Jake Gozzo — OGILVIE

Jake Gozzo P Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 29 RHP 6'5" / 221 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.35

FIP5.35

K%18.2%

BB%14.9%

K-BB%3.3%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	36	179	38	43	4	0%	1.2	14.3%	30.2%	-15.9%	2.5%	4.95	7.10	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	0	36	179	38	43	4	0%	1.2	21.2%	24.0%	-2.8%	2.2%	4.95	5.99	—
2022	25	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	25	0	41	179	36	23	8	0%	1.6	15.5%	14.8%	0.7%	5.3%	3.95	6.56	—
2022	25	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	25	0	41	179	36	23	8	0%	1.6	20.1%	12.8%	7.3%	4.5%	3.95	5.56	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	57	248	51	39	4	0%	1.5	16.2%	17.6%	-1.4%	2.0%	3.65	5.04	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	57	248	51	39	4	0%	1.5	16.2%	17.6%	-1.4%	2.0%	3.65	5.04	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	57	248	51	39	4	0%	1.5	20.6%	15.7%	4.8%	1.6%	3.65	4.28	—
2024	27	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	24	0	32	156	30	24	1	0%	1.3	15.6%	16.9%	-1.3%	0.7%	8.53	4.32	—
2024	27	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	24	0	32	156	30	24	1	0%	1.3	15.6%	16.9%	-1.3%	0.7%	8.53	4.32	—
2024	27	AA RAW	Chattanooga Lookouts	24	0	32	156	30	24	1	0%	1.3	19.2%	15.4%	3.8%	0.6%	8.53	3.89	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	CIN	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	18.2%	14.9%	3.3%	2.8%	5.35	5.35	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	CIN	20	0	21	88	16	13	3	0%	1.0	18.4%	14.6%	3.7%	3.0%	5.35	5.42	-0.2
2027	30	MLB CTX	CIN	7	0	7	30	5	4	1	0%	1.0	18.4%	14.6%	3.7%	3.0%	5.35	5.42	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	7	27	5	4	1	0%	1.1	18.4%	14.6%	3.7%	3.0%	5.35	5.04	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	154	123	31	0%	1.1	18.4%	14.6%	3.7%	3.0%	5.35	5.04	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		119	0	166	762	118	151	20	0%	1.4	15.5%	19.8%	-4.3%	2.6%	4.94	5.73	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		144	0	200	920	142	182	24	0%	1.4	15.5%	19.8%	-4.3%	2.6%	4.94	5.73	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jake Gozzo (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.35	18.2%	14.9%	2.8%	—	5.42	18.4%	3.7%	21	+0.07	—	—	—
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	88
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.95	260	83
Tanner Scheppers R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SU	4.37	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.86	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.49	4.37	101	80
Jose De La Torre R 2015 · 4.40 FIP	29	SU	4.40	14.5%	13.1%	1.6%	.256	2.98	21.6%	14.2%	65	-1.42	2.64	130	80
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	79
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	79
Gregory Infante R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	19.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.333	3.43	22.5%	15.8%	120	-1.04	2.97	230	79
Theo Denlinger R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	27	SU	4.21	19.8%	15.1%	1.6%	.266	4.23	15.3%	9.9%	41	+0.02	2.92	140	78
Dan Winkler R 2019 · 4.99 FIP	29	SU	4.99	20.6%	15.2%	3.1%	.237	4.44	23.0%	8.4%	104	-0.55	2.40	231	78
Beck Wheeler R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	15.3%	12.2%	3.7%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	173	77
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	77
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	77
Jake Haberer R 2023 · 5.10 FIP	28	SU	5.10	16.4%	14.7%	2.8%	.262	5.03	16.2%	-1.4%	15	-0.07	3.46	183	76
Ronald Peña R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	29	SU	4.49	16.5%	10.4%	2.7%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	3.72	187	75
Kevin Lenik R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	27	SU	4.91	21.7%	14.9%	3.2%	.205	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	107	73
André Rienzo R 2017 · 4.40 FIP	29	SW	4.40	18.9%	15.6%	1.7%	.301	5.33	17.9%	6.1%	29	+0.93	3.53	200	73
Irving Jimenez R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	27	SU	4.51	18.9%	12.4%	2.6%	.417	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	104	73
Mitchell Stumpo R 2023 · 6.35 FIP	27	SU	6.35	20.6%	20.8%	4.3%	.368	4.77	22.6%	15.5%	34	-1.58	3.97	158	73
Eder Llamas R 2015 · 4.84 FIP	29	SU	4.84	12.3%	8.8%	3.0%	.261	3.64	11.3%	4.6%	120	-1.20	3.23	171	72
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	72