Dom Hamel
P
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders
Age 27
RHP
6'2" / 206 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.4 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION79 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128118vR 109
ERA4.80
FIP4.80
K%20.9%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%10.9%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 144 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
SI (8%)
SL (62%)
FB (23%)
CT (8%)
CH-0.5 (8%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | FCL Mets | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.5 | 77.8% | 0.0% | 77.8% | 0.0% | 0.00 | -3.47 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | FCL Mets | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.5 | 77.8% | 0.0% | 77.8% | 0.0% | 0.00 | -1.57 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 24 | 119 | 490 | 145 | 54 | 5 | 96% | 4.8 | 22.4% | 12.9% | 9.5% | 1.5% | 3.25 | 3.65 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 24 | 119 | 490 | 145 | 54 | 5 | 96% | 4.8 | 29.6% | 11.0% | 18.6% | 1.0% | 3.25 | 2.57 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | 26 | 25 | 124 | 527 | 160 | 49 | 12 | 96% | 4.8 | 24.6% | 10.2% | 14.4% | 3.2% | 3.85 | 4.08 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | 26 | 25 | 124 | 527 | 160 | 49 | 12 | 96% | 4.8 | 30.4% | 9.3% | 21.1% | 2.3% | 3.85 | 2.96 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 27 | 27 | 125 | 582 | 124 | 77 | 23 | 100% | 4.6 | 18.7% | 13.9% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 6.79 | 5.41 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 27 | 27 | 125 | 582 | 124 | 77 | 23 | 100% | 4.6 | 21.3% | 13.2% | 8.1% | 4.0% | 6.79 | 5.36 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 11 | 69 | 304 | 75 | 22 | 12 | 34% | 2.1 | 22.1% | 7.8% | 14.4% | 3.3% | 5.24 | 4.04 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 11 | 69 | 304 | 75 | 22 | 12 | 34% | 2.1 | 24.7% | 7.2% | 17.4% | 3.9% | 5.24 | 4.15 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 17 | 16 | 79 | 371 | 65 | 43 | 14 | 94% | 4.6 | 15.4% | 12.2% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 6.95 | 5.62 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | NYY | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 57 | 27 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.9% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 3.3% | 4.80 | 4.80 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | NYY | 1 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.9% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 3.4% | 4.87 | 4.87 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 144 | 645 | 122 | 70 | 23 | — | — | 19.0% | 10.9% | 8.0% | 3.6% | 5.98 | 5.25 | +0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 6 | 27 | 6 | 3 | 1 | — | — | 20.9% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 3.4% | 4.87 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 24 | 24 | 145 | 611 | 128 | 60 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.9% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 3.4% | 4.80 | 4.83 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | NYY | 23 | 23 | 138 | 584 | 121 | 58 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.7% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 3.5% | 4.85 | 4.92 | +0.8 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 10 | 10 | 62 | 262 | 55 | 26 | 9 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.9% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 3.5% | 4.87 | 4.90 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | NYY | 14 | 14 | 82 | 346 | 72 | 34 | 13 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.7% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 3.6% | 4.92 | 4.99 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 26 | 25 | 151 | 638 | 131 | 63 | 23 | 96% | 5.8 | 20.6% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 3.5% | 4.87 | 4.55 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 33 | 200 | 847 | 174 | 84 | 31 | 96% | 5.8 | 20.6% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 3.5% | 4.87 | 4.55 | +2.0 | ||
| Career | — | 129 | 105 | 518 | 2283 | 480 | 266 | 72 | 81% | 4.0 | 21.0% | 11.7% | 9.3% | 3.2% | 5.05 | 4.54 | +5.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 41 | 200 | 881 | 185 | 103 | 28 | 81% | 4.0 | 21.0% | 11.7% | 9.3% | 3.2% | 5.05 | 4.54 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dom Hamel (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.80 | 20.9% | 10.0% | 3.3% | — | 4.87 | 20.8% | 10.9% | 283 | +0.07 | — | — | — |
| Antonio Guzman R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.60 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 1.2% | .328 | 3.63 | 20.6% | 11.3% | 170 | +0.03 | 3.22 | 254 | 72 |
| Justin Topa R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.05 | 15.1% | 7.9% | 2.2% | .374 | 2.66 | 19.2% | 12.6% | 40 | -1.39 | 2.66 | 259 | 71 |
| Burch Smith R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.94 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .234 | 4.41 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 192 | +0.47 | 3.39 | 382 | 71 |
| Connor Schultz R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.85 | 21.5% | 10.9% | 4.0% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 171 | 70 |
| Dawson Netz R 2024 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 69 |
| Chase Whitley R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.04 | 19.5% | 7.0% | 3.1% | .217 | 3.24 | 18.0% | 11.8% | 81 | -0.80 | 3.11 | 159 | 69 |
| Isaac Coffey R 2025 · 3.95 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.95 | 22.9% | 9.5% | 2.9% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 287 | 68 |
| Raynel Espinal R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.76 | 22.4% | 7.1% | 3.0% | .313 | 3.72 | 22.3% | 12.4% | 224 | -0.04 | 2.53 | 507 | 68 |
| Alex Cobb R 2027 · 5.20 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.20 | 14.0% | 6.9% | 4.4% | .366 | 4.43 | 16.3% | 10.7% | 344 | -0.77 | 2.78 | 844 | 67 |
| Rubby De La Rosa R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.02 | 24.3% | 8.6% | 3.5% | .248 | 4.01 | 27.6% | 18.3% | 42 | -0.01 | 3.97 | 281 | 66 |
| Darien Smith R 2025 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.67 | 19.0% | 12.9% | 2.8% | .212 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 102 | 65 |
| Connor Grey R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.88 | 22.1% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .286 | 4.32 | 16.2% | 7.0% | 104 | +0.44 | 2.81 | 461 | 65 |
| Cody Anderson R 2027 · 4.36 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.36 | 18.9% | 7.5% | 3.5% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 279 | 65 |
| Brian Edgington R 2025 · 5.05 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.05 | 19.3% | 12.3% | 3.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 171 | 65 |
| Mason Adams R 2025 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.23 | 21.6% | 9.3% | 3.2% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 254 | 65 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2025 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.24 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .393 | 4.44 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.20 | 4.24 | 166 | 64 |
| Shawn Dubin R 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.35 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 3.8% | .292 | 3.91 | 21.8% | 11.4% | 79 | -1.44 | 3.04 | 341 | 63 |
| Kyle Wright R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.41 | 21.9% | 11.0% | 3.2% | .354 | 5.32 | 20.2% | 4.7% | 13 | +0.91 | 3.32 | 669 | 63 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.15 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 247 | 63 |
| Tyler Cloyd R 2028 · 3.89 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.89 | 17.6% | 12.4% | 1.3% | .211 | 4.90 | 16.9% | 9.7% | 230 | +1.01 | 3.89 | 250 | 63 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 143 | 20.8% | 9.9% | 1.32 | 4.82 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Félix Hernández ('19) | 5 | 134 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.39 | 4.48 |
| Marco Estrada ('19) | 5 | 142 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.44 | 4.33 |
| Jason Vargas ('19) | 4 | 116 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 1.38 | 4.57 |