John Brebbia
P
Albuquerque Isotopes
Age 36
RHP
6'1" / 219 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION55 act + 47 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119109vR 100
ERA4.49
FIP4.38
K%24.4%
BB%8.2%
K-BB%16.2%
ROS IP47
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 102 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p2392.6
Whiff%
p1119.8%
K%
p5222.6%
xwOBA vs
p340.330
CH-0.9 (7%)
FB-3.3 (49%)
SL-3.5 (43%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 68 | 307 | 68 | 19 | 9 | 0% | 1.6 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 12.0% | 3.0% | 5.03 | 4.03 | — |
| 2016 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 68 | 307 | 68 | 19 | 9 | 0% | 1.6 | 22.1% | 6.2% | 16.0% | 2.9% | 5.03 | 3.66 | — |
| 2017 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 65 | 1 | 78 | 310 | 80 | 13 | 10 | 2% | 1.2 | 24.7% | 4.3% | 20.4% | 3.3% | 2.18 | 3.39 | +1.4 |
| 2017 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 65 | 1 | 78 | 310 | 80 | 13 | 10 | 2% | 1.2 | 25.8% | 4.2% | 21.6% | 3.2% | 2.18 | 3.21 | +1.6 |
| 2018 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 56 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 84 | 17 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 30.0% | 6.4% | 23.7% | 3.4% | 3.50 | 3.21 | +1.1 |
| 2018 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 56 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 84 | 17 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 31.1% | 6.3% | 24.8% | 3.0% | 3.50 | 2.90 | +1.3 |
| 2019 | 29 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 66 | 0 | 73 | 304 | 87 | 25 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.6% | 8.2% | 20.4% | 2.0% | 3.59 | 2.81 | +1.7 |
| 2019 | 29 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 66 | 0 | 73 | 304 | 87 | 25 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.6% | 8.2% | 20.4% | 2.0% | 3.59 | 2.81 | +1.7 |
| 2021 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 2 | 34 | 148 | 49 | 7 | 6 | 6% | 1.0 | 30.9% | 4.9% | 26.0% | 4.4% | 4.54 | 3.55 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 2 | 34 | 148 | 49 | 7 | 6 | 6% | 1.0 | 33.1% | 4.7% | 28.4% | 4.1% | 4.54 | 3.13 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 32 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 76 | 11 | 68 | 288 | 54 | 16 | 5 | 14% | 0.9 | 18.8% | 5.6% | 13.2% | 1.9% | 3.18 | 3.26 | +1.2 |
| 2022 | 32 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 76 | 11 | 68 | 288 | 54 | 16 | 5 | 14% | 0.9 | 18.8% | 5.6% | 13.2% | 1.7% | 3.18 | 3.17 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 33 | MIX | 3 levels | 43 | 11 | 41 | 174 | 52 | 13 | 6 | 26% | 1.0 | 29.2% | 7.5% | 21.7% | 4.1% | 3.70 | 3.80 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 33 | MIX | 3 levels | 43 | 11 | 41 | 174 | 52 | 13 | 6 | 26% | 1.0 | 29.9% | 7.5% | 22.4% | 3.4% | 3.70 | 3.41 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 34 | MIX | 2 levels | 60 | 1 | 56 | 246 | 69 | 19 | 11 | 2% | 0.9 | 27.7% | 7.9% | 19.8% | 4.5% | 5.75 | 4.25 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 34 | MIX | 2 levels | 60 | 1 | 56 | 246 | 69 | 19 | 11 | 2% | 0.9 | 28.0% | 7.7% | 20.3% | 4.5% | 5.75 | 4.20 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 35 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 1 | 44 | 200 | 48 | 16 | 6 | 3% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 8.1% | 14.6% | 3.1% | 5.11 | 3.91 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 35 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 1 | 44 | 200 | 48 | 16 | 6 | 3% | 1.1 | 24.0% | 8.0% | 16.0% | 3.0% | 5.11 | 3.78 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 36 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 41 | 4 | 55 | 242 | 66 | 21 | 11 | 10% | 1.3 | 25.5% | 10.0% | 15.5% | 4.5% | 5.69 | 4.67 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 36 | MLB | MIN | 45 | 0 | 47 | 199 | 49 | 16 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.4% | 8.2% | 16.2% | 3.5% | 4.49 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 36 | MLB | MIN | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 48 | 16 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.4% | 8.2% | 16.2% | 3.5% | 4.49 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 36 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 102 | 441 | 115 | 37 | 18 | — | — | 26.0% | 8.5% | 17.5% | 4.1% | 5.14 | 4.54 | +1.