Austin Amaral

P Wilmington Blue Rocks

Age 25 RHP 6'0" / 200 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX3 levels	17	3	38	4.03	4.57	20.0%	14.1%	—	K 12.1% · BB 14.4% · FIP 5.94
2025	23	MIX3 levels	44	0	70	2.45	2.87	21.5%	7.6%	—	K 16.5% · BB 8.7% · FIP 3.56
2026	24	MIX3 levels	32	3	48	2.45	2.76	27.3%	15.6%	—	K 21.9% · BB 18.0% · FIP 3.53
2027PROJ	25	MLBWSH	—	—	0	5.23	5.23	17.3%	14.4%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBWSH	19	0	20	5.12	5.11	18.1%	13.9%	-0.1
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBWSH	23	0	24	5.08	5.09	18.5%	13.6%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control50Command40

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsKevin Kopps (age 25) · Juan Paniagua (age 25) · Cole Hillier (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133124vR 116

ERA5.23

FIP5.23

K%17.3%

BB%14.4%

K-BB%2.8%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	4	3	8	36	13	5	0	75%	2.0	36.1%	13.9%	22.2%	0.0%	3.38	1.81	—
2023	21	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	4	3	8	36	13	5	0	75%	2.0	36.1%	13.9%	22.2%	0.0%	3.38	1.73	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	3	38	170	34	24	4	18%	2.2	12.1%	14.4%	-2.4%	3.7%	4.03	5.94	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	3	38	170	34	24	4	18%	2.2	12.1%	14.4%	-2.4%	3.7%	4.03	5.94	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	17	3	38	170	34	24	4	18%	2.2	20.0%	14.1%	5.9%	2.4%	4.03	4.57	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	44	0	70	275	59	21	3	0%	1.6	16.5%	8.7%	7.8%	1.4%	2.45	3.56	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	44	0	70	275	59	21	3	0%	1.6	16.5%	8.7%	7.8%	1.4%	2.45	3.56	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	44	0	70	275	59	21	3	0%	1.6	21.5%	7.6%	13.8%	1.1%	2.45	2.87	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	3	48	205	56	32	0	9%	1.5	21.9%	18.0%	3.9%	0.0%	2.45	3.53	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	3	48	205	56	32	0	9%	1.5	21.9%	18.0%	3.9%	0.0%	2.45	3.53	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	32	3	48	205	56	32	0	9%	1.5	27.3%	15.6%	11.7%	0.0%	2.45	2.76	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	WSH	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.3%	14.4%	2.8%	2.5%	5.23	5.23	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	WSH	43	0	45	192	35	27	5	0%	1.1	18.1%	13.9%	4.2%	2.6%	5.12	5.11	-0.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	WSH	37	0	39	164	30	22	4	0%	1.1	18.5%	13.6%	4.9%	2.6%	5.08	5.09	-0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	WSH	19	0	20	84	15	12	2	0%	1.1	18.1%	13.9%	4.2%	2.6%	5.12	5.11	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	WSH	23	0	24	101	19	14	3	0%	1.0	18.5%	13.6%	4.9%	2.6%	5.08	5.09	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		42	0	44	186	34	25	5	0%	1.0	18.3%	13.7%	4.6%	2.6%	5.10	4.72	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	155	114	23	0%	1.1	18.3%	13.7%	4.6%	2.6%	5.10	4.72	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		97	9	163	686	124	90	10	9%	1.7	18.0%	13.2%	4.9%	1.5%	2.87	4.05	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		119	11	200	840	151	111	12	9%	1.7	18.0%	13.2%	4.9%	1.5%	2.87	4.05	-1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 23 IPFIP 2.82 → 3.75 (+0.93)K% 30.2% → 23.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.19%	—	×0.770	23.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.92%	—	×1.150	20.61%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.82 → 3.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AFredericksburg Nationals · 20 IPFIP 2.37 → 3.25 (+0.88)K% 27.2% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.16%	—	×0.740	20.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.35%	—	×1.180	14.57%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.37 → 3.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 41 IPFIP 2.31 → 2.85 (+0.54)K% 20.6% → 15.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.62%	—	×0.770	15.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.50%	—	×1.150	8.62%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.967	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.31 → 2.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAHarrisburg Senators · 15 IPFIP 4.17 → 4.76 (+0.58)K% 14.3% → 11.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.29%	—	×0.810	11.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.11%	—	×1.100	12.22%
HR / BF /BF	1.59%	÷0.963	×1.200	1.98%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 93).

Result: FIP 4.17 → 4.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AFredericksburg Nationals · 13 IPFIP 2.94 → 4.27 (+1.33)K% 32.7% → 24.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.69%	—	×0.740	24.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.85%	—	×1.180	4.54%
HR / BF /BF	3.85%	÷1.040	×1.300	4.81%

Result: FIP 2.94 → 4.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AFredericksburg Nationals · 23 IPFIP 4.95 → 5.94 (+0.98)K% 16.3% → 12.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.33%	—	×0.740	12.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.24%	—	×1.180	14.45%
HR / BF /BF	3.06%	÷1.078	×1.300	3.69%

Result: FIP 4.95 → 5.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 8 IPFIP 5.16 → 6.12 (+0.96)K% 17.1% → 13.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.07%	—	×0.770	13.15%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.07%	—	×1.150	19.63%
HR / BF /BF	2.44%	÷1.016	×1.250	3.00%

Result: FIP 5.16 → 6.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKFCL Nationals · 7 IPFIP 2.15 → 3.62 (+1.47)K% 35.5% → 24.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.48%	—	×0.680	24.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.13%	—	×1.250	20.16%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.975	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 95).

Result: FIP 2.15 → 3.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Austin Amaral (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.23	17.3%	14.4%	2.5%	—	5.10	18.3%	4.5%	84	-0.13	—	—	—
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	90
Juan Paniagua R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.57	151	88
Cole Hillier R 2024 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	16.9%	14.7%	2.0%	.297	4.45	18.1%	4.5%	111	-0.19	3.80	169	88
Jake Gilbert R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	18.2%	16.2%	1.9%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	103	87
Andrew McInvale R 2022 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	17.6%	15.9%	2.8%	.324	6.44	24.5%	10.0%	23	+1.29	4.92	103	87
Chase Plymell R 2023 · 4.23 FIP	25	SU	4.23	19.2%	13.0%	2.0%	.330	4.49	14.0%	6.3%	162	+0.26	3.81	291	87
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	87
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	87
Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.19	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.09	5.19	116	86
Billy Seidl R 2024 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	18.3%	14.2%	2.2%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	102	86
Holt Jones R 2024 · 4.36 FIP	25	SU	4.36	19.0%	15.0%	1.8%	.326	4.32	22.4%	8.3%	123	-0.04	4.21	254	86
Jeff Ames R 2016 · 5.17 FIP	25	SU	5.17	18.0%	16.1%	2.8%	.229	4.34	25.2%	11.2%	142	-0.83	3.85	272	86
Tyler Burch R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.0%	12.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	119	85
Josh Harlow R 2024 · 5.17 FIP	23	SU	5.17	18.5%	13.5%	3.5%	.266	5.73	17.1%	-4.2%	51	+0.56	5.17	107	85
Rob Huber R 2016 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	117	85
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	85
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	85
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	85
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	85
Matt Lollis R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	25	SU	4.95	19.2%	14.5%	3.0%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	120	85

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	48	17.9%	14.0%	0.99	5.15
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
John Parrish ('10)	1.4	46	17.6%	14.8%	0.88	4.51
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*