Caleb Boushley

P Texas Rangers

Age 33 RHP 6'3" / 190 lbs MLB

Overview

MLBRPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	29	MIX2 levels	30	26	138	5.09	4.35	19.5%	8.8%	1.7	K 16.3% · BB 7.9% · FIP 4.79
2024	30	MIX2 levels	28	26	138	5.20	4.24	18.3%	5.0%	1.9	K 16.1% · BB 4.4% · FIP 4.51
2025	31	MIX2 levels	36	6	77	4.32	3.61	19.6%	7.9%	0.9	K 18.6% · BB 7.5% · FIP 3.51
2026	32	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	33	MLBTEX	20	20	130	4.67	4.68	16.2%	6.3%	1.1
2028PROJ73% MLB	34	MLBTEX	10	10	62	4.81	4.94	15.8%	7.0%	0.3
2029PROJ68% MLB	35	MLBTEX	5	5	31	5.04	5.23	15.3%	7.6%	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 4.4 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

K%43

FB Velo14

xwOBA vs10

CompsKenshin Kawakami (age 34) · Austin Bibens-Dirkx (age 33) · Pete Walker (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA4.67

FIP4.68

K%16.2%

BB%6.3%

K-BB%9.8%

Proj IP168

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 168 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1491.9

Whiff%

p1820.8%

p4321.2%

xwOBA vs

p100.370

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	9	42	183	37	14	2	82%	3.8	14.2%	10.0%	4.2%	1.7%	5.83	4.11	—
2017	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	9	42	183	37	14	2	82%	3.8	20.2%	7.7%	12.6%	1.1%	5.83	2.96	—
2018	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	38	1	73	296	72	9	6	3%	1.9	17.9%	3.8%	14.1%	1.8%	2.71	3.05	—
2018	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	38	1	73	296	72	9	6	3%	1.9	24.3%	3.0%	21.3%	2.0%	2.71	2.57	—
2019	25	A+ MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	26	10	102	432	104	16	7	38%	3.9	18.5%	4.3%	14.3%	2.3%	3.61	3.31	—
2019	25	A+ RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	26	10	102	432	104	16	7	38%	3.9	24.1%	3.7%	20.4%	1.6%	3.61	2.43	—
2021	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	116	518	109	30	26	96%	4.8	18.0%	6.2%	11.9%	5.2%	5.21	5.21	—
2021	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	23	116	518	109	30	26	96%	4.8	21.0%	5.8%	15.3%	5.0%	5.21	4.92	—
2022	28	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	25	25	127	520	91	43	12	100%	5.1	15.4%	8.7%	6.7%	2.7%	3.25	4.37	—
2022	28	AAA RAW	Nashville Sounds	25	25	127	520	91	43	12	100%	5.1	17.5%	8.3%	9.2%	2.3%	3.25	3.91	—
2023	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	26	138	591	115	52	19	87%	4.6	16.3%	7.9%	8.4%	3.8%	5.09	4.79	+1.0
2023	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	26	138	591	115	52	19	87%	4.6	19.5%	8.8%	10.7%	3.2%	5.09	4.35	+1.7
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	26	138	596	109	30	22	93%	4.9	16.1%	4.4%	11.8%	4.0%	5.20	4.51	+1.4
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	26	138	596	109	30	22	93%	4.9	16.1%	4.4%	11.8%	4.0%	5.20	4.51	+1.4
2024	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	26	138	596	109	30	22	93%	4.9	18.3%	5.0%	13.3%	3.7%	5.20	4.24	+1.9
2025	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	6	77	331	65	26	7	17%	2.1	18.6%	7.5%	11.2%	1.9%	4.32	3.51	+1.0
2025	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	6	77	331	65	26	7	17%	2.1	18.6%	7.5%	11.2%	1.9%	4.32	3.51	+1.0
2025	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	6	77	331	65	26	7	17%	2.1	19.6%	7.9%	11.8%	2.1%	4.32	3.61	+0.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			28	1	50	223	47	16	6	4%	1.8	21.1%	7.2%	13.9%	2.7%	5.80	3.74	+0.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	33	MLB	TEX	20	20	130	549	89	35	18	100%	6.5	16.2%	6.3%	9.8%	3.2%	4.67	4.68	+1.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	TEX	13	13	85	359	57	25	13	100%	6.5	15.8%	7.0%	8.8%	3.5%	4.81	4.94	+0.4
2029	35	MLB MLE	TEX	7	7	45	190	29	14	7	100%	6.4	15.3%	7.6%	7.7%	3.8%	5.04	5.23	+0.1
2028	34	MLB CTX	TEX	10	10	62	262	41	18	9	100%	6.2	15.8%	7.0%	8.8%	3.5%	4.81	4.94	+0.3
2029	35	MLB CTX	TEX	5	5	31	131	20	10	5	100%	6.2	15.3%	7.6%	7.7%	3.8%	5.04	5.23	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		42	15	142	614	108	44	20	36%	3.4	17.6%	7.2%	10.4%	3.3%	5.20	4.31	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		60	22	200	863	152	62	28	36%	3.4	17.6%	7.2%	10.4%	3.3%	5.20	4.31	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		218	126	813	3467	586	222	112	58%	3.7	16.9%	6.4%	10.5%	3.2%	4.40	4.25	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	31	200	853	144	55	27	58%	3.7	16.9%	6.4%	10.5%	3.2%	4.40	4.25	+1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAADurham Bulls · 34 IPFIP 3.62 → 3.54 (−0.08)K% 17.4% → 15.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.39%	—	×0.860	14.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.42%	—	×0.900	8.48%
HR / BF /BF	1.45%	÷1.380	×1.100	1.15%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 176).

