Darren Bowen

P Wichita Wind Surge

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 180 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	24	AAMIN	27	16	84	5.14	5.71	15.5%	10.2%	—	K 12.6% · BB 11.2% · FIP 6.50
2026	25	AAMIN	40	0	66	6.14	4.77	20.5%	11.4%	—	K 16.6% · BB 12.6% · FIP 5.50
2027PROJ	26	MLBMIN	1	0	1	5.73	5.73	14.7%	12.0%	-0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBMIN	19	0	20	5.61	5.63	15.5%	11.8%	-0.2
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBMIN	26	0	27	5.57	5.62	16.0%	11.8%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsDennis O'Grady (age 26) · Cameron Foster (age 25) · Colby Morris (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 142134vR 126

ERA5.73

FIP5.73

K%14.7%

BB%12.0%

K-BB%2.6%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	19	15	56	230	59	25	2	79%	2.9	19.0%	12.8%	6.2%	1.3%	3.88	3.82	—
2023	22	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	19	15	56	230	59	25	2	79%	2.9	25.7%	10.9%	14.8%	0.9%	3.88	2.79	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	18	17	73	328	71	26	7	94%	4.0	16.7%	9.1%	7.6%	2.2%	6.07	4.08	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	18	17	73	328	71	26	7	94%	4.0	16.7%	9.1%	7.6%	2.2%	6.07	4.08	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Cedar Rapids Kernels	18	17	73	328	71	26	7	94%	4.0	21.6%	7.9%	13.7%	2.1%	6.07	3.47	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	27	16	84	373	58	38	17	59%	3.1	12.6%	11.2%	1.4%	5.5%	5.14	6.50	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	27	16	84	373	58	38	17	59%	3.1	12.6%	11.2%	1.4%	5.5%	5.14	6.50	—
2025	24	AA RAW	Wichita Wind Surge	27	16	84	373	58	38	17	59%	3.1	15.5%	10.2%	5.4%	4.6%	5.14	5.71	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	40	0	66	298	61	34	10	0%	1.6	16.6%	12.6%	4.0%	4.0%	6.14	5.50	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	40	0	66	298	61	34	10	0%	1.6	16.6%	12.6%	4.0%	4.0%	6.14	5.50	—
2026	25	AA RAW	Wichita Wind Surge	40	0	66	298	61	34	10	0%	1.6	20.5%	11.4%	9.1%	3.4%	6.14	4.77	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	MIN	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	14.7%	12.0%	2.6%	3.6%	5.73	5.73	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	MIN	52	0	54	228	35	27	8	0%	1.0	15.5%	11.8%	3.7%	3.6%	5.61	5.63	-0.6
2029	28	MLB MLE	MIN	43	0	46	193	31	23	7	0%	1.1	16.0%	11.8%	4.2%	3.6%	5.57	5.62	-0.5
2030	29	MLB MLE	MIN	39	0	41	173	28	21	6	0%	1.0	16.1%	11.9%	4.2%	3.7%	5.61	5.68	-0.5
2031	30	MLB MLE	MIN	35	0	37	156	25	19	6	0%	1.1	16.0%	12.1%	3.8%	3.9%	5.73	5.83	-0.5
2028	27	MLB CTX	MIN	19	0	20	84	13	10	3	0%	1.1	15.5%	11.8%	3.7%	3.6%	5.61	5.63	-0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	MIN	26	0	27	114	18	13	4	0%	1.0	16.0%	11.8%	4.2%	3.6%	5.57	5.62	-0.3
2030	29	MLB CTX	MIN	28	0	29	122	20	15	5	0%	1.0	16.1%	11.9%	4.2%	3.7%	5.61	5.68	-0.4
2031	30	MLB CTX	MIN	28	0	29	122	20	15	5	0%	1.0	16.0%	12.1%	3.8%	3.9%	5.73	5.83	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		100	0	105	445	71	53	17	0%	1.1	15.9%	11.9%	4.0%	3.7%	5.63	5.31	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	135	101	32	0%	1.1	15.9%	11.9%	4.0%	3.7%	5.63	5.31	-1.8
Career	—	MLE		104	48	278	1229	195	139	43	46%	2.7	15.8%	11.3%	4.6%	3.5%	5.37	5.11	-2.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		75	34	200	883	140	100	31	46%	2.7	15.8%	11.3%	4.6%	3.5%	5.37	5.11	-2.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAWichita Wind Surge · 66 IPFIP 4.66 → 5.50 (+0.84)K% 20.5% → 16.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.47%	—	×0.810	16.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.41%	—	×1.100	12.55%
HR / BF /BF	3.36%	÷1.000	×1.200	4.03%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.66 → 5.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAWichita Wind Surge · 84 IPFIP 5.58 → 6.50 (+0.92)K% 15.5% → 12.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.55%	—	×0.810	12.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.19%	—	×1.100	11.21%
HR / BF /BF	4.56%	÷0.986	×1.200	5.55%

