Hayden Snelsire
P
Montgomery Biscuits
+0.4
WAR
Age 25
RHP
6'3" / 205 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.5 · 2026
ERA4.39
FIP4.39
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.2%
BB%8.5%
K-BB%12.7%
IP67
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2026
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | ROK | FCL Rays | 3 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 23 | 2 | 45 | 196 | 50 | 24 | 4 | 18.9% | 13.8% | 3.4% | 2.18 | 5.15 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 22 | 10 | 79 | 305 | 72 | 17 | 6 | 18.2% | 6.4% | 2.7% | 2.97 | 3.84 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 3 | 0 | 6 | 22 | 9 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | TB | 12 | 12 | 67 | 283 | 60 | 24 | 8 | 21.2% | 8.5% | 3.0% | 4.39 | 4.39 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | TB | — | — | 73 | 305 | 69 | 25 | 8 | 22.7% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 4.03 | 4.03 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | TB | 12 | 12 | 67 | 283 | 61 | 24 | 8 | 21.7% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.36 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | TB | 12 | 12 | 66 | 281 | 61 | 24 | 8 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.36 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | TB | 12 | 12 | 66 | 277 | 60 | 24 | 8 | 21.9% | 8.7% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.39 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | TB | 12 | 12 | 64 | 270 | 59 | 24 | 8 | 21.8% | 8.8% | 3.0% | 4.41 | 4.43 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | TB | 11 | 11 | 62 | 262 | 57 | 23 | 8 | 21.6% | 8.9% | 3.1% | 4.46 | 4.49 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | TB | 60 | — | 60 | 253 | 54 | 23 | 8 | 21.3% | 9.0% | 3.2% | 4.52 | 4.57 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | TB | 58 | — | 58 | 243 | 51 | 22 | 8 | 21.0% | 9.2% | 3.3% | 4.60 | 4.65 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | TB | 55 | — | 55 | 232 | 48 | 22 | 8 | 20.7% | 9.3% | 3.4% | 4.69 | 4.75 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | TB | 52 | — | 52 | 220 | 45 | 21 | 8 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 3.5% | 4.79 | 4.86 | +0.1 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | TB | 49 | — | 49 | 208 | 42 | 20 | 7 | 20.0% | 9.8% | 3.6% | 4.91 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | TB | 46 | — | 46 | 194 | 38 | 19 | 7 | 19.6% | 10.0% | 3.7% | 5.03 | 5.12 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 51 | 12 | 133 | 533 | 103 | 48 | 15 | 19.4% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 2.50 | 4.13 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 77 | 18 | 200 | 802 | 155 | 72 | 23 | 19.4% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 2.50 | 4.13 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Hayden Snelsire (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.39 | 21.2% | 8.5% | 3.0% | — | 4.37 | 21.8% | 13.1% | 199 | -0.02 | — | — | — |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.99 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .311 | 4.41 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.65 | 255 | 93 |
| Austin Ross R 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.42 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .281 | 5.22 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.80 | 4.42 | 121 | 92 |
| Nelson Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.40 | 19.6% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .293 | 5.06 | 17.7% | 7.8% | 115 | +1.66 | 3.40 | 258 | 91 |
| J.R. Graham R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.37 | 18.7% | 7.4% | 3.5% | .317 | 3.65 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 61 | -0.72 | 3.31 | 125 | 91 |
| Barrett Loseke R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.41 | 21.7% | 10.1% | 3.4% | .311 | 5.44 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 22 | +1.03 | 4.41 | 152 | 91 |
| Derek Gordon R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.59 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 146 | 90 |
| Matt Carasiti R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.68 | 22.2% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .313 | 3.35 | 23.4% | 12.8% | 93 | -0.33 | 2.78 | 312 | 89 |
| Randall Delgado R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.73 | 23.7% | 10.1% | 2.5% | .284 | 3.72 | 20.3% | 12.4% | 167 | -0.01 | 3.05 | 290 | 88 |
| Matt Pierpont R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.50 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 1.9% | .295 | 3.39 | 21.6% | 13.6% | 156 | -0.11 | 2.79 | 280 | 88 |
| Hunter Dollander R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.90 | 19.2% | 5.7% | 3.1% | .311 | 6.77 | 17.6% | -0.7% | 51 | +2.87 | 3.90 | 106 | 88 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.08 | 18.9% | 10.2% | 2.4% | .271 | 3.84 | 21.6% | 13.4% | 73 | -0.24 | 3.84 | 206 | 88 |
| Nick Merkel R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.99 | 22.8% | 7.1% | 3.5% | .284 | 3.18 | 21.4% | 10.4% | 103 | -0.81 | 3.13 | 179 | 88 |
| Easton Sikorski R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.32 | 21.1% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 159 | 88 |
| Taylor Grover R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.69 | 17.5% | 8.4% | 1.8% | .317 | 4.94 | 19.4% | 9.1% | 89 | +1.25 | 3.69 | 239 | 87 |
| Mark McLaughlin R 2025 · 3.95 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.95 | 20.6% | 8.3% | 2.8% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 174 | 87 |
| John Brebbia R 2027 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.15 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 3.3% | .346 | 3.23 | 27.6% | 21.4% | 215 | -0.92 | 2.96 | 523 | 87 |
| Andrew Bellatti R 2024 · 4.32 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.32 | 19.3% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 278 | 87 |
| Danny Kirwin R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.19 | 16.8% | 9.3% | 2.4% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 135 | 87 |
| Hunter McMahon R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.24 | 16.6% | 8.3% | 2.7% | .301 | 5.92 | 5.7% | 1.8% | 14 | +1.68 | 2.23 | 174 | 87 |
| Jordan Milbrath R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.05 | 19.9% | 10.4% | 2.4% | .272 | 3.60 | 19.6% | 9.7% | 129 | -0.45 | 3.20 | 386 | 87 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.3 | $1M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.7M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.3M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$0.1M |
| Totals | $4M | $8M | +$4M | ||