Result: FIP 3.62 → 3.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASt. Paul Saints · 134 IPFIP 4.23 → 4.51 (+0.28)K% 18.8% → 16.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.75%	—	×0.860	16.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.86%	—	×0.900	4.38%
HR / BF /BF	3.82%	÷1.039	×1.100	4.04%

Result: FIP 4.23 → 4.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAANashville Sounds · 136 IPFIP 4.31 → 4.79 (+0.48)K% 18.9% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.93%	—	×0.860	16.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.78%	—	×0.900	7.90%
HR / BF /BF	3.10%	÷0.905	×1.100	3.77%

Result: FIP 4.31 → 4.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAANashville Sounds · 127 IPFIP 3.94 → 4.37 (+0.44)K% 17.5% → 15.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.50%	—	×0.880	15.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.27%	—	×1.050	8.68%
HR / BF /BF	2.31%	÷0.946	×1.100	2.68%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 89).

Result: FIP 3.94 → 4.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 80 IPFIP 5.32 → 5.41 (+0.09)K% 20.2% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.22%	—	×0.880	17.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.82%	—	×1.050	6.11%
HR / BF /BF	5.82%	÷1.154	×1.100	5.54%

Result: FIP 5.32 → 5.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AASan Antonio Missions · 36 IPFIP 3.64 → 4.75 (+1.11)K% 22.9% → 18.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.93%	—	×0.810	18.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.73%	—	×1.100	6.31%
HR / BF /BF	3.18%	÷0.868	×1.200	4.40%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 74).

Result: FIP 3.64 → 4.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Lake Elsinore Storm · 102 IPFIP 2.43 → 3.31 (+0.88)K% 24.1% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.07%	—	×0.770	18.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.70%	—	×1.150	4.26%
HR / BF /BF	1.62%	÷0.900	×1.250	2.25%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 80).

Result: FIP 2.43 → 3.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AFort Wayne TinCaps · 60 IPFIP 2.35 → 3.05 (+0.70)K% 24.2% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.19%	—	×0.740	17.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.23%	—	×1.180	3.81%
HR / BF /BF	1.61%	÷1.176	×1.300	1.78%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 135).

