Jackson Nezuh

P Corpus Christi Hooks

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 190 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.8 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTPre-ArbFA 2033

OGV OFP35OGV rank#595ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	27	16	120	3.89	2.87	30.1%	9.6%	—	K 22.5% · BB 11.2% · FIP 3.89
2025	23	MIX2 levels	20	17	77	4.34	3.91	23.4%	8.6%	—	K 18.6% · BB 8.9% · FIP 4.47
2026	24	MIX2 levels	26	19	103	3.83	3.66	28.1%	11.3%	—	K 23.2% · BB 11.4% · FIP 4.35
2027PROJ	25	MLBHOU	1	1	1	4.62	4.62	21.6%	10.7%	0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBHOU	6	6	35	4.53	4.52	21.9%	10.3%	0.3
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBHOU	8	8	46	4.51	4.52	21.9%	10.2%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.0First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$1M2031Arb-2$2M2032Arb-3$2M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 5.6, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 80%

CompsRicky Castro (age 24) · Tyler Uberstine (age 23) · Rorik Maltrud (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.62

FIP4.62

K%21.6%

BB%10.7%

K-BB%11.0%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$8M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.0	$0.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Arb-1	$1M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.4M
2031	Arb-2	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.1M
2032	Arb-3	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$6M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	16	120	502	151	48	10	59%	4.5	22.5%	11.2%	11.3%	2.3%	3.89	3.89	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	16	120	502	151	48	10	59%	4.5	22.5%	11.2%	11.3%	2.3%	3.89	3.89	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	16	120	502	151	48	10	59%	4.5	30.1%	9.6%	20.5%	2.0%	3.89	2.87	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	17	77	325	76	28	10	85%	3.8	18.6%	8.9%	9.7%	3.3%	4.34	4.47	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	17	77	325	76	28	10	85%	3.8	18.6%	8.9%	9.7%	3.3%	4.34	4.47	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	17	77	325	76	28	10	85%	3.8	23.4%	8.6%	14.8%	3.1%	4.34	3.91	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	19	103	442	124	50	12	73%	4.0	23.2%	11.4%	11.9%	3.2%	3.83	4.35	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	19	103	442	124	50	12	73%	4.0	23.2%	11.4%	11.9%	3.2%	3.83	4.35	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	19	103	442	124	50	12	73%	4.0	28.1%	11.3%	16.7%	2.7%	3.83	3.66	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	HOU	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	21.6%	10.7%	11.0%	2.9%	4.62	4.62	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	HOU	13	13	79	333	73	34	10	100%	6.1	21.9%	10.3%	11.5%	2.9%	4.57	4.56	+0.8
2029	27	MLB MLE	HOU	12	12	73	307	67	31	9	100%	6.1	21.9%	10.2%	11.6%	3.0%	4.56	4.57	+0.7
2030	28	MLB MLE	HOU	11	11	68	288	63	30	9	100%	6.2	21.8%	10.2%	11.5%	3.1%	4.60	4.64	+0.6
2031	29	MLB MLE	HOU	11	11	63	266	57	28	9	100%	5.7	21.5%	10.4%	11.1%	3.2%	4.69	4.76	+0.5
2032	30	MLB MLE	HOU	10	10	63	265	61	26	9	100%	6.3	23.2%	9.9%	13.3%	3.4%	4.68	4.67	+0.5
2033	31	MLB MLE	HOU	9	9	56	234	53	24	9	100%	6.2	22.8%	10.3%	12.5%	3.7%	4.79	4.87	+0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	HOU	6	6	35	148	32	15	4	100%	5.8	21.9%	10.3%	11.5%	2.9%	4.53	4.52	+0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	HOU	8	8	46	194	42	20	6	100%	5.8	21.9%	10.2%	11.6%	2.9%	4.51	4.52	+0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	HOU	8	8	51	215	47	22	6	100%	6.4	21.8%	10.2%	11.5%	3.0%	4.55	4.59	+0.4
2031	29	MLB CTX	HOU	9	9	52	220	47	23	7	100%	5.8	21.5%	10.4%	11.1%	3.2%	4.64	4.71	+0.4
2032	30	MLB CTX	HOU	9	9	54	228	53	23	8	100%	6.0	23.2%	9.9%	13.3%	3.3%	4.63	4.62	+0.5
2033	31	MLB CTX	HOU	8	8	49	207	47	21	7	100%	6.1	22.8%	10.3%	12.5%	3.6%	4.73	4.81	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		48	48	287	1211	269	124	38	100%	6.0	22.2%	10.2%	12.0%	3.2%	4.60	4.26	+3.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	188	86	26	100%	6.0	22.2%	10.2%	12.0%	3.2%	4.60	4.26	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		73	52	300	1269	276	135	37	71%	4.1	21.8%	10.7%	11.1%	2.9%	3.99	4.20	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	35	200	845	184	90	24	71%	4.1	21.8%	10.7%	11.1%	2.9%	3.99	4.20	+1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 66 IPFIP 4.04 → 5.06 (+1.03)K% 29.1% → 23.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.09%	—	×0.810	23.56%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.45%	—	×1.100	10.40%
HR / BF /BF	4.00%	÷1.000	×1.200	4.80%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.04 → 5.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 38 IPFIP 3.02 → 3.19 (+0.16)K% 26.3% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.35%	—	×0.860	22.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.37%	—	×0.900	12.93%
HR / BF /BF	0.60%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.66%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.02 → 3.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 72 IPFIP 3.78 → 4.47 (+0.69)K% 23.0% → 18.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.98%	—	×0.810	18.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.09%	—	×1.100	8.90%
HR / BF /BF	2.91%	÷1.057	×1.200	3.31%

