Dane Myers
CF Cincinnati Reds| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 28 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 156 | .254/.359/.396 | 4 | 8 | 84 | — | .211/.289/.303 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLBMIA | 108 | .263/.340/.442 | 3 | 4 | 126 | 0.4 | |
| 2025 | 29 | MLBMIA | 333 | .235/.292/.326 | 6 | 18 | 82 | 0.2 | |
| 2026 | 30 | MLBCIN | 334 | .257/.346/.377 | 8 | 10 | 104 | 1.3 | |
| 2027PROJ | 31 | MLBCIN | 229 | .249/.331/.377 | 6 | 8 | 99 | 0.7 | |
| 2028PROJ82% MLB | 32 | MLBCIN | 173 | .244/.324/.363 | 4 | 4 | 94 | 0.1 |
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 50
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 25 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 104 | 97 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 27 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 278 | 314 | 443 | 757 | 165 | 353 | 26 | 4 | 328 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 15 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 333 | 467 | 667 | 1.133 | 333 | 300 | 7 | 20 | 485 | 167 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 60 | 45 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 20 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 311 | 466 | 378 | 843 | 67 | 519 | 33 | 15 | 384 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 46 | 43 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 256 | 304 | 326 | 630 | 70 | 393 | 33 | 2 | 288 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 442 | 407 | 109 | 18 | 2 | 25 | 23 | 118 | 7 | 20 | 4 | 268 | 318 | 506 | 824 | 238 | 315 | 27 | 5 | 356 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Miami Marlins | — | 70 | 67 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 269 | 290 | 358 | 648 | 90 | 354 | 27 | 3 | 286 | 86 | -1 | -0 | -1 | +2 | +2 | 0.2 |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 223 | 192 | 65 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 23 | 43 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 339 | 423 | 516 | 938 | 177 | 396 | 19 | 10 | 411 | 127 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 215 | 182 | 53 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 27 | 37 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 291 | 397 | 462 | 859 | 170 | 331 | 17 | 13 | 383 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | INTL | Gigantes del Cibao | — | 89 | 79 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 266 | 341 | 329 | 670 | 63 | 317 | 18 | 8 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Miami Marlins | — | 108 | 95 | 25 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 36 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 263 | 340 | 442 | 782 | 179 | 379 | 33 | 7 | 342 | 126 | +3 | +0 | +0 | -3 | +2 | 0.4 |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 121 | 105 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 34 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 248 | 347 | 381 | 728 | 133 | 338 | 28 | 12 | 332 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | INTL | Gigantes del Cibao | — | 35 | 29 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 276 | 400 | 448 | 848 | 172 | 412 | 31 | 17 | 380 | 144 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | Miami Marlins | — | 333 | 307 | 72 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 77 | 2 | 18 | 5 | 235 | 292 | 326 | 618 | 91 | 293 | 23 | 7 | 281 | 82 | -7 | +2 | -1 | +1 | +7 | 0.2 |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 15 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 333 | 167 | 500 | 250 | 27 | 20 | 260 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | — | 334 | 292 | 75 | 11 | 0 | 8 | 37 | 82 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 257 | 346 | 377 | 723 | 120 | 328 | 25 | 11 | 328 | 104 | +2 | +2 | +1 | +1 | +7 | 1.3 |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 845 | 761 | 190 | 30 | 1 | 18 | 70 | 214 | 8 | 33 | 7 | 250 | 319 | 363 | 682 | 113 | 321 | 25 | 8 | 308 | 94 | -6 | +4 | -0 | +2 | +18 | 1.8 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 25 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 104 | 98 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 32 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 255 | 284 | 388 | 672 | 133 | 332 | 31 | 3 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 15 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 308 | 400 | 615 | 1.015 | 308 | 264 | 7 | 13 | 415 | 167 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | A MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 60 | 48 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 28 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 229 | 362 | 271 | 633 | 42 | 451 | 47 | 10 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 46 | 43 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 209 | 261 | 256 | 517 | 47 | 356 | 39 | 2 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 442 | 414 | 93 | 14 | 2 | 20 | 16 | 145 | 7 | 20 | 4 | 225 | 265 | 413 | 678 | 188 | 282 | 33 | 4 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB MLE | Miami Marlins | — | 70 | 67 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 269 | 290 | 358 | 648 | 90 | 354 | 27 | 3 | 295 | 86 | -1 | -0 | -1 | +2 | +2 | 0.2 |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 223 | 199 | 62 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 