Result: FIP 2.35 → 3.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Caleb Boushley (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.2%	—	5.04	15.7%	8.5%	130	+0.36	—	—	—
Kenshin Kawakami R 2009 · 3.97 FIP	34	SP-	3.97	15.7%	7.6%	2.2%	.277	4.06	15.1%	9.5%	87	+0.09	3.97	244	73
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2018 · 4.89 FIP	33	SP-	4.89	17.9%	7.6%	4.3%	.322	4.82	15.9%	9.5%	147	-0.07	3.97	567	68
Pete Walker R 2002 · 4.59 FIP	33	SP-	4.59	13.4%	7.7%	3.0%	.279	5.16	12.0%	2.8%	139	+0.57	4.45	327	67
Zach Neal R 2022 · 5.53 FIP	33	SP-	5.53	16.1%	5.7%	5.6%	.321	5.98	15.6%	9.6%	101	+0.45	4.24	732	62
Jarrett Grube R 2015 · 3.75 FIP	33	SP	3.75	18.7%	4.2%	3.1%	.285	4.57	17.3%	9.6%	253	+0.82	3.75	393	59
Cory Riordan R 2016 · 4.24 FIP	30	SP	4.24	14.3%	5.0%	3.1%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	4.24	154	59
Shawn Haviland R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	31	SP-	5.00	16.3%	8.1%	4.1%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	283	58
Toru Murata R 2016 · 3.63 FIP	31	SW	3.63	12.9%	5.7%	1.6%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	267	58
Osvaldo Fernandez R 2001 · 4.53 FIP	32	SP-	4.53	9.6%	8.2%	2.2%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.25	387	56
Casey Lawrence R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	33	SP-	4.08	20.0%	5.2%	3.7%	.284	4.99	15.9%	10.6%	440	+0.91	3.57	1,374	56
Leo Medrano R 2016 · 4.34 FIP	33	SP	4.34	11.0%	7.3%	2.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	222	55
César Valdez R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	32	SP-	3.91	16.4%	5.3%	2.8%	.296	2.65	18.7%	15.4%	162	-1.26	1.91	902	55
David Fletcher R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	30	SP-	5.67	7.5%	10.3%	3.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.67	100	54
Andres Ivan Meza R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	11.7%	7.7%	2.3%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	275	53
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	53
Manuel Flores R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	33	SP	4.32	17.1%	7.4%	3.1%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	515	53
Jonathan Castellanos R 2015 · 3.63 FIP	33	SP	3.63	12.2%	6.5%	1.3%	.313	4.15	11.8%	3.5%	216	+0.52	3.40	394	53
Matt Buschmann R 2016 · 4.84 FIP	32	SP	4.84	12.8%	8.4%	3.2%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	277	52
Angel Castro R 2016 · 5.42 FIP	33	SW	5.42	12.3%	9.1%	4.0%	.304	3.51	14.5%	7.1%	139	-1.91	3.51	292	51
Deck McGuire R 2022 · 5.12 FIP	33	SP-	5.12	15.7%	13.1%	3.1%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	622	51

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	87	16.7%	6.9%	1.27	4.91
Randy O'Neal ('84-'90, 1 WAR*)	2.2	73	17.4%*	7.8%*	1.21*	4.65*
Boof Bonser ('10)	2.1	104	18.2%	7.2%	1.36	5.18
Paul Reuschel ('75-'79, 1 WAR*)	2.0	79	16.8%*	7.6%*	1.29*	4.76*
Joe Moeller ('62-'71, -1 WAR*)	2.9	97	16.0%*	7.3%*	1.16*	4.98*
Ramon Garcia ('97)	1.6	104	15.1%	7.9%	1.44	4.84
Brad Lincoln ('14)	1.1	56	17.4%	7.9%	1.30	4.74