Haden Erbe
P
West Michigan Whitecaps
Age 27
RHP
6'3" / 225 lbs
A+
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 59 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 150141vR 132
ERA5.86
FIP5.86
K%18.1%
BB%17.5%
K-BB%0.6%
ROS IP60
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 4 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 27.8% | 11.1% | 16.7% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.16 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 4 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 27.8% | 11.1% | 16.7% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.30 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 25 | 1 | 41 | 178 | 63 | 16 | 9 | 4% | 1.7 | 27.3% | 10.3% | 16.9% | 5.6% | 5.01 | 5.17 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 25 | 1 | 41 | 178 | 63 | 16 | 9 | 4% | 1.7 | 35.4% | 9.0% | 26.4% | 5.1% | 5.01 | 4.04 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 27 | 2 | 35 | 167 | 38 | 25 | 4 | 7% | 1.3 | 18.4% | 16.5% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 6.75 | 5.35 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 27 | 2 | 35 | 167 | 38 | 25 | 4 | 7% | 1.3 | 22.8% | 15.0% | 7.8% | 2.4% | 6.75 | 4.57 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 41 | 178 | 42 | 27 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.8% | 17.3% | 0.5% | 3.1% | 3.27 | 5.49 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 41 | 178 | 42 | 27 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.6% | 15.2% | 8.4% | 1.7% | 3.27 | 3.97 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | DET | 57 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 45 | 44 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.1% | 17.5% | 0.6% | 3.1% | 5.86 | 5.86 | -0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | DET | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 45 | 41 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.5% | 16.8% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 5.75 | 5.79 | -0.8 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | DET | 52 | 0 | 55 | 233 | 43 | 38 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.6% | 16.4% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 5.74 | 5.81 | -0.8 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | DET | 20 | 0 | 21 | 89 | 16 | 15 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.5% | 16.8% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 5.75 | 5.79 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | DET | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 24 | 21 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.6% | 16.4% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 5.74 | 5.81 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 49 | 0 | 51 | 217 | 40 | 36 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.5% | 16.6% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 5.74 | 5.42 | -0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 155 | 140 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.5% | 16.6% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 5.74 | 5.42 | -0.0 | ||
| Career | — | 93 | 3 | 122 | 541 | 116 | 79 | 21 | 3% | 1.3 | 21.4% | 14.5% | 6.9% | 3.8% | 4.71 | 5.23 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 152 | 5 | 200 | 884 | 190 | 129 | 34 | 3% | 1.3 | 21.4% | 14.5% | 6.9% | 3.8% | 4.71 | 5.23 | +0.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Haden Erbe (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.86 | 18.1% | 17.5% | 3.1% | — | 5.80 | 18.5% | 1.9% | 113 | -0.06 | — | — | — |
| Julian Arballo R 2026 · 5.47 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.47 | 15.1% | 13.8% | 3.5% | .335 | 4.38 | 12.6% | 0.6% | 116 | -1.09 | 4.28 | 214 | 84 |
| Mitchell Stumpo R 2026 · 6.16 FIP | 27 | SU | 6.16 | 20.6% | 21.8% | 3.7% | .368 | 4.35 | 22.6% | 15.5% | 34 | -1.81 | 3.88 | 158 | 84 |
| Trey Haley R 2025 · 5.03 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.03 | 14.0% | 16.5% | 1.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.14 | 111 | 83 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.37 | 16.4% | 13.6% | 3.5% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 140 | 82 |
| Antonio Menendez R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.85 | 19.1% | 16.2% | 2.4% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.97 | 231 | 81 |
| Zac Leigh R 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.18 | 17.1% | 19.3% | 2.0% | .226 | 4.66 | 23.1% | 7.6% | 33 | -0.52 | 3.72 | 197 | 81 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 81 |
| Stevie Branche R 2026 · 5.82 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.82 | 19.8% | 20.5% | 3.3% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 162 | 80 |
| Jordan Gore R 2026 · 5.47 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.47 | 15.2% | 18.5% | 2.4% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 80 |
| Ryan Sublette R 2025 · 4.77 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.77 | 19.0% | 15.8% | 2.3% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 203 | 79 |
| Connor Law R 2026 · 6.22 FIP | 27 | SU | 6.22 | 16.2% | 17.2% | 4.2% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 110 | 79 |
| David Goforth R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.74 | 14.5% | 12.8% | 2.3% | .333 | 4.50 | 13.9% | 4.6% | 122 | -0.24 | 3.92 | 256 | 79 |
| David Holman R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.25 | 15.6% | 12.7% | 3.4% | .324 | 5.21 | 9.6% | 0.5% | 107 | -0.04 | 5.04 | 129 | 79 |
| Matt Lollis R 2024 · 5.05 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.05 | 19.2% | 14.5% | 3.2% | .221 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 120 | 79 |
| Michael Hobbs R 2025 · 4.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.70 | 21.2% | 19.2% | 1.7% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 184 | 78 |
| Alejandro Torres R 2024 · 6.52 FIP | 25 | SU | 6.52 | 18.3% | 20.1% | 4.4% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 103 | 78 |
| Daniel Harper R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.08 | 16.6% | 18.8% | 1.8% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.27 | 128 | 78 |
| Cole McDonald R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.38 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 4.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 153 | 78 |
| Nick Ernst R 2024 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.99 | 21.9% | 14.6% | 3.4% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 117 | 78 |
| Jeff Soptic R 2024 · 5.45 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.45 | 13.6% | 15.3% | 2.8% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.27 | 124 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 57 | 18.4% | 16.9% | 1.23 | 5.78 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |