Cole Hillier

P Eugene Emeralds

Age 26 RHP 6'1" / 210 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	32	0	60	3.58	3.58	23.0%	12.6%	—	K 16.9% · BB 14.8% · FIP 4.64
2025	24	MIX2 levels	35	0	68	2.37	2.97	23.5%	11.7%	—	K 18.1% · BB 14.5% · FIP 3.80
2026	25	A+SF	36	0	53	5.98	4.18	23.4%	10.9%	—	K 18.0% · BB 12.5% · FIP 5.17
2027PROJ	26	MLBSF	—	—	0	5.59	5.59	17.2%	15.3%	—
2028PROJ37% MLB	27	MLBSF	17	0	18	5.49	5.50	17.8%	14.8%	-0.2
2029PROJ59% MLB	28	MLBSF	24	0	25	5.46	5.50	18.1%	14.5%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control30Command35

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsJuan Paniagua (age 26) · Roman Phansalkar (age 26) · Julian Arballo (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139131vR 123

ERA5.59

FIP5.59

K%17.2%

BB%15.3%

K-BB%1.9%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL3030

CMD3535

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Orange	2	0	4	14	4	1	0	0%	1.8	28.6%	7.1%	21.4%	0.0%	2.45	1.59	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	ACL Giants Orange	2	0	4	14	4	1	0	0%	1.8	28.6%	7.1%	21.4%	0.0%	2.45	1.74	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	60	278	64	35	4	0%	1.9	16.9%	14.8%	2.1%	2.0%	3.58	4.64	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	60	278	64	35	4	0%	1.9	16.9%	14.8%	2.1%	2.0%	3.58	4.64	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	0	60	278	64	35	4	0%	1.9	23.0%	12.6%	10.4%	1.4%	3.58	3.58	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	68	298	70	35	2	0%	2.0	18.1%	14.5%	3.7%	0.7%	2.37	3.80	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	68	298	70	35	2	0%	2.0	18.1%	14.5%	3.7%	0.7%	2.37	3.80	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	68	298	70	35	2	0%	2.0	23.5%	11.7%	11.7%	0.7%	2.37	2.97	—
2026	25	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	36	0	53	239	56	26	7	0%	1.5	18.0%	12.5%	5.5%	3.7%	5.98	5.17	—
2026	25	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	36	0	53	239	56	26	7	0%	1.5	18.0%	12.5%	5.5%	3.7%	5.98	5.17	—
2026	25	A+ RAW	Eugene Emeralds	36	0	53	239	56	26	7	0%	1.5	23.4%	10.9%	12.6%	2.9%	5.98	4.18	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	SF	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.2%	15.3%	1.9%	3.0%	5.59	5.59	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	SF	47	0	50	209	37	31	6	0%	1.1	17.8%	14.8%	3.0%	3.0%	5.49	5.50	-0.5
2029	28	MLB MLE	SF	40	0	42	176	32	26	5	0%	1.0	18.1%	14.5%	3.6%	3.1%	5.46	5.50	-0.4
2030	29	MLB MLE	SF	36	0	37	158	29	23	5	0%	1.0	18.1%	14.5%	3.7%	3.3%	5.50	5.57	-0.4
2028	27	MLB CTX	SF	17	0	18	76	14	11	2	0%	1.1	17.8%	14.8%	3.0%	3.0%	5.49	5.50	-0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	SF	24	0	25	106	19	15	3	0%	1.0	18.1%	14.5%	3.6%	3.1%	5.46	5.50	-0.3
2030	29	MLB CTX	SF	25	0	26	110	20	16	4	0%	1.0	18.1%	14.5%	3.7%	3.3%	5.50	5.57	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		66	0	69	292	53	42	9	0%	1.0	18.0%	14.6%	3.5%	3.1%	5.48	5.14	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	153	122	26	0%	1.1	18.0%	14.6%	3.5%	3.1%	5.48	5.14	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		105	0	185	829	148	115	16	0%	1.8	17.9%	13.9%	4.0%	2.0%	3.79	4.44	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		114	0	200	896	160	124	18	0%	1.8	17.9%	13.9%	4.0%	2.0%	3.79	4.44	-2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Eugene Emeralds · 53 IPFIP 4.11 → 5.17 (+1.06)K% 23.4% → 18.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.43%	—	×0.770	18.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.88%	—	×1.150	12.51%
HR / BF /BF	2.93%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.66%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.11 → 5.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ASan Jose Giants · 58 IPFIP 3.00 → 3.80 (+0.80)K% 24.5% → 18.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.52%	—	×0.740	18.15%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.26%	—	×1.180	14.47%
HR / BF /BF	0.77%	÷1.358	×1.300	0.73%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 172).

Result: FIP 3.00 → 3.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 10 IPFIP 2.76 → 3.12 (+0.36)K% 16.2% → 13.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.22%	—	×0.810	13.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.11%	—	×1.100	8.92%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.183	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 137).

Result: FIP 2.76 → 3.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ASan Jose Giants · 58 IPFIP 3.57 → 4.64 (+1.07)K% 22.8% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.79%	—	×0.740	16.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.50%	—	×1.180	14.75%
HR / BF /BF	1.47%	÷0.959	×1.300	1.99%

Result: FIP 3.57 → 4.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cole Hillier (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.59	17.2%	15.3%	3.0%	—	5.52	18.0%	3.4%	129	-0.07	—	—	—
Juan Paniagua R 2016 · 4.57 FIP	26	SU	4.57	17.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.246	4.75	12.9%	-1.0%	29	+0.18	4.57	151	88
Roman Phansalkar R 2024 · 5.39 FIP	26	SU	5.39	15.8%	13.2%	3.6%	.294	4.33	18.2%	3.7%	31	-1.06	4.33	164	87
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	87
Jake Gilbert R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	18.2%	16.2%	1.9%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	103	86
Justin Courtney R 2022 · 5.11 FIP	26	SU	5.11	16.8%	12.8%	3.3%	.331	8.63	18.4%	7.1%	21	+3.52	4.58	108	85
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	84
Jeff Soptic R 2016 · 5.52 FIP	25	SU	5.52	13.6%	15.3%	3.0%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	5.30	124	83
Dusty Isaacs R 2018 · 5.26 FIP	26	SU	5.26	19.3%	14.1%	3.7%	.287	3.16	26.8%	20.6%	26	-2.10	3.16	253	83
Trey Haley R 2016 · 4.98 FIP	26	SU	4.98	14.0%	16.5%	1.8%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.14	111	83
Matt Lollis R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	25	SU	4.95	19.2%	14.5%	3.0%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	120	83
Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.19	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.09	5.19	116	83
Josh Harlow R 2024 · 5.17 FIP	23	SU	5.17	18.5%	13.5%	3.5%	.266	5.73	17.1%	-4.2%	51	+0.56	5.17	107	83
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	83
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	82
Rob Huber R 2016 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	117	82
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	82
Daniel Webb R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	15.7%	13.4%	2.0%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	126	81
Billy Seidl R 2024 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	18.3%	14.2%	2.2%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	102	81
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	81
Gregory Infante R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	28	SU	4.54	16.9%	15.7%	1.6%	.290	3.78	21.3%	12.7%	181	-0.76	2.97	230	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	50	17.7%	14.8%	1.18	5.52
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*