Holt Jones
P
Beloit Sky Carp
Age 27
RHP
6'7" / 235 lbs
A+
2026 ROS PROJECTION39 act + 60 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 149140vR 131
ERA5.81
FIP5.81
K%19.0%
BB%19.7%
K-BB%-0.7%
ROS IP60
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 99 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 5 | 0 | 9 | 44 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 1.8 | 25.0% | 9.1% | 15.9% | 0.0% | 8.00 | 2.14 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 5 | 0 | 9 | 44 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 1.8 | 25.0% | 9.1% | 15.9% | 0.0% | 8.00 | 1.99 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 8 | 34 | 162 | 39 | 25 | 5 | 80% | 3.4 | 17.9% | 19.5% | -1.7% | 4.9% | 4.72 | 6.75 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 8 | 34 | 162 | 39 | 25 | 5 | 80% | 3.4 | 24.1% | 15.4% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 4.72 | 4.91 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 20 | 10 | 55 | 256 | 55 | 38 | 4 | 50% | 2.7 | 16.1% | 17.9% | -1.8% | 2.3% | 6.09 | 5.30 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 20 | 10 | 55 | 256 | 55 | 38 | 4 | 50% | 2.7 | 21.5% | 14.8% | 6.6% | 1.6% | 6.09 | 4.12 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 50 | 233 | 59 | 30 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 19.0% | 15.0% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 4.68 | 4.46 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 50 | 233 | 59 | 30 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 25.3% | 12.9% | 12.4% | 1.3% | 4.68 | 3.32 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | 34 | 0 | 47 | 236 | 62 | 41 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 20.2% | 20.0% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 4.75 | 4.50 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | 34 | 0 | 47 | 236 | 62 | 41 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 26.3% | 17.4% | 8.9% | 0.8% | 4.75 | 3.63 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 28 | 0 | 39 | 167 | 51 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 24.2% | 11.4% | 12.7% | 3.0% | 3.89 | 4.13 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | MIA | 57 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 48 | 49 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.0% | 19.7% | -0.7% | 2.6% | 5.81 | 5.81 | -0.9 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | MIA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.0% | 19.7% | -0.7% | 2.6% | 5.81 | 5.81 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 99 | 418 | 99 | 66 | 11 | — | — | 23.6% | 15.9% | 7.7% | 2.5% | 5.05 | 5.14 | +0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 19.0% | 19.7% | -0.7% | 2.6% | 5.81 | 5.43 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 47 | 46 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.3% | 18.8% | 0.5% | 2.8% | 5.71 | 5.75 | -0.8 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 52 | 0 | 55 | 233 | 45 | 43 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.4% | 18.3% | 1.1% | 2.9% | 5.70 | 5.77 | -0.8 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 49 | 0 | 52 | 219 | 42 | 40 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.2% | 18.1% | 1.1% | 3.1% | 5.78 | 5.88 | -0.8 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 21 | 0 | 22 | 93 | 18 | 17 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.3% | 18.8% | 0.5% | 2.8% | 5.71 | 5.75 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 30 | 0 | 31 | 131 | 25 | 24 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.4% | 18.3% | 1.1% | 2.9% | 5.70 | 5.77 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 33 | 0 | 35 | 148 | 28 | 27 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.2% | 18.1% | 1.1% | 3.1% | 5.78 | 5.88 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 85 | 0 | 89 | 375 | 72 | 69 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.3% | 18.4% | 0.9% | 3.0% | 5.74 | 5.43 | -0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 162 | 155 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.3% | 18.4% | 0.9% | 3.0% | 5.74 | 5.43 | -0.1 | ||
| Career | — | 136 | 18 | 235 | 1098 | 214 | 183 | 26 | 13% | 1.7 | 19.5% | 16.6% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 5.02 | 4.86 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 116 | 15 | 200 | 936 | 182 | 156 | 22 | 13% | 1.7 | 19.5% | 16.6% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 5.02 | 4.86 | +1.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Holt Jones (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.81 | 19.0% | 19.7% | 2.6% | — | 5.80 | 19.3% | 0.9% | 165 | -0.01 | — | — | — |
| Trey Haley R 2025 · 5.03 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.03 | 14.0% | 16.5% | 1.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.14 | 111 | 81 |
| Mitchell Stumpo R 2026 · 6.16 FIP | 27 | SU | 6.16 | 20.6% | 21.8% | 3.7% | .368 | 4.35 | 22.6% | 15.5% | 34 | -1.81 | 3.88 | 158 | 81 |
| Julian Arballo R 2026 · 5.47 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.47 | 15.1% | 13.8% | 3.5% | .335 | 4.38 | 12.6% | 0.6% | 116 | -1.09 | 4.28 | 214 | 81 |
| Haden Erbe R 2025 · 5.49 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.49 | 17.8% | 17.3% | 3.1% | .240 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.17 | 116 | 80 |
| Zac Leigh R 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.18 | 17.1% | 19.3% | 2.0% | .226 | 4.66 | 23.1% | 7.6% | 33 | -0.52 | 3.72 | 197 | 80 |
| Antonio Menendez R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.85 | 19.1% | 16.2% | 2.4% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.97 | 231 | 80 |
| Stevie Branche R 2026 · 5.82 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.82 | 19.8% | 20.5% | 3.3% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 162 | 79 |
| Ryan Sublette R 2025 · 4.77 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.77 | 19.0% | 15.8% | 2.3% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 203 | 79 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 78 |
| Michael Hobbs R 2025 · 4.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.70 | 21.2% | 19.2% | 1.7% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 184 | 78 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.37 | 16.4% | 13.6% | 3.5% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 140 | 78 |
| Jordan Gore R 2026 · 5.47 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.47 | 15.2% | 18.5% | 2.4% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 78 |
| Jacob Morris R 2024 · 4.72 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.72 | 18.7% | 21.1% | 1.0% | .236 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 102 | 77 |
| Mitchell Osnowitz R 2025 · 5.36 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.36 | 16.5% | 18.7% | 2.3% | .366 | 5.45 | 19.2% | 7.7% | 42 | +0.09 | 4.47 | 132 | 77 |
| Tanner Jacobson R 2024 · 4.62 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.62 | 21.4% | 19.3% | 1.6% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 168 | 77 |
| Hunter Dollander R 2025 · 6.73 FIP | 26 | SU | 6.73 | 17.6% | 18.3% | 5.1% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 106 | 77 |
| Austin Smith R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.89 | 19.0% | 20.2% | 1.5% | .233 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 134 | 77 |
| Brian Glowicki R 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.30 | 18.2% | 15.9% | 3.1% | .229 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.36 | 189 | 77 |
| Daniel Harper R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.08 | 16.6% | 18.8% | 1.8% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.27 | 128 | 77 |
| Nolan Riggs R 2024 · 4.61 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.61 | 20.7% | 14.0% | 2.7% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.36 | 132 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 56 | 19.2% | 18.8% | 1.11 | 5.75 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |