Hayden Snelsire

P Montgomery Biscuits

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	23	2	45	2.18	3.63	25.5%	12.2%	—	K 18.9% · BB 13.8% · FIP 5.10
2025	24	A+TB	22	10	79	2.97	2.91	23.6%	5.6%	—	K 18.2% · BB 6.4% · FIP 3.83
2026	25	MIX2 levels	39	1	63	4.16	4.22	25.7%	6.1%	—	K 22.6% · BB 6.3% · FIP 4.91
2027PROJ	26	MLBTB	1	0	1	4.55	4.55	20.0%	6.9%	0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBTB	21	0	22	4.55	4.56	20.3%	7.2%	-0.0
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBTB	29	0	30	4.59	4.63	20.4%	7.5%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control55Command50

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 1.2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 92%

CompsJohn Brebbia (age 26) · R.J. Alaniz (age 26) · Coleman Huntley III (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 103

ERA4.55

FIP4.55

K%20.0%

BB%6.9%

K-BB%13.1%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	3	0	3	10	2	0	0	0%	1.0	20.0%	0.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.41	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	3	0	3	10	2	0	0	0%	1.0	20.0%	0.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.77	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	2	45	196	50	24	4	9%	2.0	18.9%	13.8%	5.1%	3.4%	2.18	5.10	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	2	45	196	50	24	4	9%	2.0	18.9%	13.8%	5.1%	3.4%	2.18	5.10	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	2	45	196	50	24	4	9%	2.0	25.5%	12.2%	13.3%	2.0%	2.18	3.63	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	22	10	79	305	72	17	6	45%	3.6	18.2%	6.4%	11.8%	2.6%	2.97	3.83	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	22	10	79	305	72	17	6	45%	3.6	18.2%	6.4%	11.8%	2.6%	2.97	3.83	—
2025	24	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	22	10	79	305	72	17	6	45%	3.6	23.6%	5.6%	18.0%	2.0%	2.97	2.91	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	1	63	261	67	16	12	3%	1.6	22.6%	6.3%	16.3%	5.3%	4.16	4.91	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	1	63	261	67	16	12	3%	1.6	22.6%	6.3%	16.3%	5.3%	4.16	4.91	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	1	63	261	67	16	12	3%	1.6	25.7%	6.1%	19.5%	4.6%	4.16	4.22	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	TB	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	20.0%	6.9%	13.1%	3.4%	4.55	4.55	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	TB	55	0	58	244	50	18	8	0%	1.1	20.3%	7.2%	13.1%	3.4%	4.55	4.56	-0.0
2029	28	MLB MLE	TB	49	0	51	216	44	16	8	0%	1.0	20.4%	7.5%	13.0%	3.5%	4.59	4.63	-0.0
2030	29	MLB MLE	TB	44	0	46	195	40	15	7	0%	1.1	20.3%	7.8%	12.6%	3.6%	4.68	4.75	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	TB	21	0	22	93	19	7	3	0%	1.0	20.3%	7.2%	13.1%	3.4%	4.55	4.56	-0.0
2029	28	MLB CTX	TB	29	0	30	127	26	9	4	0%	1.0	20.4%	7.5%	13.0%	3.5%	4.59	4.63	-0.0
2030	29	MLB CTX	TB	31	0	33	139	28	11	5	0%	1.1	20.3%	7.8%	12.6%	3.6%	4.68	4.75	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		81	0	85	358	73	27	13	0%	1.0	20.4%	7.5%	12.8%	3.5%	4.61	4.28	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	172	64	31	0%	1.1	20.4%	7.5%	12.8%	3.5%	4.61	4.28	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		87	13	190	772	153	63	28	15%	2.2	19.9%	8.2%	11.7%	3.7%	3.13	4.48	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		92	14	200	814	162	67	30	15%	2.2	19.9%	8.2%	11.7%	3.7%	3.13	4.48	-0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 56 IPFIP 3.90 → 4.91 (+1.01)K% 27.9% → 22.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.88%	—	×0.810	22.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.75%	—	×1.100	6.33%
HR / BF /BF	4.42%	÷1.000	×1.200	5.31%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.90 → 4.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAADurham Bulls · 7 IPFIP 6.36 → 6.70 (+0.34)K% 11.4% → 9.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	11.43%	—	×0.860	9.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.57%	—	×0.900	7.71%
HR / BF /BF	5.71%	÷1.000	×1.100	6.29%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 6.36 → 6.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 79 IPFIP 2.89 → 3.83 (+0.94)K% 23.6% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.61%	—	×0.770	18.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.57%	—	×1.150	6.41%
HR / BF /BF	1.97%	÷0.930	×1.250	2.64%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 86).

