Josh Harlow — OGILVIE

Josh Harlow P Lake County Captains

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 212 lbs A+

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 70 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 151143vR 134

ERA6.19

FIP6.19

K%17.1%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%-2.9%

ROS IP70

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL2020

CMD2525

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	4	1	6	30	5	1	2	25%	1.5	16.7%	3.3%	13.3%	6.7%	10.50	5.77	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	ACL Guardians	4	1	6	30	5	1	2	25%	1.5	16.7%	3.3%	13.3%	6.7%	10.50	6.27	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	56	251	62	29	6	0%	1.5	18.5%	13.5%	4.9%	3.5%	3.36	5.17	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	56	251	62	29	6	0%	1.5	18.5%	13.5%	4.9%	3.5%	3.36	5.17	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	56	251	62	29	6	0%	1.5	24.7%	11.6%	13.1%	2.4%	3.36	3.83	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	36	0	51	248	55	46	5	0%	1.4	17.1%	21.3%	-4.3%	2.5%	4.44	5.73	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	36	0	51	248	55	46	5	0%	1.4	17.1%	21.3%	-4.3%	2.5%	4.44	5.73	—
2025	24	A+ RAW	Lake County Captains	36	0	51	248	55	46	5	0%	1.4	22.2%	18.5%	3.6%	2.0%	4.44	4.94	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	0	7	40	5	6	3	0%	1.2	12.5%	15.0%	-2.5%	7.5%	15.95	8.06	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	0	7	40	5	6	3	0%	1.2	12.5%	15.0%	-2.5%	7.5%	15.95	8.06	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	0	7	40	5	6	3	0%	1.2	12.5%	15.0%	-2.5%	7.5%	15.95	9.51	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	CLE	67	0	70	296	51	59	9	0%	1.0	17.1%	20.0%	-2.9%	3.0%	6.19	6.19	-1.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	CLE	66	0	69	291	52	55	9	0%	1.0	17.7%	19.0%	-1.3%	3.0%	6.03	6.04	-1.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	CLE	64	0	67	282	51	52	9	0%	1.0	18.0%	18.4%	-0.4%	3.1%	5.96	6.00	-1.0
2030	29	MLB MLE	CLE	61	0	64	270	49	49	9	0%	1.0	18.1%	18.2%	-0.1%	3.3%	5.98	6.05	-1.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	CLE	24	0	25	106	19	20	3	0%	1.0	17.7%	19.0%	-1.3%	3.0%	6.03	6.04	-0.4
2029	28	MLB CTX	CLE	37	0	39	165	30	30	5	0%	1.1	18.0%	18.4%	-0.4%	3.1%	5.96	6.00	-0.6
2030	29	MLB CTX	CLE	43	0	45	190	34	35	6	0%	1.0	18.1%	18.2%	-0.1%	3.3%	5.98	6.05	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		104	0	110	463	83	85	15	0%	1.1	18.0%	18.5%	-0.5%	3.1%	5.98	5.65	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	151	155	27	0%	1.1	18.0%	18.5%	-0.5%	3.1%	5.98	5.65	-2.6
Career	—	MLE		83	1	120	569	99	94	20	1%	1.4	17.3%	16.5%	0.8%	3.5%	4.94	5.65	-3.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		138	2	200	946	164	156	33	1%	1.4	17.3%	16.5%	0.8%	3.5%	4.94	5.65	-3.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Josh Harlow (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.19	17.1%	20.0%	3.0%	—	6.03	17.9%	-0.6%	200	-0.16	—	—	—
Mike Hepple R 2016 · 5.75 FIP	26	SU	5.75	11.1%	18.5%	2.3%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	116	83
Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.19	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.09	5.19	116	82
Jeff Soptic R 2016 · 5.52 FIP	25	SU	5.52	13.6%	15.3%	3.0%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	5.30	124	82
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	81
Jake Gozzo R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	26	SU	5.04	16.2%	17.6%	2.0%	.227	4.32	15.6%	-1.3%	32	-0.72	4.32	162	81
Cre Finfrock R 2022 · 6.31 FIP	26	SU	6.31	16.7%	25.2%	2.6%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	103	80
Christian Ruebeck R 2024 · 6.03 FIP	23	SU	6.03	20.6%	24.4%	2.9%	.265	4.57	21.6%	1.9%	70	-1.46	4.35	104	80
Roman Phansalkar R 2024 · 5.39 FIP	26	SU	5.39	15.8%	13.2%	3.6%	.294	4.33	18.2%	3.7%	31	-1.06	4.33	164	79
Lukas Schiraldi R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	25	SU	5.00	18.7%	19.3%	1.9%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	319	78
Ryan Sublette R 2024 · 5.72 FIP	25	SU	5.72	19.9%	17.5%	3.8%	.214	4.47	18.6%	5.0%	53	-1.25	3.74	203	78
Jake Haberer R 2021 · 6.54 FIP	26	SU	6.54	13.4%	17.5%	4.3%	.287	5.15	19.6%	4.0%	106	-1.39	3.46	183	78
Hunter Dollander R 2023 · 6.77 FIP	26	SU	6.77	17.6%	18.3%	5.2%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	106	78
Jesús Reyes R 2019 · 5.71 FIP	26	SU	5.71	15.9%	15.7%	3.6%	.283	5.11	17.5%	5.6%	118	-0.60	3.85	554	78
Mitchell Osnowitz R 2017 · 5.30 FIP	26	SU	5.30	16.5%	18.7%	2.2%	.366	5.43	19.2%	7.7%	42	+0.13	4.54	132	78
Eli Villalobos R 2023 · 5.67 FIP	26	SU	5.67	17.7%	16.4%	3.6%	.316	5.72	19.5%	8.4%	36	+0.05	3.75	214	77
Yunior Thibo R 2023 · 5.32 FIP	25	SU	5.32	14.3%	15.6%	2.7%	.231	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	110	77
Kevin Gryboski R 2002 · 5.02 FIP	28	SU	5.02	13.9%	13.4%	2.5%	.263	3.83	12.0%	2.9%	126	-1.19	3.67	178	77
Wandi Montout R 2022 · 5.59 FIP	25	SU	5.59	13.4%	18.7%	2.3%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	103	77
Justin Courtney R 2022 · 5.11 FIP	26	SU	5.11	16.8%	12.8%	3.3%	.331	8.63	18.4%	7.1%	21	+3.52	4.58	108	77
Jairo Beras R 2019 · 5.47 FIP	24	SU	5.47	15.0%	20.3%	1.9%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	110	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	67	17.7%	18.9%	1.19	6.04
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Matt Perisho ('05)	1.4	69	15.2%	12.2%	1.37	6.39