Result: FIP 3.78 → 4.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 82 IPFIP 2.98 → 4.08 (+1.11)K% 31.0% → 22.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.97%	—	×0.740	22.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.44%	—	×1.180	11.14%
HR / BF /BF	2.36%	÷1.118	×1.300	2.74%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 124).

Result: FIP 2.98 → 4.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Asheville Tourists · 39 IPFIP 2.63 → 3.48 (+0.85)K% 28.2% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.22%	—	×0.770	21.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.82%	—	×1.150	11.29%
HR / BF /BF	1.23%	÷1.073	×1.250	1.43%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 115).

Result: FIP 2.63 → 3.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jackson Nezuh (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.59	21.8%	11.6%	220	-0.03	—	—	—
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	90
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	86
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	86
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	85
Andrew Politi R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP-	5.21	21.0%	12.2%	4.3%	.320	4.04	22.9%	13.8%	138	-1.17	3.38	292	84
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	84
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	83
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	82
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.40	21.6%	13.7%	145	-0.31	1.85	254	81
Nick Dean R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.47	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.39	2.73	202	81
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	19.5%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.02	23.3%	14.9%	227	-0.85	3.83	543	81
Zack Lee R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP-	3.51	19.2%	7.0%	2.1%	.293	4.54	15.0%	6.5%	153	+1.03	3.22	236	80
Brett Daniels R 2021 · 4.67 FIP	25	SP-	4.67	22.3%	13.0%	3.3%	.357	4.69	18.9%	3.2%	77	+0.02	3.95	270	80
Brad Peacock R 2013 · 4.92 FIP	25	SP-	4.92	21.1%	10.1%	4.2%	.267	4.33	20.6%	10.7%	280	-0.59	2.97	748	80
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	80
Logan Martin R 2024 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	16.9%	8.9%	2.1%	.278	4.58	17.6%	5.0%	140	+0.63	3.95	242	80
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	79
Angel Araiza R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	16.7%	6.5%	3.8%	.287	3.79	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.78	3.40	289	79
Luke Russo R 2024 · 3.74 FIP	23	SP	3.74	21.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.326	5.00	19.6%	8.8%	159	+1.26	3.74	260	78
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	67	22.1%	10.3%	1.22	4.64
Luis Vizcaino ('09)	2.7	68	21.0%	10.1%	1.30	4.33
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Mark Lowe ('16)	1.9	64	20.9%	9.7%	1.10	4.22
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Joe Boever ('85-'96, 4 WAR*)	3.8	84	20.9%*	10.0%*	1.14*	4.15*