Khristian Curtis

Khristian Curtis P Altoona Curve

Age 24 RHP 6'5" / 215 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.8 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION100 act + 11 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.62

FIP4.62

K%20.6%

BB%12.4%

K-BB%8.3%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 111 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$9M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF—50

CTRL—40

CMD—50

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6795.7

Whiff%

p3322.9%

p1012.3%

xwOBA vs

p370.327

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.1M	+$0.0M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Arb-1	$3M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$5M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$5M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.9M		$2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	22	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	18	16	75	319	81	39	10	89%	4.2	18.8%	14.4%	4.4%	3.9%	4.06	5.48	—
2024	22	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	18	16	75	319	81	39	10	89%	4.2	18.8%	14.4%	4.4%	3.9%	4.06	5.48	—
2024	22	A RAW	Bradenton Marauders	18	16	75	319	81	39	10	89%	4.2	25.4%	12.2%	13.2%	3.1%	4.06	4.23	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	111	474	119	46	12	96%	4.1	19.1%	11.3%	7.8%	3.1%	3.90	4.60	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	111	474	119	46	12	96%	4.1	19.1%	11.3%	7.8%	3.1%	3.90	4.60	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	26	111	474	119	46	12	96%	4.1	25.1%	9.7%	15.4%	2.5%	3.90	3.61	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			4	0	14	57	7	8	1	0%	3.5	12.3%	14.0%	-1.8%	1.8%	5.14	4.74	-0.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	26	17	100	434	115	56	13	65%	3.9	22.0%	12.9%	9.0%	3.5%	4.93	4.78	—
YTD	24	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	26	17	100	434	115	56	13	65%	3.9	22.0%	12.9%	9.0%	3.5%	4.93	4.78	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	PIT	12	12	53	230	67	25	7	100%	4.4	29.1%	10.9%	18.3%	3.0%	4.72	3.69	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	PIT	10	5	33	147	41	23	5	50%	3.3	27.9%	15.6%	12.2%	3.4%	5.18	4.59	—
2026	24	MLB RAW	PIT	4	0	14	57	7	8	1	0%	3.5	12.3%	14.0%	-1.8%	1.8%	5.14	4.80	-0.0
SO FAR	24	MLB RAW	PIT	4	0	14	57	7	8	1	0%	3.5	12.3%	14.0%	-1.8%	1.8%	5.14	4.80	-0.0
ROS	24	MLB MLE	PIT	2	2	11	46	10	6	1	100%	5.5	20.6%	12.4%	8.3%	3.1%	4.62	4.62	+0.0
ROS	24	MLB CTX	PIT	2	2	11	46	10	6	1	100%	5.5	20.6%	12.4%	8.3%	2.8%	4.49	4.49	+0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	PIT	—	—	111	480	125	62	14	—	—	25.9%	12.9%	13.1%	3.0%	4.90	4.76	+0.2
FULL	24	MLB A+C	PIT	—	—	25	106	125	62	14	—	—	118.0%	58.5%	59.5%	13.6%	21.77	7.99	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	PIT	23	23	132	559	112	63	16	100%	5.8	20.1%	11.3%	8.8%	2.9%	4.89	4.82	+0.1
2028	26	MLB MLE	PIT	22	22	132	559	116	61	16	100%	6.0	20.7%	11.0%	9.8%	2.9%	4.77	4.73	+0.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	PIT	22	22	130	550	114	60	16	100%	5.9	20.8%	10.9%	9.9%	3.0%	4.74	4.74	+0.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	PIT	21	21	126	534	110	58	16	100%	6.0	20.7%	10.9%	9.7%	3.1%	4.78	4.81	+0.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	PIT	20	20	121	510	104	57	16	100%	6.0	20.5%	11.2%	9.3%	3.2%	4.88	4.94	-0.1
2032	30	MLB MLE	PIT	19	19	114	479	96	55	16	100%	6.0	20.1%	11.5%	8.6%	3.4%	5.02	5.12	-0.3
2027	25	MLB CTX	PIT	22	22	126	532	107	60	14	100%	5.7	20.1%	11.3%	8.8%	2.7%	4.77	4.70	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	PIT	21	21	126	532	110	58	14	100%	6.0	20.7%	11.0%	9.8%	2.7%	4.65	4.61	+0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	PIT	21	21	124	524	109	57	14	100%	5.9	20.8%	10.9%	9.9%	2.8%	4.62	4.62	+0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	PIT	20	20	120	507	105	55	14	100%	6.0	20.7%	10.9%	9.7%	2.9%	4.65	4.68	+0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	PIT	19	19	115	486	99	54	15	100%	6.1	20.5%	11.2%	9.3%	3.0%	4.75	4.81	-0.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	PIT	18	18	108	456	92	52	14	100%	6.0	20.1%	11.5%	8.6%	3.2%	4.88	4.98	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		126	122	743	3134	638	351	89	97%	5.9	20.3%	11.2%	9.2%	2.8%	4.72	4.36	+4.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	33	200	844	172	95	24	97%	5.9	20.3%	11.2%	9.2%	2.8%	4.72	4.36	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		71	59	286	1227	246	156	42	83%	4.0	20.0%	12.7%	7.3%	3.4%	4.31	4.89	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	41	200	857	172	109	29	83%	4.0	20.0%	12.7%	7.3%	3.4%	4.31	4.89	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Khristian Curtis (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.01	20.3%	12.3%	3.1%	—	4.76	20.5%	9.5%	395	-0.25	—	—	—
Michael Kelly R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP-	4.22	19.6%	10.9%	2.5%	.297	6.36	14.6%	-9.6%	67	+2.14	2.77	666	85
Paxton Schultz R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	24	SP-	5.27	17.5%	12.2%	3.8%	.293	4.36	21.3%	11.3%	274	-0.91	3.90	538	85
Rafael Montero R 2016 · 4.76 FIP	25	SP-	4.76	16.6%	11.0%	3.0%	.325	3.81	23.3%	13.2%	177	-0.95	2.43	670	84
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	82
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	82
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.25	19.8%	10.6%	240	+0.00	4.16	350	82
Carson Seymour R 2023 · 3.96 FIP	24	SP-	3.96	19.8%	10.2%	2.3%	.292	4.55	18.9%	9.6%	348	+0.59	3.39	572	81
Nick Hull R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.84	17.7%	6.3%	200	+0.58	4.26	292	81
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	81
Trenton Toplikar R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP-	4.32	14.8%	10.1%	2.2%	.248	5.39	16.5%	6.4%	123	+1.07	4.32	232	80
Jeff Hoffman R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	18.7%	8.9%	2.4%	.291	4.62	20.9%	11.4%	282	+0.63	1.96	1,067	80
Luis Ortiz R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SP	4.94	16.0%	11.1%	3.2%	.297	4.08	21.5%	13.0%	224	-0.86	3.06	585	80
Justin Armbruester R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SP	4.44	17.3%	9.6%	2.9%	.271	5.30	20.4%	9.9%	135	+0.86	1.49	373	80
Brett Daniels R 2019 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	18.5%	12.1%	1.6%	.266	4.46	21.4%	7.9%	152	+0.51	3.95	270	79
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	79
Tony Dibrell R 2019 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP	4.62	16.0%	11.7%	2.5%	.302	5.67	20.5%	6.2%	58	+1.05	4.18	347	79
Matt Ruppenthal R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.32	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.18	3.74	283	79
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	79
Keyvius Sampson R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	24	SP	4.10	16.9%	12.2%	1.6%	.314	4.55	21.2%	7.9%	181	+0.45	4.10	316	78
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.4	127	20.5%	11.3%	1.19	4.87
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45