Dom Hamel
P
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders
+0.4
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'2" / 206 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.4 · 2027
ERA4.91
FIP4.91
xFIP7.68
SIERA5.51
K%21.5%
BB%10.4%
K-BB%11.1%
IP90
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2027
K†5060
SI (8%)
SL (62%)
FB (23%)
CT (8%)
CH-0.5 (8%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | FCL Mets | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | 25 | 24 | 119 | 490 | 145 | 54 | 5 | 22.4% | 12.9% | 1.4% | 3.25 | 3.60 | +2.3 |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | 26 | 25 | 124 | 527 | 160 | 49 | 12 | 24.6% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 3.85 | 3.94 | +1.9 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 27 | 27 | 125 | 582 | 124 | 77 | 23 | 18.7% | 13.9% | 4.2% | 6.79 | 5.56 | -0.4 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | New York Mets | 32 | 11 | 69 | 304 | 75 | 22 | 12 | 22.1% | 7.8% | 3.9% | 5.24 | 4.34 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 3 | 3 | 12 | 60 | 11 | 10 | 2 | 16.1% | 17.5% | 3.7% | 8.25 | 5.97 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | NYY | 16 | 16 | 90 | 382 | 82 | 40 | 13 | 21.5% | 10.4% | 3.5% | 4.91 | 4.91 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 102 | 442 | 93 | 50 | 15 | 21.0% | 11.2% | 3.5% | 5.30 | 5.03 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 17 | 17 | 91 | 384 | 82 | 39 | 13 | 21.5% | 10.2% | 3.5% | 4.86 | 4.87 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | NYY | 16 | 16 | 89 | 376 | 80 | 38 | 13 | 21.4% | 10.0% | 3.5% | 4.85 | 4.87 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | NYY | 16 | 16 | 86 | 364 | 77 | 37 | 13 | 21.2% | 10.0% | 3.5% | 4.87 | 4.90 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | NYY | 15 | 15 | 83 | 352 | 74 | 35 | 13 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 3.6% | 4.92 | 4.96 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | NYY | 15 | 15 | 80 | 338 | 77 | 32 | 12 | 22.7% | 9.4% | 3.7% | 4.83 | 4.78 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | NYY | 14 | 14 | 76 | 323 | 79 | 28 | 12 | 24.4% | 8.8% | 3.8% | 4.69 | 4.60 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | NYY | 13 | 13 | 73 | 307 | 74 | 28 | 12 | 24.1% | 9.0% | 3.9% | 4.70 | 4.71 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | NYY | 12 | 12 | 68 | 289 | 68 | 27 | 11 | 23.7% | 9.2% | 4.0% | 4.78 | 4.84 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | NYY | 12 | 12 | 64 | 270 | 63 | 26 | 11 | 23.2% | 9.5% | 4.1% | 4.89 | 4.97 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 115 | 92 | 451 | 1972 | 432 | 232 | 61 | 21.9% | 11.8% | 3.1% | 4.81 | 4.42 | +4.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 41 | 200 | 874 | 191 | 103 | 27 | 21.9% | 11.8% | 3.1% | 4.81 | 4.42 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dom Hamel (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.91 | 21.5% | 10.4% | 3.5% | — | 4.88 | 21.4% | 11.3% | 266 | -0.03 | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Pintaro R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.21 | 24.4% | 13.2% | 2.7% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 152 | 67 |
| Justin De Fratus R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.80 | 18.8% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .325 | 4.62 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 279 | +0.82 | 3.80 | 500 | 67 |
| Luis Cessa R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.54 | 21.9% | 8.7% | 4.0% | .272 | 4.05 | 18.9% | 11.2% | 167 | -0.49 | 3.15 | 891 | 65 |
| Bud Norris R 2029 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.64 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 3.8% | .327 | 3.81 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -0.83 | 3.39 | 316 | 65 |
| Austin Bergner R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.00 | 22.3% | 13.6% | 3.8% | .325 | 4.04 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 91 | -0.96 | 4.04 | 448 | 64 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.94 | 22.4% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .324 | 3.78 | 22.0% | 12.8% | 135 | -0.16 | 3.62 | 224 | 64 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2025 · 4.43 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.43 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.6% | .393 | 4.26 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | -0.17 | 4.26 | 166 | 64 |
| Jordan Lyles R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.69 | 22.6% | 6.7% | 3.0% | .284 | 4.86 | 20.2% | 12.1% | 379 | +1.17 | 3.49 | 1,080 | 63 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2025 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.23 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.6% | .309 | 3.32 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.91 | 3.32 | 252 | 63 |
| Josh Roeder R 2025 · 4.72 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.72 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 175 | 62 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 62 |
| Tyler Duffey R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 21.1% | 6.5% | 3.2% | .265 | 2.81 | 30.4% | 22.3% | 158 | -1.08 | 2.34 | 803 | 62 |
| Nick Morreale R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.97 | 19.0% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .271 | 3.72 | 11.7% | -1.1% | 14 | -0.25 | 2.97 | 280 | 62 |
| Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 62 |
| Zack Wheeler R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.89 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 4.2% | .327 | 3.06 | 23.0% | 16.8% | 449 | -1.83 | 2.32 | 1,443 | 61 |
| Matt Cain R 2029 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.87 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 5.04 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | +0.17 | 4.87 | 294 | 61 |
| Michael Wacha R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.18 | 20.0% | 10.1% | 2.7% | .247 | 4.98 | 21.0% | 13.9% | 285 | +0.80 | 2.76 | 1,477 | 61 |
| Noah Davis R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.05 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .368 | 4.33 | 21.5% | 10.4% | 79 | +0.28 | 2.95 | 492 | 61 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.72 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.12 | 3.22 | 221 | 60 |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 5.94 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.94 | 14.5% | 10.3% | 5.0% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 239 | 60 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2029 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2030 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +0.2 | $0.9M | +$0.0M |
| 2031 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.6M |
| 2032 | Arb-2 | $2M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2033 | Arb-3 | $1M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| Totals | $6M | $8M | +$2M | ||