Result: FIP 2.89 → 3.83, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ACharleston RiverDogs · 44 IPFIP 3.59 → 5.10 (+1.50)K% 25.5% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.53%	—	×0.740	18.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.70%	—	×1.180	13.81%
HR / BF /BF	2.13%	÷0.824	×1.300	3.36%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 65).

Result: FIP 3.59 → 5.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hayden Snelsire (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.55	20.0%	6.9%	3.4%	—	4.64	20.4%	12.9%	155	+0.09	—	—	—
John Brebbia R 2016 · 4.11 FIP	26	SU	4.11	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.346	3.20	27.6%	21.4%	215	-0.91	2.89	576	86
R.J. Alaniz R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	26	SU	3.91	20.7%	8.9%	2.6%	.318	3.28	23.8%	15.0%	96	-0.63	2.45	362	85
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	85
Ryan Halstead R 2018 · 4.08 FIP	26	SU	4.08	18.0%	6.7%	3.0%	.296	3.24	16.1%	8.7%	64	-0.84	3.12	222	85
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	85
Shawn Camp R 2004 · 4.18 FIP	28	SU	4.18	17.8%	5.2%	3.5%	.305	3.88	15.5%	10.5%	164	-0.30	2.79	589	84
Shay Schanaman R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	21.0%	7.6%	3.7%	.292	6.05	16.4%	2.8%	90	+1.71	4.34	148	84
Troy Neiman R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	26	SU	4.03	18.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	199	83
J.J. Putz R 2004 · 4.57 FIP	27	SU	4.57	17.1%	7.3%	3.6%	.283	2.58	28.5%	23.0%	210	-1.99	1.43	563	82
Jon Leicester R 2004 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	20.0%	8.6%	4.0%	.280	4.44	11.0%	2.0%	32	-0.25	3.76	113	82
Colton Murray R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	26	SU	3.97	21.2%	9.4%	2.7%	.295	4.27	21.8%	13.1%	41	+0.30	3.34	187	82
Ryan Shreve R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	18.4%	7.7%	2.5%	.332	5.07	11.4%	1.0%	59	+1.19	3.16	290	82
Andrew Robinson R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	27	SU	3.77	17.6%	6.3%	2.5%	.246	3.64	22.7%	14.4%	97	-0.13	3.19	160	81
Hueston Morrill R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	19.8%	8.7%	3.7%	.302	3.24	19.0%	8.2%	54	-1.30	3.09	102	81
Joshua Loeschorn R 2023 · 3.86 FIP	23	SU	3.86	24.5%	7.7%	3.4%	.272	4.43	17.1%	8.4%	83	+0.57	3.08	151	81
Trevin Michael R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	26	SU	4.40	22.9%	7.6%	4.1%	.256	3.54	23.7%	11.7%	105	-0.86	2.66	198	81
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	81
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	26	SU	4.46	19.9%	9.8%	3.3%	.278	4.79	22.7%	10.3%	89	+0.33	2.64	315	81
Andres Avila R 2016 · 4.13 FIP	26	SU	4.13	20.3%	6.4%	3.5%	.289	4.06	19.1%	12.1%	56	-0.07	3.98	177	80
Seth Frankoff R 2015 · 4.01 FIP	26	SU	4.01	19.6%	7.4%	2.9%	.312	4.29	20.0%	11.3%	177	+0.28	2.88	263	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	56	20.3%	7.3%	1.35	4.59
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Julio Navarro ('62-'70, 1 WAR*)	1.1	53	21.7%*	7.8%*	1.55*	4.13*
Cris Carpenter ('88-'96, 2 WAR*)	2.1	69	18.3%*	7.4%*	1.15*	4.29*