Andrew Politi

P Worcester Red Sox

Age 31 RHP 6'0" / 195 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	26	MIX2 levels	50	2	69	2.34	2.78	30.2%	8.0%	—	K 26.1% · BB 8.5% · FIP 3.38
2023	27	AAABOS	54	0	59	4.45	3.82	22.8%	10.6%	—	K 19.6% · BB 9.6% · FIP 4.02
2024	28	AAABOS	11	0	10	12.19	8.81	23.1%	11.5%	—	K 19.8% · BB 10.4% · FIP 8.57
2025	29	No MLB games played
2026	30	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	31	MLBBOS	1	0	1	4.47	4.47	22.7%	9.4%	0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	32	MLBBOS	7	0	7	4.59	4.68	22.3%	9.8%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsJoe Nelson (age 31) · Jim Miller (age 30) · Mike Broadway (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.47

FIP4.47

K%22.7%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%13.3%

Proj IP6

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	23	A+ MLE	Salem Red Sox	33	5	79	327	96	37	4	15%	2.4	22.6%	13.0%	9.6%	1.4%	3.55	3.62	—
2019	23	A+ RAW	Salem Red Sox	33	5	79	327	96	37	4	15%	2.4	29.4%	11.3%	18.0%	1.2%	3.55	2.73	—
2021	25	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	21	15	75	344	89	38	11	71%	3.6	21.0%	12.2%	8.8%	4.3%	6.36	5.21	—
2021	25	AA RAW	Portland Sea Dogs	21	15	75	344	89	38	11	71%	3.6	25.9%	11.0%	14.8%	3.2%	6.36	4.15	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	2	69	275	83	22	6	4%	1.4	26.1%	8.5%	17.6%	2.6%	2.34	3.38	—
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	2	69	275	83	22	6	4%	1.4	30.2%	8.0%	22.2%	2.2%	2.34	2.78	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	54	0	59	263	60	28	6	0%	1.1	19.6%	9.6%	10.0%	2.5%	4.45	4.02	—
2023	27	AAA RAW	Worcester Red Sox	54	0	59	263	60	28	6	0%	1.1	22.8%	10.6%	12.2%	2.3%	4.45	3.82	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	11	0	10	52	12	6	5	0%	0.9	19.8%	10.4%	9.5%	10.6%	12.19	8.57	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	11	0	10	52	12	6	5	0%	0.9	19.8%	10.4%	9.5%	10.6%	12.19	8.57	—
2024	28	AAA RAW	Worcester Red Sox	11	0	10	52	12	6	5	0%	0.9	23.1%	11.5%	11.5%	9.6%	12.19	8.81	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	BOS	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	22.7%	9.4%	13.3%	3.1%	4.47	4.47	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	BOS	17	0	18	76	17	7	3	0%	1.1	22.3%	9.8%	12.6%	3.4%	4.59	4.68	-0.0
2028	32	MLB CTX	BOS	7	0	7	30	7	3	1	0%	1.0	22.3%	9.8%	12.6%	3.4%	4.59	4.68	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	7	28	6	3	1	0%	1.1	22.3%	9.8%	12.6%	3.4%	4.59	4.30	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	180	90	30	0%	1.1	22.3%	9.8%	12.6%	3.4%	4.59	4.30	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		169	22	292	1261	280	138	38	13%	1.7	22.2%	11.0%	11.2%	3.0%	4.47	4.29	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		116	15	200	864	191	95	26	13%	1.7	22.2%	11.0%	11.2%	3.0%	4.47	4.29	-0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 10 IPFIP 7.89 → 8.57 (+0.68)K% 23.1% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.08%	—	×0.860	19.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.54%	—	×0.900	10.38%
HR / BF /BF	9.62%	÷0.996	×1.100	10.62%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 99).

Result: FIP 7.89 → 8.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 59 IPFIP 3.77 → 4.02 (+0.25)K% 22.8% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.81%	—	×0.860	19.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.65%	—	×0.900	9.58%
HR / BF /BF	2.28%	÷1.008	×1.100	2.49%

Result: FIP 3.77 → 4.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 56 IPFIP 2.78 → 3.29 (+0.51)K% 28.3% → 24.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.25%	—	×0.880	24.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.52%	—	×1.050	8.95%
HR / BF /BF	1.79%	÷0.939	×1.100	2.10%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 88).

Result: FIP 2.78 → 3.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 13 IPFIP 2.69 → 3.80 (+1.10)K% 38.5% → 31.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.46%	—	×0.810	31.15%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.77%	—	×1.100	6.35%
HR / BF /BF	3.85%	÷1.004	×1.200	4.60%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 101).

Result: FIP 2.69 → 3.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 75 IPFIP 4.07 → 5.21 (+1.14)K% 25.9% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.87%	—	×0.810	20.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.05%	—	×1.100	12.15%
HR / BF /BF	3.20%	÷0.900	×1.200	4.26%

Result: FIP 4.07 → 5.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Salem Red Sox · 79 IPFIP 2.73 → 3.62 (+0.89)K% 29.4% → 22.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.36%	—	×0.770	22.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.31%	—	×1.150	13.01%
HR / BF /BF	1.22%	÷1.080	×1.250	1.42%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 116).

Result: FIP 2.73 → 3.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Andrew Politi (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.47	22.7%	9.4%	3.1%	—	4.68	22.3%	12.6%	18	+0.21	—	—	—
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	81
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	78
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	78
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	76
Chris Hatcher R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	31	SU	4.61	23.8%	9.4%	4.2%	.283	4.69	22.0%	13.8%	96	+0.08	2.51	246	75
Dustin Molleken R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	31	SU	4.04	19.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.276	3.38	24.3%	11.9%	16	-0.66	3.38	129	74
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	73
Mark Serrano R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	31	SU	3.56	21.9%	6.4%	2.7%	.240	5.25	20.2%	12.3%	42	+1.69	3.16	120	73
Neil Wagner R 2016 · 4.05 FIP	32	SU	4.05	19.8%	12.3%	1.9%	.360	3.11	20.7%	12.1%	54	-0.94	3.11	135	73
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	72
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	72
Brian Schlitter R 2016 · 3.28 FIP	30	SU	3.28	20.6%	10.8%	1.0%	.333	3.81	14.4%	6.6%	110	+0.53	3.27	300	72
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	72
Jeff Fulchino R 2011 · 4.44 FIP	31	SU	4.44	20.4%	11.1%	3.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	178	72
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	71
Manny Acosta R 2012 · 4.49 FIP	31	SU	4.49	21.3%	11.1%	3.2%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	350	71
Mike Buddie R 2002 · 4.26 FIP	31	SU	4.26	15.1%	7.6%	2.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	123	70
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	2.60	292	70
Ryan Brasier R 2019 · 4.12 FIP	31	SU	4.12	25.3%	8.3%	3.8%	.278	3.56	24.3%	18.2%	99	-0.56	2.31	426	70
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	70