Ryan Bergert

P Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 27 RHP 6'1" / 210 lbs AAA Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 1.5 · 2027

Overview

AAASP40-MANArb-1FA 2031

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	AASD	23	23	98	4.78	3.26	20.9%	7.9%	—	K 16.9% · BB 8.7% · FIP 3.94
2025	25	MIX2 levels	30	26	121	3.79	4.07	22.6%	10.0%	1.9	K 21.4% · BB 9.7% · FIP 4.27
2026	26	AAAKC	3	3	10	2.79	3.93	23.8%	11.9%	—	K 23.8% · BB 11.9% · FIP 3.90
2027PROJ	27	MLBKC	11	11	68	4.51	4.75	20.2%	10.4%	0.5
2028PROJ64% MLB	28	MLBKC	10	10	63	4.52	4.65	20.2%	10.3%	0.5
2029PROJ74% MLB	29	MLBKC	9	9	52	4.66	4.77	19.8%	10.3%	0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.9 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service2.000First FA2031Super-2

2027Arb-1$2M2028Arb-2$2M2029Arb-3$2M2030Arb-4$2M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

K%52

xwOBA vs41

FB Velo34

CompsTaylor Jungmann (age 27) · Jared Mortensen (age 27) · Rorik Maltrud (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.51

FIP4.75

K%20.2%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%9.7%

Proj IP151

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 151 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4040

CMD4545

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3493.4

Whiff%

p4023.9%

p5222.6%

xwOBA vs

p410.322

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2025

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$2M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.4M
2028	Arb-2	$2M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.4M
2029	Arb-3	$2M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-4	$2M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$6M	+$0.8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	7	3	11	37	14	0	0	43%	1.6	37.8%	0.0%	37.8%	0.0%	0.00	-0.10	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	7	3	11	37	14	0	0	43%	1.6	37.8%	0.0%	37.8%	0.0%	0.00	0.55	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	24	24	103	472	129	42	18	100%	4.3	21.0%	10.2%	10.8%	5.2%	5.84	5.46	—
2022	22	A+ RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	24	24	103	472	129	42	18	100%	4.3	27.3%	8.9%	18.4%	3.8%	5.84	4.09	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	20	106	431	126	46	4	87%	4.6	23.0%	12.1%	10.9%	1.4%	2.73	3.44	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	20	106	431	126	46	4	87%	4.6	29.2%	10.7%	18.6%	0.9%	2.73	2.51	—
2024	24	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	23	23	98	417	87	33	7	100%	4.3	16.9%	8.7%	8.2%	2.1%	4.78	3.94	—
2024	24	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	23	23	98	417	87	33	7	100%	4.3	16.9%	8.7%	8.2%	2.1%	4.78	3.94	—
2024	24	AA RAW	San Antonio Missions	23	23	98	417	87	33	7	100%	4.3	20.9%	7.9%	12.9%	1.7%	4.78	3.26	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	26	121	518	117	52	15	87%	4.0	21.4%	9.7%	11.7%	3.2%	3.79	4.27	+1.6
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	26	121	518	117	52	15	87%	4.0	21.4%	9.7%	11.7%	3.2%	3.79	4.27	+1.6
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	26	121	518	117	52	15	87%	4.0	22.6%	10.0%	12.5%	2.9%	3.79	4.07	+1.9
2026	26	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	3	3	10	42	10	5	1	100%	3.2	23.8%	11.9%	11.9%	2.4%	2.79	3.90	—
2026	26	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	3	3	10	42	10	5	1	100%	3.2	23.8%	11.9%	11.9%	2.4%	2.79	3.90	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	Omaha Storm Chasers	3	3	10	42	10	5	1	100%	3.2	23.8%	11.9%	11.9%	2.4%	2.79	3.93	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			19	15	76	323	73	34	8	79%	4.0	22.6%	10.5%	12.1%	2.5%	3.66	3.89	+1.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	KC	11	11	68	287	58	30	9	100%	6.2	20.2%	10.4%	9.7%	3.0%	4.51	4.75	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	KC	16	16	98	412	83	42	13	100%	6.1	20.2%	10.3%	9.9%	3.1%	4.65	4.78	+0.7
2029	29	MLB MLE	KC	12	12	70	295	58	31	10	100%	5.8	19.8%	10.3%	9.4%	3.3%	4.79	4.90	+0.4
2030	30	MLB MLE	KC	9	9	53	223	43	23	8	100%	5.9	19.2%	10.5%	8.7%	3.4%	4.95	5.08	+0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	KC	10	10	63	266	54	27	8	100%	6.3	20.2%	10.3%	9.9%	2.9%	4.52	4.65	+0.5
2029	29	MLB CTX	KC	9	9	52	220	43	23	7	100%	5.8	19.8%	10.3%	9.4%	3.0%	4.66	4.77	+0.3
2030	30	MLB CTX	KC	7	7	43	182	35	19	6	100%	6.1	19.2%	10.5%	8.7%	3.2%	4.81	4.94	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		45	41	233	984	204	103	28	91%	5.2	20.7%	10.4%	10.3%	2.8%	4.32	4.22	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		39	35	200	845	175	88	24	91%	5.2	20.7%	10.4%	10.3%	2.8%	4.32	4.22	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		110	99	449	1917	404	192	57	90%	4.1	21.1%	10.0%	11.1%	3.0%	4.11	4.21	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	44	200	855	180	85	25	90%	4.1	21.1%	10.0%	11.1%	3.0%	4.11	4.21	+1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 10 IPFIP 3.90 → 4.17 (+0.26)K% 23.8% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.81%	—	×0.860	20.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.90%	—	×0.900	10.71%
HR / BF /BF	2.38%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.62%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.90 → 4.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 45 IPFIP 4.33 → 4.72 (+0.39)K% 22.6% → 19.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.56%	—	×0.860	19.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.23%	—	×0.900	8.31%
HR / BF /BF	3.59%	÷0.981	×1.100	4.02%

