Dom Hamel — OGILVIE

Dom Hamel P Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 206 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.4 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION112 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 108

ERA4.82

FIP4.82

K%19.9%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%11.2%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 125 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD5555

K†4545

SI (8%)

SL (62%)

FB (23%)

CT (8%)

CH-0.5 (8%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	ROK MLE	FCL Mets	2	2	3	9	7	0	0	100%	1.5	77.8%	0.0%	77.8%	0.0%	0.00	-3.47	—
2021	22	ROK RAW	FCL Mets	2	2	3	9	7	0	0	100%	1.5	77.8%	0.0%	77.8%	0.0%	0.00	-1.57	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	119	490	145	54	5	96%	4.8	22.4%	12.9%	9.5%	1.4%	3.25	3.61	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	24	119	490	145	54	5	96%	4.8	29.6%	11.0%	18.6%	1.0%	3.25	2.57	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	26	25	124	527	160	49	12	96%	4.8	24.6%	10.2%	14.4%	3.0%	3.85	3.94	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	26	25	124	527	160	49	12	96%	4.8	24.6%	10.2%	14.4%	3.0%	3.85	3.94	—
2023	24	AA RAW	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	26	25	124	527	160	49	12	96%	4.8	30.4%	9.3%	21.1%	2.3%	3.85	2.96	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	27	27	125	582	124	77	23	100%	4.6	17.7%	11.9%	5.8%	4.1%	6.79	5.37	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	27	27	125	582	124	77	23	100%	4.6	17.7%	11.9%	5.8%	4.1%	6.79	5.37	—
2024	25	AAA RAW	Syracuse Mets	27	27	125	582	124	77	23	100%	4.6	21.3%	13.2%	8.1%	4.0%	6.79	5.36	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	11	69	304	75	22	12	34%	2.1	20.9%	6.6%	14.2%	3.8%	5.24	4.26	+0.2
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	11	69	304	75	22	12	34%	2.1	20.9%	6.6%	14.2%	3.8%	5.24	4.26	+0.2
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	11	69	304	75	22	12	34%	2.1	24.7%	7.2%	17.4%	3.9%	5.24	4.15	+0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			1	0	1	6	0	0	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	+0.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	26	24	112	531	98	60	20	92%	4.3	15.2%	10.5%	4.7%	4.2%	7.07	5.46	—
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	26	24	112	531	98	60	20	92%	4.3	15.2%	10.5%	4.7%	4.2%	7.07	5.46	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AA RAW	NYY	5	5	21	100	24	10	3	100%	4.1	24.0%	10.0%	14.0%	3.0%	7.84	3.99	—
2026	27	AAA RAW	NYY	21	19	91	431	74	50	17	90%	4.3	17.2%	11.6%	5.6%	3.9%	6.90	5.28	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	NYY	2	2	13	55	11	5	2	100%	6.6	19.9%	8.7%	11.2%	3.5%	4.82	4.82	+0.0
ROS	27	MLB CTX	NYY	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	19.9%	8.7%	11.2%	3.7%	4.95	4.95	+0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	NYY	—	—	125	586	109	65	22	—	—	18.6%	11.1%	7.5%	3.7%	6.84	5.39	-0.7
FULL	27	MLB A+C	NYY	—	—	1	6	1	0	0	—	—	19.9%	8.7%	11.2%	3.7%	4.95	4.57	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	NYY	24	24	145	611	122	53	22	100%	6.0	20.0%	8.7%	11.2%	3.5%	4.81	4.84	+0.1
2028	29	MLB MLE	NYY	23	23	138	584	116	52	21	100%	6.0	19.9%	8.9%	11.0%	3.6%	4.87	4.93	-0.0
2029	30	MLB MLE	NYY	22	22	130	548	108	50	21	100%	5.9	19.6%	9.1%	10.5%	3.8%	4.98	5.07	-0.3
2027	28	MLB CTX	NYY	10	10	62	262	52	23	10	100%	6.2	20.0%	8.7%	11.2%	3.8%	4.94	4.97	+0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	NYY	14	14	82	346	69	31	13	100%	5.9	19.9%	8.9%	11.0%	3.9%	5.01	5.07	-0.0
2029	30	MLB CTX	NYY	15	15	91	384	75	35	16	100%	6.1	19.6%	9.1%	10.5%	4.1%	5.12	5.21	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		40	39	237	1002	197	89	39	98%	5.9	19.7%	8.9%	10.8%	3.9%	5.01	4.71	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	33	200	846	166	75	33	98%	5.9	19.7%	8.9%	10.8%	3.9%	5.01	4.71	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		138	113	551	2443	493	262	80	82%	4.0	20.2%	10.7%	9.5%	3.3%	5.19	4.56	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	41	200	886	179	95	29	82%	4.0	20.2%	10.7%	9.5%	3.3%	5.19	4.56	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dom Hamel (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.82	19.9%	8.7%	3.5%	—	4.94	19.8%	10.9%	413	+0.12	—	—	—
Justin Topa R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	15.1%	7.9%	2.4%	.374	2.69	19.2%	12.6%	40	-1.46	2.67	280	73
Alex Cobb R 2016 · 5.26 FIP	28	SP	5.26	14.0%	6.9%	4.5%	.366	4.37	16.3%	10.7%	344	-0.89	2.74	844	70
Chase Whitley R 2016 · 4.10 FIP	27	SP-	4.10	19.5%	7.0%	3.2%	.217	3.22	18.0%	11.8%	81	-0.88	3.09	159	70
Burch Smith R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	27	SP	3.93	19.5%	12.6%	1.6%	.234	4.43	22.2%	10.5%	192	+0.50	3.50	382	69
Raynel Espinal R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	27	SP-	3.90	22.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.313	4.01	22.3%	12.4%	224	+0.11	2.48	507	68
Cody Anderson R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	28	SP	4.33	18.9%	7.5%	3.4%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	279	66
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.15	17.6%	6.7%	202	+1.50	3.65	245	65
Connor Grey R 2021 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	22.1%	8.1%	2.8%	.286	4.37	16.2%	7.0%	104	+0.55	2.70	461	65
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	65
Shawn Dubin R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	27	SP-	4.93	19.3%	12.9%	3.3%	.292	3.97	21.8%	11.4%	79	-0.96	3.02	341	65
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	64
Aldo Montes R 2017 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.4%	8.5%	3.3%	.322	4.69	18.2%	7.6%	75	-0.27	4.69	210	63
Zak Kent R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	25	SP	3.88	20.2%	6.4%	3.0%	.239	3.93	20.8%	10.3%	145	+0.05	3.19	378	63
Kyle Lloyd R 2018 · 4.23 FIP	27	SP-	4.23	18.2%	9.8%	2.6%	.336	4.75	17.2%	9.3%	110	+0.52	3.50	572	62
Max Beatty R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	26	SP-	3.88	13.2%	6.4%	2.0%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	3.88	117	62
Brock Hartson R 2019 · 4.80 FIP	25	SP-	4.80	16.1%	9.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	299	62
Matt Cain R 2015 · 4.88 FIP	30	SP-	4.88	17.1%	6.8%	4.3%	.296	4.87	15.2%	7.6%	214	-0.01	4.82	294	61
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	61
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	61
Wirkin Estevez R 2018 · 4.68 FIP	26	SP	4.68	14.8%	7.3%	3.5%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	238	61

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	139	19.8%	8.9%	1.40	4.87
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56