Daniel Ponce de Leon
P
Charlotte Knights
+0.0
WAR
Age 34
RHP
6'3" / 200 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.59
FIP4.59
xFIP6.86
SIERA5.89
K%22.4%
BB%10.2%
K-BB%12.2%
IP18
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
K†5050
FB Velo
p2993.0
Whiff%
p2421.6%
K%
p1015.1%
xwOBA vs
p110.358
CH+1.2
CT-2.1
FB-6.8
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | A+ | Palm Beach Cardinals | 20 | 19 | 119 | 485 | 87 | 30 | 5 | 13.4% | 7.2% | 1.3% | 2.12 | 3.62 | +2.3 |
| 2016 | 24 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 27 | 27 | 151 | 642 | 122 | 55 | 10 | 15.4% | 9.4% | 1.7% | 3.52 | 3.91 | +2.4 |
| 2017 | 25 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 6 | 6 | 29 | 119 | 25 | 13 | 2 | 18.5% | 11.5% | 1.9% | 2.17 | 4.03 | +0.3 |
| 2018 | 26 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 30 | 22 | 129 | 541 | 141 | 63 | 6 | 23.6% | 12.1% | 1.3% | 2.37 | 3.35 | +2.9 |
| 2019 | 27 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 29 | 24 | 133 | 561 | 138 | 65 | 13 | 22.8% | 12.0% | 2.6% | 3.18 | 4.13 | +1.8 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 9 | 8 | 33 | 143 | 45 | 20 | 8 | 31.5% | 14.0% | 5.7% | 4.96 | 5.32 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 29 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 30 | 7 | 44 | 202 | 34 | 30 | 6 | 15.2% | 13.3% | 3.4% | 5.32 | 5.39 | -0.2 |
| 2022 | 30 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 26 | 26 | 116 | 518 | 131 | 59 | 19 | 22.3% | 12.0% | 3.9% | 6.52 | 4.89 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 31 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 8 | 7 | 24 | 131 | 19 | 24 | 8 | 12.8% | 19.2% | 6.1% | 9.99 | 7.79 | -0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | MLB | STL | 18 | — | 18 | 77 | 17 | 8 | 2 | 21.9% | 10.2% | 3.1% | 4.60 | 4.64 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | STL | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 21.2% | 10.4% | 3.2% | 4.72 | 4.79 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 185 | 146 | 778 | 3342 | 649 | 376 | 84 | 19.4% | 11.2% | 2.5% | 3.82 | 4.27 | +9.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 38 | 200 | 859 | 167 | 97 | 22 | 19.4% | 11.2% | 2.5% | 3.82 | 4.27 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Daniel Ponce de Leon (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.64 | 21.9% | 10.2% | 3.1% | — | 4.79 | 21.2% | 10.7% | 20 | +0.15 | — | — | — |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.75 | 18.6% | 9.4% | 3.7% | .232 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.31 | 187 | 80 |
| Mark Lowe R 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.01 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.7% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 153 | 79 |
| Manny Acosta R 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 78 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.96 | 23.8% | 8.6% | 3.2% | .309 | 4.52 | 16.8% | 9.0% | 63 | +0.56 | 2.57 | 251 | 78 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2024 · 4.60 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.0% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 221 | 77 |
| Mark Serrano R 2025 · 5.25 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.25 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.2% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 120 | 77 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.94 | 18.1% | 12.9% | 1.3% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.48 | 147 | 77 |
| Josh Lueke R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.14 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 3.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 107 | 76 |
| Rafael Dolis R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.60 | 19.9% | 11.9% | 1.2% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.80 | 162 | 76 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.81 | 22.6% | 9.3% | 2.6% | .230 | 4.45 | 19.4% | 12.7% | 78 | +0.64 | 3.81 | 208 | 76 |
| Pedro Strop R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.10 | 27.5% | 10.7% | 3.6% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.58 | 277 | 75 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2025 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 122 | 75 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.48 | 18.6% | 10.0% | 3.1% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 260 | 74 |
| George Kontos R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.02 | 15.4% | 9.0% | 3.8% | .356 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 290 | 74 |
| Francisco Rodríguez R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.72 | 22.1% | 8.5% | 2.6% | .248 | 6.54 | 19.5% | 11.0% | 25 | +2.82 | 2.87 | 141 | 74 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.51 | 17.4% | 9.9% | 3.0% | .304 | 3.66 | 19.8% | 11.6% | 113 | -0.85 | 2.89 | 326 | 74 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2025 · 5.41 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.41 | 18.0% | 9.6% | 4.8% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.93 | 176 | 74 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.98 | 18.1% | 11.3% | 1.8% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 104 | 73 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.39 | 18.3% | 6.6% | 3.6% | .282 | 4.11 | 18.6% | 12.0% | 67 | -0.28 | 4.11 | 186 | 73 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.09 | 15.0% | 6.4% | 2.6% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 132 | 73 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.