Michael Kelly

P Las Vegas Aviators

Age 34 RHP 6'4" / 185 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	31	MLBOakland Athle…	28	31	2.59	3.39	17.2%	7.0%	0.4
2025	32	MLBOAK	42	40	3.18	4.49	17.5%	9.6%	0.0
2026	33	MIX2 levels	27	30	5.34	3.17	25.4%	11.3%	0.5	K 23.5% · BB 8.2% · FIP 2.70
2027PROJ	34	MLBOAK	45	47	4.31	4.51	20.2%	10.0%	0.0
2028PROJ83% MLB	35	MLBOAK	21	22	4.61	4.82	19.6%	10.5%	-0.1
2029PROJ74% MLB	36	MLBOAK	9	9	4.92	5.15	18.9%	11.0%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.0 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

FB Velo68

xwOBA vs28

K%18

CompsDiego Moreno (age 34) · Rudy Gonzalez (age 34) · Keiichi Yabu (age 36)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.31

FIP4.51

K%20.2%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%10.2%

Proj IP53

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD3535

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6895.8

Whiff%

p2822.2%

p1817.5%

xwOBA vs

p280.338

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	18	97	423	57	31	10	95%	5.1	10.1%	8.6%	1.5%	3.4%	5.68	5.19	—
2015	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	18	97	423	57	31	10	95%	5.1	13.5%	7.3%	6.1%	2.4%	5.68	4.23	—
2016	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	25	129	544	115	51	9	100%	5.1	17.5%	10.2%	7.3%	1.9%	4.34	3.96	—
2016	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	25	129	544	115	51	9	100%	5.1	21.1%	9.4%	11.8%	1.7%	4.34	3.41	—
2017	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	22	127	542	128	55	12	79%	4.5	19.6%	10.9%	8.7%	2.5%	4.19	4.22	—
2017	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	22	127	542	128	55	12	79%	4.5	23.6%	10.1%	13.5%	2.2%	4.19	3.61	—
2018	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	8	67	348	62	77	8	26%	2.2	14.6%	24.2%	-9.6%	2.6%	8.42	6.36	—
2018	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	8	67	348	62	77	8	26%	2.2	17.8%	22.1%	-4.3%	2.3%	8.42	6.23	—
2021	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	50	210	62	17	5	0%	1.2	24.8%	8.9%	15.9%	2.5%	2.70	3.51	—
2021	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	50	210	62	17	5	0%	1.2	29.5%	8.1%	21.4%	2.4%	2.70	2.94	—
2022	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	1	55	243	70	25	9	2%	1.1	25.6%	11.1%	14.5%	3.7%	5.07	4.39	+0.1
2022	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	1	55	243	70	25	9	2%	1.1	28.8%	10.3%	18.5%	3.7%	5.07	4.05	+0.3
2023	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	48	0	56	250	77	30	3	0%	1.2	27.1%	11.5%	15.6%	1.3%	3.51	2.98	+1.1
2023	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	48	0	56	250	77	30	3	0%	1.2	30.8%	12.0%	18.8%	1.2%	3.51	2.66	+1.3
2024	31	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	28	0	31	128	22	9	2	0%	1.1	17.2%	7.0%	10.2%	1.7%	2.59	3.48	+0.4
2024	31	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	28	0	31	128	22	9	2	0%	1.1	17.2%	7.0%	10.2%	1.7%	2.59	3.48	+0.4
2024	31	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	28	0	31	128	22	9	2	0%	1.1	17.2%	7.0%	10.2%	1.6%	2.59	3.39	+0.4
2025	32	MLB MLE	Athletics	42	0	40	166	29	16	5	0%	0.9	17.5%	9.6%	7.8%	3.1%	3.18	4.54	+0.0
2025	32	MLB MLE	Athletics	42	0	40	166	29	16	5	0%	0.9	17.5%	9.6%	7.8%	3.1%	3.18	4.54	+0.0
2025	32	MLB RAW	Athletics	42	0	40	166	29	16	5	0%	0.9	17.5%	9.6%	7.8%	3.0%	3.18	4.49	+0.0
2026	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	0	30	142	36	16	2	0%	1.1	23.5%	8.2%	15.3%	1.0%	5.34	2.70	+0.7
2026	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	0	30	142	36	16	2	0%	1.1	23.5%	8.2%	15.3%	1.0%	5.34	2.70	+0.7
2026	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	0	30	142	36	16	2	0%	1.1	25.4%	11.3%	14.1%	1.4%	5.34	3.17	+0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			93	0	97	413	77	41	9	0%	1.0	18.6%	9.9%	8.7%	2.2%	3.72	3.99	+0.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	34	MLB	OAK	45	0	47	198	40	20	5	0%	1.0	20.2%	10.0%	10.2%	2.7%	4.31	4.51	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	35	MLB MLE	OAK	25	0	26	110	22	12	3	0%	1.0	19.6%	10.5%	9.1%	3.0%	4.61	4.82	-0.1
2029	36	MLB MLE	OAK	12	0	13	54	10	6	2	0%	1.1	18.9%	11.0%	7.8%	3.4%	4.92	5.15	-0.1
2028	35	MLB CTX	OAK	21	0	22	93	18	10	3	0%	1.0	19.6%	10.5%	9.1%	3.0%	4.61	4.82	-0.1
2029	36	MLB CTX	OAK	9	0	9	38	7	4	1	0%	1.0	18.9%	11.0%	7.8%	3.4%	4.92	5.15	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		123	0	128	545	103	55	13	0%	1.0	18.8%	10.1%	8.7%	2.4%	3.96	4.12	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		192	0	200	852	161	86	20	0%	1.0	18.8%	10.1%	8.7%	2.4%	3.96	4.12	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		340	74	682	2996	561	346	74	22%	2.0	18.7%	11.6%	7.2%	2.5%	4.67	4.33	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		100	22	200	879	165	102	22	22%	2.0	18.7%	11.6%	7.2%	2.5%	4.67	4.33	+0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 25 IPFIP 2.45 → 2.70 (+0.26)K% 27.3% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.27%	—	×0.860	23.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×0.900	8.18%
HR / BF /BF	0.91%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.45 → 2.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAColumbus Clippers · 38 IPFIP 2.76 → 3.06 (+0.30)K% 33.7% → 29.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.72%	—	×0.860	29.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.21%	—	×0.900	10.99%
HR / BF /BF	1.74%	÷1.037	×1.100	1.85%

