Matt Duffy
P
FCL Red Sox
Age 24
RHP
6'2" / 205 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 1.0 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION8 act + 69 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 100
ERA4.37
FIP4.37
K%22.4%
BB%8.9%
K-BB%13.4%
ROS IP69
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 77 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 3 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 67% | 1.4 | 27.8% | 11.1% | 16.7% | 11.1% | 10.38 | 8.26 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 3 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 67% | 1.4 | 27.8% | 11.1% | 16.7% | 11.1% | 10.38 | 8.18 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Salem Red Sox | 22 | 21 | 99 | 401 | 100 | 27 | 8 | 95% | 4.5 | 18.5% | 7.9% | 10.5% | 3.0% | 2.83 | 4.19 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Salem Red Sox | 22 | 21 | 99 | 401 | 100 | 27 | 8 | 95% | 4.5 | 24.9% | 6.7% | 18.2% | 2.0% | 2.83 | 2.95 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 4 | 1 | 8 | 38 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 25% | 2.1 | — | — | — | — | 7.56 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | BOS | 66 | 0 | 69 | 292 | 65 | 26 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 8.9% | 13.4% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.37 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.4% | 8.9% | 13.4% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.38 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 77 | 330 | 78 | 32 | 11 | — | — | 23.7% | 9.7% | 14.0% | 3.3% | 4.71 | 3.90 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 68 | 26 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.8% | 8.7% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 4.32 | 4.30 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 68 | 26 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.1% | 8.7% | 14.4% | 3.0% | 4.29 | 4.28 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 12 | 69 | 291 | 67 | 26 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.1% | 8.8% | 14.3% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.32 | +0.3 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | BOS | 5 | 5 | 30 | 127 | 29 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.8% | 8.7% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 4.33 | 4.31 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 8 | 8 | 46 | 194 | 45 | 17 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.1% | 8.7% | 14.4% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.29 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 9 | 9 | 53 | 224 | 52 | 20 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.1% | 8.8% | 14.3% | 3.1% | 4.31 | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 22 | 22 | 130 | 547 | 126 | 48 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.0% | 8.8% | 14.3% | 3.0% | 4.31 | 3.93 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 194 | 74 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.0% | 8.8% | 14.3% | 3.0% | 4.31 | 3.93 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 29 | 24 | 111 | 457 | 92 | 40 | 16 | 83% | 3.8 | 20.1% | 8.7% | 11.4% | 3.5% | 3.48 | 4.43 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 43 | 200 | 821 | 165 | 72 | 29 | 83% | 3.8 | 20.1% | 8.7% | 11.4% | 3.5% | 3.48 | 4.43 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matt Duffy (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.37 | 22.4% | 8.9% | 3.0% | — | 4.30 | 23.0% | 14.2% | 209 | -0.07 | — | — | — |
| Ricky Castro R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.93 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .287 | 4.58 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 140 | +0.65 | 3.90 | 202 | 89 |
| Sam Benschoter R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.96 | 26.3% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .344 | 5.03 | 18.9% | 8.4% | 306 | +1.07 | 3.58 | 426 | 86 |
| Casey Legumina R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.68 | 323 | 84 |
| Wil Jensen R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.64 | 20.2% | 8.6% | 3.9% | .261 | 4.28 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 173 | -0.36 | 3.41 | 368 | 84 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.78 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.43 | 4.25 | 412 | 82 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.87 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.3% | .300 | 4.37 | 19.6% | 9.8% | 143 | +0.50 | 3.87 | 247 | 81 |
| James McArthur R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.53 | 19.7% | 7.9% | 2.0% | .310 | 4.16 | 22.1% | 13.7% | 194 | +0.63 | 3.53 | 352 | 81 |
| Kyle Brnovich R 2025 · 3.69 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.69 | 25.1% | 7.5% | 3.2% | .256 | 5.06 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 89 | +1.37 | 3.69 | 333 | 81 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.37 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.37 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.01 | 3.42 | 237 | 81 |
| Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2027 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 20.3% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .309 | 3.63 | 21.4% | 13.2% | 123 | -0.14 | 1.87 | 232 | 80 |
| Cooper Chandler R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.50 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 3.1% | .300 | 3.74 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.76 | 3.74 | 107 | 80 |
| Nick Payero R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.06 | 16.5% | 6.3% | 2.8% | .285 | 5.72 | 16.6% | 4.6% | 107 | +1.66 | 4.06 | 178 | 80 |
| Hayden Minton R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.53 | 19.1% | 7.0% | 3.9% | .278 | 5.41 | 19.6% | 8.0% | 66 | +0.88 | 3.96 | 260 | 79 |
| Ben Gross R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.20 | 23.0% | 8.8% | 3.5% | .359 | 4.87 | 17.6% | 2.0% | 22 | +0.67 | 4.20 | 118 | 79 |
| Ray Gaither R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.91 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .314 | 4.49 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.42 | 4.16 | 164 | 79 |
| Ryan Jennings R 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.29 | 23.4% | 11.9% | 1.2% | .316 | 4.60 | 23.0% | 9.5% | 109 | +1.31 | 3.29 | 142 | 79 |
| Martin Agosta R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.24 | 21.6% | 6.2% | 4.0% | .340 | 4.51 | 12.3% | 5.7% | 40 | +0.27 | 4.24 | 146 | 78 |
| Hunter Dollander R 2027 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.81 | 19.2% | 5.7% | 2.9% | .311 | 6.73 | 17.6% | -0.7% | 51 | +2.92 | 3.81 | 106 | 78 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2028 · 3.92 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.92 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 3.1% | .232 | 5.11 | 17.5% | 6.2% | 190 | +1.19 | 3.92 | 233 | 78 |
| Brett Gillis R 2027 · 3.37 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.37 | 20.3% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .278 | 5.10 | 15.8% | 6.7% | 73 | +1.73 | 3.37 | 119 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 70 | 22.8% | 8.8% | 1.16 | 4.32 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |