Austin Amaral
P
Fredericksburg Nationals
Age 24
RHP
6'0" / 200 lbs
A
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION33 act + 67 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134125vR 116
ERA5.11
FIP5.11
K%14.0%
BB%10.7%
K-BB%3.3%
ROS IP67
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 101 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 4 | 3 | 8 | 36 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 75% | 2.0 | 36.1% | 13.9% | 22.2% | 0.0% | 3.38 | 1.81 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 4 | 3 | 8 | 36 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 75% | 2.0 | 36.1% | 13.9% | 22.2% | 0.0% | 3.38 | 1.73 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 17 | 3 | 38 | 170 | 34 | 24 | 4 | 18% | 2.2 | 12.1% | 14.4% | -2.4% | 3.4% | 4.03 | 5.80 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 17 | 3 | 38 | 170 | 34 | 24 | 4 | 18% | 2.2 | 20.0% | 14.1% | 5.9% | 2.4% | 4.03 | 4.57 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 44 | 0 | 70 | 275 | 59 | 21 | 3 | 0% | 1.6 | 16.5% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 1.3% | 2.45 | 3.55 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 44 | 0 | 70 | 275 | 59 | 21 | 3 | 0% | 1.6 | 21.5% | 7.6% | 13.8% | 1.1% | 2.45 | 2.87 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 21 | 0 | 33 | 147 | 37 | 25 | 0 | 0% | 1.6 | 20.4% | 19.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 2.97 | 3.88 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | WSH | 64 | 0 | 67 | 284 | 40 | 30 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.0% | 10.7% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 5.11 | 5.11 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 14.0% | 10.7% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 5.11 | 5.11 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 101 | 431 | 77 | 55 | 8 | — | — | 17.8% | 12.8% | 5.0% | 1.8% | 4.40 | 4.70 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | WSH | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 46 | 30 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.9% | 10.3% | 5.6% | 2.7% | 4.96 | 4.92 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 49 | 29 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.9% | 10.2% | 6.7% | 2.7% | 4.86 | 4.83 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 64 | 0 | 67 | 283 | 49 | 29 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.2% | 10.2% | 7.0% | 2.8% | 4.84 | 4.84 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | WSH | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 19 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.9% | 10.3% | 5.6% | 2.7% | 4.96 | 4.92 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 32 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.9% | 10.2% | 6.7% | 2.7% | 4.86 | 4.83 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 38 | 22 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.2% | 10.2% | 7.0% | 2.8% | 4.84 | 4.84 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 120 | 0 | 126 | 532 | 89 | 54 | 15 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.8% | 10.2% | 6.6% | 2.7% | 4.87 | 4.47 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 141 | 86 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.8% | 10.2% | 6.6% | 2.7% | 4.87 | 4.47 | +2.2 | ||
| Career | — | 86 | 6 | 149 | 628 | 109 | 83 | 10 | 7% | 1.7 | 17.3% | 13.1% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 3.02 | 4.14 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 115 | 8 | 200 | 843 | 146 | 111 | 13 | 7% | 1.7 | 17.3% | 13.1% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 3.02 | 4.14 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Austin Amaral (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.11 | 14.0% | 10.7% | 2.7% | — | 4.86 | 16.7% | 6.4% | 203 | -0.25 | — | — | — |
| Troy Neiman R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.93 | 13.1% | 8.5% | 3.4% | .287 | 4.60 | 19.7% | 11.7% | 135 | -0.33 | 3.84 | 199 | 90 |
| Juan Paniagua R 2027 · 4.75 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.75 | 15.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .262 | 4.62 | 16.2% | 1.8% | 93 | -0.13 | 4.51 | 151 | 90 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.59 | 13.6% | 10.6% | 2.4% | .284 | 3.85 | 23.0% | 12.0% | 89 | -0.74 | 3.24 | 172 | 90 |
| Brayden Spears R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.07 | 15.7% | 10.5% | 1.8% | .337 | 4.25 | 19.9% | 9.0% | 44 | +0.18 | 4.07 | 105 | 89 |
| Darin Gillies R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.20 | 15.0% | 10.8% | 1.8% | .270 | 5.19 | 22.5% | 12.9% | 124 | +0.99 | 4.20 | 295 | 89 |
| Angel Nesbitt R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.33 | 14.0% | 9.7% | 2.1% | .335 | 3.72 | 15.4% | 8.2% | 44 | -0.61 | 3.72 | 106 | 89 |
| Raul Fernandez R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.95 | 14.2% | 9.4% | 1.6% | .285 | 4.86 | 16.1% | 5.0% | 103 | +0.91 | 3.95 | 165 | 89 |
| David Reid-Foley R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.89 | 13.8% | 8.8% | 3.4% | .308 | 6.53 | 16.2% | 7.6% | 33 | +1.64 | 4.89 | 110 | 89 |
| Alejandro Barraza R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.10 | 13.2% | 8.3% | 1.9% | .291 | 4.48 | 13.1% | 4.7% | 93 | +0.38 | 3.36 | 174 | 88 |
| Mark Peterson R 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.15 | 11.5% | 8.5% | 3.5% | .277 | 4.72 | 15.9% | 5.6% | 112 | -0.43 | 4.62 | 185 | 88 |
| Josh Uhen R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.00 | 16.1% | 9.7% | 1.9% | .303 | 3.97 | 15.6% | 1.2% | 82 | -0.03 | 3.13 | 185 | 88 |
| Ian Villers R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.12 | 15.6% | 10.4% | 1.9% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.12 | 107 | 87 |
| Parker Markel R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.69 | 13.6% | 12.3% | 2.1% | .313 | 3.16 | 15.9% | 6.2% | 61 | -1.53 | 3.16 | 266 | 87 |
| Robbie Aviles R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.77 | 11.5% | 8.7% | 2.8% | .343 | 3.62 | 12.2% | 6.5% | 58 | -1.15 | 3.62 | 172 | 87 |
| Matthew Gorst R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.72 | 16.2% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 199 | 87 |
| Reece Karalus R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.81 | 15.4% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.74 | 149 | 87 |
| Jency Solis R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.00 | 13.4% | 9.8% | 1.5% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.82 | 116 | 86 |
| Pedro Echemendia R 2027 · 4.76 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.76 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 3.5% | .286 | 4.02 | 11.0% | 5.9% | 72 | -0.74 | 4.02 | 141 | 86 |
| Dylan Simmons R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.26 | 12.8% | 11.9% | 1.4% | .306 | 6.74 | 12.6% | 0.1% | 23 | +2.48 | 3.73 | 125 | 86 |
| Dillon McNamara R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.10 | 16.4% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .245 | 4.05 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 125 | -0.05 | 1.73 | 244 | 86 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 68 | 16.0% | 10.3% | 1.05 | 4.94 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Vance Worley ('17) | 3 | 77 | 15.4% | 8.5% | 1.02 | 4.73 |
| Wily Peralta ('22) | 7 | 71 | 16.1% | 9.8% | 1.22 | 4.66 |