Holt Jones

P Pensacola Blue Wahoos

Age 28 RHP 6'7" / 235 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	39	50	4.68	3.32	25.3%	12.9%	—	K 19.0% · BB 15.0% · FIP 4.36
2025	26	A+MIA	34	47	4.75	3.63	26.3%	17.4%	—	K 20.2% · BB 20.0% · FIP 4.50
2026	27	MIX3 levels	47	76	4.26	3.39	29.4%	9.7%	—	K 23.7% · BB 10.4% · FIP 4.21
2027PROJ	28	MLBMIA	1	1	5.29	5.29	21.9%	15.6%	-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	29	MLBMIA	15	16	5.27	5.32	21.8%	15.2%	-0.1
2029PROJ51% MLB	30	MLBMIA	20	21	5.33	5.43	21.6%	15.1%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control20Command35

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 0.2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsSpencer Bivens (age 28) · Brandon Cunniff (age 28) · Jim Miller (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 117

ERA5.29

FIP5.29

K%21.9%

BB%15.6%

K-BB%6.3%

Proj IP69

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL2020

CMD3535

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	0	9	44	11	4	0	0%	1.8	25.0%	9.1%	15.9%	0.0%	8.00	2.14	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	0	9	44	11	4	0	0%	1.8	25.0%	9.1%	15.9%	0.0%	8.00	1.99	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	8	34	162	39	25	5	80%	3.4	17.9%	19.5%	-1.7%	4.7%	4.72	6.63	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	8	34	162	39	25	5	80%	3.4	24.1%	15.4%	8.6%	3.1%	4.72	4.91	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	10	55	256	55	38	4	50%	2.7	16.1%	17.9%	-1.8%	1.9%	6.09	5.06	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	20	10	55	256	55	38	4	50%	2.7	21.5%	14.8%	6.6%	1.6%	6.09	4.12	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	50	233	59	30	3	0%	1.3	19.0%	15.0%	4.1%	1.8%	4.68	4.36	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	50	233	59	30	3	0%	1.3	19.0%	15.0%	4.1%	1.8%	4.68	4.36	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	50	233	59	30	3	0%	1.3	25.3%	12.9%	12.4%	1.3%	4.68	3.32	—
2025	26	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	34	0	47	236	62	41	2	0%	1.4	20.2%	20.0%	0.3%	1.1%	4.75	4.50	—
2025	26	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	34	0	47	236	62	41	2	0%	1.4	20.2%	20.0%	0.3%	1.1%	4.75	4.50	—
2025	26	A+ RAW	Beloit Sky Carp	34	0	47	236	62	41	2	0%	1.4	26.3%	17.4%	8.9%	0.8%	4.75	3.63	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	47	0	76	320	94	31	9	0%	1.6	23.7%	10.4%	13.3%	3.3%	4.26	4.21	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	47	0	76	320	94	31	9	0%	1.6	23.7%	10.4%	13.3%	3.3%	4.26	4.21	—
2026	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	47	0	76	320	94	31	9	0%	1.6	29.4%	9.7%	19.7%	2.8%	4.26	3.39	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	MIA	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	21.9%	15.6%	6.3%	3.1%	5.29	5.29	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	MIA	48	0	51	214	47	32	7	0%	1.1	21.8%	15.2%	6.6%	3.2%	5.27	5.32	-0.4
2029	30	MLB MLE	MIA	40	0	42	175	38	26	6	0%	1.0	21.6%	15.1%	6.5%	3.4%	5.33	5.43	-0.4
2028	29	MLB CTX	MIA	15	0	16	68	15	10	2	0%	1.1	21.8%	15.2%	6.6%	3.2%	5.27	5.32	-0.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	MIA	20	0	21	89	19	13	3	0%	1.1	21.6%	15.1%	6.5%	3.4%	5.33	5.43	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		35	0	37	157	34	24	5	0%	1.1	21.7%	15.1%	6.6%	3.3%	5.30	5.00	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	183	129	27	0%	1.1	21.7%	15.1%	6.6%	3.3%	5.30	5.00	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		155	18	271	1251	249	197	30	12%	1.8	19.9%	15.7%	4.2%	2.4%	4.98	4.71	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		114	13	200	922	184	145	22	12%	1.8	19.9%	15.7%	4.2%	2.4%	4.98	4.71	-1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 45 IPFIP 1.82 → 2.53 (+0.71)K% 33.1% → 26.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.15%	—	×0.810	26.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.55%	—	×1.100	10.51%
HR / BF /BF	0.56%	÷1.000	×1.200	0.67%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.82 → 2.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 19 IPFIP 3.95 → 5.16 (+1.20)K% 27.4% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.38%	—	×0.770	21.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.52%	—	×1.150	10.95%
HR / BF /BF	3.57%	÷1.000	×1.250	4.46%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.95 → 5.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 12 IPFIP 7.40 → 7.98 (+0.59)K% 20.7% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.69%	—	×0.860	17.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.34%	—	×0.900	9.31%
HR / BF /BF	8.62%	÷1.000	×1.100	9.48%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 7.40 → 7.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 47 IPFIP 3.55 → 4.50 (+0.95)K% 26.3% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.27%	—	×0.770	20.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.37%	—	×1.150	19.98%
HR / BF /BF	0.85%	÷1.006	×1.250	1.05%

Result: FIP 3.55 → 4.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AJupiter Hammerheads · 28 IPFIP 2.24 → 3.33 (+1.09)K% 30.1% → 22.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.08%	—	×0.740	22.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.76%	—	×1.180	11.51%
HR / BF /BF	0.81%	÷0.888	×1.300	1.19%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 78).

Result: FIP 2.24 → 3.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 22 IPFIP 4.48 → 5.52 (+1.04)K% 20.0% → 15.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.00%	—	×0.770	15.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.36%	—	×1.150	18.82%
HR / BF /BF	1.82%	÷0.935	×1.250	2.43%

Result: FIP 4.48 → 5.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 27 IPFIP 4.75 → 5.79 (+1.04)K% 15.0% → 11.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.04%	—	×0.770	11.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.54%	—	×1.150	19.02%
HR / BF /BF	1.50%	÷0.817	×1.250	2.30%

Result: FIP 4.75 → 5.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AJupiter Hammerheads · 23 IPFIP 2.89 → 4.09 (+1.20)K% 30.0% → 22.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.00%	—	×0.740	22.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.00%	—	×1.180	16.52%
HR / BF /BF	1.00%	÷0.924	×1.300	1.41%

Result: FIP 2.89 → 4.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Holt Jones (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.29	21.9%	15.6%	3.1%	—	5.37	21.7%	6.6%	92	+0.08	—	—	—
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	85
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	80
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	80
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	79
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	79
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	78
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	78
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	78
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	78
Jeff Ames R 2019 · 4.45 FIP	28	SU	4.45	25.6%	16.8%	2.5%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	272	77
Gregory Infante R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	28	SU	4.54	16.9%	15.7%	1.6%	.290	3.78	21.3%	12.7%	181	-0.76	2.97	230	76
Jose Veras R 2009 · 5.13 FIP	28	SU	5.13	17.8%	12.4%	3.6%	.228	3.57	26.3%	14.0%	186	-1.56	3.37	422	76
Kyle Dowdy R 2021 · 5.16 FIP	28	SU	5.16	20.3%	14.6%	3.5%	.282	3.54	21.6%	9.6%	116	-1.62	2.98	606	76
Travis Hissong R 2017 · 4.17 FIP	26	SU	4.17	20.3%	13.5%	2.0%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	122	76
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	75
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	28	SU	4.43	23.3%	13.6%	2.9%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	2.64	315	75
Beck Wheeler R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	15.3%	12.2%	3.7%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	173	75
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	75
Chris Jefferson R 2024 · 5.65 FIP	27	SU	5.65	16.4%	13.6%	4.0%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	140	75
Dario Beltre R 2019 · 4.24 FIP	26	SU	4.24	21.4%	17.0%	1.4%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	2.71	110	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	54	21.8%	15.4%	1.24	5.29
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*