Cade Kuehler — OGILVIE

Cade Kuehler P Rome Emperors

Age 24 RHP 6'0" / 215 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.1 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION109 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.86

FIP4.86

K%20.2%

BB%11.7%

K-BB%8.6%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 117 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5560

CMD3040

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$3M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$3M	—	—	—
Totals		$2M		$5M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	2	2	7	26	8	4	0	100%	3.5	30.8%	15.4%	15.4%	0.0%	0.00	2.45	—
2023	21	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	2	2	7	26	8	4	0	100%	3.5	30.8%	15.4%	15.4%	0.0%	0.00	2.45	—
2023	21	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	2	2	7	26	8	4	0	100%	3.5	30.8%	15.4%	15.4%	0.0%	0.00	2.53	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	12	53	231	48	24	4	100%	4.4	15.5%	11.2%	4.3%	1.8%	3.74	4.22	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	12	53	231	48	24	4	100%	4.4	15.5%	11.2%	4.3%	1.8%	3.74	4.22	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	12	53	231	48	24	4	100%	4.4	20.8%	10.4%	10.4%	1.7%	3.74	3.63	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Rome Emperors	25	24	109	494	78	62	25	96%	4.4	12.2%	14.4%	-2.3%	6.3%	6.34	7.37	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Rome Emperors	25	24	109	494	78	62	25	96%	4.4	12.2%	14.4%	-2.3%	6.3%	6.34	7.37	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	ATL	25	24	109	494	78	62	25	96%	4.4	15.8%	12.6%	3.2%	5.1%	6.34	6.13	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	ATL	1	1	8	32	6	4	1	100%	7.6	20.2%	11.7%	8.6%	2.9%	4.86	4.86	+0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	ATL	—	—	117	526	84	66	26	—	—	16.1%	12.5%	3.6%	4.9%	6.24	7.21	-2.9
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	ATL	22	22	126	534	116	58	16	100%	5.7	21.8%	10.9%	10.9%	2.9%	4.70	4.63	+0.4
2028	26	MLB MLE	ATL	23	23	138	584	133	62	17	100%	6.0	22.7%	10.7%	12.1%	2.9%	4.58	4.52	+0.6
2029	27	MLB MLE	ATL	23	23	136	575	131	61	17	100%	5.9	22.7%	10.6%	12.1%	3.0%	4.55	4.54	+0.6
2030	28	MLB MLE	ATL	22	22	132	558	126	60	17	100%	6.0	22.5%	10.7%	11.9%	3.1%	4.59	4.62	+0.4
2031	29	MLB MLE	ATL	21	21	126	533	119	58	17	100%	6.0	22.3%	10.9%	11.4%	3.2%	4.69	4.75	+0.2
2032	30	MLB MLE	ATL	20	20	119	501	110	56	17	100%	5.9	21.9%	11.2%	10.8%	3.4%	4.83	4.93	-0.0
2033	31	MLB MLE	ATL	18	18	111	467	101	54	17	100%	6.2	21.6%	11.5%	10.0%	3.7%	5.01	5.13	-0.3
2027	25	MLB CTX	ATL	9	9	54	228	50	25	7	100%	6.0	21.8%	10.9%	10.9%	2.9%	4.70	4.63	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	ATL	15	15	92	388	88	41	11	100%	6.1	22.7%	10.7%	12.1%	2.9%	4.58	4.52	+0.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	ATL	18	18	105	443	101	47	13	100%	5.8	22.7%	10.6%	12.1%	3.0%	4.55	4.54	+0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	ATL	18	18	111	469	106	50	14	100%	6.2	22.5%	10.7%	11.9%	3.1%	4.59	4.62	+0.4
2031	29	MLB CTX	ATL	18	18	111	469	105	51	15	100%	6.2	22.3%	10.9%	11.4%	3.2%	4.69	4.75	+0.2
2032	30	MLB CTX	ATL	18	18	107	452	99	51	16	100%	5.9	21.9%	11.2%	10.8%	3.4%	4.83	4.93	-0.0
2033	31	MLB CTX	ATL	17	17	101	426	92	49	16	100%	5.9	21.6%	11.5%	10.0%	3.7%	5.01	5.13	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		114	114	681	2877	640	314	92	100%	6.0	22.2%	10.9%	11.3%	3.2%	4.71	4.36	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	188	92	27	100%	6.0	22.2%	10.9%	11.3%	3.2%	4.71	4.36	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		39	38	169	751	104	101	35	97%	4.3	13.8%	13.5%	0.3%	4.7%	5.26	6.23	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	45	200	887	123	120	42	97%	4.3	13.8%	13.5%	0.3%	4.7%	5.26	6.23	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cade Kuehler (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.86	20.2%	11.7%	2.9%	—	4.56	22.4%	11.7%	401	-0.30	—	—	—
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	90
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.26	15.3%	5.8%	168	+0.83	4.43	239	87
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.53	340	87
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	86
Emerson Hancock R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP	4.30	21.1%	10.2%	3.1%	.288	4.33	18.3%	11.3%	428	+0.03	3.24	669	86
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.25	19.8%	10.6%	240	+0.00	4.16	350	85
Justin Armbruester R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SP	4.44	17.3%	9.6%	2.9%	.271	5.30	20.4%	9.9%	135	+0.86	1.49	373	85
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	84
Bryce Osmond R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	12.4%	4.4%	.294	7.13	16.7%	3.8%	80	+1.57	5.56	177	84
Jarred Cosart R 2015 · 5.07 FIP	25	SP	5.07	15.2%	10.8%	3.4%	.274	4.94	13.1%	-0.5%	132	-0.13	4.10	218	83
Brandon Birdsell R 2023 · 3.91 FIP	23	SP	3.91	17.1%	8.3%	2.2%	.266	4.05	19.2%	13.6%	154	+0.14	3.87	262	83
Austin Love R 2022 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP	4.34	20.6%	10.6%	3.0%	.358	3.58	22.1%	9.7%	56	-0.76	3.58	236	83
Will Warren R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	24	SP	4.11	22.3%	10.1%	2.9%	.287	4.00	23.6%	15.4%	437	-0.11	3.82	695	83
Nick Nastrini R 2023 · 4.03 FIP	23	SP	4.03	22.7%	11.5%	2.5%	.288	6.00	18.5%	2.7%	168	+1.97	4.03	412	83
Paxton Schultz R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	24	SP-	5.27	17.5%	12.2%	3.8%	.293	4.36	21.3%	11.3%	274	-0.91	3.90	538	82
Zach Messinger R 2023 · 5.26 FIP	23	SP	5.26	20.4%	14.3%	3.8%	.278	3.96	17.9%	8.2%	286	-1.30	3.70	466	82
Noah Davis R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	24	SP	3.76	19.4%	11.8%	1.5%	.264	4.96	18.5%	8.1%	312	+1.20	3.76	594	82
Will Rudy R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.299	5.28	17.4%	8.6%	113	+0.52	4.76	194	82
Ty Madden R 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	24.0%	11.2%	3.7%	.304	4.87	20.6%	11.1%	207	+0.35	4.52	448	81
Blake Beers R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SP	4.61	18.9%	9.0%	3.6%	.298	4.95	17.6%	8.5%	323	+0.34	4.35	416	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.9	122	22.1%	11.0%	1.22	4.71
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45