Josh Harlow
P
ACL Guardians
Age 25
RHP
6'3" / 212 lbs
ROK
2026 ROS PROJECTION4 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 161152vR 143
ERA6.36
FIP6.36
K%16.7%
BB%21.0%
K-BB%-4.3%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 74 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | ROK | ACL Guardians | 4 | 1 | 6 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 25% | 1.5 | 16.7% | 3.3% | 13.3% | 6.7% | 10.50 | 5.77 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | ROK | ACL Guardians | 4 | 1 | 6 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 25% | 1.5 | 16.7% | 3.3% | 13.3% | 6.7% | 10.50 | 6.27 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 56 | 251 | 62 | 29 | 6 | 0% | 1.5 | 18.5% | 13.5% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.36 | 5.52 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 56 | 251 | 62 | 29 | 6 | 0% | 1.5 | 24.7% | 11.6% | 13.1% | 2.4% | 3.36 | 3.83 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 36 | 0 | 51 | 248 | 55 | 46 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 17.1% | 21.3% | -4.3% | 2.5% | 4.44 | 5.71 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 36 | 0 | 51 | 248 | 55 | 46 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 22.2% | 18.5% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 4.44 | 4.94 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 4 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | — | — | — | — | 18.69 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | CLE | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 49 | 62 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.7% | 21.0% | -4.3% | 3.0% | 6.36 | 6.36 | -1.3 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 16.7% | 21.0% | -4.3% | 3.0% | 6.36 | 6.36 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 74 | 319 | 54 | 64 | 11 | — | — | 17.1% | 20.1% | -3.0% | 3.4% | 7.08 | 5.99 | -1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CLE | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 52 | 58 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.7% | 19.8% | -2.1% | 3.0% | 6.13 | 6.12 | -1.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 53 | 56 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.1% | 19.1% | -0.9% | 3.0% | 6.01 | 6.02 | -1.0 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CLE | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 22 | 25 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.7% | 19.8% | -2.1% | 3.0% | 6.13 | 6.12 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 33 | 35 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.1% | 19.1% | -0.9% | 3.0% | 6.01 | 6.02 | -0.7 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 70 | 0 | 73 | 309 | 55 | 60 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.9% | 19.4% | -1.4% | 3.0% | 6.06 | 5.68 | -0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 150 | 164 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.9% | 19.4% | -1.4% | 3.0% | 6.06 | 5.68 | -0.7 | ||
| Career | — | 81 | 1 | 117 | 552 | 99 | 90 | 20 | 1% | 1.4 | 17.9% | 16.3% | 1.6% | 3.7% | 4.76 | 5.69 | -0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 138 | 2 | 200 | 941 | 168 | 153 | 35 | 1% | 1.4 | 17.9% | 16.3% | 1.6% | 3.7% | 4.76 | 5.69 | -0.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Josh Harlow (OGILVIE) | — | — | 6.36 | 16.7% | 21.0% | 3.0% | — | 6.07 | 17.9% | -1.5% | 139 | -0.29 | — | — | — |
| Cre Finfrock R 2027 · 6.27 FIP | 26 | SU | 6.27 | 16.7% | 25.2% | 2.5% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 103 | 83 |
| Jeff Soptic R 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.45 | 13.6% | 15.3% | 2.8% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.27 | 124 | 83 |
| Yordy Cabrera R 2026 · 5.43 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.43 | 15.8% | 17.2% | 2.7% | .321 | 4.31 | 13.7% | 2.7% | 140 | -1.12 | 3.48 | 159 | 82 |
| Haden Erbe R 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.35 | 18.4% | 16.5% | 3.1% | .320 | 5.49 | 17.8% | 0.5% | 40 | +0.14 | 5.17 | 116 | 82 |
| Alejandro Torres R 2026 · 6.52 FIP | 25 | SU | 6.52 | 18.3% | 20.1% | 4.4% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 103 | 81 |
| Luke Savage R 2025 · 5.70 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.70 | 15.0% | 17.7% | 3.0% | .358 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 117 | 81 |
| Leandro Linares R 2025 · 5.59 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.59 | 16.2% | 22.0% | 2.0% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.93 | 134 | 81 |
| Tommy DeJuneas R 2026 · 5.52 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.52 | 13.7% | 17.6% | 2.5% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.90 | 178 | 80 |
| Jonathan Teaney R 2024 · 6.06 FIP | 23 | SU | 6.06 | 16.4% | 15.7% | 4.3% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.70 | 108 | 80 |
| Jake Smith R 2026 · 5.60 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.60 | 18.3% | 21.3% | 2.5% | .232 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.07 | 219 | 80 |
| Wandi Montout R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.37 | 13.4% | 18.7% | 1.9% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 103 | 80 |
| Jairo Beras R 2025 · 5.32 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.32 | 15.0% | 20.3% | 1.7% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.29 | 110 | 79 |
| Ryan Sublette R 2026 · 5.60 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.60 | 19.9% | 17.5% | 3.6% | .214 | 4.77 | 19.0% | 3.2% | 53 | -0.83 | 3.73 | 203 | 79 |
| Yunior Thibo R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.26 | 14.3% | 15.6% | 2.5% | .231 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 110 | 79 |
| Julian Arballo R 2028 · 5.47 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.47 | 15.1% | 13.8% | 3.5% | .335 | 4.38 | 12.6% | 0.6% | 116 | -1.09 | 4.28 | 214 | 79 |
| Connor Cooke R 2025 · 5.36 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.36 | 17.8% | 19.9% | 2.3% | .253 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.92 | 103 | 79 |
| J.P. Massey R 2026 · 5.64 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.64 | 15.5% | 16.8% | 3.1% | .263 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.62 | 195 | 79 |
| CJ Weins R 2026 · 5.65 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.65 | 15.5% | 14.9% | 3.6% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 113 | 79 |
| Will McAffer R 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.42 | 14.5% | 20.2% | 1.8% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 133 | 78 |
| Conner O'Neil R 2025 · 5.58 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.58 | 12.8% | 13.6% | 3.3% | .340 | 7.24 | 16.4% | 4.1% | 26 | +1.66 | 2.90 | 115 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 70 | 17.5% | 20.0% | 1.15 | 6.17 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |