Michael Kelly
P
Las Vegas Aviators
Age 33
RHP
6'4" / 185 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION30 act + 55 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119110vR 101
ERA4.00
FIP4.26
K%19.7%
BB%10.5%
K-BB%9.1%
ROS IP55
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 85 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p6895.8
Whiff%
p2822.2%
K%
p1817.5%
xwOBA vs
p280.338
SI (9%)
FB-0.8 (31%)
SL-1.5 (68%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 18 | 97 | 423 | 57 | 31 | 10 | 95% | 5.1 | 10.1% | 8.6% | 1.5% | 4.0% | 5.68 | 5.51 | — |
| 2015 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 18 | 97 | 423 | 57 | 31 | 10 | 95% | 5.1 | 13.5% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 2.4% | 5.68 | 4.23 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 25 | 129 | 544 | 115 | 51 | 9 | 100% | 5.1 | 17.5% | 10.2% | 7.3% | 1.9% | 4.34 | 3.97 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 25 | 129 | 544 | 115 | 51 | 9 | 100% | 5.1 | 21.1% | 9.4% | 11.8% | 1.7% | 4.34 | 3.41 | — |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 22 | 127 | 542 | 128 | 55 | 12 | 79% | 4.5 | 19.6% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 2.5% | 4.19 | 4.23 | — |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 22 | 127 | 542 | 128 | 55 | 12 | 79% | 4.5 | 23.6% | 10.1% | 13.5% | 2.2% | 4.19 | 3.61 | — |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 8 | 67 | 348 | 62 | 77 | 8 | 26% | 2.2 | 14.6% | 24.2% | -9.6% | 2.5% | 8.42 | 6.28 | — |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 8 | 67 | 348 | 62 | 77 | 8 | 26% | 2.2 | 17.8% | 22.1% | -4.3% | 2.3% | 8.42 | 6.23 | — |
| 2021 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 50 | 210 | 62 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.8% | 8.9% | 15.9% | 2.7% | 2.70 | 3.61 | — |
| 2021 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 50 | 210 | 62 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 29.5% | 8.1% | 21.4% | 2.4% | 2.70 | 2.94 | — |
| 2022 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 1 | 55 | 243 | 70 | 25 | 9 | 2% | 1.1 | 25.6% | 11.1% | 14.5% | 3.6% | 5.07 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 1 | 55 | 243 | 70 | 25 | 9 | 2% | 1.1 | 28.8% | 10.3% | 18.5% | 3.7% | 5.07 | 4.05 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 48 | 0 | 56 | 250 | 77 | 30 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 27.6% | 12.8% | 14.8% | 1.3% | 3.51 | 3.08 | +1.0 |
| 2023 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 48 | 0 | 56 | 250 | 77 | 30 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 30.8% | 12.0% | 18.8% | 1.2% | 3.51 | 2.66 | +1.2 |
| 2024 | 31 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 28 | 0 | 31 | 128 | 22 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.2% | 7.0% | 10.2% | 1.6% | 2.59 | 3.44 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 31 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 28 | 0 | 31 | 128 | 22 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.2% | 7.0% | 10.2% | 1.6% | 2.59 | 3.39 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 32 | MLB | Athletics | 42 | 0 | 40 | 166 | 29 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 0.9 | 17.5% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 3.2% | 3.18 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| 2025 | 32 | MLB | Athletics | 42 | 0 | 40 | 166 | 29 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 0.9 | 17.5% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 3.0% | 3.18 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | Athletics | 27 | 0 | 30 | 142 | 36 | 16 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.0% | 9.5% | 14.5% | 1.0% | 5.34 | 2.83 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | OAK | 52 | 0 | 55 | 231 | 45 | 24 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.7% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 2.7% | 4.00 | 4.26 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | OAK | 52 | 0 | 55 | 232 | 46 | 24 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.7% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 2.7% | 4.00 | 4.26 | +0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 33 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 85 | 373 | 81 | 40 | 8 | — | — | 21.8% | 10.8% | 11.0% | 2.2% | 4.48 | 3.75 | +1.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 33 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 60 | 252 | 81 | 40 | 8 | — | — | 32.3% | 16.0% | 16.3% | 3.3% | 6.37 | 4.19 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | OAK | 52 | 0 | 54 | 229 | 43 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.7% | 11.6% | 7.1% | 3.1% | 4.85 | 5.08 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | OAK | 46 | 0 | 49 | 206 | 37 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.1% | 11.9% | 6.1% | 3.4% | 5.13 | 5.36 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | OAK | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 32 | 23 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.3% | 12.4% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 5.43 | 5.67 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | OAK | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 41 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.7% | 11.6% | 7.1% | 3.1% | 4.85 | 5.08 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | OAK | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 34 | 22 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.1% | 11.9% | 6.1% | 3.4% | 5.13 | 5.36 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | OAK | 33 | 0 | 35 | 148 | 26 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.3% | 12.4% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 5.43 | 5.67 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 270 | 0 | 283 | 1198 | 223 | 131 | 34 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.6% | 11.0% | 7.6% | 2.8% | 4.42 | 4.48 | +3.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 191 | 0 | 200 | 848 | 158 | 93 | 24 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.6% | 11.0% | 7.6% | 2.8% | 4.42 | 4.48 | +2.1 | ||
| Career | — | 340 | 74 | 682 | 2996 | 563 | 352 | 76 | 22% | 2.0 | 18.8% | 11.7% | 7.1% | 2.5% | 4.67 | 4.39 | +8.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 100 | 22 | 200 | 879 | 165 | 103 | 22 | 22% | 2.0 | 18.8% | 11.7% | 7.1% | 2.5% | 4.67 | 4.39 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Michael Kelly (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.72 | 19.2% | 10.6% | 2.8% | — | 5.35 | 18.1% | 6.2% | 146 | +0.63 | — | — | — |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2029 · 4.09 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.09 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .267 | 6.61 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.52 | 4.09 | 145 | 79 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2027 · 4.65 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.65 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .347 | 3.78 | 14.0% | 6.5% | 79 | -0.87 | 3.32 | 119 | 78 |
| Manny Acosta R 2028 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 77 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 77 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2025 · 3.77 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.77 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .331 | 5.83 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.06 | 3.37 | 170 | 76 |
| Ivan Maldonado R 2028 · 4.91 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.91 | 12.8% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .269 | 5.68 | 6.4% | -3.3% | 104 | +0.77 | 4.91 | 172 | 75 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 74 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 5.47 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.47 | 15.0% | 14.5% | 3.3% | .300 | 4.24 | 20.9% | 13.0% | 145 | -1.23 | 3.83 | 208 | 74 |
| Logan Kensing R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.55 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.5% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.49 | 2.77 | 172 | 74 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2025 · 4.62 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.62 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.1% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 221 | 74 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2024 · 4.23 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.23 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 2.0% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.46 | 108 | 73 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2026 · 5.46 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.46 | 14.3% | 10.4% | 4.1% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.09 | 148 | 72 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.77 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 1.9% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 272 | 72 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.84 | 17.4% | 11.4% | 3.2% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 253 | 72 |
| Felipe Arredondo R 2025 · 4.91 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.91 | 16.2% | 7.1% | 4.2% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 337 | 72 |
| Tyler Thornburg R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.89 | 17.5% | 11.2% | 1.6% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.67 | 301 | 71 |
| Angel Sánchez R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 19.4% | 12.2% | 3.6% | .333 | 3.80 | 12.1% | 6.3% | 27 | -1.18 | 3.80 | 284 | 71 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 21.3% | 11.4% | 3.0% | .274 | 3.99 | 19.7% | 8.3% | 169 | -0.41 | 2.78 | 596 | 71 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.22 | 20.0% | 9.7% | 2.9% | .302 | 2.90 | 24.2% | 15.4% | 98 | -1.32 | 2.82 | 284 | 71 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 5.21 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.21 | 18.0% | 9.6% | 4.4% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 176 | 71 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 51 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 1.25 | 4.92 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |