Jackson Nezuh
P
Corpus Christi Hooks
Age 24
RHP
6'1" / 190 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.8 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION66 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125116vR 107
ERA4.68
FIP4.68
K%19.2%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%9.6%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 131 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 16 | 120 | 502 | 151 | 48 | 10 | 59% | 4.5 | 22.5% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 2.1% | 3.89 | 3.77 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 16 | 120 | 502 | 151 | 48 | 10 | 59% | 4.5 | 30.1% | 9.6% | 20.5% | 2.0% | 3.89 | 2.87 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 17 | 77 | 325 | 76 | 28 | 10 | 85% | 3.8 | 18.6% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 3.1% | 4.34 | 4.38 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 17 | 77 | 325 | 76 | 28 | 10 | 85% | 3.8 | 23.4% | 8.6% | 14.8% | 3.1% | 4.34 | 3.91 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 14 | 13 | 66 | 275 | 80 | 26 | 11 | 93% | 4.7 | 23.6% | 10.4% | 13.2% | 4.8% | 3.97 | 5.06 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | HOU | 12 | 12 | 65 | 276 | 53 | 26 | 8 | 100% | 5.5 | 19.2% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 2.9% | 4.68 | 4.68 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | HOU | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 19.2% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.73 | 4.73 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 131 | 551 | 133 | 52 | 19 | — | — | 24.1% | 9.5% | 14.6% | 3.5% | 4.33 | 4.87 | +0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 19.2% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.73 | 4.34 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | HOU | 12 | 12 | 68 | 287 | 57 | 26 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 20.0% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 2.9% | 4.59 | 4.56 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 59 | 26 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.4% | 9.2% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 4.54 | 4.52 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 11 | 11 | 67 | 283 | 58 | 26 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.6% | 9.2% | 11.3% | 3.0% | 4.54 | 4.55 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 56 | 26 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.5% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 3.1% | 4.59 | 4.63 | +0.0 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 10 | 10 | 62 | 262 | 53 | 25 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.3% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 3.2% | 4.69 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 10 | 10 | 58 | 247 | 49 | 24 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.9% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 3.4% | 4.84 | 4.93 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | HOU | 5 | 5 | 30 | 127 | 25 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.0% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 3.0% | 4.64 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 8 | 8 | 45 | 190 | 39 | 17 | 6 | 100% | 5.6 | 20.4% | 9.2% | 11.3% | 3.0% | 4.59 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 9 | 9 | 52 | 220 | 45 | 20 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.6% | 9.2% | 11.3% | 3.1% | 4.59 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 9 | 9 | 55 | 232 | 48 | 22 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.5% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 3.2% | 4.64 | 4.68 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 9 | 9 | 54 | 228 | 46 | 22 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.3% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 3.3% | 4.74 | 4.81 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 9 | 9 | 53 | 224 | 45 | 22 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.9% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 3.5% | 4.90 | 4.99 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 49 | 49 | 290 | 1226 | 249 | 116 | 39 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.3% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 3.2% | 4.69 | 4.34 | +3.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 172 | 80 | 27 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.3% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 3.2% | 4.69 | 4.34 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 61 | 46 | 263 | 1102 | 238 | 114 | 34 | 75% | 4.3 | 21.6% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 3.1% | 4.04 | 4.27 | +3.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 35 | 200 | 839 | 182 | 87 | 26 | 75% | 4.3 | 21.6% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 3.1% | 4.04 | 4.27 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jackson Nezuh (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.68 | 19.2% | 9.5% | 2.9% | — | 4.54 | 20.3% | 11.1% | 203 | -0.14 | — | — | — |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.24 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.6% | .329 | 4.33 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 132 | +0.09 | 2.63 | 213 | 90 |
| Ricky Castro R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.93 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .287 | 4.58 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 140 | +0.65 | 3.90 | 202 | 89 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.37 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.37 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.01 | 3.42 | 237 | 88 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.87 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.3% | .300 | 4.37 | 19.6% | 9.8% | 143 | +0.50 | 3.87 | 247 | 87 |
| Nick Payero R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.06 | 16.5% | 6.3% | 2.8% | .285 | 5.72 | 16.6% | 4.6% | 107 | +1.66 | 4.06 | 178 | 85 |
| Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.0% | 6.5% | 3.4% | .293 | 4.16 | 19.1% | 10.5% | 315 | -0.22 | 3.50 | 472 | 84 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.78 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.43 | 4.25 | 412 | 84 |
| Wil Jensen R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.64 | 20.2% | 8.6% | 3.9% | .261 | 4.28 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 173 | -0.36 | 3.41 | 368 | 83 |
| Stolmy Pimentel R 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.28 | 16.0% | 10.5% | 2.2% | .338 | 3.79 | 13.6% | 3.1% | 72 | -0.49 | 3.79 | 143 | 83 |
| Angel Araiza R 2027 · 4.55 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.55 | 16.7% | 6.5% | 3.7% | .287 | 3.95 | 15.0% | 7.6% | 193 | -0.60 | 3.53 | 289 | 83 |
| Dylan Burns R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.06 | 17.1% | 10.8% | 1.9% | .300 | 4.86 | 11.6% | -2.4% | 41 | +0.80 | 4.06 | 120 | 82 |
| Hayden Minton R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.53 | 19.1% | 7.0% | 3.9% | .278 | 5.41 | 19.6% | 8.0% | 66 | +0.88 | 3.96 | 260 | 82 |
| James McArthur R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.53 | 19.7% | 7.9% | 2.0% | .310 | 4.16 | 22.1% | 13.7% | 194 | +0.63 | 3.53 | 352 | 82 |
| Riley Thompson R 2025 · 4.88 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.88 | 16.5% | 9.4% | 3.6% | .288 | 5.29 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 57 | +0.41 | 4.52 | 340 | 81 |
| Ben Gross R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.20 | 23.0% | 8.8% | 3.5% | .359 | 4.87 | 17.6% | 2.0% | 22 | +0.67 | 4.20 | 118 | 81 |
| Sam Highfill R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.68 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.2% | .305 | 5.95 | 18.2% | 7.9% | 55 | +1.27 | 4.68 | 161 | 81 |
| Cooper Chandler R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.50 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 3.1% | .300 | 3.74 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.76 | 3.74 | 107 | 81 |
| Carlos Sano R 2027 · 4.98 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.98 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.6% | .282 | 9.58 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.60 | 4.98 | 105 | 81 |
| Matt Ager R 2025 · 5.00 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.00 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.00 | 146 | 81 |
| Paxton Schultz R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.22 | 17.5% | 12.2% | 3.7% | .293 | 4.57 | 22.2% | 10.9% | 274 | -0.65 | 4.00 | 512 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7 | 65 | 20.1% | 9.4% | 1.19 | 4.63 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |