Justin Courtney
P
Binghamton Rumble Ponies
Age 30
RHP
6'5" / 225 lbs
AA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 12 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120110vR 101
ERA4.43
FIP4.43
K%23.2%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%13.9%
ROS IP12
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 12 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 0 | 43 | 188 | 47 | 10 | 6 | 0% | 1.8 | 19.0% | 5.9% | 13.1% | 4.2% | 5.23 | 4.53 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 0 | 43 | 188 | 47 | 10 | 6 | 0% | 1.8 | 25.0% | 5.3% | 19.7% | 3.2% | 5.23 | 3.43 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 54 | 240 | 55 | 26 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 16.8% | 12.8% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.14 | 5.26 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 54 | 240 | 55 | 26 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 22.9% | 10.8% | 12.1% | 2.1% | 4.14 | 3.71 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 0 | 24 | 99 | 23 | 10 | 8 | 0% | 1.5 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 7.2% | 11.2% | 5.18 | 9.13 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 0 | 24 | 99 | 23 | 10 | 8 | 0% | 1.5 | 23.2% | 10.1% | 13.1% | 8.1% | 5.18 | 6.72 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 12 | 0 | 12 | 52 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 13.9% | 3.2% | 4.43 | 4.43 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 9.6% | 13.2% | 3.4% | 4.54 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 6 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.8% | 9.6% | 13.2% | 3.4% | 4.54 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 6 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.8% | 9.6% | 13.2% | 3.4% | 4.54 | 4.24 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 192 | 96 | 32 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 9.6% | 13.2% | 3.4% | 4.54 | 4.24 | +2.7 | ||
| Career | — | 79 | 0 | 122 | 527 | 94 | 53 | 28 | 0% | 1.5 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 4.73 | 5.73 | -0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 130 | 0 | 200 | 866 | 155 | 87 | 45 | 0% | 1.5 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 4.73 | 5.73 | -0.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Justin Courtney (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.43 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 3.2% | — | 4.62 | 22.8% | 13.2% | 20 | +0.19 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 88 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 85 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 82 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 80 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2028 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 80 |
| Adam Warren R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.76 | 23.3% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .288 | 4.75 | 20.6% | 9.9% | 86 | +0.99 | 2.71 | 392 | 79 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 79 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.81 | 18.6% | 7.6% | 4.2% | .373 | 3.58 | 18.5% | 9.3% | 93 | -1.23 | 3.37 | 170 | 77 |
| Adrian Ramirez R 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.86 | 21.7% | 6.3% | 3.3% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 137 | 77 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2028 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.25 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.19 | 2.56 | 147 | 76 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.18 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .349 | 3.44 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 65 | -0.74 | 3.07 | 227 | 76 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.39 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.9% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 160 | 76 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 76 |
| Drew Storen R 2025 · 3.86 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.86 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .289 | 4.49 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 10 | +0.63 | 2.36 | 172 | 76 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.16 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.4% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 253 | 76 |
| Chris Martin R 2025 · 3.28 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.28 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 1.5% | .319 | 3.06 | 20.9% | 19.2% | 42 | -0.22 | 1.76 | 416 | 75 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2027 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.03 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | .253 | 3.84 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.19 | 3.73 | 132 | 75 |
| Joakim Soria R 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.58 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 3.0% | .258 | 2.93 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.65 | 2.01 | 380 | 75 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2027 · 3.41 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.41 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.66 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.25 | 3.41 | 212 | 75 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2029 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 75 |