Kevin Kopps

P El Paso Chihuahuas

Age 30 RHP 6'0" / 200 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	26	MIX2 levels	46	0	70	3.58	2.84	24.7%	10.7%	—	K 20.2% · BB 11.0% · FIP 3.45
2024	27	AAASD	40	0	51	5.86	5.33	13.5%	15.5%	—	K 11.6% · BB 14.0% · FIP 5.03
2025	28	MIX2 levels	45	1	61	4.84	4.65	18.6%	12.9%	—	K 15.7% · BB 12.5% · FIP 4.97
2026	29	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	30	MLBSD	4	0	4	5.25	5.25	16.4%	12.1%	-0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	31	MLBSD	10	0	10	5.28	5.36	16.7%	12.2%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsWirfin Obispo (age 30) · Esteban Haro (age 30) · Jim Miller (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.25

FIP5.25

K%16.4%

BB%12.1%

K-BB%4.3%

Proj IP40

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 40 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	0	15	55	22	6	0	0%	1.0	40.0%	10.9%	29.1%	0.0%	0.61	1.10	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	14	0	15	55	22	6	0	0%	1.0	40.0%	10.9%	29.1%	0.0%	0.61	1.33	—
2022	25	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	42	3	54	241	60	33	4	7%	1.3	20.2%	15.1%	5.1%	2.3%	4.14	4.56	—
2022	25	AA RAW	San Antonio Missions	42	3	54	241	60	33	4	7%	1.3	24.9%	13.7%	11.2%	1.7%	4.14	3.67	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	70	328	81	35	3	0%	1.5	20.2%	11.0%	9.2%	1.2%	3.58	3.45	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	70	328	81	35	3	0%	1.5	24.7%	10.7%	14.0%	0.9%	3.58	2.84	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	40	0	51	245	33	38	5	0%	1.3	11.6%	14.0%	-2.4%	2.1%	5.86	5.03	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	40	0	51	245	33	38	5	0%	1.3	11.6%	14.0%	-2.4%	2.1%	5.86	5.03	—
2024	27	AAA RAW	El Paso Chihuahuas	40	0	51	245	33	38	5	0%	1.3	13.5%	15.5%	-2.0%	2.0%	5.86	5.33	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	1	61	279	52	36	7	2%	1.4	15.7%	12.5%	3.1%	2.9%	4.84	4.97	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	1	61	279	52	36	7	2%	1.4	15.7%	12.5%	3.1%	2.9%	4.84	4.97	—
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	1	61	279	52	36	7	2%	1.4	18.6%	12.9%	5.7%	2.5%	4.84	4.65	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	SD	4	0	4	17	3	2	0	0%	1.0	16.4%	12.1%	4.3%	2.9%	5.25	5.25	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	SD	26	0	28	117	20	14	4	0%	1.1	16.7%	12.2%	4.5%	3.2%	5.28	5.36	-0.3
2028	31	MLB CTX	SD	10	0	10	42	7	5	1	0%	1.0	16.7%	12.2%	4.5%	3.2%	5.28	5.36	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	10	43	7	5	1	0%	1.0	16.7%	12.2%	4.5%	3.2%	5.28	4.98	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	137	98	20	0%	1.1	16.7%	12.2%	4.5%	3.2%	5.28	4.98	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		187	4	251	1148	209	148	23	2%	1.3	18.2%	12.9%	5.3%	2.0%	4.30	4.28	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		149	3	200	914	166	117	18	2%	1.3	18.2%	12.9%	5.3%	2.0%	4.30	4.28	-1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 36 IPFIP 4.87 → 5.12 (+0.25)K% 19.2% → 16.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.16%	—	×0.860	16.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.77%	—	×0.900	12.40%
HR / BF /BF	2.99%	÷0.981	×1.100	3.36%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 96).

