Josh Harlow
P
Lake County Captains
+0.0
WAR
Age 25
RHP
6'3" / 212 lbs
A+
ERA5.03
FIP5.03
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.0%
BB%13.4%
K-BB%7.5%
IP53
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
STUF4040
CTRL2020
CMD2525
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | ROK | ACL Guardians | 4 | 1 | 6 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 2 | — | — | — | 10.50 | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 37 | 0 | 56 | 251 | 62 | 29 | 6 | 18.5% | 13.5% | 3.6% | 3.36 | 5.24 | -0.2 |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 36 | 0 | 51 | 248 | 55 | 46 | 5 | 17.1% | 21.3% | 2.5% | 4.44 | 5.73 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | CLE | 53 | — | 53 | 222 | 44 | 38 | 7 | 19.8% | 17.0% | 2.9% | 5.57 | 5.57 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CLE | 53 | — | 53 | 222 | 45 | 36 | 7 | 20.3% | 16.1% | 2.9% | 5.43 | 5.42 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 52 | — | 52 | 220 | 45 | 34 | 7 | 20.6% | 15.6% | 3.0% | 5.35 | 5.35 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 51 | — | 51 | 217 | 45 | 33 | 7 | 20.7% | 15.4% | 3.0% | 5.31 | 5.33 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | CLE | 50 | — | 50 | 212 | 44 | 32 | 6 | 20.6% | 15.3% | 3.0% | 5.32 | 5.35 | -0.2 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | CLE | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 42 | 32 | 6 | 20.4% | 15.4% | 3.1% | 5.37 | 5.41 | -0.3 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | CLE | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 40 | 31 | 6 | 20.2% | 15.5% | 3.2% | 5.44 | 5.48 | -0.3 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | CLE | 45 | — | 45 | 190 | 38 | 30 | 6 | 19.9% | 15.7% | 3.3% | 5.52 | 5.57 | -0.3 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | CLE | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 36 | 29 | 6 | 19.6% | 15.8% | 3.3% | 5.61 | 5.67 | -0.4 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | CLE | 41 | — | 41 | 173 | 33 | 28 | 6 | 19.2% | 16.1% | 3.4% | 5.71 | 5.78 | -0.4 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | CLE | 38 | — | 38 | 163 | 31 | 26 | 6 | 18.9% | 16.3% | 3.6% | 5.82 | 5.90 | -0.4 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | CLE | 36 | — | 36 | 152 | 28 | 25 | 6 | 18.4% | 16.5% | 3.7% | 5.95 | 6.03 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 77 | 1 | 113 | 529 | 94 | 88 | 17 | 17.7% | 16.6% | 3.3% | 4.22 | 5.50 | -0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 136 | 2 | 200 | 936 | 166 | 156 | 30 | 17.7% | 16.6% | 3.3% | 4.22 | 5.50 | -0.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Josh Harlow (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.57 | 19.8% | 17.0% | 2.9% | — | 5.37 | 20.5% | 4.8% | 156 | -0.20 | — | — | — |
| Kevin Kopps R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.59 | 20.2% | 15.1% | 2.3% | .278 | 4.54 | 16.5% | 2.8% | 182 | -0.05 | 3.49 | 237 | 91 |
| Jake Gilbert R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.65 | 18.2% | 16.2% | 1.9% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 103 | 89 |
| Jeff Ames R 2026 · 5.20 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.20 | 18.0% | 16.1% | 2.9% | .229 | 4.33 | 25.2% | 11.2% | 142 | -0.87 | 3.84 | 272 | 88 |
| Luis Quiñones R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.78 | 23.5% | 17.5% | 2.6% | .289 | 4.91 | 22.6% | 10.0% | 160 | +0.13 | 3.92 | 306 | 87 |
| Ryan Jensen R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.79 | 21.2% | 18.6% | 2.0% | .329 | 4.39 | 26.4% | 6.5% | 85 | -0.40 | 4.22 | 289 | 87 |
| Nolan Riggs R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.54 | 20.7% | 14.0% | 2.6% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.36 | 132 | 87 |
| Nick Ernst R 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.04 | 21.9% | 14.6% | 3.5% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 117 | 86 |
| Caleb Simpson R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.37 | 23.7% | 17.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.93 | 23.5% | 5.1% | 71 | -1.44 | 3.65 | 197 | 86 |
| Holt Jones R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.39 | 19.0% | 15.0% | 1.8% | .326 | 4.50 | 20.2% | 0.2% | 47 | +0.11 | 4.39 | 178 | 86 |
| Preston Johnson R 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.12 | 21.1% | 17.2% | 2.9% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.94 | 104 | 86 |
| Haden Erbe R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.26 | 18.4% | 16.5% | 3.0% | .320 | 5.24 | 17.8% | 0.5% | 40 | -0.02 | 5.24 | 116 | 85 |
| Matt Lollis R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.00 | 19.2% | 14.5% | 3.1% | .221 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.56 | 120 | 85 |
| Alec Barger R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.45 | 21.5% | 14.4% | 2.5% | .326 | 4.74 | 18.6% | 7.5% | 79 | +0.29 | 3.86 | 242 | 85 |
| Grant Black R 2028 · 4.46 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.46 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +1.00 | 4.46 | 215 | 84 |
| Ray Gaither R 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.97 | 18.1% | 16.4% | 2.4% | .278 | 4.34 | 18.8% | 5.8% | 90 | -0.63 | 4.05 | 164 | 84 |
| Fernando Baez R 2026 · 5.36 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.36 | 24.3% | 21.2% | 2.9% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 129 | 84 |
| Jonathan Teaney R 2024 · 5.57 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.57 | 16.4% | 15.7% | 3.4% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.76 | 108 | 84 |
| Andrew McInvale R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.16 | 17.6% | 15.9% | 2.8% | .324 | 6.29 | 24.5% | 10.0% | 23 | +1.13 | 4.92 | 103 | 83 |
| Tyler Bradt R 2025 · 4.97 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.97 | 19.0% | 18.7% | 2.0% | .241 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 135 | 83 |
| Cory Lewis R 2025 · 5.29 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.29 | 20.9% | 19.5% | 2.7% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 240 | 82 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.