Result: FIP 4.33 → 4.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AASan Antonio Missions · 98 IPFIP 3.26 → 3.94 (+0.67)K% 20.9% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.86%	—	×0.810	16.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.91%	—	×1.100	8.71%
HR / BF /BF	1.68%	÷0.953	×1.200	2.11%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 91).

Result: FIP 3.26 → 3.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 62 IPFIP 2.65 → 3.74 (+1.09)K% 29.5% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.53%	—	×0.770	22.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.02%	—	×1.150	12.68%
HR / BF /BF	1.18%	÷0.848	×1.250	1.74%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 70).

Result: FIP 2.65 → 3.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AASan Antonio Missions · 44 IPFIP 2.27 → 3.00 (+0.74)K% 28.8% → 23.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.81%	—	×0.810	23.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.17%	—	×1.100	11.19%
HR / BF /BF	0.56%	÷0.820	×1.200	0.83%

Result: FIP 2.27 → 3.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 103 IPFIP 4.01 → 5.46 (+1.45)K% 27.3% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.33%	—	×0.770	21.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.90%	—	×1.150	10.23%
HR / BF /BF	3.81%	÷0.920	×1.250	5.18%

Result: FIP 4.01 → 5.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKACL Padres · 11 IPFIP -0.10 → 0.93 (+1.02)K% 37.8% → 25.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.84%	—	×0.680	25.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.250	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP -0.10 → 0.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Bergert (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.75	20.2%	10.4%	3.0%	—	4.89	19.8%	9.5%	220	+0.14	—	—	—
Taylor Jungmann R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	27	SP-	3.88	18.8%	11.1%	1.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	435	77
Jared Mortensen R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	4.99	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.57	4.42	200	77
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	76
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	76
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	76
Daniel Ponce de Leon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	27	SP	4.09	22.8%	12.0%	2.5%	.246	5.09	22.7%	10.1%	182	+1.00	3.35	768	76
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	75
Deck McGuire R 2016 · 5.23 FIP	27	SP	5.23	17.2%	8.5%	4.6%	.287	4.05	19.8%	9.4%	277	-1.18	3.41	622	74
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	74
Nic Swanson R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	25	SP	4.91	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.286	5.43	19.9%	6.5%	132	+0.52	4.29	438	74
Chi Chi González R 2019 · 4.99 FIP	27	SP	4.99	16.7%	10.5%	3.6%	.302	4.55	15.3%	7.8%	225	-0.44	4.01	800	73
Roman Angelo R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP	3.99	22.6%	11.4%	2.5%	.291	5.72	18.6%	5.2%	169	+1.73	3.99	290	73
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	73
Jay Witasick R 2000 · 4.76 FIP	27	SP-	4.76	17.4%	9.8%	3.4%	.318	3.20	24.2%	16.1%	193	-1.56	2.76	731	73
Chandler Champlain R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	25	SP	4.72	16.7%	8.1%	3.6%	.298	4.77	15.3%	8.7%	247	+0.05	4.56	628	72
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	28	SP	4.07	15.5%	9.1%	2.0%	.306	4.73	9.0%	-1.2%	38	+0.66	4.07	203	72
Zach Fruit R 2024 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	19.3%	14.1%	1.9%	.258	5.03	15.4%	-0.2%	44	+0.74	4.29	151	72
Brad Peacock R 2014 · 4.73 FIP	26	SP	4.73	20.2%	11.2%	3.5%	.302	3.50	24.9%	15.4%	281	-1.23	2.97	748	72
Justin Armbruester R 2024 · 5.73 FIP	25	SP	5.73	20.2%	11.1%	5.3%	.289	1.49	27.5%	21.9%	15	-4.24	1.49	373	71
Dom Hamel R 2024 · 5.31 FIP	25	SP	5.31	18.3%	11.9%	4.1%	.330	4.96	17.9%	8.8%	180	-0.35	3.61	547	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	90	20.4%	10.5%	1.17	4.49
Dick Kelley ('64-'71, 3 WAR*)	2.6	87	21.4%*	10.6%*	1.04*	4.26*
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	85	21.2%	10.9%	1.17	4.06
Adam Conley ('21)	2.2	87	19.8%	9.4%	1.16	4.71
Jim Ray ('65-'74, 2 WAR*)	3.1	88	20.5%*	10.4%*	1.14*	4.38*
Paul Gibson ('88-'96, 2 WAR*)	2.8	80	19.0%*	9.5%*	1.18*	4.37*
Brian Tallet ('11)	2.3	92	16.5%	10.4%	1.13	4.79