Chase Plymell

P Charlotte Knights

Age 29 RHP 6'4" / 205 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX2 levels	38	0	76	3.42	4.06	16.8%	7.9%	—	K 14.0% · BB 7.6% · FIP 4.53
2025	27	MIX2 levels	33	2	56	3.20	3.79	14.8%	8.0%	—	K 12.7% · BB 7.6% · FIP 3.81
2026	28	AAACWS	18	1	33	6.55	5.37	18.7%	9.0%	—	K 16.1% · BB 8.1% · FIP 5.50
2027PROJ	29	MLBCWS	6	0	6	5.26	5.26	13.1%	9.1%	-0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	30	MLBCWS	14	0	15	5.28	5.35	13.8%	9.4%	-0.1
2029PROJ55% MLB	31	MLBCWS	17	0	18	5.36	5.47	14.1%	9.8%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control55Command35

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 0.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsWillie Eyre (age 29) · Eder Llamas (age 29) · Angel Castro (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.26

FIP5.26

K%13.1%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%4.0%

Proj IP58

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5555

CMD3535

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	2	0	2	7	2	1	0	0%	1.0	28.6%	14.3%	14.3%	0.0%	0.00	2.50	—
2021	23	ROK RAW	ACL White Sox	2	0	2	7	2	1	0	0%	1.0	28.6%	14.3%	14.3%	0.0%	0.00	2.60	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	62	285	72	25	5	0%	1.8	19.0%	10.2%	8.8%	2.2%	5.81	3.97	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	62	285	72	25	5	0%	1.8	25.3%	8.8%	16.5%	1.8%	5.81	3.04	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	1	68	297	73	34	5	2%	1.7	19.2%	13.0%	6.3%	2.0%	4.66	4.23	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	1	68	297	73	34	5	2%	1.7	24.6%	11.4%	13.1%	1.7%	4.66	3.41	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	76	316	53	25	8	0%	2.0	14.0%	7.6%	6.4%	3.0%	3.42	4.53	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	76	316	53	25	8	0%	2.0	14.0%	7.6%	6.4%	3.0%	3.42	4.53	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	76	316	53	25	8	0%	2.0	16.8%	7.9%	8.9%	2.5%	3.42	4.06	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	2	56	237	35	19	4	6%	1.7	12.7%	7.6%	5.0%	1.5%	3.20	3.81	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	2	56	237	35	19	4	6%	1.7	12.7%	7.6%	5.0%	1.5%	3.20	3.81	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	2	56	237	35	19	4	6%	1.7	14.8%	8.0%	6.8%	1.7%	3.20	3.79	—
2026	28	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	18	1	33	155	29	14	7	6%	1.8	16.1%	8.1%	8.0%	5.0%	6.55	5.50	—
2026	28	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	18	1	33	155	29	14	7	6%	1.8	16.1%	8.1%	8.0%	5.0%	6.55	5.50	—
2026	28	AAA RAW	Charlotte Knights	18	1	33	155	29	14	7	6%	1.8	18.7%	9.0%	9.7%	4.5%	6.55	5.37	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	CWS	6	0	6	25	3	2	1	0%	1.0	13.1%	9.1%	4.0%	3.2%	5.26	5.26	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	CWS	39	0	41	172	24	16	6	0%	1.0	13.8%	9.4%	4.4%	3.3%	5.28	5.35	-0.4
2029	31	MLB MLE	CWS	31	0	33	138	20	14	5	0%	1.1	14.1%	9.8%	4.4%	3.5%	5.36	5.47	-0.3
2028	30	MLB CTX	CWS	14	0	15	63	9	6	2	0%	1.1	13.8%	9.4%	4.4%	3.3%	5.28	5.35	-0.1
2029	31	MLB CTX	CWS	17	0	18	76	11	7	3	0%	1.1	14.1%	9.8%	4.4%	3.5%	5.36	5.47	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		32	0	33	140	20	13	5	0%	1.0	14.0%	9.6%	4.4%	3.5%	5.32	5.03	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	121	79	30	0%	1.1	14.0%	9.6%	4.4%	3.5%	5.32	5.03	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		167	4	297	1297	212	123	33	2%	1.8	16.4%	9.5%	6.9%	2.5%	4.48	4.31	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		112	3	200	872	143	83	22	2%	1.8	16.4%	9.5%	6.9%	2.5%	4.48	4.31	-2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAACharlotte Knights · 33 IPFIP 5.14 → 5.50 (+0.35)K% 18.7% → 16.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.71%	—	×0.860	16.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.03%	—	×0.900	8.13%
HR / BF /BF	4.52%	÷1.000	×1.100	4.97%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.14 → 5.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAACharlotte Knights · 52 IPFIP 3.91 → 3.81 (−0.10)K% 14.7% → 12.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.73%	—	×0.860	12.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.48%	—	×0.900	7.63%
HR / BF /BF	1.79%	÷1.320	×1.100	1.49%

Result: FIP 3.91 → 3.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAACharlotte Knights · 38 IPFIP 4.51 → 4.67 (+0.16)K% 15.7% → 13.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.72%	—	×0.860	13.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.69%	—	×0.900	9.62%
HR / BF /BF	2.52%	÷1.016	×1.100	2.72%

Result: FIP 4.51 → 4.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AABirmingham Barons · 38 IPFIP 3.64 → 4.38 (+0.75)K% 17.8% → 14.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.83%	—	×0.810	14.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.10%	—	×1.100	5.61%
HR / BF /BF	2.55%	÷0.935	×1.200	3.27%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 87).