Result: FIP 2.76 → 3.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 51 IPFIP 3.92 → 4.39 (+0.48)K% 29.1% → 25.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.07%	—	×0.880	25.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.57%	—	×1.050	11.10%
HR / BF /BF	3.52%	÷1.039	×1.100	3.73%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 108).

Result: FIP 3.92 → 4.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAASugar Land Skeeters · 45 IPFIP 2.97 → 3.51 (+0.55)K% 28.2% → 24.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.19%	—	×0.880	24.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.51%	—	×1.050	8.94%
HR / BF /BF	2.13%	÷0.935	×1.100	2.50%

Result: FIP 2.97 → 3.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 5 IPFIP 2.72 → 3.72 (+1.01)K% 40.9% → 33.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.91%	—	×0.810	33.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.55%	—	×1.100	5.00%
HR / BF /BF	4.55%	÷1.074	×1.200	5.08%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 115).

Result: FIP 2.72 → 3.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AABowie Baysox · 56 IPFIP 5.89 → 6.68 (+0.79)K% 18.9% → 15.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.90%	—	×0.810	15.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	22.68%	—	×1.100	24.95%
HR / BF /BF	2.75%	÷1.060	×1.200	3.11%

Result: FIP 5.89 → 6.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAANorfolk Tides · 11 IPFIP 4.51 → 4.75 (+0.25)K% 12.3% → 10.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.28%	—	×0.880	10.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.30%	—	×1.050	20.26%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.964	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 4.51 → 4.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AASan Antonio Missions · 85 IPFIP 2.93 → 3.73 (+0.80)K% 26.5% → 21.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.45%	—	×0.810	21.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.72%	—	×1.100	9.59%
HR / BF /BF	1.74%	÷0.940	×1.200	2.23%

Result: FIP 2.93 → 3.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michael Kelly (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.51	20.2%	10.0%	2.7%	—	4.93	19.3%	8.7%	39	+0.42	—	—	—
Diego Moreno R 2021 · 4.75 FIP	34	SU	4.75	18.6%	9.4%	3.7%	.232	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	187	75
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	73
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	72
Leo Rosales R 2015 · 3.99 FIP	34	SU	3.99	18.1%	10.8%	1.9%	.261	4.24	7.8%	-0.4%	22	+0.25	3.85	130	71
Matt Miller R 2006 · 4.98 FIP	34	SU	4.98	18.5%	13.8%	3.1%	.214	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	101	70
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	68
Zack Segovia R 2016 · 3.33 FIP	33	SU	3.33	20.2%	5.9%	2.2%	.312	4.55	17.6%	4.0%	57	+1.22	3.33	144	68
Chris Jakubauskas R 2011 · 4.42 FIP	32	SW	4.42	15.7%	7.9%	3.0%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	165	68
Dustin Molleken R 2017 · 3.38 FIP	32	SU	3.38	24.3%	12.4%	1.4%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	129	68
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2018 · 4.07 FIP	34	SW	4.07	23.7%	9.9%	3.1%	.253	5.11	25.0%	13.8%	32	+1.04	3.34	335	68
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	68
Jean Machi R 2016 · 4.36 FIP	34	SU	4.36	18.3%	6.6%	3.6%	.282	4.12	18.6%	12.0%	67	-0.24	2.16	306	67
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	67
Matt Bush R 2018 · 4.72 FIP	32	SU	4.72	17.6%	13.0%	2.7%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	249	66
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	66
Joe Nelson R 2009 · 5.35 FIP	34	SU	5.35	19.8%	14.3%	3.9%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	139	66
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	66
Willie Eyre R 2011 · 4.18 FIP	33	SU	4.18	13.9%	6.9%	2.5%	.182	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	164	66
Jim Miller R 2016 · 5.43 FIP	34	SU	5.43	20.4%	14.1%	4.1%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	140	65
Carlos Fisher R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	34	SU	3.91	18.1%	12.9%	1.3%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	245	65

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	38	19.2%	10.6%	0.97	4.09
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
Chris Ray ('11)	1.4	47	19.1%	10.2%	1.12	4.10
Ray Searage ('81-'90, 4 WAR*)	1.4	41	21.0%*	10.8%*	0.84*	3.70*
Mark Dewey ('90-'96, 3 WAR*)	1.2	42	18.7%*	9.6%*	0.80*	3.89*
Brad Clontz ('00)	1.4	56	17.4%	9.9%	0.97	4.34