John Brebbia

P Worcester Red Sox

Age 37 RHP 6'1" / 219 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	34	MIX2 levels	60	1	56	5.75	4.20	28.0%	7.7%	0.2	K 27.7% · BB 7.9% · FIP 4.25
2025	35	MIX2 levels	39	1	44	5.11	3.78	24.0%	8.0%	0.4	K 22.5% · BB 7.8% · FIP 3.88
2026	36	MIX2 levels	44	4	58	4.81	4.00	26.0%	7.1%	0.4	K 23.6% · BB 7.0% · FIP 4.06
2027PROJ	37	MLBCOL	54	0	57	4.53	4.35	23.3%	7.6%	0.1
2028PROJ	38	MLBCOL	37	0	39	4.68	4.78	22.2%	8.3%	-0.1
2029PROJ	39	MLBCOL	27	0	28	5.00	5.21	21.0%	9.0%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.0 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

K%52

xwOBA vs34

FB Velo23

CompsMatt Bush (age 37) · Chris Nichting (age 36) · Rudy Gonzalez (age 36)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.53

FIP4.35

K%23.3%

BB%7.6%

K-BB%15.8%

Proj IP57

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD5555

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2392.6

Whiff%

p1119.8%

p5222.6%

xwOBA vs

p340.330

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	68	307	68	19	9	0%	1.6	18.6%	6.6%	12.0%	3.2%	5.03	4.11	—
2016	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	68	307	68	19	9	0%	1.6	22.1%	6.2%	16.0%	2.9%	5.03	3.66	—
2017	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	65	1	78	310	80	13	10	2%	1.2	24.7%	4.3%	20.4%	3.5%	2.18	3.48	+1.0
2017	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	65	1	78	310	80	13	10	2%	1.2	25.8%	4.2%	21.6%	3.2%	2.18	3.21	+1.2
2018	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	0	64	270	84	17	8	0%	1.1	30.0%	6.4%	23.7%	3.3%	3.50	3.20	+1.0
2018	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	56	0	64	270	84	17	8	0%	1.1	31.1%	6.3%	24.8%	3.0%	3.50	2.90	+1.3
2019	29	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	66	0	73	304	87	25	6	0%	1.1	28.6%	8.2%	20.4%	2.1%	3.59	2.89	+1.4
2019	29	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	66	0	73	304	87	25	6	0%	1.1	28.6%	8.2%	20.4%	2.0%	3.59	2.81	+1.5
2021	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	2	34	148	49	7	6	6%	1.0	30.9%	4.9%	26.0%	4.4%	4.54	3.53	+0.4
2021	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	2	34	148	49	7	6	6%	1.0	33.1%	4.7%	28.4%	4.1%	4.54	3.13	+0.6
2022	32	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	76	11	68	288	54	16	5	14%	0.9	18.8%	5.6%	13.2%	1.9%	3.18	3.25	+1.1
2022	32	MLB RAW	San Francisco Giants	76	11	68	288	54	16	5	14%	0.9	18.8%	5.6%	13.2%	1.7%	3.18	3.17	+1.1
2023	33	MIX MLE	3 levels	43	11	41	174	52	13	6	26%	1.0	29.2%	7.5%	21.7%	4.0%	3.70	3.79	+0.4
2023	33	MIX RAW	3 levels	43	11	41	174	52	13	6	26%	1.0	29.9%	7.5%	22.4%	3.4%	3.70	3.41	+0.6
2024	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	60	1	56	246	69	19	11	2%	0.9	27.7%	7.9%	19.8%	4.5%	5.75	4.25	+0.2
2024	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	60	1	56	246	69	19	11	2%	0.9	27.7%	7.9%	19.8%	4.5%	5.75	4.25	+0.2
2024	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	60	1	56	246	69	19	11	2%	0.9	28.0%	7.7%	20.3%	4.5%	5.75	4.20	+0.2
2025	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	1	44	200	48	16	6	3%	1.1	22.5%	7.8%	14.7%	3.1%	5.11	3.88	+0.4
2025	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	1	44	200	48	16	6	3%	1.1	22.5%	7.8%	14.7%	3.1%	5.11	3.88	+0.4
2025	35	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	1	44	200	48	16	6	3%	1.1	24.0%	8.0%	16.0%	3.0%	5.11	3.78	+0.4
2026	36	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	4	58	254	66	18	10	9%	1.3	23.6%	7.0%	16.7%	3.8%	4.81	4.06	+0.3
2026	36	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	4	58	254	66	18	10	9%	1.3	23.6%	7.0%	16.7%	3.8%	4.81	4.06	+0.3
2026	36	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	4	58	254	66	18	10	9%	1.3	26.0%	7.1%	18.9%	3.9%	4.81	4.00	+0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			379	21	383	1636	416	108	52	6%	1.0	25.4%	6.6%	18.8%	3.2%	4.12	3.54	+4.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	37	MLB	COL	54	0	57	241	56	18	8	0%	1.1	23.3%	7.6%	15.8%	3.4%	4.53	4.35	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	38	MLB MLE	COL	37	0	39	166	37	14	6	0%	1.1	22.2%	8.3%	13.9%	3.9%	4.68	4.78	-0.1
2029	39	MLB MLE	COL	26	0	28	117	25	11	5	0%	1.1	21.0%	9.0%	12.1%	4.3%	5.00	5.21	-0.2
2028	38	MLB CTX	COL	37	0	39	165	37	14	6	0%	1.1	22.2%	8.3%	13.9%	3.9%	4.68	4.78	-0.1
2029	39	MLB CTX	COL	27	0	28	118	25	11	5	0%	1.0	21.0%	9.0%	12.1%	4.3%	5.00	5.21	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		443	21	450	1919	477	132	63	5%	1.0	24.9%	6.9%	18.0%	3.3%	4.22	3.69	+4.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		197	9	200	853	212	59	28	5%	1.0	24.9%	6.9%	18.0%	3.3%	4.22	3.69	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		527	31	585	2501	625	164	82	6%	1.1	25.0%	6.6%	18.4%	3.3%	4.02	3.62	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		180	11	200	856	214	56	28	6%	1.1	25.0%	6.6%	18.4%	3.3%	4.02	3.62	+1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 54 IPFIP 3.64 → 4.06 (+0.42)K% 27.5% → 23.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.47%	—	×0.860	23.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.73%	—	×0.900	6.95%
HR / BF /BF	3.43%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.78%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.64 → 4.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 21 IPFIP 2.16 → 2.50 (+0.34)K% 25.9% → 22.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.88%	—	×0.860	22.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.71%	—	×0.900	4.24%
HR / BF /BF	1.18%	÷0.961	×1.100	1.35%

Result: FIP 2.16 → 2.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAASacramento River Cats · 15 IPFIP 2.20 → 2.89 (+0.69)K% 44.3% → 39.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	44.26%	—	×0.880	38.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.20%	—	×1.050	8.61%
HR / BF /BF	3.28%	÷0.995	×1.100	3.62%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 99).

Result: FIP 2.20 → 2.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 14 IPFIP 3.10 → 4.10 (+1.00)K% 39.3% → 34.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.34%	—	×0.880	34.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.92%	—	×1.050	5.16%
HR / BF /BF	4.92%	÷0.909	×1.100	5.95%

Result: FIP 3.10 → 4.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 27 IPFIP 2.39 → 2.84 (+0.46)K% 28.7% → 25.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.71%	—	×0.880	25.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.95%	—	×1.050	5.20%
HR / BF /BF	1.98%	÷0.980	×1.100	2.22%

Result: FIP 2.39 → 2.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AASpringfield Cardinals · 38 IPFIP 3.62 → 4.13 (+0.51)K% 23.6% → 19.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.60%	—	×0.810	19.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.73%	—	×1.100	4.10%
HR / BF /BF	3.73%	÷1.155	×1.200	3.87%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 131).

Result: FIP 3.62 → 4.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 30 IPFIP 3.62 → 4.09 (+0.47)K% 20.5% → 18.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.55%	—	×0.880	18.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.90%	—	×1.050	9.35%
HR / BF /BF	2.05%	÷0.931	×1.100	2.43%

Result: FIP 3.62 → 4.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
John Brebbia (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.35	23.3%	7.6%	3.4%	—	4.96	21.7%	13.1%	67	+0.61	—	—	—
Matt Bush R 2023 · 3.79 FIP	37	SU	3.79	26.2%	8.7%	3.3%	.225	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	249	73
Chris Nichting R 2002 · 4.67 FIP	36	SU	4.67	16.6%	3.3%	4.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	103	69
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	68
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	68
Juan Sandoval R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	36	SU	3.42	16.7%	7.2%	1.5%	.298	5.41	15.9%	8.7%	57	+1.99	3.24	225	67
Pete Walker R 2006 · 4.45 FIP	37	SU	4.45	19.6%	8.0%	3.6%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	327	67
Scott Atchison R 2013 · 3.80 FIP	37	SU	3.80	14.4%	6.2%	2.1%	.273	3.60	16.7%	12.9%	92	-0.20	2.52	340	63
Salvador Valdez R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	36	SW	4.30	17.1%	8.2%	2.9%	.405	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	326	62
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	57
Hector Navarro R 2017 · 3.53 FIP	37	SU	3.53	11.5%	5.6%	1.3%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	126	55
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	3.93	194	53
Brian Sweeney R 2010 · 4.63 FIP	36	SU	4.63	9.5%	3.4%	3.5%	.226	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	108	51
Tony Pena Jr. R 2017 · 3.43 FIP	36	SU	3.43	10.9%	4.3%	1.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	128	51
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2020 · 5.02 FIP	36	SU	5.02	17.5%	12.7%	3.3%	.381	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	132	48
Hisanori Takahashi L 2012 · 4.04 FIP	37	SU	4.04	24.5%	6.1%	4.1%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	240	38
Heriberto Ruelas L 2017 · 3.42 FIP	35	SU	3.42	17.2%	6.7%	1.7%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	117	36
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	33
Jonathan Castellanos R 2019 · 5.24 FIP	37	SW	5.24	11.0%	9.0%	3.5%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	394	32
Brian Shouse L 2006 · 4.19 FIP	37	SU	4.19	13.2%	7.5%	2.3%	.269	3.37	15.3%	11.0%	127	-0.82	2.32	339	31

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	51	24.7%	7.6%	1.29	4.25
Joel Peralta ('16)	3.2	54	23.0%	7.0%	1.32	4.03
Bob Patterson ('85-'98, 4 WAR*)	3.1	51	23.0%*	6.7%*	1.32*	4.33*
Trevor May ('23)	2.3	50	26.8%	8.5%	1.20	4.24
Shawn Kelley ('19)	2.3	46	27.0%	7.3%	1.47	3.80
Tom Niedenfuer ('81-'90, 8 WAR*)	3.3	65	23.1%*	8.1%*	1.19*	3.80*
Joe Hoerner ('63-'77, 8 WAR*)	2.8	51	23.2%*	7.9%*	1.21*	3.52*