Holt Jones
P
Beloit Sky Carp
+0.0
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'7" / 235 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.78
FIP4.78
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.7%
BB%13.4%
K-BB%8.3%
IP41
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL2020
CMD3535
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | 5 | 0 | 9 | 44 | 11 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 8.00 | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | 10 | 8 | 34 | 162 | 39 | 25 | 5 | 17.9% | 19.5% | 4.7% | 4.72 | 6.65 | -0.7 |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | 20 | 10 | 55 | 256 | 55 | 38 | 4 | 16.1% | 17.9% | 1.9% | 6.09 | 5.05 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | 39 | 0 | 50 | 233 | 59 | 30 | 3 | 19.0% | 15.0% | 1.8% | 4.68 | 4.39 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 26 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | 34 | 0 | 47 | 236 | 62 | 41 | 2 | 20.2% | 20.0% | 1.0% | 4.75 | 4.50 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | 4 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | 3.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | MIA | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 37 | 28 | 5 | 21.1% | 16.1% | 2.6% | 5.17 | 5.17 | -0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 44 | 188 | 39 | 29 | 6 | 20.5% | 15.4% | 2.9% | 5.02 | 4.82 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 40 | — | 40 | 171 | 36 | 26 | 5 | 21.2% | 15.4% | 2.7% | 5.10 | 5.11 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 40 | — | 40 | 167 | 36 | 25 | 5 | 21.3% | 15.0% | 2.7% | 5.07 | 5.10 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 38 | — | 38 | 162 | 34 | 24 | 5 | 21.2% | 14.8% | 2.8% | 5.08 | 5.12 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 37 | — | 37 | 157 | 33 | 23 | 5 | 21.0% | 14.8% | 2.9% | 5.13 | 5.17 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 36 | — | 36 | 150 | 31 | 23 | 4 | 20.7% | 15.0% | 3.0% | 5.21 | 5.26 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 34 | — | 34 | 144 | 29 | 22 | 4 | 20.4% | 15.2% | 3.1% | 5.30 | 5.36 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | MIA | 32 | — | 32 | 136 | 27 | 21 | 4 | 20.1% | 15.3% | 3.2% | 5.40 | 5.47 | -0.2 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | MIA | 30 | — | 30 | 128 | 25 | 20 | 4 | 19.7% | 15.6% | 3.3% | 5.51 | 5.59 | -0.2 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | MIA | 28 | — | 28 | 120 | 23 | 19 | 4 | 19.3% | 15.8% | 3.4% | 5.64 | 5.72 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 112 | 18 | 198 | 945 | 175 | 165 | 20 | 18.6% | 17.4% | 2.1% | 5.22 | 4.91 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 113 | 18 | 200 | 953 | 176 | 166 | 20 | 18.6% | 17.4% | 2.1% | 5.22 | 4.91 | +0.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Holt Jones (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.17 | 21.1% | 16.1% | 2.6% | — | 5.11 | 21.2% | 6.1% | 118 | -0.06 | — | — | — |
| Spencer Bivens R 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.1% | .265 | 3.87 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.98 | 3.45 | 315 | 87 |
| Theo Denlinger R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.34 | 20.2% | 16.4% | 1.6% | .266 | 4.24 | 15.3% | 9.9% | 41 | -0.10 | 2.90 | 140 | 86 |
| Derek Eitel R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.34 | 18.1% | 13.9% | 1.8% | .338 | 4.29 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 113 | -0.05 | 4.00 | 138 | 86 |
| Cole McDonald R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.16 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 3.8% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.84 | 153 | 85 |
| Preston Johnson R 2024 · 5.12 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.12 | 21.1% | 17.2% | 2.9% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.94 | 104 | 85 |
| Mason Vinyard R 2025 · 4.41 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.41 | 21.8% | 14.5% | 2.4% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 154 | 85 |
| Gregory Infante R 2027 · 4.55 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.55 | 16.9% | 15.7% | 1.6% | .290 | 3.80 | 21.3% | 12.7% | 181 | -0.75 | 2.97 | 230 | 84 |
| Grant Black R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.46 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +1.00 | 4.46 | 215 | 84 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.9% | .355 | 4.49 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | -0.08 | 3.70 | 187 | 82 |
| Armando Rivero R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.26 | 18.7% | 13.5% | 1.9% | .256 | 2.69 | 32.9% | 19.8% | 68 | -1.57 | 2.69 | 125 | 82 |
| Joe Colón J R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 82 |
| Sean Harney R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.34 | 16.9% | 14.8% | 1.4% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 123 | 82 |
| Haden Erbe R 2025 · 5.24 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.24 | 17.8% | 17.3% | 2.6% | .240 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.24 | 116 | 81 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2029 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 80 |
| Nolan Riggs R 2024 · 4.54 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.54 | 20.7% | 14.0% | 2.6% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.36 | 132 | 80 |
| Kevin Lenik R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.90 | 21.7% | 14.9% | 3.2% | .205 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.00 | 107 | 80 |
| Jake Haberer R 2026 · 5.24 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.24 | 24.3% | 16.0% | 4.0% | .324 | 5.10 | 16.4% | 0.9% | 62 | -0.14 | 3.46 | 183 | 79 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2026 · 5.60 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.60 | 16.4% | 13.6% | 3.9% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 140 | 79 |
| Nick Ernst R 2024 · 5.04 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.04 | 21.9% | 14.6% | 3.5% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 117 | 79 |
| Jake Gilbert R 2024 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.65 | 18.2% | 16.2% | 1.9% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 103 | 79 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.