Khristian Curtis

P Altoona Curve

Age 25 RHP 6'5" / 215 lbs AA

Overview

AARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	APIT	18	16	75	4.06	4.23	25.4%	12.2%	—	K 18.8% · BB 14.4% · FIP 5.48
2025	23	MIX2 levels	27	26	111	3.90	3.61	25.1%	9.7%	—	K 19.1% · BB 11.3% · FIP 4.60
2026	24	MIX3 levels	28	17	107	4.86	4.10	26.1%	12.9%	1.7	K 22.1% · BB 13.0% · FIP 4.65
2027PROJ	25	MLBPIT	16	16	93	4.67	4.99	21.6%	13.2%	0.4
2028PROJ82% MLB	26	MLBPIT	14	14	82	4.77	4.88	21.9%	12.7%	0.5
2029PROJ87% MLB	27	MLBPIT	13	13	77	4.81	4.87	21.9%	12.3%	0.5

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs64

FB Velo62

K%10

Form7.62 ERA (proj 4.67) · K 13.3% (proj 21.6%) · BB 15.0% (proj 13.2%) ▼▼ last 60d · 13 IP through Oct 27

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 5.5, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 81%

CompsJake Lee (age 24) · Alfredo Figaro (age 25) · Carlos Torres (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.67

FIP4.99

K%21.6%

BB%13.2%

K-BB%8.3%

Proj IP131

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 131 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6295.4

Whiff%

p3723.5%

p1014.9%

xwOBA vs

p640.298

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	18	16	75	319	81	39	10	89%	4.2	18.8%	14.4%	4.4%	3.9%	4.06	5.48	—
2024	22	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	18	16	75	319	81	39	10	89%	4.2	18.8%	14.4%	4.4%	3.9%	4.06	5.48	—
2024	22	A RAW	Bradenton Marauders	18	16	75	319	81	39	10	89%	4.2	25.4%	12.2%	13.2%	3.1%	4.06	4.23	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	111	474	119	46	12	96%	4.1	19.1%	11.3%	7.8%	3.1%	3.90	4.60	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	111	474	119	46	12	96%	4.1	19.1%	11.3%	7.8%	3.1%	3.90	4.60	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	26	111	474	119	46	12	96%	4.1	25.1%	9.7%	15.4%	2.5%	3.90	3.61	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	17	107	464	121	60	13	61%	3.8	22.1%	13.0%	9.1%	3.2%	4.86	4.65	+0.9
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	17	107	464	121	60	13	61%	3.8	22.1%	13.0%	9.1%	3.2%	4.86	4.65	+0.9
2026	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	17	107	464	121	60	13	61%	3.8	26.1%	12.9%	13.1%	2.8%	4.86	4.10	+1.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			6	0	21	87	13	12	1	0%	3.5	14.9%	13.8%	1.1%	1.1%	4.71	4.20	+0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	PIT	16	16	93	393	85	52	12	100%	5.8	21.6%	13.2%	8.3%	3.0%	4.67	4.99	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	PIT	17	17	101	426	93	54	13	100%	5.9	21.9%	12.7%	9.3%	3.0%	4.77	4.88	+0.6
2029	27	MLB MLE	PIT	15	15	89	375	82	46	11	100%	5.9	21.9%	12.3%	9.6%	3.1%	4.81	4.87	+0.5
2030	28	MLB MLE	PIT	14	14	82	345	75	42	11	100%	5.8	21.8%	12.3%	9.5%	3.2%	4.87	4.93	+0.4
2031	29	MLB MLE	PIT	12	12	74	314	67	39	10	100%	6.2	21.2%	12.4%	8.8%	3.3%	4.98	5.07	+0.3
2032	30	MLB MLE	PIT	11	11	67	282	58	36	10	100%	6.1	20.5%	12.7%	7.8%	3.5%	5.16	5.28	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	PIT	14	14	82	346	76	44	10	100%	5.9	21.9%	12.7%	9.3%	3.0%	4.77	4.88	+0.5
2029	27	MLB CTX	PIT	13	13	77	325	71	40	10	100%	5.9	21.9%	12.3%	9.6%	3.1%	4.81	4.87	+0.5
2030	28	MLB CTX	PIT	12	12	73	308	67	38	10	100%	6.1	21.8%	12.3%	9.5%	3.2%	4.87	4.93	+0.4
2031	29	MLB CTX	PIT	11	11	68	287	61	36	9	100%	6.2	21.2%	12.4%	8.8%	3.3%	4.98	5.07	+0.3
2032	30	MLB CTX	PIT	10	10	62	262	54	33	9	100%	6.2	20.5%	12.7%	7.8%	3.5%	5.16	5.28	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		66	60	384	1619	343	203	50	91%	5.8	21.2%	12.5%	8.6%	3.1%	4.89	4.59	+3.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	32	200	844	179	106	26	91%	5.8	21.2%	12.5%	8.6%	3.1%	4.89	4.59	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		73	59	293	1257	253	160	42	81%	4.0	20.1%	12.7%	7.4%	3.3%	4.30	4.84	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	40	200	857	172	109	29	81%	4.0	20.1%	12.7%	7.4%	3.3%	4.30	4.84	+1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAltoona Curve · 53 IPFIP 3.69 → 4.63 (+0.94)K% 29.1% → 23.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.13%	—	×0.810	23.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.87%	—	×1.100	11.96%
HR / BF /BF	3.04%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.65%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.69 → 4.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 33 IPFIP 4.59 → 4.91 (+0.32)K% 27.9% → 24.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.89%	—	×0.860	23.99%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.65%	—	×0.900	14.08%
HR / BF /BF	3.40%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.74%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.59 → 4.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 109 IPFIP 3.66 → 4.60 (+0.94)K% 24.8% → 19.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.79%	—	×0.770	19.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.83%	—	×1.150	11.30%
HR / BF /BF	2.56%	÷1.048	×1.250	3.06%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 110).

