Jake Gozzo
P Chattanooga Lookouts| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | G | GS | IP | ERA | FIP | K% | BB% | WAR | MLE rates | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 25 | A+CIN | 25 | 0 | 41 | 3.95 | 5.56 | 20.1% | 12.8% | — | K 15.5% · BB 14.8% · FIP 6.56 | |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX2 levels | 39 | 0 | 57 | 3.65 | 4.28 | 20.6% | 15.7% | — | K 16.2% · BB 17.6% · FIP 5.04 | |
| 2024 | 27 | AACIN | 24 | 0 | 32 | 8.53 | 3.89 | 19.2% | 15.4% | — | K 15.6% · BB 16.9% · FIP 4.32 | |
| 2025 | 28 | No MLB games played | ||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | No MLB games played | ||||||||||
| 2027PROJ | 30 | MLBCIN | — | — | 0 | 4.83 | 4.83 | 20.9% | 11.9% | — | ||
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 31 | MLBCIN | 5 | 0 | 5 | 4.90 | 4.98 | 20.8% | 12.0% | -0.0 | ||
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year) | |||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 24 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 31 | 0 | 36 | 179 | 38 | 43 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 14.3% | 30.2% | -15.9% | 2.5% | 4.95 | 7.10 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX RAW | 2 levels | 31 | 0 | 36 | 179 | 38 | 43 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.2% | 24.0% | -2.8% | 2.2% | 4.95 | 5.99 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | A+ MLE | Dayton Dragons | 25 | 0 | 41 | 179 | 36 | 23 | 8 | 0% | 1.6 | 15.5% | 14.8% | 0.7% | 5.3% | 3.95 | 6.56 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | A+ RAW | Dayton Dragons | 25 | 0 | 41 | 179 | 36 | 23 | 8 | 0% | 1.6 | 20.1% | 12.8% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 3.95 | 5.56 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 57 | 248 | 51 | 39 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 16.2% | 17.6% | -1.4% | 2.0% | 3.65 | 5.04 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX RAW | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 57 | 248 | 51 | 39 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 20.6% | 15.7% | 4.8% | 1.6% | 3.65 | 4.28 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | 24 | 0 | 32 | 156 | 30 | 24 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 15.6% | 16.9% | -1.3% | 0.7% | 8.53 | 4.32 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | 24 | 0 | 32 | 156 | 30 | 24 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 15.6% | 16.9% | -1.3% | 0.7% | 8.53 | 4.32 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA RAW | Chattanooga Lookouts | 24 | 0 | 32 | 156 | 30 | 24 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 19.2% | 15.4% | 3.8% | 0.6% | 8.53 | 3.89 | — |
| ▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 20.9% | 11.9% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.83 | 4.83 | — |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 31 | MLB MLE | CIN | 16 | 0 | 17 | 70 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 4.90 | 4.98 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB CTX | CIN | 5 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 4.90 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | RAW | 5 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 4.90 | 4.60 | -0.0 | |
| / 200 IP | — | RAW | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 192 | 115 | 38 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 4.90 | 4.60 | -0.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | 119 | 0 | 166 | 762 | 118 | 151 | 20 | 0% | 1.4 | 15.5% | 19.8% | -4.3% | 2.6% | 4.94 | 5.73 | -0.1 | |
| / 200 IP | — | MLE | 144 | 0 | 200 | 920 | 142 | 182 | 24 | 0% | 1.4 | 15.5% | 19.8% | -4.3% | 2.6% | 4.94 | 5.73 | -1.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 32 IPFIP 3.78 → 4.32 (+0.54)K% 19.2% → 15.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 19.23% | — | ×0.810 | 15.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 15.38% | — | ×1.100 | 16.92% |
| HR / BF /BF | 0.64% | ÷1.089 | ×1.200 | 0.71% |
Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 118).
Result: FIP 3.78 → 4.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 26 IPFIP 5.53 → 6.29 (+0.76)K% 16.8% → 13.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 16.80% | — | ×0.810 | 13.61% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 20.00% | — | ×1.100 | 22.00% |
| HR / BF /BF | 2.40% | ÷1.017 | ×1.200 | 2.83% |
Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).
Result: FIP 5.53 → 6.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Dayton Dragons · 31 IPFIP 2.93 → 3.76 (+0.83)K% 24.4% → 18.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 24.39% | — | ×0.770 | 18.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 11.38% | — | ×1.150 | 13.09% |
| HR / BF /BF | 0.81% | ÷0.951 | ×1.250 | 1.07% |
Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).
Result: FIP 2.93 → 3.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Dayton Dragons · 41 IPFIP 5.48 → 6.56 (+1.08)K% 20.1% → 15.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 20.11% | — | ×0.770 | 15.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 12.85% | — | ×1.150 | 14.78% |
| HR / BF /BF | 4.47% | ÷1.058 | ×1.250 | 5.28% |
Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 112).
Result: FIP 5.48 → 6.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ADaytona Tortugas · 32 IPFIP 5.74 → 7.10 (+1.36)K% 19.4% → 14.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 19.38% | — | ×0.740 | 14.34% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 25.62% | — | ×1.180 | 30.24% |
| HR / BF /BF | 1.88% | ÷0.969 | ×1.300 | 2.52% |
Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).
Result: FIP 5.74 → 7.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).