Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 3 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 30.0% | 20.0% | 10.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 3.10 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 3 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 30.0% | 20.0% | 10.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 3.10 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 17 | 79 | 352 | 78 | 35 | 6 | 81% | 3.8 | 16.8% | 11.5% | 5.3% | 1.7% | 4.42 | 4.06 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 17 | 79 | 352 | 78 | 35 | 6 | 81% | 3.8 | 22.2% | 9.9% | 12.2% | 1.7% | 4.42 | 3.44 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 19 | 6 | 46 | 226 | 33 | 23 | 5 | 32% | 2.4 | 11.2% | 11.7% | -0.5% | 3.0% | 7.88 | 5.28 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 19 | 6 | 46 | 226 | 33 | 23 | 5 | 32% | 2.4 | 14.6% | 10.2% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 7.88 | 4.59 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | MIN | 54 | 0 | 57 | 241 | 26 | 33 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 10.9% | 13.6% | -2.6% | 2.9% | 5.85 | 5.85 | -0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 33 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 13.6% | 12.7% | 0.9% | 2.9% | 5.58 | 5.51 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 37 | 30 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.2% | 12.4% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 5.40 | 5.34 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 54 | 0 | 57 | 240 | 37 | 30 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.6% | 12.3% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 5.34 | 5.33 | -0.5 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 53 | 0 | 55 | 233 | 37 | 29 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.7% | 12.4% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 5.36 | 5.39 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 14 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.6% | 12.7% | 0.9% | 2.9% | 5.58 | 5.51 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 24 | 20 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.2% | 12.4% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 5.40 | 5.34 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 29 | 23 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.6% | 12.3% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 5.34 | 5.33 | -0.4 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 30 | 24 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.7% | 12.4% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 5.36 | 5.39 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 146 | 0 | 154 | 649 | 99 | 81 | 19 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.2% | 12.4% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 5.40 | 5.00 | +0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 129 | 105 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.2% | 12.4% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 5.40 | 5.00 | +0.9 | ||
| Career | — | 43 | 23 | 129 | 598 | 91 | 71 | 13 | 53% | 3.0 | 15.2% | 11.9% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 5.51 | 4.49 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 67 | 36 | 200 | 927 | 140 | 110 | 20 | 53% | 3.0 | 15.2% | 11.9% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 5.51 | 4.49 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jeremy Lee (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.85 | 10.9% | 13.6% | 2.9% | — | 5.39 | 14.8% | 2.3% | 172 | -0.46 | — | — | — |
| Wirkin Estevez R 2026 · 5.36 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.36 | 10.7% | 13.4% | 2.7% | .316 | 4.42 | 12.3% | 3.5% | 179 | -0.94 | 4.24 | 238 | 93 |
| Sam Whiting R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.13 | 14.3% | 15.1% | 2.4% | .309 | 7.73 | 17.8% | 2.4% | 17 | +2.60 | 4.17 | 152 | 85 |
| Tyler Brashears R 2025 · 5.54 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.54 | 12.1% | 13.0% | 3.3% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 156 | 84 |
| LJ Brewster R 2025 · 4.90 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.90 | 9.4% | 11.0% | 2.2% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 143 | 82 |
| Paul Clemens R 2029 · 5.36 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.36 | 14.3% | 14.1% | 3.1% | .310 | 4.76 | 16.9% | 7.3% | 200 | -0.60 | 4.76 | 247 | 82 |
| Dawson Netz R 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.27 | 16.4% | 12.9% | 3.5% | .321 | 4.42 | 23.3% | 12.6% | 51 | -0.85 | 4.42 | 102 | 80 |
| Cooper Adams R 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.35 | 13.0% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .275 | 3.92 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 118 | -1.43 | 2.99 | 197 | 79 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2028 · 5.19 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.19 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 157 | 79 |
| Ted Stuka R 2026 · 5.78 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.78 | 12.4% | 23.4% | 1.4% | .262 | 6.34 | 15.9% | -13.1% | 41 | +0.56 | 5.51 | 105 | 79 |
| Dane Myers R 2025 · 5.39 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.39 | 12.2% | 11.5% | 3.4% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 125 | 78 |
| Zach Willeman R 2025 · 5.55 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.55 | 10.8% | 15.0% | 2.6% | .296 | 5.10 | 21.3% | 7.8% | 108 | -0.45 | 4.15 | 264 | 78 |
| Cullen Kafka R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.88 | 14.2% | 12.1% | 2.6% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 148 | 78 |
| Kyle Miller R 2025 · 4.76 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.76 | 12.1% | 12.0% | 2.1% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 164 | 77 |
| Oscar Verdugo R 2027 · 6.84 FIP | 25 | SP- | 6.84 | 10.5% | 13.9% | 5.2% | .241 | 6.16 | 10.8% | -1.8% | 74 | -0.68 | 5.39 | 144 | 76 |
| Boone Whiting R 2027 · 5.21 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.21 | 11.3% | 13.9% | 2.4% | .337 | 4.78 | 10.9% | 4.8% | 132 | -0.43 | 4.78 | 227 | 76 |
| Alfonso Sanchez R 2029 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 12.5% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .346 | 4.97 | 14.0% | 5.3% | 138 | +0.16 | 4.54 | 224 | 76 |
| Danny Flatt R 2024 · 5.31 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.31 | 12.9% | 12.3% | 3.2% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.31 | 112 | 75 |
| Parker Bridwell R 2026 · 5.29 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.29 | 12.4% | 12.4% | 3.0% | .278 | 4.96 | 15.5% | 7.8% | 269 | -0.33 | 3.64 | 422 | 75 |
| Braxton Hyde R 2026 · 5.67 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.67 | 14.0% | 12.3% | 4.0% | .345 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.90 | 198 | 75 |
| Holt Jones R 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.30 | 16.1% | 17.9% | 2.4% | .285 | 4.38 | 20.9% | 5.2% | 137 | -0.92 | 4.13 | 217 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 57 | 14.2% | 12.7% | 1.13 | 5.51 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Wily Peralta ('22) | 7 | 71 | 16.1% | 9.8% | 1.22 | 4.66 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |