Haden Erbe — OGILVIE

Haden Erbe P West Michigan Whitecaps

Age 28 RHP 6'3" / 225 lbs A+

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 59 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 144136vR 128

ERA5.86

FIP5.86

K%17.8%

BB%17.8%

K-BB%-0.0%

ROS IP59

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL2525

CMD3535

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	0	5	18	5	2	0	0%	1.2	27.8%	11.1%	16.7%	0.0%	0.00	2.16	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	0	5	18	5	2	0	0%	1.2	27.8%	11.1%	16.7%	0.0%	0.00	2.30	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	25	1	41	178	63	16	9	4%	1.7	27.3%	10.3%	16.9%	5.9%	5.01	5.36	—
2023	24	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	25	1	41	178	63	16	9	4%	1.7	35.4%	9.0%	26.4%	5.1%	5.01	4.04	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	27	2	35	167	38	25	4	7%	1.3	18.4%	16.5%	2.0%	3.0%	6.75	5.28	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	27	2	35	167	38	25	4	7%	1.3	18.4%	16.5%	2.0%	3.0%	6.75	5.28	—
2024	25	AA RAW	Montgomery Biscuits	27	2	35	167	38	25	4	7%	1.3	22.8%	15.0%	7.8%	2.4%	6.75	4.57	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	41	178	42	27	3	0%	1.1	17.8%	17.3%	0.5%	2.6%	3.27	5.19	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	41	178	42	27	3	0%	1.1	17.8%	17.3%	0.5%	2.6%	3.27	5.19	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	41	178	42	27	3	0%	1.1	23.6%	15.2%	8.4%	1.7%	3.27	3.97	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	DET	56	0	59	249	44	44	7	0%	1.1	17.8%	17.8%	-0.0%	3.0%	5.86	5.86	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	DET	54	0	56	237	43	41	7	0%	1.0	18.1%	17.2%	0.9%	3.1%	5.79	5.84	-0.8
2029	30	MLB MLE	DET	50	0	53	223	40	38	7	0%	1.1	18.1%	16.9%	1.3%	3.3%	5.81	5.90	-0.8
2028	29	MLB CTX	DET	16	0	17	72	13	12	2	0%	1.1	18.1%	17.2%	0.9%	3.1%	5.79	5.84	-0.2
2029	30	MLB CTX	DET	26	0	27	114	21	19	4	0%	1.0	18.1%	16.9%	1.3%	3.3%	5.81	5.90	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		42	0	44	185	33	31	6	0%	1.0	18.1%	17.0%	1.2%	3.2%	5.80	5.50	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	151	142	27	0%	1.1	18.1%	17.0%	1.2%	3.2%	5.80	5.50	-2.2
Career	—	MLE		93	3	122	541	116	79	20	3%	1.3	21.4%	14.5%	6.9%	3.7%	4.71	5.17	-1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		152	5	200	884	190	129	33	3%	1.3	21.4%	14.5%	6.9%	3.7%	4.71	5.17	-3.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Haden Erbe (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.86	17.8%	17.8%	3.0%	—	5.87	18.1%	1.1%	109	+0.01	—	—	—
Kevin Gryboski R 2002 · 5.02 FIP	28	SU	5.02	13.9%	13.4%	2.5%	.263	3.83	12.0%	2.9%	126	-1.19	3.67	178	81
Trey Haley R 2016 · 4.98 FIP	26	SU	4.98	14.0%	16.5%	1.8%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.14	111	81
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	80
Jake Haberer R 2023 · 5.10 FIP	28	SU	5.10	16.4%	14.7%	2.8%	.262	5.03	16.2%	-1.4%	15	-0.07	3.46	183	79
Jordan Gore R 2022 · 5.37 FIP	27	SU	5.37	15.2%	18.5%	2.2%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	113	79
Vic Black R 2015 · 5.28 FIP	27	SU	5.28	17.5%	19.3%	2.2%	.358	6.03	9.0%	-11.6%	29	+0.75	3.16	107	78
Chris Jefferson R 2024 · 5.65 FIP	27	SU	5.65	16.4%	13.6%	4.0%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	140	78
Stevie Branche R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	27	SU	5.67	19.3%	17.6%	3.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	3.23	162	77
Charles Hall R 2023 · 5.10 FIP	28	SU	5.10	18.0%	19.1%	2.0%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.43	181	77
Mike Hepple R 2016 · 5.75 FIP	26	SU	5.75	11.1%	18.5%	2.3%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	116	76
Beck Wheeler R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	15.3%	12.2%	3.7%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	173	76
Roman Phansalkar R 2024 · 5.39 FIP	26	SU	5.39	15.8%	13.2%	3.6%	.294	4.33	18.2%	3.7%	31	-1.06	4.33	164	76
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	76
Connor Law R 2021 · 6.15 FIP	27	SU	6.15	16.2%	17.2%	4.1%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	110	76
Tyler Davis R 2024 · 6.02 FIP	25	SU	6.02	21.0%	18.8%	4.2%	.317	3.78	21.9%	10.2%	111	-2.24	3.20	137	76
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	76
Jose Veras R 2009 · 5.13 FIP	28	SU	5.13	17.8%	12.4%	3.6%	.228	3.57	26.3%	14.0%	186	-1.56	3.37	422	76
Hunter Dollander R 2023 · 6.77 FIP	26	SU	6.77	17.6%	18.3%	5.2%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	106	75
Brian Glowicki R 2022 · 5.39 FIP	27	SU	5.39	18.2%	15.9%	3.3%	.229	—	—	—	—	—	2.31	189	74
Kyle McMyne R 2017 · 4.84 FIP	27	SU	4.84	12.5%	12.8%	2.1%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	181	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	56	18.0%	17.3%	1.21	5.82
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52