John Brebbia — OGILVIE

John Brebbia P Worcester Red Sox

Age 36 RHP 6'1" / 219 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION57 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.49

FIP4.38

K%24.2%

BB%8.1%

K-BB%16.1%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD5555

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2392.6

Whiff%

p1119.8%

p5222.6%

xwOBA vs

p340.330

CH-0.9 (7%)

FB-3.3 (49%)

SL-3.5 (43%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	68	307	68	19	9	0%	1.6	18.6%	6.6%	12.0%	3.2%	5.03	4.11	—
2016	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	68	307	68	19	9	0%	1.6	22.1%	6.2%	16.0%	2.9%	5.03	3.66	—
2017	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	65	1	78	310	80	13	10	2%	1.2	24.7%	4.3%	20.4%	3.5%	2.18	3.48	+1.0
2017	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	65	1	78	310	80	13	10	2%	1.2	25.8%	4.2%	21.6%	3.2%	2.18	3.21	+1.2
2018	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	0	64	270	84	17	8	0%	1.1	30.0%	6.4%	23.7%	3.3%	3.50	3.20	+1.0
2018	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	56	0	64	270	84	17	8	0%	1.1	31.1%	6.3%	24.8%	3.0%	3.50	2.90	+1.3
2019	29	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	66	0	73	304	87	25	6	0%	1.1	28.6%	8.2%	20.4%	2.1%	3.59	2.89	+1.4
2019	29	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	66	0	73	304	87	25	6	0%	1.1	28.6%	8.2%	20.4%	2.0%	3.59	2.81	+1.5
2021	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	2	34	148	49	7	6	6%	1.0	30.9%	4.9%	26.0%	4.4%	4.54	3.53	+0.4
2021	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	2	34	148	49	7	6	6%	1.0	33.1%	4.7%	28.4%	4.1%	4.54	3.13	+0.6
2022	32	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	76	11	68	288	54	16	5	14%	0.9	18.8%	5.6%	13.2%	1.9%	3.18	3.25	+1.1
2022	32	MLB RAW	San Francisco Giants	76	11	68	288	54	16	5	14%	0.9	18.8%	5.6%	13.2%	1.7%	3.18	3.17	+1.1
2023	33	MIX MLE	3 levels	43	11	41	174	52	13	6	26%	1.0	29.2%	7.5%	21.7%	4.0%	3.70	3.79	+0.4
2023	33	MIX MLE	3 levels	43	11	41	174	52	13	6	26%	1.0	29.2%	7.5%	21.7%	4.0%	3.70	3.79	+0.4
2023	33	MIX RAW	3 levels	43	11	41	174	52	13	6	26%	1.0	29.9%	7.5%	22.4%	3.4%	3.70	3.41	+0.6
2024	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	60	1	56	246	69	19	11	2%	0.9	27.7%	7.9%	19.8%	4.5%	5.75	4.25	+0.2
2024	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	60	1	56	246	69	19	11	2%	0.9	27.7%	7.9%	19.8%	4.5%	5.75	4.25	+0.2
2024	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	60	1	56	246	69	19	11	2%	0.9	28.0%	7.7%	20.3%	4.5%	5.75	4.20	+0.2
2025	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	1	44	200	48	16	6	3%	1.1	22.1%	7.8%	14.3%	3.1%	5.11	3.91	+0.3
2025	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	1	44	200	48	16	6	3%	1.1	22.1%	7.8%	14.3%	3.1%	5.11	3.91	+0.3
2025	35	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	1	44	200	48	16	6	3%	1.1	24.0%	8.0%	16.0%	3.0%	5.11	3.78	+0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			379	21	383	1636	416	108	52	6%	1.0	25.4%	6.6%	18.8%	3.2%	4.12	3.54	+4.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	36	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	43	4	57	250	65	18	10	9%	1.3	22.8%	7.1%	15.8%	3.8%	4.89	4.18	—
YTD	36	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	43	4	57	250	65	18	10	9%	1.3	22.8%	7.1%	15.8%	3.8%	4.89	4.18	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	36	AAA RAW	COL	40	4	53	229	63	18	8	10%	1.3	27.5%	7.9%	19.7%	3.5%	4.44	3.69	—
2026	36	MLB RAW	COL	3	0	4	21	2	0	2	0%	1.4	9.5%	0.0%	9.5%	9.5%	10.38	7.52	—
SO FAR	36	MLB RAW	COL	3	0	4	21	2	0	2	0%	1.4	9.5%	0.0%	9.5%	9.5%	10.38	7.52	—
ROS	36	MLB MLE	COL	4	0	5	20	5	2	1	0%	1.2	24.2%	8.1%	16.1%	3.5%	4.49	4.38	+0.0
ROS	36	MLB CTX	COL	5	0	5	21	5	2	1	0%	1.0	24.2%	8.1%	16.1%	3.5%	4.49	4.38	+0.0
2026 TOT	36	MLB MLE	COL	—	—	62	270	70	20	11	—	—	25.9%	7.3%	18.6%	4.0%	4.86	4.19	+0.3
FULL	36	MLB A+C	COL	—	—	9	38	70	20	11	—	—	183.7%	51.6%	132.1%	28.1%	33.34	9.57	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	37	MLB MLE	COL	43	0	45	189	42	16	8	0%	1.0	22.2%	8.3%	13.9%	4.2%	4.82	4.94	-0.2
2027	37	MLB CTX	COL	43	0	45	190	42	16	8	0%	1.0	22.2%	8.3%	13.9%	4.2%	4.82	4.94	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		426	21	432	1845	463	125	61	5%	1.0	25.1%	6.8%	18.3%	3.3%	4.19	3.64	+4.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		197	10	200	854	214	58	28	5%	1.0	25.1%	6.8%	18.3%	3.3%	4.19	3.64	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		526	31	584	2497	622	164	82	6%	1.1	24.9%	6.6%	18.3%	3.3%	4.02	3.63	+4.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		180	11	200	856	213	56	28	6%	1.1	24.9%	6.6%	18.3%	3.3%	4.02	3.63	+2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
John Brebbia (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.38	24.2%	8.1%	3.5%	—	4.94	22.2%	13.9%	45	+0.56	—	—	—
Santiago Casilla R 2016 · 3.69 FIP	36	SU	3.69	27.0%	7.1%	3.6%	.278	4.13	19.8%	8.7%	103	+0.44	3.50	219	81
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	107	78
Fernando Rodney R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	38	SU	4.37	20.9%	9.4%	3.4%	.272	3.37	26.2%	15.2%	185	-1.00	2.69	295	76
Tommy Hunter R 2022 · 3.98 FIP	36	SU	3.98	22.1%	4.5%	4.0%	.292	5.22	18.9%	14.2%	24	+1.24	2.78	316	75
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	186	75
Joaquín Benoit R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	38	SU	3.58	24.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.179	4.11	23.5%	12.9%	98	+0.53	3.58	164	75
Dustin McGowan R 2017 · 4.58 FIP	35	SU	4.58	19.4%	6.7%	4.2%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	208	74
Matt Albers R 2019 · 4.13 FIP	36	SU	4.13	22.1%	10.1%	2.9%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.15	244	73
Manny Acosta R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	35	SU	4.19	18.1%	9.1%	2.7%	.273	3.08	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.11	3.08	102	72
Jim Johnson R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	35	SU	4.48	16.8%	7.8%	3.3%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	2.56	251	71
Carlos Torres R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	36	SU	4.28	17.8%	9.0%	2.8%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.89	326	70
Blaine Boyer R 2017 · 3.24 FIP	36	SU	3.24	18.0%	7.6%	1.3%	.341	7.38	8.3%	-0.9%	22	+4.14	3.24	209	70
Rafael Martín R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	35	SU	4.71	22.5%	6.0%	5.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	227	69
Mark Lowe R 2017 · 5.03 FIP	34	SU	5.03	16.4%	10.0%	3.7%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	2.37	153	69
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2019 · 5.11 FIP	35	SW	5.11	25.0%	11.2%	4.9%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	212	68
Juan Sandoval R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	36	SU	3.42	16.7%	7.2%	1.5%	.298	5.41	15.9%	8.7%	57	+1.99	3.24	225	67
Joe Blanton R 2017 · 4.94 FIP	36	SU	4.94	20.0%	5.6%	5.1%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	240	67
Blake Parker R 2021 · 3.86 FIP	36	SU	3.86	20.0%	7.6%	2.7%	.295	5.74	26.0%	14.0%	27	+1.88	2.52	339	67
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	66
Daniel Bard R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	36	SU	3.62	26.3%	11.5%	2.3%	.337	3.64	24.6%	10.3%	110	+0.02	2.56	200	64

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.5	48	23.3%	8.2%	1.47	4.64
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Félix Peña ('20)	1.2	62	23.6%	8.3%	1.37	4.46