Ryan Shreve — OGILVIE

Ryan Shreve P Montgomery Biscuits

Age 28 RHP 6'7" / 233 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.11

FIP5.11

K%14.6%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%5.2%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	1	50	211	73	21	2	3%	1.7	25.9%	11.8%	14.0%	1.4%	3.62	3.16	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	1	50	211	73	21	2	3%	1.7	34.6%	10.0%	24.6%	0.9%	3.62	1.95	—
2022	24	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	28	2	38	159	39	14	2	7%	1.4	18.9%	10.1%	8.8%	1.7%	3.08	3.70	—
2022	24	A+ RAW	Cedar Rapids Kernels	28	2	38	159	39	14	2	7%	1.4	24.5%	8.8%	15.7%	1.3%	3.08	2.84	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	44	0	71	309	63	27	12	0%	1.6	16.5%	9.6%	6.9%	4.3%	4.54	5.29	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	44	0	71	309	63	27	12	0%	1.6	16.5%	9.6%	6.9%	4.3%	4.54	5.29	—
2023	25	AA RAW	Springfield Cardinals	44	0	71	309	63	27	12	0%	1.6	20.4%	8.7%	11.7%	3.9%	4.54	4.66	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	73	314	70	25	8	0%	1.8	18.2%	7.7%	10.5%	2.5%	4.19	3.90	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	73	314	70	25	8	0%	1.8	18.2%	7.7%	10.5%	2.5%	4.19	3.90	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	73	314	70	25	8	0%	1.8	22.3%	8.0%	14.3%	2.5%	4.19	3.63	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	1	59	279	38	29	9	3%	2.0	11.2%	10.4%	0.8%	2.9%	6.71	5.09	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	1	59	279	38	29	9	3%	2.0	11.2%	10.4%	0.8%	2.9%	6.71	5.09	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	1	59	279	38	29	9	3%	2.0	13.6%	10.4%	3.2%	3.2%	6.71	5.27	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	TB	4	0	4	17	2	2	1	0%	1.0	14.6%	9.4%	5.2%	3.0%	5.11	5.11	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	TB	41	0	43	180	28	17	6	0%	1.0	15.3%	9.7%	5.6%	3.2%	5.11	5.16	-0.3
2027	29	MLB CTX	TB	12	0	13	55	8	5	2	0%	1.1	15.3%	9.7%	5.6%	3.2%	5.11	5.16	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		13	0	13	56	9	5	2	0%	1.0	15.3%	9.7%	5.6%	3.2%	5.11	4.78	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	135	75	30	0%	1.1	15.3%	9.7%	5.6%	3.2%	5.11	4.78	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		171	4	291	1272	224	124	35	2%	1.7	17.6%	9.8%	7.8%	2.7%	4.55	4.35	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		118	3	200	874	154	85	24	2%	1.7	17.6%	9.8%	7.8%	2.7%	4.55	4.35	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Shreve (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.11	14.6%	9.4%	3.0%	—	5.16	15.3%	5.6%	43	+0.05	—	—	—
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	89
Jose Casilla R 2016 · 4.65 FIP	27	SU	4.65	13.0%	8.0%	3.0%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.06	104	87
Drew Hayes R 2016 · 3.99 FIP	28	SU	3.99	13.8%	10.1%	1.4%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	117	86
Eder Llamas R 2015 · 4.84 FIP	29	SU	4.84	12.3%	8.8%	3.0%	.261	3.64	11.3%	4.6%	120	-1.20	3.23	171	85
Ryan Doolittle R 2016 · 4.38 FIP	28	SU	4.38	13.9%	7.1%	2.8%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	101	85
David Goforth R 2017 · 5.09 FIP	28	SU	5.09	13.6%	10.2%	3.4%	.282	4.07	14.1%	5.5%	68	-1.02	3.98	256	85
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	84
Beck Wheeler R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	15.3%	12.2%	3.7%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	173	83
Collin Balester R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	29	SU	4.22	14.2%	9.3%	2.1%	.240	3.20	21.2%	15.4%	43	-1.02	3.20	116	83
Benjamin Sandoval R 2015 · 4.66 FIP	28	SU	4.66	8.6%	7.8%	2.4%	.253	5.16	5.8%	-5.7%	62	+0.50	4.66	146	83
Tanner Scheppers R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SU	4.37	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.86	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.49	4.37	101	83
Jhan Mariñez R 2017 · 3.97 FIP	28	SU	3.97	17.2%	8.8%	2.2%	.309	4.09	21.2%	13.3%	48	+0.12	3.16	253	82
Tyler Mizenko R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	26	SU	5.15	13.3%	10.2%	3.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	104	82
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	82
Josh Zeid R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	28	SU	4.12	16.6%	12.5%	1.6%	.302	5.19	16.9%	5.7%	194	+1.07	4.12	265	82
Esteban Haro R 2015 · 4.14 FIP	29	SU	4.14	11.6%	8.4%	1.7%	.302	4.25	15.6%	7.8%	78	+0.11	3.76	164	81
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	80
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	80
Grant Black R 2022 · 5.20 FIP	28	SU	5.20	14.0%	11.0%	3.5%	.250	5.54	15.4%	4.1%	79	+0.34	4.46	215	80
Tyson Perez R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	27	SU	4.75	12.2%	5.9%	3.5%	.338	5.69	14.0%	6.8%	32	+0.94	3.32	121	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	44	15.0%	9.5%	1.20	5.11
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74