John Brebbia
P
St. Paul Saints
+0.2
WAR
Age 36
RHP
6'1" / 219 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.91
FIP4.40
xFIP5.34
SIERA4.21
K%24.6%
BB%8.5%
K-BB%16.1%
IP35
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL5050
CMD5555
K†6060
FB Velo
p2392.6
Whiff%
p1119.8%
K%
p5222.6%
xwOBA vs
p340.330
CH-0.9 (7%)
FB-3.3 (49%)
SL-3.5 (43%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 26 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 43 | 0 | 68 | 307 | 68 | 19 | 9 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 3.3% | 5.03 | 4.15 | +0.7 |
| 2017 | 27 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 65 | 1 | 78 | 310 | 80 | 13 | 10 | 24.7% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.18 | 3.50 | +1.4 |
| 2018 | 28 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 56 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 84 | 17 | 8 | 30.0% | 6.4% | 3.3% | 3.50 | 3.20 | +1.3 |
| 2019 | 29 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 66 | 0 | 73 | 304 | 87 | 25 | 6 | 28.6% | 8.2% | 2.3% | 3.59 | 2.96 | +1.7 |
| 2021 | 31 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 35 | 2 | 34 | 148 | 49 | 7 | 6 | 30.9% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.54 | 3.51 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 32 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 76 | 11 | 68 | 288 | 54 | 16 | 5 | 18.8% | 5.6% | 1.7% | 3.18 | 3.16 | +1.4 |
| 2023 | 33 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 43 | 11 | 41 | 174 | 52 | 13 | 6 | 29.2% | 7.5% | 3.6% | 3.70 | 3.57 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 34 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 60 | 1 | 56 | 246 | 69 | 19 | 11 | 27.7% | 7.9% | 4.9% | 5.75 | 4.46 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 35 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 39 | 1 | 44 | 200 | 48 | 16 | 6 | 22.7% | 8.1% | 3.1% | 5.11 | 3.90 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 36 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 7 | 0 | 11 | 43 | 17 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.84 | — | — |
| ROS | 36 | MLB | MIN | 35 | — | 35 | 147 | 36 | 12 | 5 | 24.1% | 8.5% | 3.6% | 4.92 | 4.46 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 36 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 46 | 190 | 53 | 15 | 5 | 27.6% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 3.97 | 3.42 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | MIN | 32 | — | 32 | 137 | 32 | 12 | 5 | 23.3% | 8.7% | 3.7% | 4.75 | 4.64 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 490 | 27 | 537 | 2290 | 583 | 150 | 73 | 25.5% | 6.6% | 3.2% | 3.87 | 3.53 | +10.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 182 | 10 | 200 | 852 | 217 | 56 | 27 | 25.5% | 6.6% | 3.2% | 3.87 | 3.53 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| John Brebbia (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.46 | 24.1% | 8.5% | 3.6% | — | 4.64 | 23.3% | 14.6% | 32 | +0.18 | — | — | — |
| Josh Lueke R 2024 · 4.14 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.14 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 3.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 107 | 78 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 36 | SW | 3.73 | 27.0% | 7.1% | 3.7% | .278 | 3.99 | 19.8% | 8.7% | 103 | +0.26 | 3.50 | 219 | 76 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2028 · 4.17 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.17 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.0% | .272 | 3.38 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.79 | 2.67 | 295 | 74 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.02 | 22.1% | 4.5% | 4.0% | .292 | 5.18 | 18.9% | 14.2% | 24 | +1.16 | 2.73 | 316 | 74 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2028 · 3.55 FIP | 38 | SW | 3.55 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 2.6% | .179 | 4.12 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.57 | 3.55 | 164 | 73 |
| Jean Machi R 2025 · 4.11 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.11 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 3.2% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 186 | 72 |
| Manny Acosta R 2025 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 70 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2025 · 4.45 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.45 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 3.9% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 208 | 70 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2025 · 5.14 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.14 | 25.0% | 11.2% | 5.0% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 212 | 70 |
| Logan Ondrusek R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.34 | 19.2% | 7.3% | 3.5% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 138 | 70 |
| Matt Albers R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.19 | 22.1% | 10.1% | 3.0% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 244 | 69 |
| Rafael Martín R 2025 · 4.70 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.70 | 22.5% | 6.0% | 5.0% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.89 | 227 | 69 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.29 | 17.8% | 9.0% | 2.8% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.89 | 326 | 68 |
| Mark Lowe R 2024 · 5.01 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.01 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.7% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 153 | 68 |
| Jim Johnson R 2025 · 4.52 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.52 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.4% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.57 | 251 | 68 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2024 · 4.09 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.09 | 15.0% | 6.4% | 2.6% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 132 | 67 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.65 | 15.8% | 7.1% | 3.6% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 119 | 67 |
| Brandon McCarthy R 2025 · 4.94 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.94 | 19.2% | 6.2% | 4.9% | .332 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 248 | 67 |
| Blaine Boyer R 2026 · 3.32 FIP | 36 | SW | 3.32 | 18.0% | 7.6% | 1.4% | .341 | 7.44 | 8.3% | -0.9% | 22 | +4.12 | 3.32 | 209 | 66 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 36 | SW | 3.46 | 16.7% | 7.2% | 1.6% | .298 | 5.44 | 15.9% | 8.7% | 57 | +1.98 | 3.21 | 225 | 66 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.