50 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 312 | 377 | 452 | 830 | 141 | 372 | 22 | 7 | 356 | 127 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 215 | 192 | 48 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 46 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 250 | 327 | 380 | 707 | 130 | 296 | 21 | 8 | 308 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB MLE | Miami Marlins | — | 108 | 95 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 36 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 274 | 349 | 463 | 812 | 189 | 379 | 33 | 7 | 355 | 126 | +3 | +0 | +0 | -3 | +2 | 0.4 |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 121 | 109 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 41 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 211 | 289 | 303 | 592 | 92 | 314 | 34 | 8 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB MLE | Miami Marlins | — | 333 | 307 | 74 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 77 | 2 | 18 | 5 | 241 | 298 | 336 | 634 | 94 | 293 | 23 | 7 | 289 | 82 | -7 | +2 | -1 | +1 | +7 | 0.2 |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 15 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 154 | 267 | 154 | 421 | 217 | 33 | 13 | 194 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2026 | 30 | MLB MLE | Cincinnati Reds | — | 334 | 292 | 74 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 37 | 82 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 253 | 343 | 363 | 706 | 110 | 328 | 25 | 11 | 322 | 104 | +2 | +2 | +1 | +1 | +7 | 1.3 |
| 2021 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 179 | 159 | 40 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 61 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 252 | 320 | 371 | 691 | 119 | 378 | 34 | 6 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 179 | 154 | 45 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 48 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 292 | 377 | 442 | 819 | 149 | 390 | 27 | 9 | 360 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 488 | 457 | 102 | 16 | 2 | 20 | 17 | 162 | 9 | 21 | 5 | 223 | 265 | 398 | 663 | 175 | 295 | 33 | 3 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 488 | 450 | 120 | 21 | 2 | 25 | 24 | 133 | 9 | 21 | 5 | 267 | 317 | 489 | 806 | 222 | 322 | 27 | 5 | 350 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA MLE | 4 teams | — | 597 | 538 | 151 | 20 | 3 | 14 | 41 | 134 | 12 | 30 | 6 | 281 | 345 | 407 | 752 | 126 | 346 | 22 | 7 | 327 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA RAW | 4 teams | — | 597 | 520 | 157 | 19 | 3 | 17 | 59 | 115 | 12 | 30 | 6 | 302 | 386 | 448 | 834 | 146 | 355 | 19 | 10 | 371 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 264 | 237 | 57 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 89 | 5 | 12 | 2 | 241 | 313 | 380 | 693 | 139 | 354 | 34 | 8 | 308 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 264 | 229 | 59 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 28 | 81 | 5 | 12 | 2 | 258 | 351 | 415 | 766 | 157 | 364 | 31 | 11 | 343 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 348 | 320 | 76 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 82 | 2 | 18 | 5 | 237 | 297 | 328 | 625 | 91 | 300 | 24 | 7 | 285 | 79 | -9 | +2 | -1 | +1 | +8 | 0.1 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 348 | 319 | 74 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 81 | 2 | 18 | 5 | 232 | 294 | 320 | 614 | 88 | 292 | 23 | 7 | 280 | 79 | -9 | +2 | -1 | +1 | +8 | 0.1 |
| 2026 | 30 | MLB MLE | Cincinnati Reds | — | 334 | 292 | 74 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 37 | 82 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 253 | 343 | 363 | 706 | 110 | 327 | 25 | 11 | 322 | 104 | +2 | +2 | +1 | +1 | +7 | 1.3 |
| 2026 | 30 | MLB RAW | Cincinnati Reds | — | 334 | 292 | 75 | 11 | 0 | 8 | 37 | 82 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 257 | 346 | 377 | 723 | 120 | 328 | 25 | 11 | 328 | 104 | +2 | +2 | +1 | +1 | +7 | 1.3 |
| 2021 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 179 | 161 | 40 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 61 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 248 | 320 | 366 | 686 | 118 | 366 | 34 | 6 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 488 | 459 | 102 | 16 | 2 | 20 | 17 | 162 | 9 | 21 | 5 | 222 | 265 | 397 | 662 | 174 | 289 | 33 | 3 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA MLE | 4 teams | — | 597 | 539 | 151 | 20 | 3 | 14 | 41 | 134 | 12 | 30 | 6 | 280 | 345 | 406 | 751 | 126 | 337 | 22 | 7 | 327 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 264 | 237 | 57 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 89 | 5 | 12 | 2 | 241 | 313 | 380 | 693 | 139 | 345 | 34 | 8 | 308 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 348 | 318 | 76 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 82 | 2 | 18 | 5 | 239 | 297 | 330 | 627 | 91 | 290 | 24 | 7 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 30 | MLB MLE | Cincinnati Reds | — | 334 | 291 | 74 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 37 | 82 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 254 | 343 | 364 | 708 | 110 | 328 | 25 | 11 | 322 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 28 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 264 | 237 | 57 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 89 | 5 | 12 | 2 | 241 | 313 | 380 | 693 | 139 | 345 | 34 | 8 | 308 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 348 | 318 | 76 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 82 | 2 | 18 | 5 | 239 | 297 | 330 | 627 | 91 | 290 | 24 | 7 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 30 | MLB MLE | Cincinnati Reds | — | 334 | 291 | 74 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 37 | 82 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 254 | 343 | 364 | 708 | 110 | 328 | 25 | 11 | 322 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB MLE | CIN | 100% | 340 | 301 | 75 | 12 | 1 | 8 | 33 | 81 | 3 | 12 | 3 | 247 | 329 | 369 | 698 | 122 | 309 | 24 | 10 | 315 | 99 | -0 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +7 | 0.6 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB CTX | CIN | 100% | 229 | 202 | 51 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 55 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 249 | 331 | 377 | 708 | 128 | 310 | 24 | 10 | 319 | 99 | -0 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +5 | 0.7 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 32 | MLB MLE | CIN | 82% | 211 | 187 | 45 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 51 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 241 | 322 | 356 | 678 | 115 | 305 | 24 | 9 | 307 | 94 | -2 | +1 | -3 | +1 | +5 | 0.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB CTX | CIN | 82% | 173 | 152 | 37 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 42 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 244 | 324 | 363 | 688 | 120 | 306 | 24 | 10 | 311 | 94 | -1 | +0 | -2 | +1 | +4 | 0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1018 | 913 | 227 | 36 | 1 | 22 | 87 | 256 | 10 | 37 | 8 | 249 | 321 | 363 | 683 | 114 | 319 | 25 | 9 | 308 | 93 | -7 | +4 | -3 | +2 | +22 | 1.9 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 583 | 145 | 23 | 1 | 14 | 56 | 163 | 6 | 24 | 5 | 249 | 321 | 364 | 685 | 115 | 320 | 25 | 9 | 308 | 93 | -4 | +3 | -2 | +2 | +14 | 1.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2650 | 2392 | 594 | 94 | 7 | 66 | 194 | 716 | 40 | 109 | 22 | 248 | 315 | 376 | 692 | 128 | 324 | 27 | 7 | 306 | 93 | -8 | +5 | -3 | +3 | +28 | 2.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 587 | 146 | 23 | 2 | 16 | 48 | 176 | 10 | 27 | 5 | 249 | 317 | 376 | 693 | 128 | 325 | 27 | 7 | 306 | 93 | -4 | +3 | -1 | +2 | +14 | 1.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 15 PAwOBA .255 → .194 (−61)K% 26.7% → 32.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.67% | ÷0.978 | ×1.200 | — | — | 32.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 20.00% | ÷1.027 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 13.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.051 | ×0.930 | — | ×0.982 | 21.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.023 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.903 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 110, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 96, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .255 → .194; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .250 → .217. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 121 PAwOBA .324 → .267 (−57)K% 28.1% → 33.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.10% | ÷0.999 | ×1.200 | — | — | 33.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.57% | ÷1.005 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 7.88% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.65% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 1.54% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.35% | ÷1.016 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×0.992 | 24.17% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.04% | ÷0.970 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.992 | 6.27% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.985 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.23% | ÷0.925 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 3.17% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 103, 2B 94, 3B 97, K 100, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .324 → .267; ISO .133 → .103; BABIP .338 → .314. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 223 PAwOBA .406 → .356 (−50)K% 19.3% → 22.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.28% | ÷1.040 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.24% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.31% | ÷1.008 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 7.08% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.24% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 2.11% |
| Singles /BIP | 32.21% | ÷1.016 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×1.003 | 31.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.37% | ÷0.955 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.003 | 4.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.67% | ÷1.039 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×1.003 | 0.66% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.37% | ÷1.031 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 3.66% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 103, 2B 91, 3B 108, K 108, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .406 → .356; ISO .177 → .137; BABIP .396 → .372. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 215 PAwOBA .375 → .308 (−67)K% 17.2% → 21.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.21% | ÷0.990 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.56% | ÷1.056 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.978 | 7.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.33% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.978 | 1.91% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.21% | ÷1.052 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.978 | 23.54% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.14% | ÷0.947 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×0.978 | 4.09% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.38% | ÷1.097 | ×0.880 | ×1.050 | ×0.978 | 1.14% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.83% | ÷1.091 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 3.46% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 110, 2B 89, 3B 119, K 98, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .375 → .308; ISO .170 → .136; BABIP .331 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAErie SeaWolves · 442 PAwOBA .348 → .287 (−62)K% 26.7% → 32.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.70% | ÷0.995 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.72% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.20% | ÷0.992 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 3.63% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.58% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 1.33% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.15% | ÷1.042 | ×0.970 | ×1.012 | ×0.988 | 20.62% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.23% | ÷1.042 | ×0.860 | ×1.012 | ×0.988 | 5.14% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.69% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | ×0.988 | 0.73% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.65% | ÷0.926 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 7.20% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 108, 2B 108, 3B 80, K 99, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.
Result: wOBA .348 → .287; ISO .238 → .191; BABIP .315 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 46 PAwOBA .281 → .232 (−48)K% 32.6% → 38.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.61% | ÷1.008 | ×1.200 | — | — | 38.83% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.17% | ÷0.964 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 1.58% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.35% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 4.16% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.57% | ÷1.015 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.018 | 26.64% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.71% | ÷1.015 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.018 | 8.92% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.026 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 103, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 102, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .281 → .232; ISO .070 → .053; BABIP .393 → .356. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAErie SeaWolves · 104 PAwOBA .322 → .280 (−42)K% 26.0% → 30.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.96% | ÷1.026 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.85% | ÷0.945 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.998 | 2.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.96% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.82% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.71% | ÷1.030 | ×0.940 | ×1.046 | ×0.998 | 24.50% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷0.935 | ×0.870 | ×1.046 | ×0.998 | 6.93% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.43% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×1.046 | ×0.998 | 1.19% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.29% | ÷1.055 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 3.16% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 106, 2B 87, 3B 130, K 105, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.046.
Result: wOBA .322 → .280; ISO .165 → .132; BABIP .353 → .332. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 60 PAwOBA .388 → .297 (−91)K% 33.3% → 45.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.33% | ÷0.988 | ×1.360 | — | — | 45.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.00% | ÷1.017 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.970 | 9.88% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.67% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.970 | 5.04% |
| Singles /BIP | 44.00% | ÷1.002 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.970 | 39.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.00% | ÷0.992 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.970 | 9.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.016 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.970 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.937 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.970 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 100, 2B 98, 3B 103, K 98, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.0 → −3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .388 → .297; ISO .067 → .051; BABIP .519 → .451. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .