101 | 41 | 14 | 21.8% | 8.9% | 3.0% | 4.41 | 4.44 | +1.1 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 19 | 19 | 106 | 448 | 97 | 40 | 14 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 3.1% | 4.46 | 4.50 | +1.0 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 19 | 19 | 102 | 432 | 92 | 40 | 14 | 21.4% | 9.1% | 3.2% | 4.53 | 4.58 | +0.8 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 18 | 18 | 98 | 415 | 88 | 39 | 14 | 21.1% | 9.3% | 3.3% | 4.61 | 4.66 | +0.7 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 17 | 17 | 94 | 396 | 83 | 38 | 13 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 3.3% | 4.70 | 4.76 | +0.5 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | HOU | 16 | 16 | 89 | 377 | 77 | 36 | 13 | 20.5% | 9.7% | 3.4% | 4.80 | 4.87 | +0.3 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | HOU | 15 | 15 | 84 | 355 | 71 | 35 | 13 | 20.1% | 9.9% | 3.6% | 4.91 | 4.99 | +0.2 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | HOU | 14 | 14 | 79 | 332 | 72 | 31 | 12 | 21.6% | 9.3% | 3.7% | 4.88 | 4.85 | +0.2 |
| 2039 | 37 | MLB | HOU | 13 | 13 | 73 | 308 | 65 | 30 | 12 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 3.8% | 4.95 | 5.00 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 49 | 35 | 203 | 860 | 179 | 90 | 22 | 20.8% | 10.5% | 2.6% | 4.16 | 4.08 | +2.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 34 | 200 | 846 | 176 | 89 | 22 | 20.8% | 10.5% | 2.6% | 4.16 | 4.08 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jackson Nezuh (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.50 | 21.3% | 9.4% | 3.0% | — | 4.38 | 21.9% | 13.0% | 321 | -0.12 | — | — | — |
| Blake Beers R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.61 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .298 | 4.96 | 17.7% | 8.5% | 323 | +0.35 | 4.41 | 416 | 94 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .300 | 4.44 | 18.2% | 7.0% | 78 | +0.55 | 3.89 | 183 | 94 |
| Cooper Chandler R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 2.8% | .300 | 3.77 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.53 | 3.77 | 107 | 93 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.5% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.23 | 4.15 | 212 | 92 |
| Kaleb Fontenot R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.49 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 3.7% | .264 | 3.71 | 14.7% | 5.2% | 69 | -0.78 | 3.71 | 155 | 92 |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .329 | 3.95 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 118 | -0.35 | 2.58 | 199 | 91 |
| Emmanuel Chapman R 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.03 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.80 | 18.2% | 4.1% | 73 | -0.23 | 3.80 | 154 | 90 |
| Emerson Hancock R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.1% | 10.2% | 3.1% | .288 | 4.37 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 313 | +0.06 | 2.50 | 554 | 90 |
| T.J. Weir R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.98 | 20.0% | 9.1% | 2.6% | .319 | 3.42 | 19.0% | 9.6% | 190 | -0.56 | 3.15 | 349 | 89 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .331 | 5.58 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.73 | 3.85 | 141 | 89 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.40 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 2.8% | .277 | 3.52 | 21.8% | 12.7% | 44 | -0.88 | 3.52 | 128 | 89 |
| Yaisel Sierra R 2027 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.32 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .338 | 3.05 | 22.4% | 12.3% | 71 | -1.27 | 3.05 | 176 | 88 |
| Riley Thompson R 2025 · 4.66 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.66 | 16.5% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .288 | 5.32 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 57 | +0.66 | 4.63 | 340 | 88 |
| Aaron Brown R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.08 | 19.8% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .337 | 5.97 | 17.2% | 8.4% | 186 | +1.89 | 4.08 | 418 | 88 |
| Austin Cates R 2024 · 3.95 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.95 | 19.7% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 110 | 88 |
| Wil Jensen R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.66 | 20.2% | 8.6% | 4.0% | .261 | 4.22 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 173 | -0.44 | 3.50 | 368 | 87 |
| Carlos Sano R 2027 · 4.88 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.88 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.4% | .282 | 9.12 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.24 | 4.88 | 105 | 87 |
| Hayden Minton R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.21 | 19.1% | 7.0% | 3.3% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 194 | 87 |
| Nick Hull R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.58 | 19.0% | 12.2% | 2.8% | .296 | 5.08 | 18.4% | 6.8% | 57 | +0.50 | 4.27 | 238 | 87 |
| Garrett Edwards R 2025 · 3.86 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.86 | 18.5% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 107 | 87 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.2 | $10M | +$10M |
| 2030 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +1.2 | $11M | +$10M |
| 2031 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +1.1 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2032 | Arb-1 | $2M | +1.0 | $10M | +$8M |
| 2033 | Arb-2 | $2M | +0.8 | $4M | +$2M |
| 2034 | Arb-3 | $3M | +0.7 | $4M | +$0.5M |
| Totals | $10M | $49M | +$39M | ||