Austin Amaral
P
Wilmington Blue Rocks
+0.2
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'0" / 200 lbs
A+
peak 0.4 · 2027
ERA4.44
FIP4.44
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.2%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%10.7%
IP54
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2027
STUF3535
CTRL5050
CMD4040
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 4 | 3 | 8 | 36 | 13 | 5 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.38 | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 17 | 3 | 38 | 170 | 34 | 24 | 4 | 12.1% | 14.4% | 3.7% | 4.03 | 5.96 | -0.4 |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 44 | 0 | 70 | 275 | 59 | 21 | 3 | 16.5% | 8.7% | 1.4% | 2.45 | 3.56 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 3 | 0 | 5 | 28 | 3 | 8 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.60 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | WSH | 54 | — | 54 | 229 | 42 | 23 | 6 | 18.4% | 10.3% | 2.7% | 4.70 | 4.70 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 59 | 257 | 45 | 31 | 6 | 17.5% | 12.3% | 2.4% | 4.61 | 4.30 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | WSH | 55 | — | 55 | 232 | 45 | 23 | 6 | 19.2% | 10.0% | 2.7% | 4.62 | 4.60 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 55 | — | 55 | 232 | 46 | 23 | 6 | 19.8% | 9.9% | 2.7% | 4.57 | 4.56 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 54 | — | 54 | 230 | 46 | 23 | 6 | 20.0% | 9.9% | 2.7% | 4.55 | 4.55 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 54 | — | 54 | 227 | 45 | 22 | 6 | 20.0% | 9.9% | 2.8% | 4.56 | 4.57 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 52 | — | 52 | 222 | 44 | 22 | 6 | 19.9% | 10.0% | 2.8% | 4.59 | 4.62 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 51 | — | 51 | 215 | 42 | 22 | 6 | 19.7% | 10.1% | 2.9% | 4.64 | 4.68 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 49 | — | 49 | 207 | 40 | 21 | 6 | 19.4% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 4.71 | 4.75 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 47 | — | 47 | 199 | 38 | 21 | 6 | 19.2% | 10.4% | 3.0% | 4.79 | 4.84 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 45 | — | 45 | 190 | 36 | 20 | 6 | 18.9% | 10.5% | 3.1% | 4.88 | 4.94 | +0.0 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 43 | — | 43 | 181 | 33 | 19 | 6 | 18.5% | 10.8% | 3.2% | 4.98 | 5.05 | -0.0 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 40 | — | 40 | 170 | 31 | 19 | 6 | 18.1% | 11.0% | 3.3% | 5.09 | 5.17 | -0.1 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | WSH | 38 | — | 38 | 159 | 28 | 18 | 5 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 3.5% | 5.22 | 5.30 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 68 | 6 | 121 | 509 | 82 | 61 | 10 | 16.1% | 12.1% | 2.0% | 3.06 | 4.36 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 113 | 10 | 200 | 844 | 136 | 101 | 17 | 16.1% | 12.1% | 2.0% | 3.06 | 4.36 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Austin Amaral (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.70 | 18.4% | 10.3% | 2.7% | — | 4.57 | 19.6% | 9.7% | 164 | -0.13 | — | — | — |
| Colby Morris R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.10 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .291 | 5.74 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.64 | 4.10 | 105 | 94 |
| Danny Kirwin R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.16 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 2.4% | .262 | 4.19 | 16.8% | 7.5% | 66 | +0.03 | 4.16 | 135 | 93 |
| Matt Carasiti R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.87 | 17.8% | 9.8% | 1.9% | .309 | 3.25 | 24.8% | 15.5% | 104 | -0.62 | 2.78 | 312 | 93 |
| Alex Palsha R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.86 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 2.2% | .288 | 3.83 | 15.3% | 4.4% | 77 | -0.03 | 3.40 | 134 | 93 |
| David Griffin R 2027 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.42 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 2.6% | .279 | 5.32 | 15.6% | 5.5% | 168 | +0.90 | 4.42 | 239 | 91 |
| Bryan Pope R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.96 | 19.4% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .332 | 5.16 | 12.7% | -0.3% | 22 | +1.20 | 3.96 | 148 | 91 |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2027 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.99 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .311 | 4.41 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.65 | 255 | 91 |
| Max Alba R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.50 | 20.6% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .290 | 4.91 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 162 | +0.41 | 4.50 | 217 | 91 |
| Tai Tiedemann R 2025 · 3.84 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.84 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 1.8% | .305 | 5.79 | 9.8% | -0.2% | 118 | +1.95 | 3.84 | 190 | 90 |
| Stephen Villines R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.96 | 16.8% | 8.5% | 2.2% | .280 | 3.13 | 20.6% | 14.7% | 40 | -0.83 | 2.14 | 156 | 90 |
| Brett McKinney R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.75 | 17.1% | 8.9% | 3.6% | .335 | 3.98 | 18.1% | 8.5% | 129 | -0.77 | 3.43 | 183 | 90 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.42 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .281 | 5.22 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.80 | 4.42 | 121 | 90 |
| Ricky Castro R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.02 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .287 | 4.87 | 18.2% | 10.0% | 95 | +0.85 | 4.02 | 158 | 90 |
| Alex Hermeling R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.99 | 16.5% | 8.1% | 2.3% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 127 | 89 |
| Landon Beck R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.92 | 18.6% | 8.6% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.26 | 17.4% | 8.7% | 63 | +0.34 | 3.52 | 186 | 89 |
| Matt Lollis R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.56 | 18.5% | 12.2% | 2.7% | .237 | 5.00 | 19.2% | 4.7% | 56 | +0.44 | 4.56 | 120 | 89 |
| Dylan Burns R 2027 · 4.07 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.07 | 17.1% | 10.8% | 1.9% | .300 | 4.87 | 11.6% | -2.4% | 41 | +0.80 | 4.07 | 120 | 89 |
| Sean Harney R 2027 · 3.55 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.55 | 18.2% | 9.8% | 1.4% | .285 | 4.73 | 16.5% | 5.1% | 59 | +1.18 | 3.55 | 123 | 89 |
| Rob Griswold R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.52 | 16.8% | 8.3% | 3.3% | .244 | 4.35 | 12.5% | 6.2% | 144 | -0.17 | 3.57 | 203 | 89 |
| David Goforth R 2028 · 4.06 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.06 | 17.4% | 9.8% | 2.2% | .287 | 4.58 | 14.1% | 3.6% | 184 | +0.52 | 4.06 | 256 | 88 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.