Michael Knorr

P Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Age 27 RHP 6'5" / 245 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	AAHOU	11	7	40	5.90	4.54	26.7%	11.4%	—	K 21.6% · BB 12.5% · FIP 5.56
2025	25	MIX2 levels	46	1	54	5.03	4.14	27.0%	11.5%	—	K 22.5% · BB 11.5% · FIP 4.70
2026	26	MIX2 levels	33	4	34	3.67	4.47	28.6%	15.0%	—	K 21.8% · BB 14.5% · FIP 5.42
2027PROJ	27	MLBHOU	6	0	6	5.18	5.18	22.0%	13.4%	-0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	28	MLBHOU	18	0	19	5.15	5.18	22.0%	13.2%	-0.1
2029PROJ59% MLB	29	MLBHOU	22	0	23	5.18	5.25	21.9%	13.1%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 0.4, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsGrant Black (age 27) · Luis Mateo (age 27) · Spencer Bivens (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132123vR 115

ERA5.18

FIP5.18

K%22.0%

BB%13.4%

K-BB%8.5%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	10	58	251	78	24	8	67%	3.9	23.6%	11.1%	12.6%	3.3%	4.01	4.30	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	10	58	251	78	24	8	67%	3.9	31.1%	9.6%	21.5%	3.2%	4.01	3.44	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	11	7	40	176	47	20	7	64%	3.6	21.6%	12.5%	9.1%	4.9%	5.90	5.56	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	11	7	40	176	47	20	7	64%	3.6	21.6%	12.5%	9.1%	4.9%	5.90	5.56	—
2024	24	AA RAW	Corpus Christi Hooks	11	7	40	176	47	20	7	64%	3.6	26.7%	11.4%	15.3%	4.0%	5.90	4.54	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	1	54	244	66	28	8	2%	1.2	22.5%	11.5%	11.1%	3.7%	5.03	4.70	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	1	54	244	66	28	8	2%	1.2	22.5%	11.5%	11.1%	3.7%	5.03	4.70	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	1	54	244	66	28	8	2%	1.2	27.0%	11.5%	15.6%	3.3%	5.03	4.14	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	4	34	147	42	22	5	12%	1.0	21.8%	14.5%	7.3%	4.2%	3.67	5.42	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	4	34	147	42	22	5	12%	1.0	21.8%	14.5%	7.3%	4.2%	3.67	5.42	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	4	34	147	42	22	5	12%	1.0	28.6%	15.0%	13.6%	3.4%	3.67	4.47	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	HOU	6	0	6	25	6	3	1	0%	1.0	22.0%	13.4%	8.5%	3.4%	5.18	5.18	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	HOU	43	0	45	192	42	25	7	0%	1.1	22.0%	13.2%	8.8%	3.4%	5.15	5.18	-0.3
2029	29	MLB MLE	HOU	37	0	38	162	35	21	6	0%	1.0	21.9%	13.1%	8.8%	3.6%	5.18	5.25	-0.3
2028	28	MLB CTX	HOU	18	0	19	80	18	11	3	0%	1.1	22.0%	13.2%	8.8%	3.4%	5.15	5.18	-0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	HOU	22	0	23	97	21	13	3	0%	1.0	21.9%	13.1%	8.8%	3.6%	5.18	5.25	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		40	0	42	177	39	23	6	0%	1.0	21.9%	13.1%	8.8%	3.5%	5.17	4.83	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	186	110	29	0%	1.1	21.9%	13.1%	8.8%	3.5%	5.17	4.83	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		105	22	186	818	185	99	32	21%	1.8	22.6%	12.1%	10.4%	3.9%	4.65	4.89	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		113	24	200	880	198	107	35	21%	1.8	22.6%	12.1%	10.4%	3.9%	4.65	4.89	-1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 29 IPFIP 5.11 → 5.42 (+0.31)K% 25.4% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.38%	—	×0.860	21.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.15%	—	×0.900	14.54%
HR / BF /BF	3.85%	÷1.000	×1.100	4.23%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.11 → 5.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 28 IPFIP 4.56 → 5.01 (+0.45)K% 23.8% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.85%	—	×0.860	20.51%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.77%	—	×0.900	9.69%
HR / BF /BF	3.85%	÷0.961	×1.100	4.40%

Result: FIP 4.56 → 5.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 26 IPFIP 3.51 → 4.35 (+0.84)K% 30.7% → 24.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.70%	—	×0.810	24.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.28%	—	×1.100	13.51%
HR / BF /BF	2.63%	÷1.057	×1.200	2.99%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 111).

Result: FIP 3.51 → 4.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 40 IPFIP 4.47 → 5.56 (+1.09)K% 26.7% → 21.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.70%	—	×0.810	21.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.36%	—	×1.100	12.50%
HR / BF /BF	3.98%	÷0.970	×1.200	4.92%

Result: FIP 4.47 → 5.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Asheville Tourists · 41 IPFIP 4.20 → 5.03 (+0.83)K% 30.0% → 23.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.00%	—	×0.770	23.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.44%	—	×1.150	10.86%
HR / BF /BF	4.44%	÷1.218	×1.250	4.56%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 144).

Result: FIP 4.20 → 5.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 17 IPFIP 1.49 → 2.46 (+0.97)K% 33.8% → 25.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.80%	—	×0.740	25.01%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.86%	—	×1.180	11.63%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.993	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 99).

Result: FIP 1.49 → 2.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michael Knorr (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.4%	—	5.21	21.9%	8.8%	84	+0.03	—	—	—
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	85
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	83
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	83
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	82
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	82
Dennis Sarfate R 2008 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.0%	16.7%	2.2%	.263	4.81	19.8%	5.9%	23	+0.39	4.42	103	81
Jake Stinnett R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	27	SW	4.23	21.1%	12.2%	2.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	356	81
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	81
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	81
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	80
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	80
Beck Wheeler R 2016 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.9%	14.5%	2.9%	.360	5.40	15.3%	3.1%	58	+0.98	3.46	173	80
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	80
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	80
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	79
Fernery Ozuna R 2023 · 5.65 FIP	27	SU	5.65	19.0%	11.6%	4.9%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	157	79
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	79
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	78
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2018 · 5.07 FIP	27	SU	5.07	22.2%	11.4%	4.4%	.256	4.43	23.3%	9.7%	39	-0.64	2.64	315	78
Jarret Whorff R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	25	SU	4.04	18.9%	10.2%	2.3%	.271	4.52	19.6%	12.0%	123	+0.48	3.88	257	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	48	21.9%	13.2%	1.34	5.17
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*