Result: FIP 3.66 → 4.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ABradenton Marauders · 75 IPFIP 4.23 → 5.48 (+1.25)K% 25.4% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.39%	—	×0.740	18.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.23%	—	×1.180	14.43%
HR / BF /BF	3.13%	÷1.046	×1.300	3.90%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 109).

Result: FIP 4.23 → 5.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Khristian Curtis (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.89	21.9%	9.4%	271	-0.10	—	—	—
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	81
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	81
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	78
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2014 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	20.5%	13.3%	2.3%	.208	3.88	19.8%	10.2%	210	-0.44	3.22	242	78
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.51	17.7%	5.4%	170	-0.51	3.97	187	78
Andrew Politi R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP-	5.21	21.0%	12.2%	4.3%	.320	4.04	22.9%	13.8%	138	-1.17	3.38	292	76
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	76
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	76
Luis Quiñones R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	25	SP	4.77	23.5%	17.5%	2.6%	.289	4.80	22.4%	10.8%	160	+0.03	3.69	326	76
Britt Reames R 2000 · 4.49 FIP	26	SP	4.49	18.2%	12.9%	2.4%	.230	4.35	21.9%	11.5%	163	-0.14	3.76	204	76
Joel Hanrahan R 2007 · 5.58 FIP	25	SP	5.58	17.4%	15.4%	3.6%	.318	3.06	27.8%	18.1%	218	-2.52	2.08	397	76
Michael Knorr R 2024 · 5.56 FIP	24	SP-	5.56	21.6%	12.5%	4.9%	.314	4.95	22.3%	9.7%	83	-0.61	4.30	181	75
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	74
Ramon Ramirez R 2008 · 4.31 FIP	25	SP-	4.31	20.0%	10.5%	2.9%	.200	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	182	74
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	74
Orlando Rodriguez R 2021 · 4.54 FIP	25	SP-	4.54	20.8%	10.1%	3.5%	.380	4.51	19.3%	7.9%	101	-0.03	4.40	119	73
Ryan Jensen R 2001 · 5.03 FIP	25	SP-	5.03	13.5%	13.0%	2.6%	.285	4.82	13.4%	5.2%	185	-0.21	4.35	253	73
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	72
Denny Bautista R 2006 · 4.71 FIP	25	SP-	4.71	13.9%	10.8%	2.6%	.298	4.58	17.5%	3.3%	74	-0.13	3.38	238	72
Jared Lyons R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	23	SP	4.72	22.1%	14.4%	3.0%	.258	4.13	17.6%	8.7%	173	-0.59	3.28	265	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	81	21.3%	12.7%	1.19	4.84
David West ('88-'98, 1 WAR*)	2.8	71	22.1%*	12.1%*	1.28*	4.79*
Bob Gibson ('83-'87, -0 WAR*)	1.3	67	20.4%*	14.0%*	1.14*	4.52*
Tim Birtsas ('85-'90, -0 WAR*)	1.6	82	21.4%*	11.7%*	1.31*	4.63*
Britt Reames ('06)	1.1	73	20.7%	12.0%	1.32	5.28
Rob Tejeda ('05-'11, 3 WAR*)	2.2	74	21.8%*	12.6%*	1.00*	4.23*
Robinson Tejeda ('11)	2.2	74	19.1%	12.6%	0.96	4.42