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 36 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 51 | 217 | 115 | 37 | 18 | — | — | 52.8% | 17.2% | 35.6% | 8.3% | 10.24 | 5.37 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | MIN | 43 | 0 | 45 | 189 | 42 | 16 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 8.4% | 14.0% | 4.2% | 4.82 | 4.94 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | MIN | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 43 | 16 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 8.4% | 14.0% | 4.2% | 4.82 | 4.94 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 466 | 21 | 475 | 2024 | 507 | 140 | 67 | 5% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 6.9% | 18.1% | 3.3% | 4.22 | 3.68 | +9.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 197 | 9 | 200 | 853 | 214 | 59 | 28 | 5% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 6.9% | 18.1% | 3.3% | 4.22 | 3.68 | +4.0 | ||
| Career | — | 524 | 31 | 582 | 2489 | 628 | 172 | 82 | 6% | 1.1 | 25.2% | 6.9% | 18.3% | 3.3% | 4.10 | 3.65 | +11.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 180 | 11 | 200 | 855 | 216 | 59 | 28 | 6% | 1.1 | 25.2% | 6.9% | 18.3% | 3.3% | 4.10 | 3.65 | +4.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| John Brebbia (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.38 | 24.4% | 8.2% | 3.5% | — | 4.94 | 22.4% | 14.0% | 45 | +0.56 | — | — | — |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.70 | 27.0% | 7.1% | 3.6% | .278 | 4.06 | 19.8% | 8.7% | 103 | +0.36 | 3.51 | 219 | 79 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.26 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .272 | 3.34 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.92 | 2.67 | 295 | 76 |
| Josh Lueke R 2024 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 107 | 76 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2028 · 3.73 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.73 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .179 | 4.04 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.31 | 3.72 | 164 | 75 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.96 | 22.1% | 4.5% | 3.9% | .292 | 5.23 | 18.9% | 14.2% | 24 | +1.27 | 2.82 | 316 | 74 |
| Jean Machi R 2025 · 3.92 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.92 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 186 | 72 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.59 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 4.2% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 208 | 71 |
| Manny Acosta R 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 71 |
| Matt Albers R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.28 | 22.1% | 10.1% | 3.2% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 244 | 71 |
| Rafael Martín R 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.60 | 22.5% | 6.0% | 4.8% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 227 | 70 |
| Jim Johnson R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.58 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 251 | 69 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.53 | 16.7% | 7.2% | 1.7% | .298 | 5.49 | 15.9% | 8.7% | 57 | +1.96 | 3.17 | 225 | 67 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.25 | 17.8% | 9.0% | 2.7% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.78 | 326 | 67 |
| Blaine Boyer R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.21 | 18.0% | 7.6% | 1.2% | .341 | 7.33 | 8.3% | -0.9% | 22 | +4.12 | 3.21 | 209 | 67 |
| Mark Lowe R 2024 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 153 | 67 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2025 · 5.26 FIP | 35 | SW | 5.26 | 25.0% | 11.2% | 5.2% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 212 | 66 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.56 | 15.8% | 7.1% | 3.5% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 119 | 66 |
| Joe Blanton R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.94 | 20.0% | 5.6% | 5.1% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 240 | 65 |
| Blake Parker R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.86 | 20.0% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .295 | 5.60 | 26.0% | 14.0% | 27 | +1.74 | 2.61 | 339 | 65 |
| Jay Jackson R 2026 · 5.29 FIP | 36 | SU | 5.29 | 25.4% | 7.9% | 6.1% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.41 | 261 | 64 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 48 | 23.5% | 8.3% | 1.47 | 4.64 |
| Mike Mayers ('23) | 5 | 47 | 24.3% | 7.8% | 1.50 | 4.47 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |