Ty Madden — OGILVIE

Ty Madden P Toledo Mud Hens

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 215 lbs AAA ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION87 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10698vR 90

ERA4.45

FIP4.66

K%20.1%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%10.1%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 95 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5050

CTRL5045

CMD4545

K†5055

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3393.3

Whiff%

p5025.2%

p6525.0%

xwOBA vs

p900.269

FB+2.2 (47%)

SI (5%)

CU (4%)

SL-0.6 (15%)

CT-2.7 (18%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	123	501	133	38	16	100%	4.7	20.8%	8.6%	12.2%	4.5%	3.01	4.90	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	123	501	133	38	16	100%	4.7	26.5%	7.6%	19.0%	3.2%	3.01	3.56	—
2023	23	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	26	25	118	492	146	50	16	96%	4.5	24.0%	11.2%	12.9%	3.7%	3.43	4.52	—
2023	23	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	26	25	118	492	146	50	16	96%	4.5	24.0%	11.2%	12.9%	3.7%	3.43	4.52	—
2023	23	AA RAW	Erie SeaWolves	26	25	118	492	146	50	16	96%	4.5	29.7%	10.2%	19.5%	3.3%	3.43	3.66	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	23	120	539	141	51	20	82%	4.3	22.2%	8.8%	13.4%	5.0%	6.47	5.09	-0.3
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	23	120	539	141	51	20	82%	4.3	22.2%	8.8%	13.4%	5.0%	6.47	5.09	-0.3
2024	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	23	120	539	141	51	20	82%	4.3	26.2%	9.5%	16.7%	3.7%	6.47	4.19	+1.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			23	2	62	261	57	21	6	9%	2.7	21.8%	8.0%	13.8%	2.3%	3.77	3.54	+0.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	34	12	87	381	76	42	11	35%	2.6	18.3%	10.3%	8.1%	3.1%	4.12	4.56	-0.0
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	34	12	87	381	76	42	11	35%	2.6	18.3%	10.3%	8.1%	3.1%	4.12	4.56	-0.0
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AAA RAW	DET	17	11	48	221	36	29	7	65%	2.8	16.3%	13.1%	3.2%	3.2%	4.66	5.13	—
2026	26	MLB RAW	DET	17	1	39	160	40	13	4	6%	2.3	25.0%	8.1%	16.9%	2.5%	3.46	3.39	+0.5
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	DET	17	1	39	160	40	13	4	6%	2.3	25.0%	8.1%	16.9%	2.5%	3.46	3.39	+0.5
ROS	26	MLB MLE	DET	7	0	8	32	6	3	1	0%	1.1	20.1%	10.0%	10.1%	3.6%	4.45	4.66	-0.0
ROS	26	MLB CTX	DET	8	0	8	34	7	3	1	0%	1.0	20.1%	10.0%	10.1%	3.6%	4.45	4.66	-0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	DET	—	—	95	413	82	45	12	—	—	20.0%	10.9%	9.0%	2.9%	4.15	4.57	+0.3
FULL	26	MLB A+C	DET	—	—	47	197	82	45	12	—	—	41.9%	23.0%	18.9%	6.2%	8.45	5.87	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	DET	18	18	110	465	105	43	16	100%	6.1	22.7%	9.2%	13.5%	3.4%	4.50	4.60	+0.4
2028	28	MLB MLE	DET	18	18	110	465	105	43	16	100%	6.1	22.5%	9.2%	13.2%	3.5%	4.58	4.65	+0.3
2029	29	MLB MLE	DET	18	18	105	444	97	42	16	100%	5.8	21.9%	9.4%	12.5%	3.6%	4.70	4.80	+0.1
2030	30	MLB MLE	DET	16	16	99	417	88	40	16	100%	6.2	21.2%	9.7%	11.5%	3.8%	4.87	4.99	-0.1
2027	27	MLB CTX	DET	18	18	105	443	101	41	15	100%	5.8	22.7%	9.2%	13.5%	3.4%	4.50	4.60	+0.4
2028	28	MLB CTX	DET	18	18	105	443	100	41	15	100%	5.8	22.5%	9.2%	13.2%	3.5%	4.58	4.65	+0.3
2029	29	MLB CTX	DET	17	17	100	422	92	40	15	100%	5.9	21.9%	9.4%	12.5%	3.6%	4.70	4.80	+0.1
2030	30	MLB CTX	DET	16	16	94	397	84	38	15	100%	5.9	21.2%	9.7%	11.5%	3.8%	4.87	4.99	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		97	69	472	1994	439	184	68	71%	4.9	22.0%	9.2%	12.8%	3.4%	4.54	4.27	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		41	29	200	844	186	78	29	71%	4.9	22.0%	9.2%	12.8%	3.4%	4.54	4.27	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		114	86	448	1913	412	184	80	75%	3.9	21.5%	9.6%	11.9%	4.2%	4.26	4.79	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	38	200	855	184	82	36	75%	3.9	21.5%	9.6%	11.9%	4.2%	4.26	4.79	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ty Madden (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.92	21.6%	9.8%	3.7%	—	4.68	22.4%	13.1%	325	-0.24	—	—	—
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	82
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	79
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	79
Kutter Crawford R 2022 · 4.47 FIP	26	SP-	4.47	21.9%	7.7%	4.1%	.316	4.15	24.1%	17.4%	313	-0.32	3.30	741	78
Luis Santos R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	26	SP-	4.76	19.7%	9.7%	3.8%	.262	3.93	22.1%	13.0%	127	-0.83	3.53	472	78
TJ Shook R 2023 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	21.0%	9.6%	3.6%	.273	4.07	21.2%	12.4%	191	-0.44	3.35	451	76
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	76
Cody Sedlock R 2021 · 5.05 FIP	26	SP-	5.05	19.9%	10.9%	4.1%	.301	4.21	20.1%	7.1%	80	-0.84	4.21	378	76
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	76
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	25	SP-	4.90	19.1%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.05	22.7%	14.3%	222	-0.85	3.90	538	75
Aaron Brown R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP-	3.98	19.8%	8.8%	2.6%	.337	5.89	16.8%	8.8%	186	+1.91	3.98	418	75
David Griffin R 2022 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	16.6%	9.8%	3.2%	.285	5.85	13.9%	4.7%	81	+1.14	4.43	239	75
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	74
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	74
Joey Mancini R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	23	SP-	4.22	18.1%	10.0%	2.5%	.354	4.40	16.6%	6.3%	296	+0.18	3.64	391	74
Jake Walkinshaw R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	26	SP-	4.61	17.5%	6.4%	4.0%	.296	4.84	13.0%	3.5%	116	+0.23	2.84	307	73
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	73
Mark Leiter Jr. R 2017 · 4.38 FIP	26	SW	4.38	22.6%	6.8%	4.2%	.277	4.86	19.4%	10.8%	52	+0.48	2.53	827	73
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	73
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	100	22.0%	9.4%	1.38	4.66
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Caleb Smith ('22)	2.1	104	25.1%	11.0%	1.67	4.47
Félix Peña ('20)	1.2	62	23.6%	8.3%	1.37	4.46
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Mike Minor ('22)	3.8	126	22.3%	7.2%	1.44	4.38