Haden Erbe
P
West Michigan Whitecaps
+0.0
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'3" / 225 lbs
A+
ERA4.85
FIP4.85
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.6%
BB%12.1%
K-BB%9.5%
IP33
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
STUF4040
CTRL2525
CMD3535
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 4 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 5 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 25 | 1 | 41 | 178 | 63 | 16 | 9 | 27.3% | 10.3% | 5.9% | 5.01 | 5.33 | -0.2 |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 27 | 2 | 35 | 167 | 38 | 25 | 4 | 18.4% | 16.5% | 3.0% | 6.75 | 5.26 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 26 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | 37 | 0 | 41 | 178 | 42 | 27 | 3 | 17.8% | 17.3% | 2.6% | 3.27 | 5.24 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | DET | 33 | — | 33 | 139 | 28 | 20 | 4 | 20.4% | 14.6% | 3.0% | 5.26 | 5.26 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | DET | 32 | — | 32 | 137 | 28 | 19 | 4 | 20.7% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 5.18 | 5.19 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | DET | 32 | — | 32 | 134 | 28 | 18 | 4 | 20.8% | 13.8% | 3.1% | 5.15 | 5.17 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | DET | 31 | — | 31 | 130 | 27 | 18 | 4 | 20.7% | 13.7% | 3.1% | 5.16 | 5.19 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | DET | 30 | — | 30 | 125 | 26 | 17 | 4 | 20.5% | 13.7% | 3.2% | 5.20 | 5.24 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 93 | 3 | 122 | 541 | 116 | 79 | 20 | 21.4% | 14.5% | 3.7% | 4.71 | 5.17 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 152 | 5 | 200 | 884 | 190 | 129 | 33 | 21.4% | 14.5% | 3.7% | 4.71 | 5.17 | +0.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Haden Erbe (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.26 | 20.4% | 14.6% | 3.0% | — | 5.18 | 20.7% | 6.8% | 95 | -0.08 | — | — | — |
| Spencer Bivens R 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.1% | .265 | 3.87 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.98 | 3.45 | 315 | 91 |
| Cole McDonald R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.16 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 3.8% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.84 | 153 | 88 |
| Derek Eitel R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.34 | 18.1% | 13.9% | 1.8% | .338 | 4.29 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 113 | -0.05 | 4.00 | 138 | 87 |
| Joe Colón J R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 86 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.9% | .355 | 4.49 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | -0.08 | 3.70 | 187 | 85 |
| Mason Vinyard R 2025 · 4.41 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.41 | 21.8% | 14.5% | 2.4% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 154 | 85 |
| David Holman R 2026 · 5.48 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.48 | 15.6% | 12.7% | 3.8% | .324 | 5.48 | 9.6% | 0.5% | 107 | -0.00 | 5.37 | 129 | 84 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2029 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 84 |
| Grant Black R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.46 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +1.00 | 4.46 | 215 | 84 |
| Michael Blazek R 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.97 | 17.9% | 11.9% | 3.4% | .336 | 4.43 | 17.5% | 8.0% | 124 | -0.54 | 3.06 | 221 | 83 |
| Theo Denlinger R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.34 | 20.2% | 16.4% | 1.6% | .266 | 4.24 | 15.3% | 9.9% | 41 | -0.10 | 2.90 | 140 | 83 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2026 · 5.60 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.60 | 16.4% | 13.6% | 3.9% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 140 | 83 |
| Preston Johnson R 2024 · 5.12 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.12 | 21.1% | 17.2% | 2.9% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.94 | 104 | 82 |
| Armando Rivero R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.26 | 18.7% | 13.5% | 1.9% | .256 | 2.69 | 32.9% | 19.8% | 68 | -1.57 | 2.69 | 125 | 82 |
| Gregory Infante R 2027 · 4.55 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.55 | 16.9% | 15.7% | 1.6% | .290 | 3.80 | 21.3% | 12.7% | 181 | -0.75 | 2.97 | 230 | 82 |
| Nelson Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.97 | 15.3% | 13.7% | 2.6% | .239 | 5.77 | 17.4% | 6.7% | 96 | +0.80 | 3.40 | 258 | 81 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 17.9% | 12.5% | 3.1% | .450 | 3.38 | 18.0% | 9.1% | 85 | -1.47 | 3.01 | 115 | 81 |
| Sean Harney R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.34 | 16.9% | 14.8% | 1.4% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 123 | 81 |
| Kevin Lenik R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.90 | 21.7% | 14.9% | 3.2% | .205 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.00 | 107 | 81 |
| Paul Clemens R 2026 · 5.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.33 | 14.3% | 14.1% | 3.0% | .310 | 4.55 | 16.9% | 7.3% | 200 | -0.78 | 4.49 | 247 | 80 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.