Michael Knorr — OGILVIE

Michael Knorr P Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Age 26 RHP 6'5" / 245 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION34 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA5.06

FIP5.06

K%21.8%

BB%12.3%

K-BB%9.5%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 40 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4045

CMD3540

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	10	58	251	78	24	8	67%	3.9	23.6%	11.1%	12.6%	3.3%	4.01	4.30	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	10	58	251	78	24	8	67%	3.9	23.6%	11.1%	12.6%	3.3%	4.01	4.30	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	10	58	251	78	24	8	67%	3.9	31.1%	9.6%	21.5%	3.2%	4.01	3.44	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	11	7	40	176	47	20	7	64%	3.6	21.6%	12.5%	9.1%	4.9%	5.90	5.56	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	11	7	40	176	47	20	7	64%	3.6	21.6%	12.5%	9.1%	4.9%	5.90	5.56	—
2024	24	AA RAW	Corpus Christi Hooks	11	7	40	176	47	20	7	64%	3.6	26.7%	11.4%	15.3%	4.0%	5.90	4.54	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	1	54	244	66	28	8	2%	1.2	22.2%	11.5%	10.7%	3.7%	5.03	4.74	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	1	54	244	66	28	8	2%	1.2	22.2%	11.5%	10.7%	3.7%	5.03	4.74	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	1	54	244	66	28	8	2%	1.2	27.0%	11.5%	15.6%	3.3%	5.03	4.14	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	33	4	34	147	42	22	5	12%	1.0	21.1%	14.5%	6.5%	4.2%	3.67	5.48	—
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	33	4	34	147	42	22	5	12%	1.0	21.1%	14.5%	6.5%	4.2%	3.67	5.48	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	ROK RAW	HOU	5	4	5	17	9	1	0	80%	1.0	52.9%	5.9%	47.1%	0.0%	0.00	-0.63	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	HOU	28	0	29	130	33	21	5	0%	1.0	25.4%	16.2%	9.2%	3.8%	4.30	5.11	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	HOU	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	21.8%	12.3%	9.5%	3.4%	5.06	5.06	-0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	HOU	—	—	40	172	47	25	6	—	—	27.6%	14.6%	13.0%	3.4%	3.87	5.42	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	HOU	66	0	69	291	64	35	10	0%	1.0	21.9%	12.1%	9.9%	3.4%	5.01	5.02	-0.4
2028	28	MLB MLE	HOU	64	0	67	282	62	34	10	0%	1.0	21.9%	12.0%	9.9%	3.5%	5.01	5.05	-0.4
2029	29	MLB MLE	HOU	61	0	64	270	59	33	10	0%	1.0	21.8%	12.1%	9.7%	3.6%	5.08	5.15	-0.4
2027	27	MLB CTX	HOU	28	0	29	122	27	15	4	0%	1.0	21.9%	12.1%	9.9%	3.4%	5.01	5.02	-0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	HOU	40	0	42	177	39	21	6	0%	1.1	21.9%	12.0%	9.9%	3.5%	5.01	5.05	-0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	HOU	45	0	47	198	43	24	7	0%	1.0	21.8%	12.1%	9.7%	3.6%	5.08	5.15	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		113	0	118	500	109	60	17	0%	1.0	21.9%	12.1%	9.8%	3.5%	5.04	4.70	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	184	101	29	0%	1.1	21.9%	12.1%	9.8%	3.5%	5.04	4.70	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		105	22	186	818	182	99	32	21%	1.8	22.3%	12.1%	10.2%	3.9%	4.65	4.91	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		113	24	200	880	196	107	35	21%	1.8	22.3%	12.1%	10.2%	3.9%	4.65	4.91	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michael Knorr (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.06	21.8%	12.3%	3.4%	—	5.07	21.9%	9.8%	200	+0.01	—	—	—
Ronald Peña R 2018 · 4.19 FIP	26	SU	4.19	23.4%	11.6%	2.9%	.273	4.52	18.7%	7.1%	88	+0.33	3.72	187	85
Daniel Corcino R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	21.7%	11.4%	2.2%	.292	4.91	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.98	3.84	299	85
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	84
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	84
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	84
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	84
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	83
Jeff Ames R 2017 · 3.94 FIP	26	SU	3.94	25.1%	13.4%	2.3%	.310	4.65	25.4%	10.8%	79	+0.71	3.85	272	83
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	83
R.J. Alaniz R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	26	SU	3.91	20.7%	8.9%	2.6%	.318	3.28	23.8%	15.0%	96	-0.63	2.45	362	83
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	83
Colton Murray R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	26	SU	3.97	21.2%	9.4%	2.7%	.295	4.27	21.8%	13.1%	41	+0.30	3.34	187	82
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	26	SU	4.46	19.9%	9.8%	3.3%	.278	4.79	22.7%	10.3%	89	+0.33	2.64	315	82
Héctor Neris R 2015 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.9%	10.0%	2.5%	.298	3.03	31.5%	23.7%	221	-0.97	2.03	682	82
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	82
Hunter Parsons R 2023 · 4.88 FIP	26	SU	4.88	22.0%	10.0%	4.3%	.274	6.70	25.5%	9.0%	29	+1.82	4.73	183	82
Cale Coshow R 2018 · 4.59 FIP	26	SU	4.59	23.1%	10.9%	3.8%	.300	3.68	23.0%	12.8%	63	-0.91	3.08	377	82
Taylor Floyd R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	25	SU	4.34	21.7%	10.8%	3.1%	.331	4.61	18.4%	8.9%	192	+0.27	3.48	359	82
Madison Younginer IV R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	26	SU	4.22	23.0%	9.8%	3.3%	.370	4.73	14.0%	-5.3%	27	+0.51	3.08	219	82
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	67	21.9%	12.1%	1.34	5.04
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58