Kyle Dowdy
P
Norfolk Tides
+0.0
WAR
Age 33
RHP
6'1" / 210 lbs
AAA
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA4.34
FIP4.34
xFIP5.93
SIERA5.41
K%23.2%
BB%9.9%
K-BB%13.3%
IP57
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL2020
CMD2020
K†5555
FB Velo
p6095.2
Whiff%
p2421.6%
K%
p1015.5%
xwOBA vs
p100.393
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 23 | A | West Michigan Whitecaps | 23 | 16 | 108 | 447 | 86 | 24 | 6 | 14.2% | 6.3% | 2.3% | 2.84 | 3.95 | +1.7 |
| 2017 | 24 | A+ | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 25 | 22 | 134 | 556 | 121 | 28 | 8 | 16.8% | 5.8% | 1.0% | 3.83 | 2.98 | +3.5 |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 30 | 20 | 124 | 537 | 120 | 50 | 12 | 18.7% | 10.0% | 3.1% | 5.15 | 4.52 | +1.1 |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 30 | 6 | 66 | 298 | 56 | 38 | 6 | 16.7% | 13.4% | 2.2% | 4.80 | 4.62 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | 39 | 0 | 60 | 273 | 63 | 38 | 9 | 20.3% | 14.6% | 3.5% | 4.80 | 5.17 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 50 | 0 | 59 | 260 | 59 | 33 | 3 | 21.2% | 13.5% | 1.2% | 3.53 | 3.67 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 30 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 39 | 0 | 64 | 291 | 74 | 35 | 4 | 22.4% | 12.6% | 1.5% | 4.38 | 3.64 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | BAL | 57 | — | 57 | 242 | 55 | 33 | 7 | 22.9% | 13.5% | 3.0% | 5.03 | 4.89 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | BAL | 54 | — | 54 | 230 | 51 | 30 | 7 | 22.3% | 13.3% | 3.1% | 4.97 | 4.97 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | BAL | 51 | — | 51 | 217 | 47 | 29 | 7 | 21.6% | 13.2% | 3.2% | 5.01 | 5.07 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | BAL | 48 | — | 48 | 203 | 42 | 27 | 7 | 20.9% | 13.2% | 3.3% | 5.11 | 5.20 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 236 | 64 | 614 | 2662 | 483 | 266 | 57 | 18.1% | 10.0% | 2.1% | 4.15 | 4.00 | +9.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 77 | 21 | 200 | 868 | 157 | 87 | 19 | 18.1% | 10.0% | 2.1% | 4.15 | 4.00 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kyle Dowdy (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.89 | 22.9% | 13.5% | 3.0% | — | 5.08 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 154 | +0.19 | — | — | — |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.0% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 221 | 87 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.31 | 21.3% | 11.4% | 2.9% | .274 | 4.08 | 19.7% | 8.3% | 169 | -0.23 | 2.86 | 596 | 82 |
| Ryan Cook R 2024 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 82 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 122 | 80 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 80 |
| Manny Acosta R 2028 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 79 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.82 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.17 | 272 | 77 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2029 · 4.12 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.12 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .267 | 6.46 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.34 | 4.12 | 145 | 76 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.47 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.9% | .263 | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.49 | 3.98 | 104 | 75 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 74 |
| Jon Edwards R 2024 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.43 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.39 | 132 | 74 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 33 | SW | 5.30 | 15.0% | 14.5% | 3.0% | .300 | 4.15 | 20.9% | 13.0% | 145 | -1.15 | 3.81 | 208 | 74 |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.78 | 20.4% | 14.1% | 2.9% | .344 | 5.06 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 43 | +0.28 | 2.00 | 320 | 73 |
| Brandon McCarthy R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.88 | 22.5% | 11.5% | 4.0% | .288 | 3.97 | 19.0% | 12.4% | 171 | -0.91 | 3.15 | 248 | 73 |
| Jake Sanchez R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.91 | 20.7% | 12.4% | 3.6% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.86 | 361 | 73 |
| Angel Sánchez R 2026 · 5.11 FIP | 33 | SW | 5.11 | 19.4% | 12.2% | 3.8% | .333 | 3.84 | 12.1% | 6.3% | 27 | -1.27 | 3.75 | 284 | 73 |
| Austin Adams R 2025 · 5.85 FIP | 32 | SW | 5.85 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 5.8% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 162 | 72 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.18 | 20.0% | 9.7% | 2.8% | .302 | 2.90 | 24.2% | 15.4% | 98 | -1.28 | 2.80 | 284 | 72 |
| Anthony Swarzak R 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 33 | SW | 5.18 | 22.2% | 10.3% | 4.9% | .274 | 6.02 | 16.1% | 14.3% | 12 | +0.84 | 2.35 | 260 | 72 |
| Nate Jones R 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.08 | 23.4% | 10.9% | 2.9% | .279 | 5.52 | 21.4% | 13.8% | 38 | +1.44 | 2.61 | 157 | 71 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.