Daniel Ponce de Leon
P
Charlotte Knights
Age 34
RHP
6'3" / 200 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION12 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.58
FIP4.63
xFIP6.86
SIERA5.89
K%21.9%
BB%10.2%
K-BB%11.7%
IP13
K†5050
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
FB Velo
p2993.0
Whiff%
p2421.6%
K%
p1015.1%
xwOBA vs
p110.358
CH+1.2
CT-2.1
FB-6.8
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | A+ | Palm Beach Cardinals | 20 | 19 | 119 | 485 | 87 | 30 | 5 | 13.4% | 7.2% | 1.4% | 2.12 | 3.63 | +2.5 |
| 2016 | 24 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 27 | 27 | 151 | 642 | 122 | 55 | 10 | 15.4% | 9.4% | 1.4% | 3.52 | 3.78 | +2.9 |
| 2017 | 25 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 6 | 6 | 29 | 119 | 25 | 13 | 2 | 18.5% | 11.5% | 1.9% | 2.17 | 4.05 | +0.2 |
| 2018 | 26 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 30 | 22 | 129 | 541 | 141 | 63 | 6 | 23.6% | 12.1% | 1.4% | 2.37 | 3.39 | +3.0 |
| 2019 | 27 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 29 | 24 | 133 | 561 | 138 | 65 | 13 | 22.8% | 12.0% | 2.5% | 3.18 | 4.06 | +2.1 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 9 | 8 | 33 | 143 | 45 | 20 | 8 | 31.5% | 14.0% | 5.6% | 4.96 | 5.30 | -0.3 |
| 2021 | 29 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 30 | 7 | 44 | 202 | 34 | 30 | 6 | 15.2% | 13.3% | 3.2% | 5.32 | 5.25 | -0.4 |
| 2022 | 30 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 26 | 26 | 116 | 518 | 131 | 59 | 19 | 22.3% | 12.0% | 3.8% | 6.52 | 4.84 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 31 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 8 | 7 | 24 | 131 | 19 | 24 | 8 | 12.8% | 19.2% | 5.1% | 9.99 | 7.28 | -0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | MLB | CWS | 13 | — | 13 | 54 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 21.9% | 10.2% | 3.1% | 4.58 | 4.63 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | CWS | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 20.9% | 10.7% | 3.4% | 4.81 | 4.96 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 185 | 146 | 778 | 3342 | 649 | 376 | 80 | 19.4% | 11.2% | 2.4% | 3.82 | 4.21 | +10.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 38 | 200 | 859 | 167 | 97 | 21 | 19.4% | 11.2% | 2.4% | 3.82 | 4.21 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Daniel Ponce de Leon (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.63 | 21.9% | 10.2% | 3.1% | — | 4.96 | 20.9% | 10.2% | 20 | +0.33 | — | — | — |
| Ubaldo Jiménez R 2025 · 5.02 FIP | 33 | SP | 5.02 | 21.5% | 9.0% | 4.7% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 469 | 77 |
| Marco Estrada R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.48 | 21.8% | 8.8% | 3.9% | .294 | 5.50 | 15.6% | 7.6% | 167 | +1.02 | 4.04 | 710 | 77 |
| Alfredo Simon R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.69 | 14.3% | 8.2% | 3.2% | .289 | 5.63 | 12.3% | 2.7% | 74 | +0.94 | 4.69 | 261 | 75 |
| Jason Hammel R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.20 | 18.0% | 5.7% | 3.5% | .312 | 4.34 | 15.8% | 9.8% | 127 | +0.14 | 3.43 | 645 | 74 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.28 | 17.9% | 9.8% | 2.6% | .254 | 7.23 | 15.1% | 4.8% | 89 | +2.95 | 3.69 | 521 | 74 |
| Ricky Nolasco R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.98 | 18.2% | 7.0% | 4.6% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 425 | 73 |
| Merrill Kelly R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.58 | 25.9% | 9.6% | 2.6% | .276 | 4.15 | 20.2% | 13.4% | 322 | +0.57 | 3.54 | 1,073 | 73 |
| Justin Verlander R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.58 | 25.8% | 8.0% | 3.0% | .267 | 2.70 | 35.1% | 30.4% | 437 | -0.88 | 2.24 | 1,584 | 71 |
| Mike Fiers R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.87 | 16.7% | 7.0% | 4.2% | .250 | 4.69 | 14.4% | 8.2% | 59 | -0.18 | 3.72 | 918 | 71 |
| James Shields R 2026 · 5.51 FIP | 34 | SP | 5.51 | 16.4% | 9.6% | 4.7% | .296 | 4.91 | 18.6% | 9.5% | 336 | -0.60 | 4.36 | 720 | 71 |
| Jake Peavy R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.09 | 17.3% | 5.7% | 3.2% | .278 | 4.36 | 19.6% | 12.9% | 119 | +0.27 | 4.09 | 262 | 70 |
| Aaron Harang R 2029 · 4.54 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.54 | 14.4% | 6.4% | 3.4% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.54 | 172 | 69 |
| Miles Mikolas R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.00 | 15.9% | 4.5% | 3.0% | .304 | 4.66 | 15.7% | 11.0% | 389 | +0.66 | 3.06 | 1,241 | 68 |
| Tomoyuki Sugano R 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.91 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 4.5% | .279 | 5.13 | 13.6% | 6.6% | 68 | +0.22 | 4.91 | 225 | 68 |
| Kyle Lohse R 2028 · 4.98 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.98 | 16.2% | 6.0% | 4.5% | .309 | 5.53 | 14.8% | 8.8% | 59 | +0.55 | 4.98 | 211 | 68 |
| Kyle Davies R 2023 · 3.72 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.72 | 13.8% | 6.1% | 1.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.72 | 153 | 67 |
| Matt Buschmann R 2024 · 4.71 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.71 | 12.8% | 8.4% | 3.0% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 277 | 67 |
| Jeff Samardzija R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.53 | 18.9% | 6.1% | 4.1% | .235 | 8.52 | 7.8% | 2.6% | 17 | +3.99 | 3.63 | 885 | 67 |
| Ervin Santana R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.28 | 19.3% | 6.8% | 3.5% | .241 | 5.78 | 12.7% | 4.4% | 133 | +1.50 | 3.66 | 720 | 65 |
| Jeremy Guthrie R 2028 · 5.42 FIP | 36 | SP | 5.42 | 12.7% | 6.5% | 4.7% | .309 | 5.00 | 11.6% | 3.0% | 87 | -0.42 | 5.00 | 235 | 65 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.