Holt Jones — OGILVIE

Holt Jones P Pensacola Blue Wahoos

Age 27 RHP 6'7" / 235 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION73 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 145137vR 128

ERA5.87

FIP5.87

K%19.0%

BB%20.2%

K-BB%-1.2%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 78 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL2020

CMD3535

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	0	9	44	11	4	0	0%	1.8	25.0%	9.1%	15.9%	0.0%	8.00	2.14	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	0	9	44	11	4	0	0%	1.8	25.0%	9.1%	15.9%	0.0%	8.00	1.99	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	8	34	162	39	25	5	80%	3.4	17.9%	19.5%	-1.7%	4.7%	4.72	6.63	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	8	34	162	39	25	5	80%	3.4	24.1%	15.4%	8.6%	3.1%	4.72	4.91	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	10	55	256	55	38	4	50%	2.7	16.1%	17.9%	-1.8%	1.9%	6.09	5.06	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	10	55	256	55	38	4	50%	2.7	16.1%	17.9%	-1.8%	1.9%	6.09	5.06	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	20	10	55	256	55	38	4	50%	2.7	21.5%	14.8%	6.6%	1.6%	6.09	4.12	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	50	233	59	30	3	0%	1.3	19.0%	15.0%	4.1%	1.8%	4.68	4.36	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	50	233	59	30	3	0%	1.3	19.0%	15.0%	4.1%	1.8%	4.68	4.36	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	50	233	59	30	3	0%	1.3	25.3%	12.9%	12.4%	1.3%	4.68	3.32	—
2025	26	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	34	0	47	236	62	41	2	0%	1.4	20.2%	20.0%	0.3%	1.1%	4.75	4.50	—
2025	26	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	34	0	47	236	62	41	2	0%	1.4	20.2%	20.0%	0.3%	1.1%	4.75	4.50	—
2025	26	A+ RAW	Beloit Sky Carp	34	0	47	236	62	41	2	0%	1.4	26.3%	17.4%	8.9%	0.8%	4.75	3.63	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	46	0	73	306	91	29	8	0%	1.6	25.0%	10.6%	14.4%	1.9%	4.05	3.37	—
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	46	0	73	306	91	29	8	0%	1.6	25.0%	10.6%	14.4%	1.9%	4.05	3.37	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	A+ RAW	MIA	15	0	19	84	23	8	3	0%	1.3	27.4%	9.5%	17.9%	3.6%	4.26	3.95	—
2026	27	AA RAW	MIA	25	0	45	178	59	17	1	0%	1.8	33.1%	9.6%	23.6%	0.6%	2.82	1.82	—
2026	27	AAA RAW	MIA	6	0	10	44	9	4	4	0%	1.6	20.5%	9.1%	11.4%	9.1%	9.31	7.51	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	MIA	5	0	5	21	4	4	1	0%	1.0	19.0%	20.2%	-1.2%	2.6%	5.87	5.87	-0.1
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	MIA	—	—	78	327	95	33	9	—	—	29.0%	10.2%	18.9%	2.6%	4.17	3.53	+1.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	MIA	55	0	58	244	47	47	7	0%	1.0	19.3%	19.3%	0.0%	2.7%	5.77	5.80	-0.8
2028	29	MLB MLE	MIA	52	0	55	233	45	44	7	0%	1.1	19.4%	18.8%	0.6%	2.9%	5.76	5.82	-0.8
2027	28	MLB CTX	MIA	21	0	22	93	18	18	3	0%	1.0	19.3%	19.3%	0.0%	2.7%	5.77	5.80	-0.3
2028	29	MLB CTX	MIA	30	0	31	131	25	25	4	0%	1.0	19.4%	18.8%	0.6%	2.9%	5.76	5.82	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		50	0	52	221	43	42	6	0%	1.0	19.4%	19.0%	0.4%	2.8%	5.76	5.43	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	164	160	23	0%	1.1	19.4%	19.0%	0.4%	2.8%	5.76	5.43	-2.1
Career	—	MLE		154	18	269	1237	250	196	25	12%	1.7	20.2%	15.9%	4.3%	2.0%	4.92	4.51	-1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		115	13	200	921	186	146	19	12%	1.7	20.2%	15.9%	4.3%	2.0%	4.92	4.51	-2.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Holt Jones (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.87	19.0%	20.2%	2.6%	—	5.81	19.4%	0.3%	113	-0.06	—	—	—
Trey Haley R 2016 · 4.98 FIP	26	SU	4.98	14.0%	16.5%	1.8%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.14	111	81
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	81
Ray Gaither R 2023 · 4.89 FIP	25	SU	4.89	18.1%	16.4%	2.3%	.278	4.19	17.7%	6.6%	90	-0.70	3.90	164	80
Mitchell Stumpo R 2023 · 6.35 FIP	27	SU	6.35	20.6%	20.8%	4.3%	.368	4.77	22.6%	15.5%	34	-1.58	3.97	158	79
Jake Gozzo R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	26	SU	5.04	16.2%	17.6%	2.0%	.227	4.32	15.6%	-1.3%	32	-0.72	4.32	162	78
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	78
Jacob Morris R 2016 · 4.77 FIP	25	SU	4.77	18.7%	21.1%	1.0%	.236	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	102	78
Jordan Gore R 2022 · 5.37 FIP	27	SU	5.37	15.2%	18.5%	2.2%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	113	78
Mitchell Osnowitz R 2017 · 5.30 FIP	26	SU	5.30	16.5%	18.7%	2.2%	.366	5.43	19.2%	7.7%	42	+0.13	4.54	132	77
Nelson Gonzalez R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	27	SU	5.00	15.3%	13.7%	2.6%	.239	5.79	17.4%	6.7%	96	+0.79	3.42	258	77
Zack Leban R 2023 · 4.82 FIP	27	SU	4.82	19.8%	18.8%	1.8%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	123	77
Jeff Soptic R 2016 · 5.52 FIP	25	SU	5.52	13.6%	15.3%	3.0%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	5.30	124	76
Matt Lollis R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	25	SU	4.95	19.2%	14.5%	3.0%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	120	76
Hunter Dollander R 2023 · 6.77 FIP	26	SU	6.77	17.6%	18.3%	5.2%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	106	76
Brian Glowicki R 2022 · 5.39 FIP	27	SU	5.39	18.2%	15.9%	3.3%	.229	—	—	—	—	—	2.31	189	76
Cre Finfrock R 2022 · 6.31 FIP	26	SU	6.31	16.7%	25.2%	2.6%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	103	76
Mike Hepple R 2016 · 5.75 FIP	26	SU	5.75	11.1%	18.5%	2.3%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	116	76
Connor Law R 2021 · 6.15 FIP	27	SU	6.15	16.2%	17.2%	4.1%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	110	76
Fernando Baez R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	24.3%	21.2%	3.0%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	129	76
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	57	19.2%	19.4%	1.07	5.80
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99