Josh Rojas

3B Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 33 L/R 6'1" / 200 lbs AAA HR -15%K -8% Svc 5.168 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

AAA40-MANArb-3FA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	30	MLBSEA	476	.225/.304/.336	8	10	84	1.1
2025	31	MLBCWS	211	.180/.255/.259	2	4	45	-1.3
2026	32	AAAKC	258	.238/.310/.429	9	2	48	—	.180/.231/.310
2026	32	MLBKC	115	.226/.268/.321	2	1	64	-0.1
2027PROJ45% MLB	33	MLBKC	103	.221/.283/.334	2	1	76	-0.1
2028PROJ	34	MLBKC	187	.210/.271/.312	3	1	67	-0.9

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.2 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service5.168First FA2028

2027Arb-3$0.6M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Avg EV39

xwOBA23

Speed23

Barrel%21

Bat Spd17

CompsBryan Holaday (age 33) · Juan Centeno (age 33) · Ryan Flaherty (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 4676vR 87

AVG/OBP/SLG.221 / .283 / .334

PA103

HR2

K%21

BB%8

BABIP268

ISO118

MLB%45%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT45

xAVG

100.213

POWER40

Barrel%

214.5

Avg EV

3988.3

Bat Spd

1767.8

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED40

Sprint

2326.2

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 687 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

