Ty Madden
P
Toledo Mud Hens
+0.5
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'3" / 215 lbs
AAA
Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 0.8 · 2027
ERA4.62
FIP4.82
xFIP4.83
SIERA4.52
K%23.0%
BB%9.8%
K-BB%13.2%
IP119
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2027
K†5555
FB Velo
p4894.4
Whiff%
p4424.4%
K%
p1316.8%
xwOBA vs
p390.325
FB+2.2 (47%)
SI (5%)
CU (4%)
SL-0.6 (15%)
CT-2.7 (18%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 26 | 26 | 123 | 501 | 133 | 38 | 16 | 20.8% | 8.6% | 4.6% | 3.01 | 4.95 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 26 | 25 | 118 | 492 | 146 | 50 | 16 | 24.0% | 11.2% | 3.7% | 3.43 | 4.53 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 28 | 23 | 120 | 539 | 141 | 51 | 20 | 23.1% | 9.9% | 5.1% | 6.47 | 5.19 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 4 | 3 | 14 | 60 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 22.0% | 8.8% | 5.5% | 4.40 | 5.37 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | DET | 22 | 22 | 119 | 503 | 115 | 49 | 18 | 22.9% | 9.8% | 3.7% | 4.63 | 4.79 | +0.7 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | DET | — | — | 134 | 563 | 130 | 54 | 21 | 23.1% | 9.6% | 3.8% | 4.60 | 4.85 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | DET | 22 | 22 | 122 | 516 | 118 | 50 | 19 | 22.8% | 9.6% | 3.6% | 4.68 | 4.75 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | DET | 22 | 22 | 122 | 517 | 118 | 49 | 19 | 22.7% | 9.5% | 3.6% | 4.70 | 4.74 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | DET | 22 | 22 | 120 | 505 | 112 | 48 | 18 | 22.2% | 9.5% | 3.6% | 4.74 | 4.79 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | DET | 21 | 21 | 116 | 490 | 106 | 47 | 18 | 21.6% | 9.6% | 3.6% | 4.81 | 4.86 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | DET | 20 | 20 | 112 | 473 | 100 | 46 | 18 | 21.1% | 9.7% | 3.7% | 4.90 | 4.97 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | DET | 20 | 20 | 108 | 454 | 93 | 45 | 17 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 3.8% | 5.01 | 5.08 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | DET | 19 | 19 | 103 | 434 | 86 | 43 | 17 | 19.8% | 10.0% | 3.9% | 5.13 | 5.21 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | DET | 18 | 18 | 98 | 412 | 79 | 42 | 16 | 19.1% | 10.2% | 4.0% | 5.26 | 5.35 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | DET | 17 | 17 | 92 | 388 | 71 | 41 | 16 | 18.3% | 10.4% | 4.1% | 5.40 | 5.50 | -0.3 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | DET | 16 | 16 | 86 | 363 | 64 | 39 | 15 | 17.6% | 10.7% | 4.2% | 5.56 | 5.66 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 84 | 77 | 375 | 1592 | 360 | 157 | 72 | 22.6% | 9.8% | 4.5% | 4.30 | 4.92 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 41 | 200 | 850 | 192 | 84 | 38 | 22.6% | 9.8% | 4.5% | 4.30 | 4.92 | +0.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ty Madden (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.79 | 22.9% | 9.8% | 3.7% | — | 4.76 | 22.6% | 13.0% | 364 | -0.03 | — | — | — |
| Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.78 | 19.7% | 9.7% | 3.9% | .262 | 3.93 | 22.1% | 13.0% | 127 | -0.85 | 3.50 | 472 | 86 |
| R.J. Gordon R 2023 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.5% | 9.5% | 3.3% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 129 | 85 |
| Ariel Peña R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.79 | 21.3% | 9.5% | 2.3% | .300 | 4.90 | 19.9% | 5.6% | 92 | +1.11 | 3.79 | 223 | 84 |
| Yariel Rodríguez R 2027 · 3.76 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.76 | 25.1% | 11.8% | 2.3% | .275 | 3.86 | 22.1% | 11.7% | 73 | +0.10 | 3.76 | 180 | 83 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2027 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 82 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2027 · 4.42 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.42 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 5.02 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.60 | 4.42 | 200 | 81 |
| Hansel Robles R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.03 | 22.1% | 11.6% | 4.2% | .267 | 3.59 | 25.5% | 17.6% | 145 | -1.44 | 2.71 | 469 | 81 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .331 | 5.58 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.73 | 3.85 | 141 | 81 |
| Joe Wieland R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.28 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 3.3% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 270 | 80 |
| K.C. Hunt R 2025 · 4.34 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.34 | 19.3% | 9.0% | 3.1% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 223 | 80 |
| Brady Feigl R 2025 · 5.32 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.32 | 19.4% | 9.6% | 4.8% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 257 | 80 |
| Hector Noesí R 2028 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 80 |
| Forrest Snow R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.10 | 16.1% | 8.2% | 4.2% | .263 | 4.13 | 21.8% | 14.2% | 256 | -0.97 | 3.03 | 406 | 80 |
| Trent Sellers R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.51 | 21.8% | 13.3% | 2.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 178 | 79 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .286 | 4.13 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 120 | +0.24 | 3.89 | 248 | 79 |
| Blade Tidwell R 2024 · 3.95 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.95 | 22.2% | 9.9% | 2.7% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 350 | 79 |
| J.P. France R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.07 | 27.6% | 11.3% | 3.4% | .306 | 4.43 | 21.1% | 11.4% | 292 | +0.36 | 4.07 | 530 | 79 |
| Caleb Kilian R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.69 | 16.3% | 7.2% | 3.8% | .290 | 3.66 | 18.0% | 9.7% | 57 | -1.03 | 2.39 | 396 | 79 |
| Felipe Gonzalez R 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.57 | 18.3% | 9.2% | 3.4% | .337 | 3.27 | 22.7% | 12.7% | 50 | -1.30 | 3.27 | 339 | 79 |
| Zack Wheeler R 2027 · 4.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.89 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 4.2% | .327 | 3.06 | 23.0% | 16.8% | 449 | -1.83 | 2.32 | 1,443 | 79 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2
MLB Debut 2024
Service 2.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2029
First FA Year 2027
DEF 10%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-1 | $0.6M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2027 | Arb-2 | $1M | +0.8 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2028 | Arb-3 | $2M | +0.8 | $3M | +$1M |
| 2029 | Arb-4 | $3M | +0.7 | $3M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $7M | $13M | +$6M | ||