Ryan Sublette

P Oklahoma City Comets

Age 28 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	24	AALAD	43	1	47	6.27	5.13	26.4%	20.3%	—	K 21.4% · BB 22.3% · FIP 5.72
2024	25	MIX2 levels	38	0	52	4.70	4.96	23.6%	16.4%	—	K 19.9% · BB 17.5% · FIP 5.72
2025	26	AAALAD	39	1	53	5.06	4.41	21.6%	15.1%	—	K 18.6% · BB 13.6% · FIP 4.47
2026	27	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	28	MLBLAD	7	0	7	5.49	5.49	18.6%	15.8%	-0.1
2028PROJ37% MLB	29	MLBLAD	17	0	18	5.45	5.50	18.8%	15.4%	-0.2
2029PROJ55% MLB	30	MLBLAD	21	0	22	5.50	5.59	18.8%	15.2%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control30Command35

CompsGregory Infante (age 28) · Spencer Bivens (age 28) · Kevin Gryboski (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137129vR 121

ERA5.49

FIP5.49

K%18.6%

BB%15.8%

K-BB%2.8%

Proj IP69

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL3030

CMD3535

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	0	11	42	14	1	1	0%	1.5	33.3%	2.4%	31.0%	2.4%	3.38	1.89	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	0	11	42	14	1	1	0%	1.5	33.3%	2.4%	31.0%	2.4%	3.38	1.98	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	41	1	54	245	87	31	4	2%	1.3	27.3%	14.6%	12.8%	2.0%	2.98	3.74	—
2022	23	A+ RAW	Great Lakes Loons	41	1	54	245	87	31	4	2%	1.3	35.5%	12.7%	22.9%	1.6%	2.98	2.57	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	43	1	47	227	60	46	6	2%	1.1	21.4%	22.3%	-0.9%	2.9%	6.27	5.72	—
2023	24	AA RAW	Tulsa Drillers	43	1	47	227	60	46	6	2%	1.1	26.4%	20.3%	6.2%	2.6%	6.27	5.13	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	52	225	53	37	7	0%	1.4	19.9%	17.5%	2.4%	3.8%	4.70	5.72	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	52	225	53	37	7	0%	1.4	19.9%	17.5%	2.4%	3.8%	4.70	5.72	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	52	225	53	37	7	0%	1.4	23.6%	16.4%	7.1%	3.1%	4.70	4.96	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Comets	39	1	53	259	56	39	5	3%	1.4	18.6%	13.6%	5.0%	2.2%	5.06	4.47	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Comets	39	1	53	259	56	39	5	3%	1.4	18.6%	13.6%	5.0%	2.2%	5.06	4.47	—
2025	26	AAA RAW	Oklahoma City Comets	39	1	53	259	56	39	5	3%	1.4	21.6%	15.1%	6.6%	1.9%	5.06	4.41	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	LAD	7	0	7	30	5	5	1	0%	1.0	18.6%	15.8%	2.8%	2.9%	5.49	5.49	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	LAD	46	0	49	205	39	32	6	0%	1.1	18.8%	15.4%	3.5%	3.0%	5.45	5.50	-0.5
2029	30	MLB MLE	LAD	37	0	39	166	31	25	5	0%	1.1	18.8%	15.2%	3.6%	3.2%	5.50	5.59	-0.5
2028	29	MLB CTX	LAD	17	0	18	76	14	12	2	0%	1.1	18.8%	15.4%	3.5%	3.0%	5.45	5.50	-0.2
2029	30	MLB CTX	LAD	21	0	22	93	17	14	3	0%	1.0	18.8%	15.2%	3.6%	3.2%	5.50	5.59	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		38	0	40	167	31	25	5	0%	1.0	18.8%	15.3%	3.5%	3.1%	5.48	5.17	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	157	126	25	0%	1.1	18.8%	15.3%	3.5%	3.1%	5.48	5.17	-1.5
Career	—	MLE		168	3	217	998	222	162	27	2%	1.3	22.3%	16.2%	6.1%	2.7%	4.64	4.75	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		155	3	200	918	205	149	25	2%	1.3	22.3%	16.2%	6.1%	2.7%	4.64	4.75	-2.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAOklahoma City Comets · 53 IPFIP 4.24 → 4.47 (+0.22)K% 21.6% → 18.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.62%	—	×0.860	18.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.06%	—	×0.900	13.55%
HR / BF /BF	1.93%	÷0.956	×1.100	2.22%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 91).

Result: FIP 4.24 → 4.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AATulsa Drillers · 48 IPFIP 4.89 → 5.72 (+0.83)K% 24.5% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.52%	—	×0.810	19.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.87%	—	×1.100	17.45%
HR / BF /BF	3.37%	÷1.063	×1.200	3.80%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 113).

Result: FIP 4.89 → 5.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AATulsa Drillers · 47 IPFIP 4.89 → 5.72 (+0.84)K% 26.4% → 21.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.43%	—	×0.810	21.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	20.26%	—	×1.100	22.29%
HR / BF /BF	2.64%	÷1.083	×1.200	2.93%

2022 A+Great Lakes Loons · 54 IPFIP 2.60 → 3.74 (+1.14)K% 35.5% → 27.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.51%	—	×0.770	27.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.65%	—	×1.150	14.55%
HR / BF /BF	1.63%	÷1.013	×1.250	2.02%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 2.60 → 3.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 10 IPFIP 2.23 → 3.46 (+1.22)K% 30.8% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.77%	—	×0.740	22.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.56%	—	×1.180	3.03%
HR / BF /BF	2.56%	÷0.965	×1.300	3.46%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 93).

Result: FIP 2.23 → 3.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Sublette (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.49	18.6%	15.8%	2.9%	—	5.54	18.8%	3.5%	88	+0.05	—	—	—
Gregory Infante R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	28	SU	4.54	16.9%	15.7%	1.6%	.290	3.78	21.3%	12.7%	181	-0.76	2.97	230	86
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	85
Kevin Gryboski R 2002 · 5.02 FIP	28	SU	5.02	13.9%	13.4%	2.5%	.263	3.83	12.0%	2.9%	126	-1.19	3.67	178	83
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	82
Jose Veras R 2009 · 5.13 FIP	28	SU	5.13	17.8%	12.4%	3.6%	.228	3.57	26.3%	14.0%	186	-1.56	3.37	422	80
Beck Wheeler R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	15.3%	12.2%	3.7%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	173	80
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	80
Chris Jefferson R 2024 · 5.65 FIP	27	SU	5.65	16.4%	13.6%	4.0%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	140	80
Jake Haberer R 2023 · 5.10 FIP	28	SU	5.10	16.4%	14.7%	2.8%	.262	5.03	16.2%	-1.4%	15	-0.07	3.46	183	80
Roman Phansalkar R 2024 · 5.39 FIP	26	SU	5.39	15.8%	13.2%	3.6%	.294	4.33	18.2%	3.7%	31	-1.06	4.33	164	79
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	79
Trey Haley R 2016 · 4.98 FIP	26	SU	4.98	14.0%	16.5%	1.8%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.14	111	79
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	79
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	78
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	78
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	78
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	77
Kyle Dowdy R 2021 · 5.16 FIP	28	SU	5.16	20.3%	14.6%	3.5%	.282	3.54	21.6%	9.6%	116	-1.62	2.98	606	76
Conor Grammes R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	18.3%	17.9%	1.3%	.303	5.60	15.3%	-11.6%	22	+1.05	4.11	171	76
Yoervis Medina R 2015 · 4.40 FIP	27	SU	4.40	18.2%	11.6%	2.5%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	186	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	52	18.7%	15.5%	1.17	5.48
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*