Kyle Dowdy
P
Norfolk Tides
Age 33
RHP
6'1" / 210 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 63 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130121vR 112
ERA5.04
FIP4.92
K%22.5%
BB%13.5%
K-BB%9.0%
ROS IP63
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 63 IP
Grades · Statcast · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p6095.2
Whiff%
p2421.6%
K%
p1015.5%
xwOBA vs
p100.393
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 23 | A | West Michigan Whitecaps | 23 | 16 | 108 | 447 | 86 | 24 | 6 | 70% | 4.7 | 14.2% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 3.2% | 2.84 | 4.47 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A | West Michigan Whitecaps | 23 | 16 | 108 | 447 | 86 | 24 | 6 | 70% | 4.7 | 19.2% | 5.4% | 13.9% | 1.3% | 2.84 | 2.90 | — |
| 2017 | 24 | A+ | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 25 | 22 | 134 | 556 | 121 | 28 | 8 | 88% | 5.4 | 16.8% | 5.8% | 11.0% | 0.7% | 3.83 | 2.81 | — |
| 2017 | 24 | A+ | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 25 | 22 | 134 | 556 | 121 | 28 | 8 | 88% | 5.4 | 21.8% | 5.0% | 16.7% | 1.4% | 3.83 | 2.70 | — |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 20 | 124 | 537 | 120 | 50 | 12 | 67% | 4.1 | 18.7% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 3.8% | 5.15 | 4.89 | — |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 20 | 124 | 537 | 120 | 50 | 12 | 67% | 4.1 | 22.3% | 9.3% | 13.0% | 2.2% | 5.15 | 3.63 | — |
| 2019 | 26 | MIX | 4 levels | 30 | 6 | 66 | 298 | 56 | 38 | 6 | 20% | 2.2 | 16.7% | 13.4% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 4.80 | 4.73 | -0.0 |
| 2019 | 26 | MIX | 4 levels | 30 | 6 | 66 | 298 | 56 | 38 | 6 | 20% | 2.2 | 18.8% | 12.8% | 6.0% | 2.0% | 4.80 | 4.32 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | 39 | 0 | 60 | 273 | 63 | 38 | 9 | 0% | 1.5 | 20.3% | 14.6% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 4.80 | 5.10 | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | 39 | 0 | 60 | 273 | 63 | 38 | 9 | 0% | 1.5 | 23.1% | 13.9% | 9.2% | 3.3% | 4.80 | 4.85 | — |
| 2022 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 0 | 59 | 260 | 59 | 33 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.2% | 13.5% | 7.6% | 0.9% | 3.53 | 3.52 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 0 | 59 | 260 | 59 | 33 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.7% | 12.7% | 10.0% | 1.2% | 3.53 | 3.44 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 30 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 39 | 0 | 64 | 291 | 74 | 35 | 4 | 0% | 1.6 | 22.4% | 12.6% | 9.7% | 1.5% | 4.38 | 3.65 | — |
| 2023 | 30 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 39 | 0 | 64 | 291 | 74 | 35 | 4 | 0% | 1.6 | 25.4% | 12.0% | 13.4% | 1.4% | 4.38 | 3.24 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | BAL | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 60 | 36 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 13.5% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 5.04 | 4.92 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | BAL | 55 | 0 | 57 | 242 | 52 | 33 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.7% | 13.6% | 8.1% | 3.3% | 5.09 | 5.17 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | BAL | 49 | 0 | 51 | 217 | 45 | 30 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.9% | 13.8% | 7.1% | 3.6% | 5.27 | 5.44 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | BAL | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.7% | 13.6% | 8.1% | 3.3% | 5.09 | 5.17 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | BAL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.9% | 13.8% | 7.1% | 3.6% | 5.27 | 5.44 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 18 | 1 | 32 | 152 | 23 | 22 | 5 | 6% | 1.8 | 15.3% | 14.5% | 0.8% | 3.0% | 5.59 | 5.27 | -0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 114 | 6 | 200 | 943 | 142 | 136 | 31 | 5% | 1.7 | 15.3% | 14.5% | 0.8% | 3.0% | 5.59 | 5.27 | +0.3 | ||
| Career | — | 236 | 64 | 614 | 2662 | 483 | 266 | 62 | 27% | 2.6 | 18.1% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 2.3% | 4.15 | 4.12 | +9.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 77 | 21 | 200 | 868 | 157 | 87 | 20 | 27% | 2.6 | 18.1% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 2.3% | 4.15 | 4.12 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kyle Dowdy (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.92 | 22.5% | 13.5% | 3.0% | — | 5.30 | 21.3% | 7.6% | 109 | +0.38 | — | — | — |
| Angel Sánchez R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 19.4% | 12.2% | 3.6% | .333 | 3.80 | 12.1% | 6.3% | 27 | -1.18 | 3.80 | 284 | 73 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2025 · 4.62 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.62 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.1% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 221 | 69 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2029 · 4.09 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.09 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .267 | 6.61 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.52 | 4.09 | 145 | 68 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2027 · 4.65 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.65 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .347 | 3.78 | 14.0% | 6.5% | 79 | -0.87 | 3.32 | 119 | 66 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 5.47 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.47 | 15.0% | 14.5% | 3.3% | .300 | 4.24 | 20.9% | 13.0% | 145 | -1.23 | 3.83 | 208 | 66 |
| Ivan Maldonado R 2028 · 4.91 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.91 | 12.8% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .269 | 5.68 | 6.4% | -3.3% | 104 | +0.77 | 4.91 | 172 | 65 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 65 |
| Manny Acosta R 2028 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 64 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 21.3% | 11.4% | 3.0% | .274 | 3.99 | 19.7% | 8.3% | 169 | -0.41 | 2.78 | 596 | 64 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.84 | 17.4% | 11.4% | 3.2% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 253 | 64 |
| Marco Quevedo R 2025 · 5.40 FIP | 32 | SP- | 5.40 | 13.6% | 11.4% | 3.6% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 300 | 64 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.99 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 122 | 63 |
| Ryan Cook R 2024 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 63 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2025 · 3.77 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.77 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .331 | 5.83 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.06 | 3.37 | 170 | 63 |
| Jon Edwards R 2024 · 4.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.46 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 132 | 63 |
| Jake Sanchez R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.79 | 20.7% | 12.4% | 3.4% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.86 | 361 | 62 |
| Radhames Liz R 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.31 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .343 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.77 | 110 | 62 |
| Marco Antonio Duarte R 2025 · 4.68 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.68 | 12.2% | 9.1% | 2.6% | .420 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.02 | 203 | 61 |
| Felipe Arredondo R 2025 · 4.91 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.91 | 16.2% | 7.1% | 4.2% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 337 | 61 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.03 | 18.7% | 9.5% | 4.2% | .278 | 5.32 | 16.9% | 6.9% | 252 | +0.29 | 3.69 | 521 | 61 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 57 | 21.7% | 13.6% | 1.26 | 5.13 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |