Matt Duffy
P Greenville Drive| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | G | GS | IP | ERA | FIP | K% | BB% | WAR | MLE rates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | MIX2 levels | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10.38 | 8.18 | 27.8% | 11.1% | — | K 27.8% · BB 11.1% · FIP 8.26 |
| 2024 | 22 | ASalem Red Sox | 22 | 21 | 99 | 2.83 | 2.95 | 24.9% | 6.7% | — | K 18.5% · BB 7.9% · FIP 4.07 |
| 2026 | 24 | MIX2 levels | 10 | 5 | 22 | 9.27 | 6.77 | 29.4% | 12.8% | — | K 22.0% · BB 12.3% · FIP 9.34 |
| 2027PROJ | 25 | MLBBOS | — | — | 0 | 4.88 | 4.88 | 21.8% | 10.1% | — | |
| 2028PROJ43% MLB | 26 | MLBBOS | 2 | 2 | 9 | 4.81 | 4.80 | 22.2% | 10.0% | 0.1 |
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year) | |||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 21 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 3 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 67% | 1.4 | 27.8% | 11.1% | 16.7% | 11.1% | 10.38 | 8.26 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX RAW | 2 levels | 3 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 67% | 1.4 | 27.8% | 11.1% | 16.7% | 11.1% | 10.38 | 8.18 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | 22 | 21 | 99 | 401 | 100 | 27 | 8 | 95% | 4.5 | 18.5% | 7.9% | 10.5% | 2.8% | 2.83 | 4.07 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | 22 | 21 | 99 | 401 | 100 | 27 | 8 | 95% | 4.5 | 18.5% | 7.9% | 10.5% | 2.8% | 2.83 | 4.07 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A RAW | Salem Red Sox | 22 | 21 | 99 | 401 | 100 | 27 | 8 | 95% | 4.5 | 24.9% | 6.7% | 18.2% | 2.0% | 2.83 | 2.95 | — |
| 2026 | 24 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 10 | 5 | 22 | 109 | 32 | 14 | 8 | 50% | 2.2 | 22.0% | 12.3% | 9.7% | 11.9% | 9.27 | 9.34 | — |
| 2026 | 24 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 10 | 5 | 22 | 109 | 32 | 14 | 8 | 50% | 2.2 | 22.0% | 12.3% | 9.7% | 11.9% | 9.27 | 9.34 | — |
| 2026 | 24 | MIX RAW | 2 levels | 10 | 5 | 22 | 109 | 32 | 14 | 8 | 50% | 2.2 | 29.4% | 12.8% | 16.5% | 7.3% | 9.27 | 6.77 | — |
| ▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.8% | 10.1% | 11.7% | 3.6% | 4.88 | 4.88 | — |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 26 | MLB MLE | BOS | 3 | 3 | 20 | 85 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 100% | 6.7 | 22.2% | 10.0% | 12.2% | 3.5% | 4.81 | 4.80 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB CTX | BOS | 2 | 2 | 9 | 38 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 4.5 | 22.2% | 10.0% | 12.2% | 3.5% | 4.81 | 4.80 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | RAW | 1 | 1 | 9 | 37 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 8.6 | 22.2% | 10.0% | 12.2% | 3.5% | 4.81 | 4.42 | +0.1 | |
| / 200 IP | — | RAW | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 185 | 93 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.2% | 10.0% | 12.2% | 3.5% | 4.81 | 4.42 | +2.3 | |
| Career | — | MLE | 35 | 28 | 125 | 528 | 103 | 47 | 26 | 80% | 3.6 | 19.5% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 4.9% | 4.24 | 5.30 | +0.1 | |
| / 200 IP | — | MLE | 56 | 45 | 200 | 843 | 164 | 75 | 42 | 80% | 3.6 | 19.5% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 4.9% | 4.24 | 5.30 | +1.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Greenville Drive · 17 IPFIP 7.27 → 9.34 (+2.07)K% 28.6% → 22.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 28.57% | — | ×0.770 | 22.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 10.71% | — | ×1.150 | 12.32% |
| HR / BF /BF | 9.52% | ÷1.000 | ×1.250 | 11.90% |
Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).
Result: FIP 7.27 → 9.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ROKFCL Red Sox · 5 IPFIP 2.93 → 4.43 (+1.50)K% 32.0% → 21.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 32.00% | — | ×0.680 | 21.76% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 20.00% | — | ×1.250 | 25.00% |
| HR / BF /BF | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×1.400 | 0.00% |
Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).
Result: FIP 2.93 → 4.43, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ASalem Red Sox · 99 IPFIP 2.94 → 4.07 (+1.13)K% 24.9% → 18.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 24.94% | — | ×0.740 | 18.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 6.73% | — | ×1.180 | 7.95% |
| HR / BF /BF | 2.00% | ÷0.933 | ×1.300 | 2.78% |
Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 87).
Result: FIP 2.94 → 4.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).