Khristian Curtis
P
Altoona Curve
Age 24
RHP
6'5" / 215 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.7 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION74 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130121vR 112
ERA4.93
FIP4.93
K%20.3%
BB%11.9%
K-BB%8.4%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 139 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | A | Bradenton Marauders | 18 | 16 | 75 | 319 | 81 | 39 | 10 | 89% | 4.2 | 18.8% | 14.4% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 4.06 | 5.39 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Bradenton Marauders | 18 | 16 | 75 | 319 | 81 | 39 | 10 | 89% | 4.2 | 25.4% | 12.2% | 13.2% | 3.1% | 4.06 | 4.23 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 26 | 111 | 474 | 119 | 46 | 12 | 96% | 4.1 | 19.1% | 11.3% | 7.8% | 2.9% | 3.90 | 4.52 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 26 | 111 | 474 | 119 | 46 | 12 | 96% | 4.1 | 25.1% | 9.7% | 15.4% | 2.5% | 3.90 | 3.61 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 18 | 16 | 74 | 325 | 97 | 40 | 10 | 89% | 4.1 | 24.8% | 13.3% | 11.5% | 3.6% | 4.96 | 4.67 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | PIT | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 56 | 33 | 8 | 100% | 5.4 | 20.3% | 11.9% | 8.4% | 3.0% | 4.93 | 4.93 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | PIT | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 20.3% | 11.9% | 8.4% | 3.0% | 4.92 | 4.92 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 139 | 599 | 153 | 73 | 18 | — | — | 25.5% | 12.1% | 13.4% | 3.1% | 4.95 | 4.79 | +1.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 20.3% | 11.9% | 8.4% | 3.0% | 4.92 | 4.54 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | PIT | 23 | 23 | 132 | 559 | 118 | 60 | 17 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.1% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 3.0% | 4.78 | 4.72 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | PIT | 22 | 22 | 132 | 559 | 120 | 59 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.5% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 3.0% | 4.69 | 4.65 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | PIT | 22 | 22 | 130 | 550 | 118 | 58 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.5% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 3.1% | 4.67 | 4.67 | +1.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | PIT | 21 | 21 | 126 | 534 | 114 | 56 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.4% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 3.2% | 4.71 | 4.74 | +1.0 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | PIT | 10 | 10 | 58 | 245 | 52 | 26 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.1% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 3.0% | 4.77 | 4.71 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | PIT | 15 | 15 | 88 | 372 | 80 | 39 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.5% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 3.0% | 4.68 | 4.64 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | PIT | 17 | 17 | 101 | 426 | 92 | 45 | 13 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.5% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 3.0% | 4.66 | 4.66 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | PIT | 18 | 18 | 107 | 452 | 97 | 48 | 14 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.4% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 3.1% | 4.70 | 4.73 | +0.8 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 60 | 60 | 355 | 1501 | 321 | 159 | 46 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.4% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 3.0% | 4.70 | 4.31 | +4.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 181 | 89 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.4% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 3.0% | 4.70 | 4.31 | +2.6 | ||
| Career | — | 63 | 58 | 260 | 1118 | 231 | 143 | 37 | 92% | 4.1 | 20.7% | 12.8% | 7.9% | 3.4% | 4.25 | 4.81 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 45 | 200 | 859 | 178 | 110 | 29 | 92% | 4.1 | 20.7% | 12.8% | 7.9% | 3.4% | 4.25 | 4.81 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Khristian Curtis (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.93 | 20.3% | 11.9% | 3.0% | — | 4.68 | 21.3% | 10.7% | 395 | -0.25 | — | — | — |
| Justin Armbruester R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.43 | 18.0% | 10.5% | 2.8% | .271 | 5.94 | 20.6% | 7.6% | 119 | +1.51 | 4.43 | 358 | 87 |
| Will Warren R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.16 | 23.3% | 11.4% | 2.9% | .287 | 4.01 | 23.9% | 15.4% | 393 | -0.15 | 3.80 | 651 | 86 |
| Mason Black R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.83 | 20.1% | 10.4% | 3.8% | .304 | 5.34 | 18.0% | 6.5% | 170 | +0.51 | 3.81 | 527 | 85 |
| Alex Pham R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.85 | 22.6% | 11.1% | 2.3% | .284 | 3.63 | 23.5% | 11.8% | 79 | -0.22 | 3.48 | 331 | 85 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.87 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.3% | .300 | 4.37 | 19.6% | 9.8% | 143 | +0.50 | 3.87 | 247 | 84 |
| Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.75 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.75 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 3.4% | .242 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 119 | 84 |
| Michael Kelly R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.23 | 19.6% | 10.9% | 2.5% | .297 | 6.28 | 14.6% | -9.6% | 67 | +2.05 | 2.83 | 666 | 84 |
| Paxton Schultz R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.22 | 17.5% | 12.2% | 3.7% | .293 | 4.57 | 22.2% | 10.9% | 274 | -0.65 | 4.00 | 512 | 84 |
| Zach Fruit R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.26 | 19.3% | 14.1% | 1.8% | .258 | 4.83 | 15.4% | -0.2% | 44 | +0.57 | 4.26 | 151 | 84 |
| Austin Love R 2025 · 4.19 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.19 | 20.6% | 10.6% | 2.7% | .358 | 3.51 | 22.1% | 9.7% | 56 | -0.68 | 3.51 | 220 | 83 |
| Ian Mejia R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.36 | 18.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.88 | 16.1% | 7.3% | 157 | +0.52 | 4.04 | 402 | 83 |
| Enmanuel Pinales R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.66 | 17.9% | 11.0% | 3.0% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.64 | 321 | 82 |
| Roman Angelo R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.19 | 22.6% | 11.4% | 2.8% | .291 | 5.46 | 18.2% | 4.6% | 163 | +1.27 | 4.19 | 285 | 82 |
| Keyvius Sampson R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.11 | 16.9% | 12.2% | 1.6% | .314 | 4.66 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 181 | +0.55 | 4.11 | 316 | 82 |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.24 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.6% | .329 | 4.33 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 132 | +0.09 | 2.63 | 213 | 81 |
| Gavin Stone R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.61 | 21.9% | 10.5% | 3.7% | .309 | 4.02 | 20.0% | 13.6% | 140 | -0.59 | 2.39 | 485 | 81 |
| Riley Thompson R 2025 · 4.88 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.88 | 16.5% | 9.4% | 3.6% | .288 | 5.29 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 57 | +0.41 | 4.52 | 340 | 81 |
| Sam Highfill R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.68 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.2% | .305 | 5.95 | 18.2% | 7.9% | 55 | +1.27 | 4.68 | 161 | 81 |
| J.P. France R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.38 | 17.9% | 13.9% | 3.7% | .285 | 4.39 | 26.3% | 15.2% | 225 | -0.99 | 4.11 | 563 | 81 |
| Riley Gowens R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.02 | 22.6% | 10.3% | 4.6% | .279 | 5.06 | 21.5% | 11.8% | 160 | +0.04 | 5.01 | 282 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 130 | 21.1% | 10.8% | 1.18 | 4.76 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| Yovani Gallardo ('18) | 4 | 132 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 1.18 | 4.97 |
| Zack Godley ('20) | 6 | 94 | 22.1% | 9.5% | 1.13 | 4.86 |