Drew Conover

P Winston-Salem Dash

Age 26 RHP 6'5" / 185 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX4 levels	17	7	40	11.38	6.03	21.0%	26.9%	—	K 15.6% · BB 29.8% · FIP 6.25
2025	24	MIX2 levels	20	9	69	4.67	3.52	18.5%	11.3%	—	K 12.9% · BB 13.9% · FIP 4.49
2026	25	A+CWS	30	1	37	6.14	5.88	15.6%	17.3%	—	K 12.0% · BB 19.9% · FIP 6.52
2027PROJ	26	MLBCWS	—	—	0	6.74	6.74	10.6%	20.0%	—
2028PROJ37% MLB	27	MLBCWS	15	0	16	6.52	6.54	11.9%	19.0%	-0.3
2029PROJ59% MLB	28	MLBCWS	21	0	22	6.41	6.46	12.6%	18.4%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff25Control35Command25

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsMike Hepple (age 26) · Blake Hickman (age 24) · Vanny Valenzuela (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 161153vR 145

ERA6.74

FIP6.74

K%10.6%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%-9.4%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF2525

CTRL3535

CMD2525

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	ROK MLE	ACL Athletics	1	0	1	4	2	2	0	0%	0.7	50.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	5.21	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	ACL Athletics	1	0	1	4	2	2	0	0%	0.7	50.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	6.10	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	17	7	40	238	50	64	2	41%	2.4	15.6%	29.8%	-14.2%	1.3%	11.38	6.25	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	17	7	40	238	50	64	2	41%	2.4	15.6%	29.8%	-14.2%	1.3%	11.38	6.25	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	17	7	40	238	50	64	2	41%	2.4	21.0%	26.9%	-5.9%	0.8%	11.38	6.03	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	9	69	319	59	36	3	45%	3.5	12.9%	13.9%	-1.0%	1.3%	4.67	4.49	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	9	69	319	59	36	3	45%	3.5	12.9%	13.9%	-1.0%	1.3%	4.67	4.49	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	9	69	319	59	36	3	45%	3.5	18.5%	11.3%	7.2%	0.9%	4.67	3.52	—
2026	25	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	30	1	37	179	28	31	5	3%	1.2	12.0%	19.9%	-7.9%	3.5%	6.14	6.52	—
2026	25	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	30	1	37	179	28	31	5	3%	1.2	12.0%	19.9%	-7.9%	3.5%	6.14	6.52	—
2026	25	A+ RAW	Winston-Salem Dash	30	1	37	179	28	31	5	3%	1.2	15.6%	17.3%	-1.7%	2.8%	6.14	5.88	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	CWS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	10.6%	20.0%	-9.4%	3.0%	6.74	6.74	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	CWS	42	0	44	186	22	35	6	0%	1.1	11.9%	19.0%	-7.1%	3.0%	6.52	6.54	-0.9
2029	28	MLB MLE	CWS	35	0	37	155	20	29	5	0%	1.0	12.6%	18.4%	-5.8%	3.1%	6.41	6.46	-0.7
2028	27	MLB CTX	CWS	15	0	16	68	8	13	2	0%	1.1	11.9%	19.0%	-7.1%	3.0%	6.52	6.54	-0.3
2029	28	MLB CTX	CWS	21	0	22	93	12	17	3	0%	1.0	12.6%	18.4%	-5.8%	3.1%	6.41	6.46	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		36	0	38	160	20	30	5	0%	1.1	12.3%	18.7%	-6.4%	3.1%	6.46	6.11	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	106	159	26	0%	1.1	12.3%	18.7%	-6.4%	3.1%	6.46	6.11	-3.6
Career	—	MLE		68	17	147	740	102	153	13	25%	2.2	13.8%	20.7%	-6.9%	1.8%	6.86	5.55	-1.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		93	23	200	1007	139	208	18	25%	2.2	13.8%	20.7%	-6.9%	1.8%	6.86	5.55	-4.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 37 IPFIP 5.51 → 6.52 (+1.02)K% 15.6% → 12.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.64%	—	×0.770	12.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.32%	—	×1.150	19.92%
HR / BF /BF	2.79%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.49%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.51 → 6.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Athletics · 54 IPFIP 3.49 → 4.53 (+1.04)K% 17.1% → 11.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.08%	—	×0.680	11.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.83%	—	×1.250	13.54%
HR / BF /BF	0.83%	÷0.926	×1.400	1.26%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 3.49 → 4.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AStockton Ports · 16 IPFIP 3.47 → 4.38 (+0.91)K% 22.8% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.78%	—	×0.740	16.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.66%	—	×1.180	14.94%
HR / BF /BF	1.27%	÷1.113	×1.300	1.48%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 123).

