Matt Duffy — OGILVIE

Matt Duffy P Greenville Drive

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 205 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.2 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION22 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.43

FIP4.43

K%20.3%

BB%8.2%

K-BB%12.2%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 28 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$13M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Arb-1	$1M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	2	4	18	5	2	2	67%	1.4	27.8%	11.1%	16.7%	11.1%	10.38	8.26	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	2	4	18	5	2	2	67%	1.4	27.8%	11.1%	16.7%	11.1%	10.38	8.26	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	3	2	4	18	5	2	2	67%	1.4	27.8%	11.1%	16.7%	11.1%	10.38	8.18	—
2024	22	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	22	21	99	401	100	27	8	95%	4.5	18.5%	7.9%	10.5%	2.8%	2.83	4.07	—
2024	22	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	22	21	99	401	100	27	8	95%	4.5	18.5%	7.9%	10.5%	2.8%	2.83	4.07	—
2024	22	A RAW	Salem Red Sox	22	21	99	401	100	27	8	95%	4.5	24.9%	6.7%	18.2%	2.0%	2.83	2.95	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	10	5	22	109	32	14	8	50%	2.2	22.0%	12.3%	9.7%	11.9%	9.27	9.34	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	10	5	22	109	32	14	8	50%	2.2	22.0%	12.3%	9.7%	11.9%	9.27	9.34	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	ROK RAW	BOS	3	1	5	25	8	5	0	33%	1.8	32.0%	20.0%	12.0%	0.0%	6.75	2.93	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	BOS	7	4	17	84	24	9	8	57%	2.4	28.6%	10.7%	17.9%	9.5%	10.06	7.27	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	BOS	1	1	6	25	5	2	1	100%	5.8	20.3%	8.2%	12.2%	3.0%	4.43	4.43	+0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	BOS	—	—	28	134	37	16	9	—	—	27.7%	12.0%	15.7%	6.5%	8.27	8.32	-1.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	BOS	15	15	90	380	80	30	11	100%	6.0	21.0%	8.0%	13.0%	3.0%	4.38	4.35	+0.6
2028	26	MLB MLE	BOS	15	15	90	380	81	30	11	100%	6.0	21.3%	8.0%	13.3%	3.0%	4.34	4.32	+0.6
2029	27	MLB MLE	BOS	15	15	89	374	80	30	11	100%	5.9	21.3%	8.0%	13.3%	3.0%	4.35	4.35	+0.6
2030	28	MLB MLE	BOS	14	14	86	363	77	30	11	100%	6.1	21.2%	8.2%	13.0%	3.1%	4.40	4.44	+0.5
2031	29	MLB MLE	BOS	14	14	82	346	72	29	11	100%	5.9	20.9%	8.4%	12.6%	3.3%	4.50	4.57	+0.3
2032	30	MLB MLE	BOS	13	13	77	326	74	26	11	100%	5.9	22.6%	7.9%	14.7%	3.5%	4.49	4.48	+0.4
2033	31	MLB MLE	BOS	12	12	72	304	67	25	11	100%	6.0	22.2%	8.2%	14.0%	3.7%	4.60	4.68	+0.2
2034	32	MLB MLE	BOS	11	11	66	281	61	24	11	100%	6.0	21.7%	8.6%	13.1%	3.9%	4.78	4.90	0.0
2027	25	MLB CTX	BOS	7	7	39	165	35	13	5	100%	5.6	21.0%	8.0%	13.0%	2.9%	4.34	4.31	+0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	60	253	54	20	7	100%	6.0	21.3%	8.0%	13.3%	2.9%	4.30	4.28	+0.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	BOS	12	12	69	291	62	23	9	100%	5.8	21.3%	8.0%	13.3%	2.9%	4.31	4.31	+0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	BOS	12	12	72	304	64	25	9	100%	6.0	21.2%	8.2%	13.0%	3.0%	4.36	4.40	+0.4
2031	29	MLB CTX	BOS	12	12	72	304	64	25	10	100%	6.0	20.9%	8.4%	12.6%	3.2%	4.46	4.53	+0.3
2032	30	MLB CTX	BOS	12	12	69	291	66	23	10	100%	5.8	22.6%	7.9%	14.7%	3.4%	4.44	4.43	+0.3
2033	31	MLB CTX	BOS	11	11	66	279	62	23	10	100%	6.0	22.2%	8.2%	14.0%	3.6%	4.55	4.63	+0.2
2034	32	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	62	262	57	23	10	100%	6.2	21.7%	8.6%	13.1%	3.8%	4.73	4.85	0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		85	85	508	2143	462	175	69	100%	6.0	21.5%	8.2%	13.4%	3.2%	4.44	4.09	+4.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	182	69	27	100%	6.0	21.5%	8.2%	13.4%	3.2%	4.44	4.09	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		35	28	125	528	103	47	26	80%	3.6	19.5%	9.0%	10.5%	4.9%	4.24	5.30	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	45	200	843	164	75	42	80%	3.6	19.5%	9.0%	10.5%	4.9%	4.24	5.30	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Duffy (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.43	20.3%	8.2%	3.0%	—	4.34	21.2%	13.2%	268	-0.09	—	—	—
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	86
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	84
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	19.8%	10.9%	189	+0.28	3.06	349	84
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	83
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	83
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	82
Sean Harney R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	25	SP-	3.55	18.2%	9.8%	1.4%	.285	4.74	16.5%	5.1%	59	+1.19	3.55	123	82
Wil Jensen R 2022 · 4.69 FIP	24	SP-	4.69	20.2%	8.6%	4.0%	.261	4.20	21.4%	11.1%	173	-0.49	3.48	368	82
James McArthur R 2021 · 3.81 FIP	24	SP-	3.81	19.7%	7.9%	2.5%	.310	4.14	21.6%	13.7%	194	+0.33	3.53	352	81
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	81
Matt Peacock R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	24	SP-	4.20	16.0%	7.6%	2.7%	.300	4.27	13.6%	5.2%	202	+0.07	3.93	354	81
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	80
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.50	21.1%	13.0%	142	-0.21	1.87	251	80
Sam Benschoter R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP-	3.71	26.3%	9.2%	3.0%	.344	4.98	18.5%	8.4%	306	+1.27	3.62	441	79
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	79
Nick Sinacola R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	20.3%	7.6%	3.4%	.313	3.97	17.0%	8.6%	166	-0.23	3.56	357	79
Angel Araiza R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	16.7%	6.5%	3.8%	.287	3.79	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.78	3.40	289	79
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.7%	11.7%	237	-0.34	4.54	306	79
Noah Gotsis R 2021 · 3.48 FIP	25	SP-	3.48	16.5%	6.5%	1.7%	.296	4.25	15.9%	8.6%	90	+0.77	3.48	138	78
Steven Zobac R 2023 · 3.27 FIP	22	SP-	3.27	19.7%	7.5%	1.6%	.332	4.28	18.5%	11.0%	205	+1.01	3.25	296	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	80	21.4%	8.1%	1.26	4.46
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Michael Fulmer ('23)	3.4	96	20.3%	7.6%	0.99	3.94
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59