Result: FIP 5.58 → 6.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 73 IPFIP 3.45 → 4.08 (+0.63)K% 21.6% → 16.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.65%	—	×0.770	16.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.93%	—	×1.150	9.12%
HR / BF /BF	2.13%	÷1.191	×1.250	2.24%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 138).

Result: FIP 3.45 → 4.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AModesto Nuts · 56 IPFIP 2.79 → 3.82 (+1.04)K% 25.7% → 19.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.65%	—	×0.740	18.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.87%	—	×1.180	12.83%
HR / BF /BF	0.87%	÷0.883	×1.300	1.28%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 77).

Result: FIP 2.79 → 3.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Darren Bowen (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.6%	—	5.64	15.8%	4.0%	141	-0.09	—	—	—
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	88
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	84
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	84
Cooper Adams R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SW	5.42	13.0%	12.2%	3.4%	.275	4.32	21.7%	10.4%	141	-1.10	3.05	221	84
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	82
Ranfi Casimiro R 2018 · 4.62 FIP	26	SW	4.62	16.4%	10.7%	2.8%	.285	4.93	8.4%	-0.2%	16	+0.31	3.81	420	82
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	82
Robbie Peto R 2023 · 5.75 FIP	25	SW	5.75	15.3%	13.4%	4.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	5.39	232	81
Logan Verrett R 2016 · 5.19 FIP	26	SW	5.19	15.4%	10.6%	3.7%	.283	4.65	17.8%	11.8%	94	-0.54	3.81	550	80
Nick Hull R 2024 · 4.62 FIP	24	SW	4.62	19.0%	12.2%	2.9%	.296	5.00	16.8%	6.2%	111	+0.38	4.26	292	80
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	79
Paulshawn Pasqualotto R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	15.6%	9.5%	3.4%	.354	3.77	20.2%	10.8%	111	-1.07	3.73	186	79
Cullen Kafka R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	24	SW	4.95	14.2%	12.1%	2.8%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	148	79
Donovan Hand R 2013 · 4.72 FIP	27	SW	4.72	12.9%	7.0%	3.3%	.279	4.30	11.1%	6.8%	97	-0.42	4.30	305	79
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	79
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	78
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	78
Andrew Bash R 2023 · 4.61 FIP	26	SW	4.61	17.9%	12.7%	2.6%	.249	4.02	17.4%	7.8%	231	-0.59	3.46	483	77
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	77
Felipe Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	25	SW	4.60	18.3%	9.2%	3.4%	.337	3.27	22.7%	12.7%	50	-1.33	3.27	339	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	50	15.5%	11.9%	1.42	5.65
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Dave Stevens ('00)	1.3	50	14.6%	11.3%	1.76	6.02
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Dennis Powell ('85-'93, -2 WAR*)	1.7	49	17.6%*	10.1%*	1.18*	5.31*