Result: FIP 4.87 → 5.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AASan Antonio Missions · 26 IPFIP 4.04 → 4.73 (+0.69)K% 17.9% → 14.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.86%	—	×0.810	14.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.61%	—	×1.100	12.77%
HR / BF /BF	1.79%	÷0.950	×1.200	2.26%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 4.04 → 4.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 51 IPFIP 5.05 → 5.03 (−0.01)K% 13.5% → 11.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.47%	—	×0.860	11.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.51%	—	×0.900	13.96%
HR / BF /BF	2.04%	÷1.078	×1.100	2.08%

Result: FIP 5.05 → 5.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AASan Antonio Missions · 55 IPFIP 2.43 → 3.19 (+0.76)K% 27.1% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.13%	—	×0.810	21.97%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.31%	—	×1.100	10.24%
HR / BF /BF	0.81%	÷0.820	×1.200	1.19%

Result: FIP 2.43 → 3.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 16 IPFIP 4.19 → 4.24 (+0.05)K% 17.3% → 14.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.28%	—	×0.860	14.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.81%	—	×0.900	13.33%
HR / BF /BF	1.23%	÷1.052	×1.100	1.29%

Result: FIP 4.19 → 4.24, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AASan Antonio Missions · 54 IPFIP 3.64 → 4.56 (+0.92)K% 24.9% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.90%	—	×0.810	20.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.69%	—	×1.100	15.06%
HR / BF /BF	1.66%	÷0.870	×1.200	2.29%

Result: FIP 3.64 → 4.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 8 IPFIP 1.94 → 2.87 (+0.93)K% 34.5% → 26.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.48%	—	×0.770	26.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.79%	—	×1.150	15.86%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.057	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 111).

Result: FIP 1.94 → 2.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kevin Kopps (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.25	16.4%	12.1%	2.9%	—	5.36	16.7%	4.5%	28	+0.11	—	—	—
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	93
Esteban Haro R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	30	SU	4.55	17.1%	10.2%	2.9%	.338	3.83	11.6%	6.3%	75	-0.72	3.76	164	86
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	84
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	82
Beck Wheeler R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	15.3%	12.2%	3.7%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	173	80
Ivan Zavala R 2017 · 5.02 FIP	30	SU	5.02	12.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.286	5.15	12.7%	5.3%	61	+0.13	4.27	209	79
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	78
Willie Eyre R 2007 · 4.53 FIP	29	SU	4.53	13.7%	9.1%	2.6%	.306	2.87	11.1%	5.5%	18	-1.66	2.87	164	78
Carlos Fisher R 2011 · 4.33 FIP	28	SU	4.33	15.5%	9.1%	2.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	245	78
Brandon Puffer R 2004 · 5.23 FIP	28	SU	5.23	13.5%	11.2%	3.4%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	108	77
Jesus Adrian Castillo R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	31	SU	4.37	9.8%	9.5%	1.6%	.307	3.52	13.2%	7.9%	80	-0.85	2.23	173	77
Ronald Peña R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	29	SU	4.49	16.5%	10.4%	2.7%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	3.72	187	77
Grant Black R 2023 · 5.49 FIP	29	SU	5.49	15.9%	11.3%	4.2%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	215	77
Mike Broadway R 2017 · 4.73 FIP	30	SU	4.73	18.3%	10.2%	3.4%	.245	4.65	23.0%	12.4%	49	-0.08	1.74	195	76
Jeff Gray R 2012 · 5.43 FIP	30	SU	5.43	11.0%	9.3%	3.8%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	127	76
Ryan Doolittle R 2016 · 4.38 FIP	28	SU	4.38	13.9%	7.1%	2.8%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	101	75
Erik Davis R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	30	SU	4.25	22.2%	11.1%	3.0%	.349	3.52	17.4%	8.5%	65	-0.73	3.05	227	75
Fernando Villalobos R 2015 · 5.33 FIP	30	SU	5.33	8.3%	13.1%	2.3%	.365	4.36	11.4%	3.1%	109	-0.97	4.00	152	75
Luis Angel Daniel R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	30	SU	4.47	9.9%	6.9%	2.4%	.292	4.36	11.6%	2.4%	107	-0.11	4.16	156	75
Dalier Hinojosa R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	30	SU	4.30	18.7%	12.6%	2.2%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	104	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	34	16.5%	12.1%	1.18	5.26
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*