Jacob Cravey
P
Frederick Keys
+0.0
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'6" / 215 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.9 · 2028
ERA4.86
FIP4.86
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.9%
BB%11.7%
K-BB%8.2%
IP89
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.9peak
2028
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 24 | 13 | 84 | 380 | 74 | 58 | 5 | 14.4% | 18.0% | 1.9% | 5.27 | 5.20 | -0.0 |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | 25 | 10 | 92 | 381 | 80 | 41 | 8 | 15.7% | 12.6% | 3.0% | 2.93 | 4.99 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Frederick Keys | 3 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 8.10 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | BAL | 16 | 16 | 89 | 377 | 75 | 44 | 11 | 19.9% | 11.7% | 2.9% | 4.86 | 4.86 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 93 | 395 | 79 | 47 | 11 | 20.0% | 12.0% | 2.7% | 4.98 | 4.68 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | BAL | 19 | 19 | 102 | 432 | 89 | 46 | 12 | 20.7% | 10.7% | 2.9% | 4.72 | 4.66 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 20 | 20 | 109 | 461 | 97 | 48 | 13 | 21.0% | 10.4% | 2.9% | 4.64 | 4.61 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 20 | 20 | 112 | 475 | 100 | 49 | 14 | 21.1% | 10.3% | 2.9% | 4.61 | 4.60 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 21 | 21 | 113 | 476 | 100 | 49 | 14 | 21.0% | 10.3% | 2.9% | 4.61 | 4.62 | +0.9 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 20 | 20 | 110 | 466 | 97 | 48 | 14 | 20.9% | 10.4% | 3.0% | 4.64 | 4.66 | +0.8 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 19 | 19 | 107 | 452 | 94 | 47 | 14 | 20.7% | 10.5% | 3.0% | 4.69 | 4.72 | +0.7 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 19 | 19 | 103 | 436 | 89 | 46 | 14 | 20.5% | 10.6% | 3.1% | 4.75 | 4.80 | +0.6 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 18 | 18 | 99 | 419 | 85 | 45 | 13 | 20.2% | 10.8% | 3.2% | 4.83 | 4.88 | +0.5 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | BAL | 17 | 17 | 95 | 400 | 80 | 44 | 13 | 19.9% | 10.9% | 3.3% | 4.92 | 4.98 | +0.3 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | BAL | 16 | 16 | 90 | 380 | 74 | 42 | 13 | 19.6% | 11.1% | 3.4% | 5.02 | 5.09 | +0.1 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | BAL | 15 | 15 | 85 | 358 | 69 | 41 | 12 | 19.2% | 11.4% | 3.5% | 5.14 | 5.21 | -0.0 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | BAL | 14 | 14 | 79 | 335 | 69 | 36 | 12 | 20.7% | 10.8% | 3.6% | 5.10 | 5.08 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 52 | 23 | 179 | 779 | 119 | 119 | 18 | 15.2% | 15.3% | 2.4% | 4.12 | 5.06 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 58 | 26 | 200 | 870 | 133 | 133 | 20 | 15.2% | 15.3% | 2.4% | 4.12 | 5.06 | +0.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jacob Cravey (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.86 | 19.9% | 11.7% | 2.9% | — | 4.62 | 20.9% | 10.4% | 324 | -0.24 | — | — | — |
| Nick Hull R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.58 | 19.0% | 12.2% | 2.8% | .296 | 5.08 | 18.4% | 6.8% | 57 | +0.50 | 4.27 | 238 | 92 |
| Matt Ruppenthal R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.51 | 19.1% | 14.3% | 2.2% | .290 | 4.25 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 143 | -0.26 | 3.75 | 283 | 91 |
| Carlos Sano R 2027 · 4.88 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.88 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.4% | .282 | 9.12 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.24 | 4.88 | 105 | 90 |
| J.P. France R 2026 · 5.33 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.33 | 17.9% | 13.9% | 3.6% | .285 | 4.26 | 26.3% | 15.2% | 225 | -1.07 | 4.07 | 530 | 90 |
| Baron Stuart R 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.27 | 14.5% | 12.2% | 3.4% | .266 | 4.02 | 16.6% | 3.9% | 169 | -1.25 | 3.56 | 269 | 89 |
| Hayden Merda R 2025 · 5.20 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.20 | 16.1% | 15.3% | 2.8% | .325 | 4.97 | 21.5% | 6.1% | 54 | -0.23 | 4.97 | 150 | 89 |
| Linder Castro R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.63 | 15.3% | 11.5% | 2.5% | .327 | 4.38 | 16.4% | 6.5% | 111 | -0.25 | 4.25 | 279 | 89 |
| Zach Fruit R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 19.3% | 14.1% | 1.9% | .258 | 5.07 | 15.4% | -0.2% | 44 | +0.79 | 4.28 | 151 | 89 |
| David Lebron R 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.30 | 18.6% | 14.2% | 1.8% | .336 | 5.70 | 26.7% | 12.0% | 62 | +1.40 | 4.30 | 144 | 88 |
| Paxton Schultz R 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.28 | 17.5% | 12.2% | 3.8% | .293 | 4.42 | 22.2% | 10.9% | 274 | -0.86 | 3.98 | 481 | 88 |
| Cobi Johnson R 2025 · 5.57 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.57 | 16.0% | 14.8% | 3.5% | .257 | 4.55 | 19.9% | 1.4% | 41 | -1.02 | 4.55 | 140 | 88 |
| Jarred Cosart R 2027 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.09 | 15.2% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .274 | 4.93 | 13.1% | -0.5% | 132 | -0.16 | 4.10 | 218 | 88 |
| Hunter Adkins R 2027 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.71 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .290 | 4.81 | 11.8% | 0.5% | 58 | +0.10 | 4.71 | 160 | 87 |
| Jason Savacool R 2025 · 4.29 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.29 | 16.6% | 11.6% | 2.1% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 199 | 87 |
| Daniel Blair R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.09 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .284 | 4.39 | 17.0% | 7.8% | 78 | +0.30 | 4.09 | 171 | 86 |
| Erich Uelmen R 2025 · 4.63 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.63 | 15.3% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .299 | 4.56 | 19.8% | 8.8% | 159 | -0.07 | 3.48 | 383 | 86 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.5% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.23 | 4.15 | 212 | 85 |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .329 | 3.95 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 118 | -0.35 | 2.58 | 199 | 85 |
| Tanner Burns R 2026 · 5.31 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.31 | 19.4% | 12.5% | 4.1% | .257 | 5.24 | 18.5% | 3.9% | 104 | -0.07 | 4.38 | 355 | 85 |
| Ian Mejia R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.18 | 18.7% | 11.6% | 2.2% | .288 | 3.95 | 17.0% | 8.9% | 127 | -0.23 | 3.95 | 373 | 85 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.6 | $3M | +$3M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.5 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $7M | +0.3 | $2M | -$6M |
| Totals | $11M | $18M | +$7M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.