Result: FIP 3.64 → 4.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 50 IPFIP 2.97 → 3.78 (+0.80)K% 24.3% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.26%	—	×0.770	18.68%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.89%	—	×1.150	12.52%
HR / BF /BF	0.99%	÷1.017	×1.250	1.22%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 2.97 → 3.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AABirmingham Barons · 18 IPFIP 4.30 → 5.19 (+0.89)K% 25.3% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.26%	—	×0.810	20.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.63%	—	×1.100	13.89%
HR / BF /BF	3.16%	÷1.013	×1.200	3.74%

Result: FIP 4.30 → 5.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AKannapolis Cannon Ballers · 34 IPFIP 1.96 → 2.81 (+0.84)K% 29.7% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.66%	—	×0.740	21.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.83%	—	×1.180	5.70%
HR / BF /BF	1.38%	÷1.172	×1.300	1.53%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 134).

Result: FIP 1.96 → 2.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 28 IPFIP 4.16 → 5.17 (+1.01)K% 20.7% → 16.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.71%	—	×0.770	15.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.86%	—	×1.150	14.79%
HR / BF /BF	2.14%	÷0.955	×1.250	2.80%

Result: FIP 4.16 → 5.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chase Plymell (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.26	13.1%	9.1%	3.2%	—	5.40	13.9%	4.4%	74	+0.14	—	—	—
Willie Eyre R 2007 · 4.53 FIP	29	SU	4.53	13.7%	9.1%	2.6%	.306	2.87	11.1%	5.5%	18	-1.66	2.87	164	88
Eder Llamas R 2015 · 4.84 FIP	29	SU	4.84	12.3%	8.8%	3.0%	.261	3.64	11.3%	4.6%	120	-1.20	3.23	171	87
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	86
Jose Casilla R 2016 · 4.65 FIP	27	SU	4.65	13.0%	8.0%	3.0%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.06	104	84
Ryan Doolittle R 2016 · 4.38 FIP	28	SU	4.38	13.9%	7.1%	2.8%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	101	82
Grant Black R 2023 · 5.49 FIP	29	SU	5.49	15.9%	11.3%	4.2%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	215	82
Tony Fiore R 2000 · 5.61 FIP	28	SU	5.61	10.8%	9.5%	4.0%	.321	4.76	14.3%	3.5%	127	-0.85	4.60	142	82
Esteban Haro R 2015 · 4.14 FIP	29	SU	4.14	11.6%	8.4%	1.7%	.302	4.25	15.6%	7.8%	78	+0.11	3.76	164	82
Santiago Casilla R 2009 · 4.44 FIP	29	SU	4.44	15.0%	9.4%	2.6%	.324	3.29	22.1%	13.0%	170	-1.15	2.76	647	81
Luis Angel Daniel R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	30	SU	4.47	9.9%	6.9%	2.4%	.292	4.36	11.6%	2.4%	107	-0.11	4.16	156	81
Brian Bass R 2009 · 4.70 FIP	27	SU	4.70	13.5%	9.8%	2.8%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	4.70	176	81
Beck Wheeler R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	15.3%	12.2%	3.7%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	173	81
Jason Boyd R 2002 · 5.81 FIP	29	SU	5.81	13.7%	10.7%	4.6%	.290	4.74	15.0%	3.7%	65	-1.07	3.68	128	80
David Goforth R 2018 · 4.07 FIP	29	SU	4.07	14.1%	8.6%	2.0%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	256	80
Jesus Adrian Castillo R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	31	SU	4.37	9.8%	9.5%	1.6%	.307	3.52	13.2%	7.9%	80	-0.85	2.23	173	80
Benjamin Sandoval R 2016 · 5.13 FIP	29	SU	5.13	6.7%	11.3%	2.1%	.292	5.51	9.0%	-4.4%	49	+0.38	4.66	146	79
Carlos Fisher R 2011 · 4.33 FIP	28	SU	4.33	15.5%	9.1%	2.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	245	79
Lance Carter R 2004 · 4.95 FIP	29	SU	4.95	10.7%	6.2%	3.6%	.243	5.11	9.1%	1.9%	69	+0.16	3.63	248	79
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	79
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	44	13.6%	9.4%	1.28	5.29
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Rodney Myers ('04)	1.2	60	15.0%	10.3%	1.05	5.07
Mike Lincoln ('10)	1.9	54	14.1%	8.9%	1.32	5.33
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Greg Booker ('83-'90, -1 WAR*)	1.3	53	13.3%*	10.2%*	1.07*	4.51*