Hayden Snelsire — OGILVIE

Hayden Snelsire P Montgomery Biscuits

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION63 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.63

FIP4.63

K%17.5%

BB%8.0%

K-BB%9.5%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	3	0	3	10	2	0	0	0%	1.0	20.0%	0.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.41	—
2023	22	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	3	0	3	10	2	0	0	0%	1.0	20.0%	0.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.41	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	3	0	3	10	2	0	0	0%	1.0	20.0%	0.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.77	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	2	45	196	50	24	4	9%	2.0	18.9%	13.8%	5.1%	3.4%	2.18	5.10	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	2	45	196	50	24	4	9%	2.0	18.9%	13.8%	5.1%	3.4%	2.18	5.10	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	2	45	196	50	24	4	9%	2.0	25.5%	12.2%	13.3%	2.0%	2.18	3.63	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	22	10	79	305	72	17	6	45%	3.6	18.2%	6.4%	11.8%	2.6%	2.97	3.83	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	22	10	79	305	72	17	6	45%	3.6	18.2%	6.4%	11.8%	2.6%	2.97	3.83	—
2025	24	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	22	10	79	305	72	17	6	45%	3.6	23.6%	5.6%	18.0%	2.0%	2.97	2.91	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	39	1	63	261	67	16	12	3%	1.6	22.6%	6.3%	16.3%	5.3%	4.16	4.91	—
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	39	1	63	261	67	16	12	3%	1.6	22.6%	6.3%	16.3%	5.3%	4.16	4.91	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AA RAW	TB	35	0	56	226	63	13	10	0%	1.6	27.9%	5.8%	22.1%	4.4%	3.21	3.90	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	TB	4	1	7	35	4	3	2	25%	1.7	11.4%	8.6%	2.9%	5.7%	12.15	6.36	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	TB	6	0	6	27	5	2	1	0%	1.1	17.5%	8.0%	9.5%	2.9%	4.63	4.63	-0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	TB	—	—	69	288	72	18	13	—	—	24.9%	6.3%	18.6%	4.4%	4.21	4.88	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	TB	67	0	71	299	55	24	9	0%	1.1	18.3%	8.1%	10.2%	2.9%	4.59	4.58	-0.0
2028	27	MLB MLE	TB	66	0	70	294	55	24	9	0%	1.1	18.6%	8.2%	10.4%	3.0%	4.59	4.60	-0.0
2029	28	MLB MLE	TB	64	0	68	285	53	24	9	0%	1.1	18.7%	8.4%	10.3%	3.1%	4.63	4.67	-0.1
2030	29	MLB MLE	TB	62	0	65	273	51	24	9	0%	1.0	18.6%	8.7%	9.9%	3.2%	4.72	4.79	-0.2
2027	26	MLB CTX	TB	30	0	31	131	24	11	4	0%	1.0	18.3%	8.1%	10.2%	2.9%	4.59	4.58	-0.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	TB	42	0	44	186	35	15	6	0%	1.0	18.6%	8.2%	10.4%	3.0%	4.59	4.60	-0.0
2029	28	MLB CTX	TB	49	0	51	215	40	18	7	0%	1.0	18.7%	8.4%	10.3%	3.1%	4.63	4.67	-0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	TB	50	0	53	224	42	19	7	0%	1.1	18.6%	8.7%	9.9%	3.2%	4.72	4.79	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		171	0	179	756	141	64	23	0%	1.0	18.6%	8.4%	10.2%	3.1%	4.64	4.29	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	157	71	26	0%	1.1	18.6%	8.4%	10.2%	3.1%	4.64	4.29	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		87	13	190	772	153	63	28	15%	2.2	19.9%	8.2%	11.7%	3.7%	3.13	4.48	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		92	14	200	814	162	67	30	15%	2.2	19.9%	8.2%	11.7%	3.7%	3.13	4.48	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hayden Snelsire (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.63	17.5%	8.0%	2.9%	—	4.62	18.5%	10.3%	208	-0.01	—	—	—
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	88
Pedro Echemendia R 2016 · 4.79 FIP	25	SU	4.79	15.0%	8.0%	3.5%	.286	4.31	11.0%	5.9%	72	-0.48	4.31	141	88
Stephen Kohlscheen R 2015 · 3.83 FIP	26	SU	3.83	15.6%	8.1%	1.9%	.311	3.98	22.8%	15.0%	90	+0.15	2.52	167	87
Jaycob Deese R 2023 · 4.68 FIP	23	SU	4.68	17.4%	6.8%	4.0%	.309	4.83	13.6%	4.4%	140	+0.15	3.28	208	87
Hunter McMahon R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	25	SU	4.25	16.4%	8.0%	2.8%	.301	5.84	5.7%	1.8%	14	+1.59	2.23	174	87
J.R. Graham R 2015 · 4.39 FIP	25	SU	4.39	18.7%	7.4%	3.5%	.317	3.63	20.4%	10.1%	61	-0.76	3.31	125	87
Taylor Grover R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	25	SU	3.68	17.5%	8.4%	1.8%	.317	4.92	19.4%	9.1%	89	+1.24	3.68	239	86
Trevor Foss R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	25	SU	4.22	14.5%	5.9%	2.9%	.308	3.77	17.3%	13.8%	42	-0.45	3.77	120	86
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	86
Andrew Bellatti R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	19.3%	8.8%	3.2%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	2.67	278	86
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.16	16.5%	8.7%	206	+0.96	4.20	275	86
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	85
Barrett Loseke R 2022 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	21.7%	10.1%	3.4%	.311	5.31	22.6%	11.3%	22	+0.89	4.42	152	84
Alex Hermeling R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	24	SU	3.96	16.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	127	84
Logan Bawcom R 2015 · 3.85 FIP	26	SU	3.85	15.8%	9.1%	1.7%	.320	4.35	15.9%	6.2%	259	+0.50	3.73	399	84
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	84
Rafael Pineda R 2015 · 4.25 FIP	24	SU	4.25	14.6%	5.2%	3.1%	.298	5.26	6.5%	-3.4%	20	+1.01	4.25	101	84
Brian Glowicki R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	16.4%	8.3%	3.0%	.275	3.92	26.0%	14.1%	62	-0.49	2.31	189	84
Anthony Bass R 2015 · 3.56 FIP	27	SU	3.56	16.5%	7.0%	1.8%	.300	3.43	21.6%	14.2%	123	-0.13	2.93	432	83
Bryan Pope R 2023 · 3.96 FIP	24	SU	3.96	19.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.332	5.20	12.7%	-0.3%	22	+1.24	3.96	148	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	69	18.3%	8.3%	1.18	4.63
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63