Michael Kelly
P
Athletics
+0.0
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 33
RHP
6'4" / 185 lbs
MLB
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA3.93
FIP4.49
xFIP5.34
SIERA5.57
K%20.2%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%10.8%
IP27
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL4545
CMD3535
K†5050
FB Velo
p6895.8
Whiff%
p2822.2%
K%
p1817.5%
xwOBA vs
p280.338
SI (11%)
CH (1%)
FB-0.8 (35%)
SL-1.5 (63%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | A+ | Lake Elsinore Storm | 19 | 18 | 97 | 423 | 57 | 31 | 10 | 10.1% | 8.6% | 3.4% | 5.68 | 5.22 | +0.1 |
| 2016 | 23 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 25 | 25 | 129 | 544 | 115 | 51 | 9 | 17.5% | 10.2% | 1.9% | 4.34 | 3.99 | +1.9 |
| 2017 | 24 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 28 | 22 | 127 | 542 | 128 | 55 | 12 | 19.6% | 10.9% | 2.5% | 4.19 | 4.21 | +1.6 |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 31 | 8 | 67 | 348 | 62 | 77 | 8 | 14.6% | 24.2% | 2.6% | 8.42 | 6.36 | -1.0 |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA | Sugar Land Skeeters | 41 | 0 | 50 | 210 | 62 | 17 | 5 | 24.8% | 8.9% | 2.5% | 2.70 | 3.53 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 51 | 1 | 55 | 243 | 70 | 25 | 9 | 25.6% | 11.1% | 3.8% | 5.07 | 4.41 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 30 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 48 | 0 | 56 | 250 | 77 | 30 | 3 | 27.6% | 12.8% | 1.3% | 3.51 | 3.11 | +1.2 |
| 2024 | 31 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 28 | 0 | 31 | 128 | 22 | 9 | 2 | 17.2% | 7.0% | 1.6% | 2.59 | 3.43 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 32 | MLB | Athletics | 42 | 0 | 40 | 166 | 29 | 16 | 5 | 17.5% | 9.6% | 3.2% | 3.18 | 4.60 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | Athletics | 5 | 0 | 5 | 26 | 7 | 5 | 1 | — | — | — | 5.06 | — | — |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | OAK | 6 | — | 6 | 27 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 20.9% | 10.4% | 2.8% | 4.06 | 4.57 | +0.0 |
| 2026 Total | 33 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 12 | 53 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 23.8% | 14.8% | 3.3% | 4.52 | 2.49 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | OAK | 25 | — | 25 | 107 | 22 | 12 | 3 | 20.2% | 10.9% | 3.0% | 4.53 | 4.79 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 318 | 74 | 657 | 2880 | 536 | 343 | 74 | 18.6% | 11.9% | 2.6% | 4.64 | 4.45 | +6.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 97 | 23 | 200 | 877 | 163 | 104 | 23 | 18.6% | 11.9% | 2.6% | 4.64 | 4.45 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Michael Kelly (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.57 | 20.9% | 10.4% | 2.8% | — | 4.79 | 20.2% | 9.3% | 25 | +0.22 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 87 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.63 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 1.8% | .331 | 6.11 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.48 | 3.45 | 170 | 85 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.52 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.2% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 115 | 81 |
| Manny Acosta R 2028 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 80 |
| Logan Kensing R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.61 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.72 | 172 | 79 |
| Ryan Cook R 2024 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 78 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.18 | 20.0% | 9.7% | 2.8% | .302 | 2.90 | 24.2% | 15.4% | 98 | -1.28 | 2.80 | 284 | 78 |
| Josh Lueke R 2027 · 4.14 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.14 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 3.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 107 | 77 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.83 | 18.0% | 8.0% | 4.1% | .286 | 3.13 | 23.7% | 17.9% | 150 | -1.70 | 2.31 | 403 | 77 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 77 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2024 · 4.33 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.33 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 2.2% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 108 | 77 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.82 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.17 | 272 | 76 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2029 · 4.12 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.12 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .267 | 6.46 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.34 | 4.12 | 145 | 76 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.0% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 221 | 76 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.31 | 21.3% | 11.4% | 2.9% | .274 | 4.08 | 19.7% | 8.3% | 169 | -0.23 | 2.86 | 596 | 76 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.25 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.2% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 120 | 75 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2028 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 75 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 122 | 75 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.39 | 14.3% | 10.4% | 4.0% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 148 | 75 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.38 | 24.8% | 12.0% | 1.6% | .356 | 4.65 | 23.0% | 9.8% | 66 | +1.27 | 2.80 | 410 | 75 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.