Michael Knorr
P
Sugar Land Space Cowboys
+0.0
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'5" / 245 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.79
FIP4.79
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.8%
BB%10.9%
K-BB%11.9%
IP50
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
STUF4045
CMD3540
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | 15 | 10 | 58 | 251 | 78 | 24 | 8 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 3.1% | 4.01 | 4.23 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 11 | 7 | 40 | 176 | 47 | 20 | 7 | 21.6% | 12.5% | 4.9% | 5.90 | 5.56 | -0.3 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 46 | 1 | 54 | 244 | 66 | 28 | 8 | 22.8% | 12.3% | 3.7% | 5.03 | 4.76 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 4 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 2 | 7 | 1 | — | — | — | 9.82 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | HOU | 50 | — | 50 | 211 | 48 | 25 | 7 | 22.8% | 11.7% | 3.4% | 4.89 | 4.89 | +0.0 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 54 | 233 | 50 | 32 | 8 | 21.5% | 13.6% | 3.5% | 5.23 | 4.56 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 50 | — | 50 | 209 | 48 | 24 | 7 | 22.9% | 11.5% | 3.4% | 4.84 | 4.84 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 47 | 23 | 7 | 22.9% | 11.3% | 3.4% | 4.82 | 4.83 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 48 | — | 48 | 201 | 46 | 23 | 7 | 22.8% | 11.3% | 3.4% | 4.83 | 4.85 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 46 | — | 46 | 195 | 44 | 22 | 7 | 22.6% | 11.4% | 3.4% | 4.86 | 4.90 | +0.0 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 45 | — | 45 | 189 | 42 | 22 | 7 | 22.3% | 11.5% | 3.5% | 4.93 | 4.97 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 43 | — | 43 | 181 | 40 | 21 | 6 | 22.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | 5.01 | 5.06 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 41 | — | 41 | 173 | 38 | 20 | 6 | 21.8% | 11.8% | 3.7% | 5.10 | 5.16 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | HOU | 39 | — | 39 | 164 | 35 | 20 | 6 | 21.4% | 12.0% | 3.8% | 5.20 | 5.27 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | HOU | 37 | — | 37 | 155 | 33 | 19 | 6 | 21.0% | 12.2% | 3.9% | 5.31 | 5.39 | -0.2 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | HOU | 34 | — | 34 | 145 | 30 | 18 | 6 | 20.6% | 12.5% | 4.0% | 5.44 | 5.52 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 76 | 18 | 155 | 693 | 155 | 87 | 27 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 3.8% | 4.98 | 4.90 | +0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 98 | 23 | 200 | 892 | 200 | 112 | 35 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 3.8% | 4.98 | 4.90 | +0.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Michael Knorr (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.89 | 22.8% | 11.7% | 3.4% | — | 4.84 | 22.8% | 11.4% | 146 | -0.05 | — | — | — |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.97 | 21.7% | 11.4% | 2.3% | .292 | 4.93 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 223 | +0.96 | 3.84 | 299 | 90 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.25 | 24.5% | 13.2% | 2.8% | .256 | 4.33 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 115 | +0.08 | 3.88 | 180 | 90 |
| Michael Flynn R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.32 | 26.5% | 11.2% | 3.7% | .299 | 4.62 | 23.6% | 11.9% | 58 | +0.30 | 3.86 | 134 | 87 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.22 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 3.0% | .273 | 4.53 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 88 | +0.31 | 3.70 | 187 | 86 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.85 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.07 | 3.23 | 161 | 86 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 2.7% | .232 | 5.13 | 18.0% | 7.0% | 180 | +1.43 | 3.70 | 223 | 85 |
| Jack Hartman R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.32 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 3.4% | .310 | 4.30 | 17.6% | 5.6% | 46 | -0.02 | 3.45 | 161 | 84 |
| Hunter Parsons R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.93 | 22.8% | 10.9% | 4.3% | .274 | 6.70 | 25.5% | 9.0% | 29 | +1.77 | 4.76 | 183 | 83 |
| Jake Barrett R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.13 | 20.1% | 11.5% | 4.1% | .267 | 2.91 | 26.9% | 15.2% | 69 | -2.22 | 1.48 | 230 | 83 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2028 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.1% | .265 | 3.87 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.98 | 3.45 | 315 | 83 |
| Collin Baumgartner R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.76 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 117 | 83 |
| Mason Vinyard R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.41 | 21.8% | 14.5% | 2.4% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 154 | 83 |
| Keagan Gillies R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.00 | 21.1% | 13.3% | 1.8% | .306 | 3.65 | 20.1% | 13.5% | 54 | -0.35 | 2.94 | 157 | 83 |
| Blake Goldsberry R 2026 · 5.29 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.29 | 23.6% | 11.6% | 4.9% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 117 | 83 |
| Ryan Middendorf R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.93 | 19.6% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .293 | 4.50 | 12.8% | -1.5% | 34 | -0.43 | 1.27 | 164 | 82 |
| Cale Coshow R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.60 | 23.1% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .300 | 3.68 | 23.0% | 12.8% | 63 | -0.92 | 3.09 | 377 | 82 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.45 | 19.9% | 9.8% | 3.3% | .278 | 4.78 | 22.7% | 10.3% | 89 | +0.33 | 2.65 | 315 | 82 |
| Juan Ramon Noriega R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.46 | 21.3% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .243 | 3.46 | 24.8% | 17.1% | 57 | -1.00 | 3.46 | 198 | 82 |
| Shawn Armstrong R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.33 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .282 | 3.20 | 26.9% | 17.2% | 144 | -1.13 | 1.79 | 618 | 82 |
| Colton Murray R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.05 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .295 | 4.28 | 21.8% | 13.1% | 41 | +0.23 | 3.34 | 187 | 82 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.