590

—

wRC+

▶▶R

wOBA

179

287

▶▶R

ISO

021

115

▶▶R

BABIP

223

271

▶▶R

32.0%

21.2%

▶▶R

BB%

6.2%

9.8%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2019

Service 5.168 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-3	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2017	23	AAA	Fresno Grizzlies	—	16	12	4	0	0	0	4	3	0	0	0	333	500	333	833		444	19	25	401	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	219	195	50	5	5	10	15	43	2	0	0	256	316	487	803	231	268	20	7	340	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	451	390	98	23	4	7	53	76	1	26	14	251	342	385	727	133	291	17	12	324	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	A+	Buies Creek Astros	—	105	90	28	11	2	1	15	13	0	12	0	311	410	511	921	200	355	12	14	405	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	157	138	30	7	0	2	18	41	1	4	2	217	312	312	624	94	295	26	11	289	78	-4	+0	+1	-7	+3	-0.7
2019	25	AAA	Reno Aces	—	284	245	83	20	4	15	35	42	3	20	4	339	428	637	1.064	298	360	15	12	457	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	195	171	55	13	2	8	22	28	2	13	6	322	405	561	967	240	348	14	11	422	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	70	61	11	0	0	0	7	16	0	1	1	180	265	180	445		234	23	10	212	29	-6	-0	+2	+0	+2	-0.3
2021	27	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	550	484	128	32	3	11	58	137	0	9	4	264	341	411	752	147	345	25	11	334	105	+4	+0	-6	+2	+12	1.2
2022	28	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	510	443	119	25	1	9	55	98	2	23	3	269	352	391	743	122	323	19	11	330	103	+2	+3	-2	+2	+11	1.6
2023	29	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	350	314	77	17	0	4	27	81	1	12	0	245	305	338	643	92	313	23	8	287	82	-8	+2	+5	+1	+8	0.9
2023	29	AAA	Reno Aces	—	56	51	13	0	0	2	5	10	0	1	0	255	321	373	694	118	282	18	9	314	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	476	422	95	19	2	8	46	108	3	10	4	225	304	336	641	111	282	23	10	291	84	-9	+0	+8	+2	+10	1.1
2025	31	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	211	189	34	9	0	2	19	48	0	4	1	180	255	259	514	79	227	23	9	236	45	-14	+0	-4	+1	+5	-1.3
2026	32	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	115	106	24	4	0	2	5	17	1	1	0	226	268	321	589	94	250	15	4	259	64	-5	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2026	32	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	258	231	55	15	1	9	23	50	1	2	1	238	310	429	738	190	264	19	9	324	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	2439	2157	518	113	6	38	235	546	8	64	15	240	316	351	667	111	302	22	10	299	89	-32	+7	+3	+2	+53	3.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2017	23	AAA MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	16	13	4	0	0	0	3	4	0	0	0	308	438	308	745		429	25	19	342	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	219	199	40	4	4	7	11	55	2	0	0	201	250	367	617	166	219	25	5	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	451	407	85	18	4	5	36	93	1	26	14	209	275	310	584	101	250	21	8	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	A+ MLE	Buies Creek Astros	—	105	96	24	9	2	1	9	19	0	12	0	250	314	417	731	167	305	18	9	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	157	138	29	6	0	2	18	41	1	4	2	210	306	297	603	87	295	26	11	284	78	-4	+0	+1	-7	+3	-0.7
2019	25	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	284	254	66	15	3	11	26	56	3	20	4	260	336	472	808	213	289	20	9	346	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	195	179	47	11	2	6	14	36	2	13	6	263	323	447	770	184	294	18	7	329	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	70	61	11	0	0	0	7	16	0	1	1	180	265	180	445		234	23	10	211	29	-6	-0	+2	+0	+2	-0.3
2021	27	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	550	489	124	28	2	12	57	137	0	9	4	254	332	393	724	139	345	25	10	324	105	+4	+0	-6	+2	+12	1.2
2022	28	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	510	445	117	22	1	10	53	98	2	23	3	263	344	384	728	121	323	19	10	321	103	+2	+3	-2	+2	+11	1.6
2023	29	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	350	316	77	17	0	4	27	81	1	12	0	244	305	335	641	92	313	23	8	289	82	-8	+2	+5	+1	+8	0.9
2023	29	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	56	54	11	0	0	1	2	13	0	1	0	204	232	259	491	56	247	23	4	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	476	425	95	19	2	8	45	108	3	10	4	224	302	334	636	111	282	23	9	292	84	-9	+0	+8	+2	+10	1.1
2025	31	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	211	189	34	9	0	2	19	48	0	4	1	180	255	259	514	79	227	23	9	235	45	-14	+0	-4	+1	+5	-1.3
2026	32	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	115	106	24	4	0	2	5	17	1	1	0	226	268	321	589	94	250	15	4	263	64	-5	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2026	32	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	258	239	43	11	1	6	15	60	1	2	1	180	231	310	541	130	212	23	6	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	235	213	44	4	4	7	13	59	2	0	0	207	259	362	620	155	240	25	6	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A RAW	2 teams	—	235	207	54	5	5	10	19	46	2	0	0	261	329	478	807	217	278	20	8	344	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	556	503	110	28	6	6	45	112	1	38	14	219	284	334	618	115	266	20	8	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA RAW	2 teams	—	556	480	126	34	6	8	68	89	1	38	14	263	355	408	764	146	303	16	12	339	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	636	571	141	32	5	19	58	133	6	37	12	247	323	420	743	173	290	21	9	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	636	554	168	40	6	25	75	111	6	37	12	303	392	532	925	229	341	17	12	405	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	70	61	11	0	0	0	7	16	0	1	1	180	265	180	445		234	23	10	211	29	-6	-0	+2	+0	+2	-0.3
2020	26	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	70	61	11	0	0	0	7	16	0	1	1	180	265	180	445		234	23	10	212	29	-6	-0	+2	+0	+2	-0.3
2021	27	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	550	489	124	28	2	12	57	137	0	9	4	254	332	393	724	139	327	25	10	324	105	+4	+0	-6	+2	+12	1.2
2021	27	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	550	484	128	32	3	11	58	137	0	9	4	264	341	411	752	147	345	25	11	334	105	+4	+0	-6	+2	+12	1.2
2022	28	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	510	445	117	22	1	10	53	98	2	23	3	263	344	384	728	121	313	19	10	321	103	+2	+3	-2	+2	+11	1.6
2022	28	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	510	443	119	25	1	9	55	98	2	23	3	269	352	391	743	122	323	19	11	330	103	+2	+3	-2	+2	+11	1.6
2023	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	406	370	88	17	0	5	29	94	1	13	0	238	295	324	619	86	302	23	7	282	77	-11	+3	+5	+1	+9	0.7
2023	29	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	406	365	90	17	0	6	32	91	1	13	0	247	307	342	650	96	309	22	8	291	77	-11	+3	+5	+1	+9	0.7
2024	30	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	476	425	95	19	2	8	45	108	3	10	4	224	302	334	636	111	280	23	9	292	84	-9	+0	+8	+2	+10	1.1
2024	30	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	—	476	422	95	19	2	8	46	108	3	10	4	225	304	336	641	111	282	23	10	291	84	-9	+0	+8	+2	+10	1.1
2025	31	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	211	189	34	9	0	2	19	48	0	4	1	180	255	259	514	79	227	23	9	235	45	-14	+0	-4	+1	+5	-1.3
2025	31	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	—	211	189	34	9	0	2	19	48	0	4	1	180	255	259	514	79	227	23	9	236	45	-14	+0	-4	+1	+5	-1.3
2026	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	373	345	68	15	1	8	20	77	2	3	1	197	245	316	561	119	228	21	5	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	373	337	79	19	1	11	28	67	2	3	1	234	297	395	692	160	260	18	8	304	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	235	218	44	4	4	7	13	59	2	0	0	202	259	353	612	151	233	25	6	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	556	505	110	28	6	6	45	112	1	38	14	218	284	333	617	115	260	20	8	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	636	567	141	32	5	19	58	133	6	37	12	249	323	423	746	175	292	21	9	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	70	63	11	0	0	0	7	16	0	1	1	175	265	175	439		234	23	10	211	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	550	488	124	28	2	12	57	137	0	9	4	254	332	393	725	139	345	25	10	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	510	450	117	22	1	10	53	98	2	23	3	260	344	380	724	120	323	19	10	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	406	373	88	17	0	5	29	94	1	13	0	236	295	322	617	86	304	23	7	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	476	425	95	19	2	8	45	108	3	10	4	224	302	334	636	111	282	23	9	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	211	190	34	9	0	2	19	48	0	4	1	179	255	258	513	79	227	23	9	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	373	348	68	15	1	8	20	77	2	3	1	195	245	313	558	118	224	21	5	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	30	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	476	425	95	19	2	8	45	108	3	10	4	224	302	334	636	111	282	23	9	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	211	190	34	9	0	2	19	48	0	4	1	179	255	258	513	79	227	23	9	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	373	348	68	15	1	8	20	77	2	3	1	195	245	313	558	118	224	21	5	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	33	MLB MLE	KC	45%	339	309	69	16	1	6	25	73	2	5	1	223	285	341	626	118	270	22	7	281	76	-10	+1	-1	+1	+7	-0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	33	MLB CTX	KC	45%	103	93	21	5	0	2	8	22	1	1	0	221	283	334	617	114	268	21	8	277	76	-3	+0	-0	+0	+2	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	KC	100%	187	170	37	8	1	3	14	41	1	1	1	212	273	318	592	106	260	22	7	267	67	-7	-0	-6	+1	+4	-0.9
2028	34	MLB CTX	KC	100%	187	170	37	8	1	3	14	41	1	1	1	210	271	312	583	102	258	22	7	264	67	-7	-0	-6	+1	+4	-0.9
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2626	2327	555	121	7	41	249	587	9	65	16	239	314	349	663	111	299	22	9	297	82	-40	+7	-3	+3	+57	2.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	576	138	30	2	10	62	145	2	16	4	240	315	351	665	111	300	22	10	297	82	-10	+2	-1	+1	+14	0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	4438	3989	915	192	23	84	377	972	19	142	42	229	299	352	651	123	280	22	8	290	82	-46	+7	-4	+4	+62	2.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	584	133	28	3	12	55	142	3	21	6	228	297	348	645	120	278	22	8	290	82	-11	+2	-1	+1	+14	0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 258 PAwOBA .317 → .239 (−79)K% 19.4% → 23.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.38%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	23.26%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.91%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.952	5.86%
HBP% /PA	0.39%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	0.35%
Singles /BIP	16.57%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.953	×0.952	13.99%
Doubles /BIP	8.29%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.953	×0.952	6.24%
Triples /BIP	0.55%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.953	×0.952	0.49%
Home runs /BIP	4.97%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.952	3.31%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.953.