Result: FIP 3.47 → 4.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Athletics · 26 IPFIP 3.56 → 5.12 (+1.56)K% 26.6% → 18.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.56%	—	×0.680	18.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.97%	—	×1.250	22.46%
HR / BF /BF	0.78%	÷0.852	×1.400	1.28%

Result: FIP 3.56 → 5.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AStockton Ports · 14 IPFIP 6.63 → 7.84 (+1.21)K% 16.5% → 12.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.48%	—	×0.740	12.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	34.07%	—	×1.180	40.20%
HR / BF /BF	1.10%	÷1.164	×1.300	1.23%

Result: FIP 6.63 → 7.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Drew Conover (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.74	10.6%	20.0%	3.0%	—	6.50	12.2%	-6.5%	81	-0.24	—	—	—
Mike Hepple R 2016 · 5.75 FIP	26	SU	5.75	11.1%	18.5%	2.3%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	116	83
Blake Hickman R 2018 · 6.57 FIP	24	SW	6.57	12.9%	17.8%	4.2%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	4.19	156	77
Vanny Valenzuela R 2015 · 6.82 FIP	27	SW	6.82	12.4%	14.8%	5.3%	.314	4.29	15.8%	4.6%	70	-2.53	3.26	118	76
Alex Caldera R 2015 · 5.57 FIP	29	SW	5.57	10.4%	13.1%	3.1%	.333	4.54	11.9%	0.8%	84	-1.03	4.54	120	76
Clate Schmidt R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	25	SU	5.66	13.5%	13.9%	3.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	160	76
Ricky Salinas R 2022 · 5.79 FIP	26	SU	5.79	14.3%	15.1%	3.6%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	274	75
Jesús Reyes R 2019 · 5.71 FIP	26	SU	5.71	15.9%	15.7%	3.6%	.283	5.11	17.5%	5.6%	118	-0.60	3.85	554	75
Jake Haberer R 2021 · 6.54 FIP	26	SU	6.54	13.4%	17.5%	4.3%	.287	5.15	19.6%	4.0%	106	-1.39	3.46	183	74
Tommy DeJuneas R 2021 · 5.65 FIP	25	SU	5.65	13.7%	17.6%	2.7%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	178	74
Wandi Montout R 2022 · 5.59 FIP	25	SU	5.59	13.4%	18.7%	2.3%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	103	73
Hunter Dollander R 2023 · 6.77 FIP	26	SU	6.77	17.6%	18.3%	5.2%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	106	73
Ryan Olson R 2022 · 6.71 FIP	27	SU	6.71	9.0%	26.2%	1.9%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	102	73
Cre Finfrock R 2022 · 6.31 FIP	26	SU	6.31	16.7%	25.2%	2.6%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	103	72
Ted Stuka R 2023 · 7.45 FIP	26	SU	7.45	15.2%	36.8%	1.8%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	5.36	105	71
Parker French R 2018 · 5.80 FIP	25	SW	5.80	7.8%	16.0%	2.4%	.340	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	415	70
Edward Baram R 2022 · 6.38 FIP	25	SU	6.38	11.8%	18.3%	3.6%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	5.05	119	70
Danny Cody R 2022 · 6.32 FIP	25	SU	6.32	11.4%	18.3%	3.4%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	6.32	106	70
Jake Ehret R 2017 · 5.64 FIP	24	SU	5.64	12.3%	15.8%	2.9%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	173	69
Michael Kelly R 2018 · 6.36 FIP	25	SW	6.36	14.6%	24.2%	2.6%	.299	3.51	24.8%	15.9%	45	-2.85	2.70	666	69
Jacob Dahlstrand R 2017 · 5.73 FIP	25	SW	5.73	8.6%	13.8%	2.9%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	3.06	119	69

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	47	11.5%	19.3%	1.17	6.58
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Matt Perisho ('05)	1.4	69	15.2%	12.2%	1.37	6.39
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Lloyd Allen ('69-'75, -5 WAR*)	1.5	59	19.8%*	13.9%*	0.79*	5.99*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*