Michael Kelly — OGILVIE

Michael Kelly P Las Vegas Aviators

Age 33 RHP 6'4" / 185 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION30 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.02

FIP4.27

K%19.4%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%9.1%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD3535

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6895.8

Whiff%

p2822.2%

p1817.5%

xwOBA vs

p280.338

SI (9%)

FB-0.8 (31%)

SL-1.5 (68%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	18	97	423	57	31	10	95%	5.1	10.1%	8.6%	1.5%	3.4%	5.68	5.19	—
2015	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	18	97	423	57	31	10	95%	5.1	13.5%	7.3%	6.1%	2.4%	5.68	4.23	—
2016	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	25	129	544	115	51	9	100%	5.1	17.5%	10.2%	7.3%	1.9%	4.34	3.96	—
2016	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	25	129	544	115	51	9	100%	5.1	21.1%	9.4%	11.8%	1.7%	4.34	3.41	—
2017	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	22	127	542	128	55	12	79%	4.5	19.6%	10.9%	8.7%	2.5%	4.19	4.22	—
2017	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	22	127	542	128	55	12	79%	4.5	23.6%	10.1%	13.5%	2.2%	4.19	3.61	—
2018	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	8	67	348	62	77	8	26%	2.2	14.6%	24.2%	-9.6%	2.6%	8.42	6.36	—
2018	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	8	67	348	62	77	8	26%	2.2	17.8%	22.1%	-4.3%	2.3%	8.42	6.23	—
2021	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	50	210	62	17	5	0%	1.2	24.8%	8.9%	15.9%	2.5%	2.70	3.51	—
2021	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	50	210	62	17	5	0%	1.2	29.5%	8.1%	21.4%	2.4%	2.70	2.94	—
2022	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	1	55	243	70	25	9	2%	1.1	25.6%	11.1%	14.5%	3.7%	5.07	4.39	+0.1
2022	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	1	55	243	70	25	9	2%	1.1	28.8%	10.3%	18.5%	3.7%	5.07	4.05	+0.3
2023	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	48	0	56	250	77	30	3	0%	1.2	26.4%	11.5%	14.9%	1.3%	3.51	3.04	+1.0
2023	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	48	0	56	250	77	30	3	0%	1.2	26.4%	11.5%	14.9%	1.3%	3.51	3.04	+1.0
2023	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	48	0	56	250	77	30	3	0%	1.2	30.8%	12.0%	18.8%	1.2%	3.51	2.66	+1.3
2024	31	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	28	0	31	128	22	9	2	0%	1.1	17.2%	7.0%	10.2%	1.7%	2.59	3.48	+0.4
2024	31	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	28	0	31	128	22	9	2	0%	1.1	17.2%	7.0%	10.2%	1.7%	2.59	3.48	+0.4
2024	31	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	28	0	31	128	22	9	2	0%	1.1	17.2%	7.0%	10.2%	1.6%	2.59	3.39	+0.4
2025	32	MLB MLE	Athletics	42	0	40	166	29	16	5	0%	0.9	17.5%	9.6%	7.8%	3.1%	3.18	4.54	+0.0
2025	32	MLB MLE	Athletics	42	0	40	166	29	16	5	0%	0.9	17.5%	9.6%	7.8%	3.1%	3.18	4.54	+0.0
2025	32	MLB RAW	Athletics	42	0	40	166	29	16	5	0%	0.9	17.5%	9.6%	7.8%	3.0%	3.18	4.49	+0.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			93	0	97	413	77	41	9	0%	1.0	18.6%	9.9%	8.7%	2.2%	3.72	3.99	+0.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	33	MLB MLE	Athletics	27	0	30	142	36	16	2	0%	1.1	22.6%	8.2%	14.5%	1.0%	5.34	2.77	—
YTD	33	MLB MLE	Athletics	27	0	30	142	36	16	2	0%	1.1	22.6%	8.2%	14.5%	1.0%	5.34	2.77	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	33	AAA RAW	OAK	22	0	25	110	30	10	1	0%	1.2	27.3%	9.1%	18.2%	0.9%	3.20	2.45	—
2026	33	MLB RAW	OAK	5	0	5	32	6	6	1	0%	1.0	18.8%	18.8%	0.0%	3.1%	16.20	5.61	—
SO FAR	33	MLB RAW	OAK	5	0	5	32	6	6	1	0%	1.0	18.8%	18.8%	0.0%	3.1%	16.20	5.61	—
ROS	33	MLB MLE	OAK	5	0	5	21	4	2	1	0%	1.0	19.4%	10.3%	9.1%	2.8%	4.02	4.27	+0.0
ROS	33	MLB CTX	OAK	5	0	5	21	4	2	1	0%	1.0	19.4%	10.3%	9.1%	2.8%	4.02	4.27	+0.0
2026 TOT	33	MLB MLE	OAK	—	—	35	163	40	18	3	—	—	24.6%	11.1%	13.4%	1.6%	5.15	2.99	+0.7
FULL	33	MLB A+C	OAK	—	—	10	42	40	18	3	—	—	94.8%	43.0%	51.8%	6.1%	18.17	3.89	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	OAK	52	0	54	229	43	26	7	0%	1.0	18.6%	11.5%	7.2%	3.1%	4.85	5.07	-0.3
2028	35	MLB MLE	OAK	46	0	49	206	37	24	7	0%	1.1	18.0%	11.8%	6.2%	3.4%	5.12	5.35	-0.4
2029	36	MLB MLE	OAK	41	0	43	182	31	22	7	0%	1.1	17.2%	12.3%	4.9%	3.8%	5.42	5.66	-0.5
2027	34	MLB CTX	OAK	50	0	52	220	41	25	7	0%	1.0	18.6%	11.5%	7.2%	3.1%	4.85	5.07	-0.3
2028	35	MLB CTX	OAK	42	0	44	186	33	22	6	0%	1.0	18.0%	11.8%	6.2%	3.4%	5.12	5.35	-0.4
2029	36	MLB CTX	OAK	33	0	35	148	25	18	6	0%	1.1	17.2%	12.3%	4.9%	3.8%	5.42	5.66	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		223	0	233	988	181	109	28	0%	1.0	18.3%	11.0%	7.3%	2.9%	4.50	4.53	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		191	0	200	849	155	94	24	0%	1.0	18.3%	11.0%	7.3%	2.9%	4.50	4.53	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		340	74	682	2996	558	346	74	22%	2.0	18.6%	11.6%	7.1%	2.5%	4.67	4.34	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		100	22	200	879	164	102	22	22%	2.0	18.6%	11.6%	7.1%	2.5%	4.67	4.34	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michael Kelly (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.71	19.1%	10.4%	2.8%	—	5.34	18.0%	6.2%	146	+0.63	—	—	—
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	4.15	145	79
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	78
Manny Acosta R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	35	SU	4.19	18.1%	9.1%	2.7%	.273	3.08	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.11	3.08	102	78
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	77
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	76
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	75
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	4.12	186	75
Logan Kensing R 2015 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	17.6%	8.8%	1.5%	.270	3.06	17.9%	10.0%	124	-0.50	2.73	172	75
Dustin McGowan R 2015 · 5.32 FIP	33	SU	5.32	15.0%	14.5%	3.0%	.300	4.23	20.9%	13.0%	145	-1.09	3.82	208	74
Tom Wilhelmsen R 2017 · 5.42 FIP	33	SU	5.42	14.3%	10.4%	4.0%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.07	148	74
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	74
Clayton Mortensen R 2017 · 4.59 FIP	32	SU	4.59	23.2%	14.2%	3.0%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	221	74
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	73
Bryan Shaw R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	33	SU	4.39	21.3%	11.4%	3.0%	.274	3.93	19.2%	8.7%	169	-0.46	2.78	596	72
Jumbo Diaz R 2017 · 4.17 FIP	33	SU	4.17	20.0%	9.7%	2.8%	.302	2.90	24.2%	15.4%	98	-1.27	2.80	284	72
Cory Gearrin R 2019 · 3.78 FIP	33	SU	3.78	19.5%	10.0%	1.9%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.15	272	72
Tyler Thornburg R 2022 · 3.83 FIP	33	SU	3.83	17.5%	11.2%	1.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.56	301	72
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	71
Ryan Brasier R 2021 · 4.85 FIP	33	SU	4.85	18.0%	8.0%	4.1%	.286	3.16	23.7%	17.9%	150	-1.69	2.31	426	71
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	33	SW	4.95	18.3%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.81	11.4%	6.4%	27	-1.14	3.80	284	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	51	18.3%	11.4%	1.25	4.92
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77