Result: wOBA .317 → .239; ISO .190 → .135; BABIP .264 → .212. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAReno Aces · 56 PAwOBA .299 → .237 (−62)K% 17.9% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.86%	÷0.951	×1.200	—	—	22.53%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.14%	÷1.096	×0.690	—	×0.982	4.42%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	0.00%
Singles /BIP	26.83%	÷1.026	×0.930	—	×0.982	23.89%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.059	×0.830	—	×0.982	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	—	×0.982	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.88%	÷1.012	×0.700	—	×0.982	3.31%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 105, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 90, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .299 → .237; ISO .118 → .080; BABIP .282 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAReno Aces · 284 PAwOBA .446 → .346 (−101)K% 14.8% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.79%	÷0.970	×1.290	—	—	19.67%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.32%	÷0.986	×0.710	—	×1.033	9.17%
HBP% /PA	1.06%	—	×0.980	—	×1.033	1.07%
Singles /BIP	21.67%	÷1.035	×0.900	×0.950	×1.033	18.49%
Doubles /BIP	9.85%	÷1.025	×0.810	×0.950	×1.033	7.64%
Triples /BIP	1.97%	÷1.150	×0.810	×0.950	×1.033	1.36%
Home runs /BIP	7.39%	÷1.077	×0.780	—	×1.033	5.53%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 107, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 94, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .446 → .346; ISO .298 → .219; BABIP .360 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 195 PAwOBA .410 → .329 (−80)K% 14.4% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.36%	÷0.958	×1.220	—	—	18.29%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.77%	÷1.043	×0.700	—	×0.998	7.22%
HBP% /PA	1.03%	—	×0.870	—	×0.998	0.89%
Singles /BIP	22.38%	÷1.011	×0.920	×0.950	×0.998	19.30%
Doubles /BIP	9.09%	÷0.949	×0.840	×0.950	×0.998	7.63%
Triples /BIP	1.40%	÷0.995	×0.940	×0.950	×0.998	1.25%
Home runs /BIP	5.59%	÷1.067	×0.800	—	×0.998	4.18%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 102, 2B 90, 3B 99, K 92, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .410 → .329; ISO .240 → .190; BABIP .348 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 451 PAwOBA .320 → .262 (−57)K% 16.9% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.85%	÷0.997	×1.220	—	—	20.62%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.53%	÷1.036	×0.700	—	×1.012	7.88%
HBP% /PA	0.22%	—	×0.870	—	×1.012	0.20%
Singles /BIP	20.38%	÷1.023	×0.920	×0.975	×1.012	18.08%
Doubles /BIP	7.32%	÷1.075	×0.840	×0.975	×1.012	5.65%
Triples /BIP	1.27%	÷0.900	×0.940	×0.975	×1.012	1.31%
Home runs /BIP	2.23%	÷1.059	×0.800	—	×1.012	1.70%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 105, 2B 115, 3B 80, K 99, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.

Result: wOBA .320 → .262; ISO .133 → .110; BABIP .291 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Buies Creek Astros · 105 PAwOBA .395 → .316 (−79)K% 12.4% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.38%	÷0.980	×1.420	—	—	17.94%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.29%	÷1.007	×0.630	—	×0.988	8.83%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.860	—	×0.988	0.00%
Singles /BIP	18.18%	÷1.029	×0.940	×0.958	×0.988	15.73%
Doubles /BIP	14.29%	÷0.915	×0.830	×0.958	×0.988	12.27%
Triples /BIP	2.60%	÷0.931	×0.800	×0.958	×0.988	2.11%
Home runs /BIP	1.30%	÷0.962	×0.900	—	×0.988	1.20%

Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 106, 2B 83, 3B 86, K 96, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.

Result: wOBA .395 → .316; ISO .200 → .172; BABIP .355 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AQuad Cities River Bandits · 219 PAwOBA .341 → .261 (−80)K% 19.6% → 25.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.63%	÷1.057	×1.360	—	—	25.27%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.85%	÷0.982	×0.690	—	×0.990	4.77%
HBP% /PA	0.91%	—	×0.780	—	×0.990	0.71%
Singles /BIP	19.74%	÷1.017	×0.920	×0.950	×0.990	16.80%
Doubles /BIP	3.29%	÷0.956	×0.830	×0.950	×0.990	2.69%
Triples /BIP	3.29%	÷1.150	×0.910	×0.950	×0.990	2.45%
Home runs /BIP	6.58%	÷1.154	×0.800	—	×0.990	4.51%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 131, 1B 103, 2B 91, 3B 130, K 111, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .341 → .261; ISO .231 → .164; BABIP .268 → .219. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAFresno Grizzlies · 16 PAwOBA .392 → .342 (−50)K% 18.8% → 24.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.75%	÷0.992	×1.290	—	—	24.37%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	25.00%	÷1.028	×0.710	—	×1.050	18.13%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	44.44%	÷0.978	×0.900	—	×1.050	42.95%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.926	×0.810	—	×1.050	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.810	—	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.963	×0.780	—	×1.050	0.00%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 96, 2B 85, 3B 130, K 98, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .392 → .342; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .444 → .429. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bill Almon'74-'88 * career totals — 12 seasons, 3,659 PA	5.5	3,659	36	128	249*	303*	364*	+12	+15	8.2	8.9
/162	664	7	23	+2.2	+2.7	1.5	pk7: 10
#2Eric Sogardlast yr '21 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,484 PA	3.7	2,484	26	46	246	312	337	+10	+22	6.0	6.6
/162	664	7	12	+2.7	+5.9	1.6	pk7: 7
#3Jace Petersonlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,753 PA	4.1	2,753	42	77	228	318	337	+4	+5	5.3	6.0
/162	664	10	19	+1.0	+1.3	1.3	pk7: 7
#4Dave Anderson'83-'92 * career totals — 10 seasons, 2,287 PA	3.4	2,287	19	49	240*	312*	342*	+17	+13	5.1	6.0
/162	664	6	14	+5.1	+3.8	1.5	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	4.1	2,729	43	66	237	308	347	+10	+9	4.8	5.3
/162	664	10	16	+2.4	+2.3	1.2	pk7: 6
#5Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	3.3	2,198	35	52	238	326	354	-4	-3	4.3	4.3
/162	664	11	16	-1.3	-0.8	1.3	pk7: 4
#6Pat Kelly'91-'99 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,235 PA	3.4	2,235	36	61	242*	299*	375*	+6	+11	3.7	3.8
/162	664	11	18	+1.7	+3.2	1.1	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Josh Rojas (OGILVIE)	33	45	40	40	60	221/283/338	117	270	4	3	21%	7%	76	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Bryan Holaday 2021 · MLB	33	46	44→45	43→40	49	228/293/346	118	262	12	6	18%	7%	82	-0.0	224/284/381	157	275	18	8	25%	7%	86	+0.3	186/238/360	174	219	21	4	27%	5%	67	-0.3
✕Juan Centeno 2023 · AAA	33	47	46→45	42→40	42	233/273/360	127	270	13	4	20%	4%	77	-0.3	220/263/311	91	300	8	8	28%	5%	61	-1.5	203/243/240	37	305	1	7	32%	5%	34	-1.6
✕Ryan Flaherty 2019 · MLB	33	47	41→55	46→45	49	227/297/320	93	287	9	9	23%	8%	77	-0.3	219/279/363	144	288	17	6	29%	7%	80	-0.1	205/263/355	151	267	19	2	30%	7%	73	-0.5
✕Paul Bako 2005 · MLB	33	46	40→45	44→40	50	221/287/321	101	269	6	5	20%	8%	74	-0.6	220/288/301	81	292	6	5	25%	8%	69	-0.9	217/284/304	87	290	9	0	27%	8%	68	-0.4
✕Jesus Rivera 2011 · AAA	33	52	39→40	39→40	50	244/292/332	88	263	7	4	11%	6%	77	-0.3	233/276/315	82	260	7	4	13%	5%	67	-1.1	259/304/311	52	303	1	4	14%	5%	76	-0.2
✕Luke Carlin 2014 · AAA	33	43	39→45	44→45	51	205/278/285	80	253	7	8	21%	9%	62	-1.4	190/271/285	95	238	8	6	22%	9%	60	-1.6	152/246/239	87	188	6	1	21%	10%	39	-1.1
✕Miguel Ojeda 2008 · MLB	33	45	43→45	43→45	48	222/281/329	107	264	10	5	20%	7%	73	-0.6	237/300/364	127	273	13	8	18%	8%	88	+0.4	237/302/363	127	268	13	7	17%	8%	87	+0.2
✕Howie Clark 2007 · MLB	33	52→55	39→40	44→40	53	243/298/329	86	260	7	6	10%	7%	79	-0.2	240/285/338	98	257	8	6	10%	6%	76	-0.4	249/289/346	97	264	8	4	9%	5%	76	-0.2
✕Jose Munoz 2012 · AAA	33	47→49	42→45	48→50	55	225/305/333	108	269	8	9	19%	10%	82	+0.0	204/276/298	94	265	8	8	25%	9%	64	-1.3	184/260/260	76	239	7	5	25%	9%	48	-1.0
✕Adan Munoz 2011 · AAA	33	47→55	43→50	40→45	44	231/270/343	111	258	11	6	16%	4%	72	-0.7	231/264/352	121	257	14	4	16%	3%	72	-0.7	234/266/326	92	275	9	2	18%	3%	66	-0.6
✕Tyler Ladendorf 2021 · AAA	33	43→49	41→40	46→50	45	210/269/306	96	272	8	9	26%	7%	63	-1.4	209/258/335	126	279	14	8	29%	5%	66	-1.1	176/219/292	116	227	14	2	29%	4%	39	-1.1
✕Mario Lisson 2017 · AAA	33	45→49	45→50	43→55	45	224/294/347	123	297	14	8	28%	8%	82	+0.0	210/274/337	127	276	14	9	28%	8%	72	-0.7	162/219/280	119	197	14	6	26%	7%	37	-1.2
✕Omar Quintanilla 2014 · MLB	32	48→58	41→45	44→45	49	234/294/336	103	285	8	5	21%	8%	79	-0.2	221/276/331	110	268	10	7	21%	6%	71	-0.8	191/222/292	101	220	7	3	17%	3%	40	-1.0
✕Mike Matheny 2004 · MLB	33	48→52	41→45	39→30	48	233/284/329	95	265	9	3	16%	6%	74	-0.6	236/278/359	123	275	12	2	18%	5%	78	-0.3	232/270/358	125	271	12	0	19%	4%	76	-0.3
✕Munenori Kawasaki 2013 · MLB	32	45→54	40→30	45→50	51	218/284/302	84	253	8	11	17%	8%	68	-1.0	230/303/296	66	277	3	11	16%	9%	74	-0.6	230/302/281	51	280	1	11	16%	8%	68	-0.6
✕Mike Freeman 2021 · MLB	33	49→59	45	43→55	47	236/307/357	121	310	13	8	27%	8%	89	+0.5	216/290/328	112	289	11	8	27%	9%	76	-0.4	185/264/270	85	252	8	6	28%	9%	52	-1.0
✕Luis Antonio Rodriguez 2014 · MLB	34	45→50	44→45	40→45	50	218/275/334	116	235	11	5	14%	7%	72	-0.7	229/284/330	101	263	10	7	16%	6%	74	-0.5	267/314/333	66	308	7	4	15%	6%	82	+0.0
✕Beau Taylor 2022 · MLB	32	42→48	42→45	47→30	45	205/284/309	104	291	10	4	31%	9%	70	-0.8	211/293/321	110	297	11	6	30%	9%	76	-0.4	175/280/266	91	247	11	0	31%	11%	57	-0.6
✕Royce Huffman 2009 · AAA	32	45→50	42→45	43→45	48	220/289/327	107	273	9	6	22%	8%	76	-0.4	230/293/331	101	290	9	8	22%	7%	78	-0.3	234/298/316	83	294	6	5	21%	7%	74	-0.5
✕Robinson Cancel 2009 · MLB	33	46	43→45	46→50	44	228/270/343	115	264	11	11	19%	5%	72	-0.7	225/269/315	90	262	7	13	16%	5%	64	-1.3	237/283/323	86	279	7	15	17%	6%	69	-0.5

Josh Rojas

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps