Jake Gozzo
P
Chattanooga Lookouts
Age 29
RHP
6'5" / 221 lbs
AA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 22 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124115vR 106
ERA4.63
FIP4.63
K%21.4%
BB%11.4%
K-BB%10.0%
ROS IP22
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 22 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 0 | 36 | 179 | 38 | 43 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 14.3% | 30.2% | -15.9% | 2.6% | 4.95 | 7.15 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 0 | 36 | 179 | 38 | 43 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.2% | 24.0% | -2.8% | 2.2% | 4.95 | 5.99 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 25 | 0 | 41 | 179 | 36 | 23 | 8 | 0% | 1.6 | 15.5% | 14.8% | 0.7% | 5.0% | 3.95 | 6.41 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 25 | 0 | 41 | 179 | 36 | 23 | 8 | 0% | 1.6 | 20.1% | 12.8% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 3.95 | 5.56 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 57 | 248 | 51 | 39 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 16.2% | 17.6% | -1.4% | 2.0% | 3.65 | 5.04 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 57 | 248 | 51 | 39 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 20.6% | 15.7% | 4.8% | 1.6% | 3.65 | 4.28 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 24 | 0 | 32 | 156 | 30 | 24 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 15.6% | 16.9% | -1.3% | 0.7% | 8.53 | 4.29 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 24 | 0 | 32 | 156 | 30 | 24 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 19.2% | 15.4% | 3.8% | 0.6% | 8.53 | 3.89 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 21 | 0 | 22 | 93 | 20 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 11.4% | 10.0% | 2.8% | 4.63 | 4.63 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 20 | 0 | 21 | 88 | 19 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 4.70 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 7 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 4.70 | 4.77 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 6 | 0 | 7 | 27 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 4.70 | 4.39 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 184 | 92 | 31 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 4.70 | 4.39 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 119 | 0 | 166 | 762 | 118 | 151 | 19 | 0% | 1.4 | 15.5% | 19.8% | -4.3% | 2.6% | 4.94 | 5.70 | -0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 144 | 0 | 200 | 920 | 142 | 182 | 24 | 0% | 1.4 | 15.5% | 19.8% | -4.3% | 2.6% | 4.94 | 5.70 | -0.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jake Gozzo (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.63 | 21.4% | 11.4% | 2.8% | — | 4.77 | 21.3% | 9.8% | 21 | +0.14 | — | — | — |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2027 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 88 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 84 |
| Javy Guerra R 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 83 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 83 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.18 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.40 | 2.76 | 228 | 83 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 4.69 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.69 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .297 | 4.04 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.65 | 4.04 | 102 | 82 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.39 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.65 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.26 | 4.39 | 101 | 82 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2029 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.25 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.19 | 2.56 | 147 | 82 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2025 · 4.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.96 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .275 | 7.33 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +2.37 | 3.78 | 180 | 81 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.19 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 3.2% | .311 | 2.38 | 20.9% | 12.6% | 25 | -1.81 | 2.38 | 160 | 81 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.76 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 2.99 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.77 | 2.22 | 187 | 81 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2025 · 3.49 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.49 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.55 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.06 | 2.51 | 137 | 80 |
| Joe Colón J R 2024 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.04 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 113 | 80 |
| Gregory Infante R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.39 | 19.0% | 12.3% | 2.4% | .333 | 3.24 | 22.5% | 15.8% | 120 | -1.15 | 2.96 | 230 | 79 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2028 · 3.69 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.69 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .244 | 4.74 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +1.05 | 3.69 | 521 | 79 |
| Luis García R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.80 | 20.6% | 10.9% | 1.9% | .281 | 3.81 | 21.6% | 12.6% | 179 | +0.01 | 2.40 | 617 | 79 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.56 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.7% | .283 | 4.38 | 18.7% | 6.1% | 24 | +0.82 | 3.56 | 104 | 79 |
| Justin Miller R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 20.8% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .353 | 4.75 | 22.5% | 16.5% | 127 | +1.17 | 2.54 | 279 | 78 |
| Wily Peralta R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.18 | 22.7% | 13.7% | 2.3% | .310 | 4.93 | 15.3% | 5.5% | 154 | +0.75 | 4.02 | 748 | 78 |
| David Hernandez R 2027 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 78 |