Matt Duffy
P
Salem Red Sox
+1.0
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'2" / 205 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 1.4 · 2028
ERA4.35
FIP4.35
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.4%
BB%8.9%
K-BB%13.4%
IP99
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.4peak
2028
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | A | Salem Red Sox | 3 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 5 | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | 10.38 | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Salem Red Sox | 22 | 21 | 99 | 401 | 100 | 27 | 8 | 18.5% | 7.9% | 2.7% | 2.83 | 4.05 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | BOS | 18 | 18 | 99 | 417 | 93 | 37 | 12 | 22.4% | 8.9% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 4.35 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | BOS | 20 | 20 | 112 | 472 | 107 | 41 | 14 | 22.7% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.28 | +1.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 22 | 22 | 119 | 502 | 115 | 43 | 15 | 22.9% | 8.5% | 3.0% | 4.27 | 4.25 | +1.4 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 22 | 22 | 122 | 515 | 118 | 44 | 15 | 22.8% | 8.5% | 3.0% | 4.27 | 4.26 | +1.4 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 22 | 22 | 122 | 516 | 117 | 44 | 16 | 22.8% | 8.5% | 3.0% | 4.28 | 4.29 | +1.4 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 22 | 22 | 120 | 505 | 114 | 43 | 15 | 22.6% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 4.31 | 4.33 | +1.3 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 21 | 21 | 116 | 489 | 110 | 43 | 15 | 22.4% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 4.36 | 4.40 | +1.2 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 20 | 20 | 112 | 472 | 105 | 42 | 15 | 22.2% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 4.43 | 4.47 | +1.1 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 20 | 20 | 107 | 453 | 99 | 41 | 15 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.3% | 4.51 | 4.56 | +0.9 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 19 | 19 | 102 | 433 | 93 | 40 | 15 | 21.6% | 9.2% | 3.4% | 4.60 | 4.66 | +0.7 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | BOS | 18 | 18 | 97 | 411 | 87 | 38 | 14 | 21.2% | 9.3% | 3.5% | 4.70 | 4.77 | +0.6 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | BOS | 17 | 17 | 92 | 388 | 81 | 37 | 14 | 20.9% | 9.6% | 3.6% | 4.81 | 4.89 | +0.4 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | BOS | 16 | 16 | 86 | 362 | 74 | 36 | 13 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 3.7% | 4.94 | 5.02 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 25 | 23 | 103 | 419 | 79 | 34 | 13 | 18.9% | 8.1% | 3.1% | 3.15 | 4.23 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 45 | 200 | 814 | 153 | 66 | 25 | 18.9% | 8.1% | 3.1% | 3.15 | 4.23 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matt Duffy (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.35 | 22.4% | 8.9% | 3.0% | — | 4.26 | 22.8% | 14.3% | 353 | -0.09 | — | — | — |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .300 | 4.44 | 18.2% | 7.0% | 78 | +0.55 | 3.89 | 183 | 92 |
| Kaleb Fontenot R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.49 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 3.7% | .264 | 3.71 | 14.7% | 5.2% | 69 | -0.78 | 3.71 | 155 | 91 |
| Ben Gross R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.02 | 23.0% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .359 | 4.85 | 17.6% | 2.0% | 22 | +0.83 | 4.02 | 118 | 91 |
| R.J. Gordon R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.5% | 9.5% | 3.3% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 129 | 89 |
| Riley Gowens R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.63 | 22.6% | 10.3% | 3.9% | .279 | 4.35 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 132 | -0.28 | 4.35 | 254 | 89 |
| Blake Beers R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.61 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .298 | 4.96 | 17.7% | 8.5% | 323 | +0.35 | 4.41 | 416 | 89 |
| Emerson Hancock R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.1% | 10.2% | 3.1% | .288 | 4.37 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 313 | +0.06 | 2.50 | 554 | 88 |
| Roman Angelo R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.02 | 22.6% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .291 | 5.45 | 17.7% | 4.3% | 141 | +1.43 | 4.02 | 262 | 88 |
| Brett Sears R 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.63 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 111 | 88 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .331 | 5.58 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.73 | 3.85 | 141 | 88 |
| Hayden Minton R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.21 | 19.1% | 7.0% | 3.3% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 194 | 87 |
| Alex FaGalde R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.79 | 19.1% | 6.7% | 2.7% | .266 | 4.98 | 16.1% | 6.4% | 162 | +1.19 | 3.79 | 279 | 87 |
| Brian Edgington R 2027 · 3.97 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.97 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 3.1% | .321 | 5.23 | 19.3% | 7.0% | 58 | +1.26 | 3.97 | 171 | 87 |
| Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2027 · 3.70 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.70 | 20.3% | 8.7% | 2.2% | .309 | 3.24 | 21.0% | 14.2% | 101 | -0.46 | 1.87 | 210 | 87 |
| T.J. Weir R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.98 | 20.0% | 9.1% | 2.6% | .319 | 3.42 | 19.0% | 9.6% | 190 | -0.56 | 3.15 | 349 | 87 |
| Isaac Coffey R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.67 | 24.3% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .280 | 6.90 | 17.1% | 1.8% | 38 | +3.23 | 3.67 | 270 | 87 |
| Aaron Brown R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.08 | 19.8% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .337 | 5.97 | 17.2% | 8.4% | 186 | +1.89 | 4.08 | 418 | 87 |
| Austin Cates R 2024 · 3.95 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.95 | 19.7% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 110 | 87 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.5% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.23 | 4.15 | 212 | 87 |
| Wil Jensen R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.66 | 20.2% | 8.6% | 4.0% | .261 | 4.22 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 173 | -0.44 | 3.50 | 368 | 86 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.3 | $12M | +$11M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +1.2 | $11M | +$11M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +1.1 | $11M | +$10M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.9 | $5M | +$3M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.7 | $4M | +$1M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $7M | $43M | +$36M | ||