Ryan Bergert — OGILVIE

Ryan Bergert P Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 26 RHP 6'1" / 210 lbs AAA Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 1.5 · 2027 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION10 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.50

FIP4.74

K%19.9%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%9.4%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 22 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$7M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4040

CMD4545

K†4550

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3493.4

Whiff%

p4023.9%

p5222.6%

xwOBA vs

p410.322

FB+5.2 (49%)

SL+3.5 (43%)

SI (7%)

CH-3.5 (7%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-1	$2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-2	$3M	—	—	—
2030	Arb-3	$3M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$0.1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	21	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	7	3	11	37	14	0	0	43%	1.6	37.8%	0.0%	37.8%	0.0%	0.00	-0.10	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	7	3	11	37	14	0	0	43%	1.6	37.8%	0.0%	37.8%	0.0%	0.00	0.55	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	24	24	103	472	129	42	18	100%	4.3	21.0%	10.2%	10.8%	5.2%	5.84	5.46	—
2022	22	A+ RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	24	24	103	472	129	42	18	100%	4.3	27.3%	8.9%	18.4%	3.8%	5.84	4.09	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	20	106	431	126	46	4	87%	4.6	23.0%	12.1%	10.9%	1.4%	2.73	3.44	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	20	106	431	126	46	4	87%	4.6	23.0%	12.1%	10.9%	1.4%	2.73	3.44	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	20	106	431	126	46	4	87%	4.6	29.2%	10.7%	18.6%	0.9%	2.73	2.51	—
2024	24	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	23	23	98	417	87	33	7	100%	4.3	16.9%	8.7%	8.2%	2.1%	4.78	3.94	—
2024	24	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	23	23	98	417	87	33	7	100%	4.3	16.9%	8.7%	8.2%	2.1%	4.78	3.94	—
2024	24	AA RAW	San Antonio Missions	23	23	98	417	87	33	7	100%	4.3	20.9%	7.9%	12.9%	1.7%	4.78	3.26	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	26	121	518	117	52	15	87%	4.0	21.1%	9.7%	11.5%	3.2%	3.79	4.29	+0.9
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	26	121	518	117	52	15	87%	4.0	21.1%	9.7%	11.5%	3.2%	3.79	4.29	+0.9
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	26	121	518	117	52	15	87%	4.0	22.6%	10.0%	12.5%	2.9%	3.79	4.07	+1.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			19	15	76	323	73	34	8	79%	4.0	22.6%	10.5%	12.1%	2.5%	3.66	3.89	+0.9
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	3	3	10	42	10	5	1	100%	3.2	—	—	—	—	2.79	—	—
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	3	3	10	42	10	5	1	100%	3.2	—	—	—	—	2.79	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AAA RAW	KC	3	3	10	42	10	5	1	100%	3.2	23.8%	11.9%	11.9%	2.4%	2.79	3.90	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	KC	2	2	13	54	11	6	2	100%	6.4	19.9%	10.5%	9.4%	2.9%	4.50	4.74	+0.0
ROS	26	MLB CTX	KC	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	19.9%	10.5%	9.4%	2.7%	4.38	4.62	+0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	KC	—	—	22	96	21	11	3	—	—	21.6%	11.1%	10.5%	2.7%	3.76	2.69	+0.5
FULL	26	MLB A+C	KC	—	—	1	5	1	1	0	—	—	19.9%	10.5%	9.4%	2.7%	4.38	4.24	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	KC	25	25	153	645	130	66	19	100%	6.1	20.1%	10.3%	9.8%	3.0%	4.62	4.73	+0.3
2028	28	MLB MLE	KC	25	25	153	645	130	66	20	100%	6.1	20.2%	10.2%	9.9%	3.1%	4.70	4.78	+0.2
2029	29	MLB MLE	KC	24	24	146	616	121	64	20	100%	6.1	19.7%	10.3%	9.3%	3.2%	4.82	4.91	-0.0
2030	30	MLB MLE	KC	23	23	137	579	110	61	20	100%	6.0	19.0%	10.6%	8.4%	3.4%	4.98	5.10	-0.3
2027	27	MLB CTX	KC	11	11	65	274	55	28	8	100%	5.9	20.1%	10.3%	9.8%	2.8%	4.50	4.61	+0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	KC	16	16	96	405	82	42	12	100%	6.0	20.2%	10.2%	9.9%	2.9%	4.57	4.65	+0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	KC	18	18	106	448	88	46	13	100%	5.9	19.7%	10.3%	9.3%	3.0%	4.69	4.78	-0.0
2030	30	MLB CTX	KC	18	18	109	460	88	49	15	100%	6.1	19.0%	10.6%	8.4%	3.2%	4.84	4.96	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		82	78	454	1916	387	199	55	95%	5.5	20.2%	10.4%	9.8%	2.9%	4.50	4.30	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	34	200	845	171	88	24	95%	5.5	20.2%	10.4%	9.8%	2.9%	4.50	4.30	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		110	99	449	1917	402	192	57	90%	4.1	21.0%	10.0%	11.0%	3.0%	4.11	4.22	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	44	200	855	179	85	25	90%	4.1	21.0%	10.0%	11.0%	3.0%	4.11	4.22	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Bergert (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.74	19.9%	10.5%	2.9%	—	4.81	20.0%	9.7%	451	+0.07	—	—	—
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	85
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	80
Burch Smith R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	27	SP	3.93	19.5%	12.6%	1.6%	.234	4.43	22.2%	10.5%	192	+0.50	3.50	382	80
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	79
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	78
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	78
Jake Walters R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	17.0%	9.4%	2.1%	.316	5.89	14.8%	0.9%	72	+1.86	3.51	261	78
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	78
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	78
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	78
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	77
Brandon Birdsell R 2023 · 3.91 FIP	23	SP	3.91	17.1%	8.3%	2.2%	.266	4.05	19.2%	13.6%	154	+0.14	3.87	262	76
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	25	SP-	4.90	19.1%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.05	22.7%	14.3%	222	-0.85	3.90	538	76
Nick Pasquale R 2017 · 4.74 FIP	26	SP-	4.74	16.8%	12.7%	2.6%	.306	3.80	17.9%	6.3%	50	-0.94	3.19	308	76
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	75
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	75
Justin Armbruester R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SP	4.44	17.3%	9.6%	2.9%	.271	5.30	20.4%	9.9%	135	+0.86	1.49	373	75
Emerson Hancock R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP	4.30	21.1%	10.2%	3.1%	.288	4.33	18.3%	11.3%	428	+0.03	3.24	669	75
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.50	21.1%	13.0%	142	-0.21	1.87	251	75
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	145	19.8%	10.4%	1.22	4.72
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36