Ryan Sublette
P
Oklahoma City Comets
+0.0
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'2" / 190 lbs
AAA
ERA5.02
FIP5.02
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.9%
BB%13.9%
K-BB%7.0%
IP51
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL3030
CMD3535
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | 7 | 0 | 11 | 42 | 14 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | 3.38 | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | 41 | 1 | 54 | 245 | 87 | 31 | 4 | 27.3% | 14.6% | 2.0% | 2.98 | 3.74 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 43 | 1 | 47 | 227 | 60 | 46 | 6 | 21.4% | 22.3% | 2.8% | 6.27 | 5.67 | -0.4 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Oklahoma City Baseball Club | 38 | 0 | 52 | 225 | 53 | 37 | 7 | 19.9% | 17.5% | 3.8% | 4.70 | 5.70 | -0.4 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Oklahoma City Comets | 39 | 1 | 53 | 259 | 56 | 39 | 5 | 19.0% | 15.8% | 2.2% | 5.06 | 4.72 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 51 | — | 51 | 216 | 44 | 35 | 6 | 20.3% | 16.1% | 2.8% | 5.35 | 5.35 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 50 | — | 50 | 213 | 44 | 33 | 6 | 20.5% | 15.4% | 2.9% | 5.26 | 5.28 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 49 | — | 49 | 208 | 43 | 31 | 6 | 20.6% | 15.1% | 2.9% | 5.22 | 5.25 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | LAD | 48 | — | 48 | 202 | 42 | 30 | 6 | 20.6% | 14.9% | 3.0% | 5.23 | 5.26 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | LAD | 46 | — | 46 | 195 | 40 | 29 | 6 | 20.4% | 14.8% | 3.1% | 5.27 | 5.32 | -0.2 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | LAD | 44 | — | 44 | 187 | 38 | 28 | 6 | 20.1% | 15.0% | 3.1% | 5.35 | 5.40 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | LAD | 42 | — | 42 | 179 | 35 | 27 | 6 | 19.8% | 15.2% | 3.2% | 5.44 | 5.50 | -0.3 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | LAD | 40 | — | 40 | 170 | 33 | 26 | 6 | 19.5% | 15.4% | 3.3% | 5.54 | 5.61 | -0.3 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | LAD | 38 | — | 38 | 160 | 31 | 25 | 5 | 19.1% | 15.6% | 3.4% | 5.65 | 5.73 | -0.3 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | LAD | 35 | — | 35 | 149 | 28 | 24 | 5 | 18.7% | 15.8% | 3.6% | 5.78 | 5.86 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 168 | 3 | 217 | 998 | 224 | 167 | 27 | 22.4% | 16.8% | 2.7% | 4.64 | 4.80 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 155 | 3 | 200 | 918 | 206 | 154 | 25 | 22.4% | 16.8% | 2.7% | 4.64 | 4.80 | +1.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Sublette (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.35 | 20.3% | 16.1% | 2.8% | — | 5.26 | 20.6% | 5.5% | 148 | -0.09 | — | — | — |
| Grant Black R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.46 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +1.00 | 4.46 | 215 | 90 |
| Armando Rivero R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.26 | 18.7% | 13.5% | 1.9% | .256 | 2.69 | 32.9% | 19.8% | 68 | -1.57 | 2.69 | 125 | 87 |
| Nolan Riggs R 2024 · 4.54 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.54 | 20.7% | 14.0% | 2.6% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.36 | 132 | 84 |
| Gonzalez Germen R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.29 | 18.0% | 12.5% | 2.1% | .296 | 3.94 | 19.2% | 8.3% | 54 | -0.35 | 3.68 | 146 | 84 |
| Nick Ernst R 2024 · 5.04 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.04 | 21.9% | 14.6% | 3.5% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 117 | 84 |
| Jake Gilbert R 2024 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.65 | 18.2% | 16.2% | 1.9% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 103 | 83 |
| Julian Arballo R 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.14 | 15.1% | 13.8% | 2.9% | .335 | 4.48 | 12.6% | 0.6% | 116 | -0.66 | 4.42 | 214 | 83 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.1% | .265 | 3.87 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.98 | 3.45 | 315 | 83 |
| Brad Goldberg R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.38 | 18.4% | 15.4% | 1.6% | .331 | 3.14 | 30.3% | 13.3% | 36 | -1.24 | 3.14 | 197 | 82 |
| Javy Guerra R 2029 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .303 | 3.87 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.43 | 3.01 | 260 | 82 |
| Theo Denlinger R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.34 | 20.2% | 16.4% | 1.6% | .266 | 4.24 | 15.3% | 9.9% | 41 | -0.10 | 2.90 | 140 | 82 |
| Matt Lollis R 2024 · 5.00 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.00 | 19.2% | 14.5% | 3.1% | .221 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.56 | 120 | 82 |
| Cole McDonald R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.16 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 3.8% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.84 | 153 | 81 |
| Preston Johnson R 2024 · 5.12 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.12 | 21.1% | 17.2% | 2.9% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.94 | 104 | 81 |
| Derek Eitel R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.34 | 18.1% | 13.9% | 1.8% | .338 | 4.29 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 113 | -0.05 | 4.00 | 138 | 81 |
| Gregory Infante R 2027 · 4.55 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.55 | 16.9% | 15.7% | 1.6% | .290 | 3.80 | 21.3% | 12.7% | 181 | -0.75 | 2.97 | 230 | 81 |
| Beck Wheeler R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.41 | 24.9% | 14.5% | 2.9% | .360 | 5.38 | 15.3% | 3.1% | 58 | +0.97 | 3.46 | 173 | 81 |
| Luis Mateo R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.58 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.8% | .309 | 5.45 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +0.87 | 3.47 | 160 | 81 |
| Dario Beltre R 2025 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.24 | 21.4% | 17.0% | 1.4% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.71 | 110 | 80 |
| Chris Perry R 2025 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.26 | 21.3% | 19.3% | 0.9% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 113 | 80 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.