Cole Hillier — OGILVIE

Cole Hillier P Eugene Emeralds

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 210 lbs A+

2026 ROS PROJECTION53 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139131vR 123

ERA5.57

FIP5.57

K%17.1%

BB%16.4%

K-BB%0.7%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL3030

CMD3535

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Orange	2	0	4	14	4	1	0	0%	1.8	28.6%	7.1%	21.4%	0.0%	2.45	1.59	—
2023	22	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Orange	2	0	4	14	4	1	0	0%	1.8	28.6%	7.1%	21.4%	0.0%	2.45	1.59	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	ACL Giants Orange	2	0	4	14	4	1	0	0%	1.8	28.6%	7.1%	21.4%	0.0%	2.45	1.74	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	60	278	64	35	4	0%	1.9	16.9%	14.8%	2.1%	2.0%	3.58	4.64	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	60	278	64	35	4	0%	1.9	16.9%	14.8%	2.1%	2.0%	3.58	4.64	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	0	60	278	64	35	4	0%	1.9	23.0%	12.6%	10.4%	1.4%	3.58	3.58	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	68	298	70	35	2	0%	2.0	18.1%	14.5%	3.7%	0.7%	2.37	3.80	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	68	298	70	35	2	0%	2.0	18.1%	14.5%	3.7%	0.7%	2.37	3.80	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	68	298	70	35	2	0%	2.0	23.5%	11.7%	11.7%	0.7%	2.37	2.97	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	36	0	53	239	56	26	7	0%	1.5	18.0%	12.5%	5.5%	3.7%	5.98	5.17	—
YTD	25	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	36	0	53	239	56	26	7	0%	1.5	18.0%	12.5%	5.5%	3.7%	5.98	5.17	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	A+ RAW	SF	36	0	53	239	56	26	7	0%	1.5	23.4%	10.9%	12.6%	2.9%	5.98	4.11	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	SF	6	0	6	25	4	4	1	0%	1.0	17.1%	16.4%	0.7%	2.7%	5.57	5.57	-0.1
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	SF	—	—	59	264	60	30	8	—	—	22.8%	11.4%	11.4%	2.9%	5.94	5.21	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	SF	67	0	70	296	53	46	8	0%	1.0	18.0%	15.6%	2.3%	2.7%	5.43	5.42	-0.7
2028	27	MLB MLE	SF	66	0	69	291	53	44	8	0%	1.0	18.4%	15.2%	3.1%	2.8%	5.37	5.38	-0.6
2029	28	MLB MLE	SF	64	0	67	282	52	43	8	0%	1.0	18.5%	15.1%	3.4%	2.9%	5.37	5.41	-0.6
2030	29	MLB MLE	SF	61	0	64	270	50	41	8	0%	1.0	18.4%	15.1%	3.2%	3.0%	5.44	5.51	-0.7
2027	26	MLB CTX	SF	29	0	30	127	23	20	3	0%	1.0	18.0%	15.6%	2.3%	2.7%	5.43	5.42	-0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	SF	41	0	43	182	33	28	5	0%	1.0	18.4%	15.2%	3.1%	2.8%	5.37	5.38	-0.4
2029	28	MLB CTX	SF	48	0	50	211	39	32	6	0%	1.0	18.5%	15.1%	3.4%	2.9%	5.37	5.41	-0.5
2030	29	MLB CTX	SF	50	0	52	220	40	33	7	0%	1.0	18.4%	15.1%	3.2%	3.0%	5.44	5.51	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		168	0	176	743	136	113	21	0%	1.0	18.3%	15.2%	3.1%	2.9%	5.40	5.05	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	155	128	24	0%	1.1	18.3%	15.2%	3.1%	2.9%	5.40	5.05	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		105	0	185	829	148	115	16	0%	1.8	17.9%	13.9%	4.0%	2.0%	3.79	4.44	-2.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		114	0	200	896	160	124	18	0%	1.8	17.9%	13.9%	4.0%	2.0%	3.79	4.44	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cole Hillier (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.57	17.1%	16.4%	2.7%	—	5.40	18.3%	3.0%	206	-0.17	—	—	—
Jake Gilbert R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	18.2%	16.2%	1.9%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	103	89
Jeff Ames R 2016 · 5.17 FIP	25	SU	5.17	18.0%	16.1%	2.8%	.229	4.34	25.2%	11.2%	142	-0.83	3.85	272	87
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.42	16.0%	3.7%	182	-0.14	3.46	237	85
Jacob Webb R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	24	SU	4.55	19.8%	15.3%	2.1%	.283	4.56	18.8%	8.2%	155	+0.01	3.33	268	85
Jeff Soptic R 2016 · 5.52 FIP	25	SU	5.52	13.6%	15.3%	3.0%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	5.30	124	85
Rob Huber R 2016 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	117	85
Andrew McInvale R 2022 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	17.6%	15.9%	2.8%	.324	6.44	24.5%	10.0%	23	+1.29	4.92	103	85
José A. Váldez R 2015 · 4.55 FIP	25	SU	4.55	15.3%	15.3%	1.5%	.279	4.32	22.3%	9.9%	167	-0.23	4.02	328	85
Ray Gaither R 2023 · 4.89 FIP	25	SU	4.89	18.1%	16.4%	2.3%	.278	4.19	17.7%	6.6%	90	-0.70	3.90	164	84
Ocean Gabonia R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SU	5.04	15.4%	14.6%	2.5%	.283	3.29	19.1%	10.9%	91	-1.75	2.79	144	84
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	84
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	84
Danny Reynolds R 2016 · 4.72 FIP	25	SU	4.72	16.6%	16.8%	1.6%	.263	3.71	16.0%	4.3%	88	-1.01	3.29	165	83
Jonathan Teaney R 2019 · 5.65 FIP	23	SU	5.65	16.4%	15.7%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	108	83
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	83
Juan Paniagua R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.57	151	83
Matt Lollis R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	25	SU	4.95	19.2%	14.5%	3.0%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	120	83
Aroni Nina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	25	SU	4.90	16.8%	20.5%	1.1%	.312	3.04	18.8%	8.7%	64	-1.86	2.68	115	83
Ryan Jensen R 2023 · 4.64 FIP	25	SU	4.64	20.6%	17.0%	2.0%	.329	4.20	23.6%	6.8%	107	-0.44	4.00	311	82
Noah Murdock R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	19.8%	17.1%	1.8%	.314	3.18	22.5%	9.0%	144	-1.38	2.60	306	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	68	18.0%	15.5%	1.08	5.44
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77