Jared Lyons — OGILVIE

Jared Lyons P Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 206 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.0 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION91 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.57

FIP4.57

K%18.9%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%8.4%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 97 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-1	$1M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-3	$7M	—	—	—
Totals		$2M		$1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	21	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	2	2	2	6	4	0	0	100%	1.0	66.7%	0.0%	66.7%	0.0%	0.00	-2.53	—
2022	21	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	2	2	2	6	4	0	0	100%	1.0	66.7%	0.0%	66.7%	0.0%	0.00	-0.90	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	13	59	267	72	37	4	76%	3.5	20.1%	15.3%	4.8%	2.1%	4.27	4.47	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	13	59	267	72	37	4	76%	3.5	20.1%	15.3%	4.8%	2.1%	4.27	4.47	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	13	59	267	72	37	4	76%	3.5	27.0%	13.9%	13.1%	1.5%	4.27	3.42	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	8	8	38	160	46	20	5	100%	4.8	22.1%	14.4%	7.8%	3.0%	2.82	4.72	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	8	8	38	160	46	20	5	100%	4.8	22.1%	14.4%	7.8%	3.0%	2.82	4.72	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	8	8	38	160	46	20	5	100%	4.8	28.7%	12.5%	16.2%	3.1%	2.82	3.96	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	15	87	358	80	32	6	65%	3.8	18.7%	9.1%	9.7%	1.1%	3.74	3.28	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	15	87	358	80	32	6	65%	3.8	18.7%	9.1%	9.7%	1.1%	3.74	3.28	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	15	87	358	80	32	6	65%	3.8	22.3%	8.9%	13.4%	1.7%	3.74	3.26	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	27	11	91	387	76	36	12	41%	3.4	16.0%	8.9%	7.2%	3.6%	4.15	4.84	—
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	27	11	91	387	76	36	12	41%	3.4	16.0%	8.9%	7.2%	3.6%	4.15	4.84	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AA RAW	CIN	14	6	53	215	50	10	7	43%	3.8	23.3%	4.7%	18.6%	3.3%	3.74	3.51	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	CIN	13	5	38	172	26	26	5	38%	2.9	15.1%	15.1%	0.0%	2.9%	4.74	5.33	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	CIN	6	0	6	27	5	3	1	0%	1.1	18.9%	10.5%	8.4%	2.5%	4.57	4.57	-0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	CIN	—	—	97	414	81	39	13	—	—	19.6%	9.4%	10.2%	3.1%	4.18	4.82	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	CIN	14	14	89	376	73	38	10	100%	6.4	19.4%	10.2%	9.2%	2.5%	4.53	4.52	+0.4
2028	27	MLB MLE	CIN	14	14	88	371	73	37	10	100%	6.3	19.6%	10.1%	9.5%	2.6%	4.52	4.54	+0.4
2029	28	MLB MLE	CIN	14	14	85	360	70	36	10	100%	6.1	19.6%	10.1%	9.5%	2.7%	4.56	4.61	+0.3
2030	29	MLB MLE	CIN	13	13	81	344	67	35	10	100%	6.3	19.4%	10.2%	9.1%	2.9%	4.65	4.73	+0.2
2031	30	MLB MLE	CIN	12	12	76	323	68	31	10	100%	6.4	21.0%	9.8%	11.3%	3.1%	4.64	4.64	+0.2
2032	31	MLB MLE	CIN	11	11	71	301	62	30	10	100%	6.5	20.6%	10.1%	10.5%	3.3%	4.76	4.84	+0.0
2027	26	MLB CTX	CIN	6	6	39	165	32	17	4	100%	6.5	19.4%	10.2%	9.2%	2.7%	4.64	4.63	+0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	CIN	9	9	56	236	46	24	7	100%	6.2	19.6%	10.1%	9.5%	2.8%	4.63	4.65	+0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	CIN	10	10	64	270	53	27	8	100%	6.4	19.6%	10.1%	9.5%	3.0%	4.68	4.73	+0.2
2030	29	MLB CTX	CIN	11	11	66	279	54	29	9	100%	6.0	19.4%	10.2%	9.1%	3.1%	4.78	4.86	+0.1
2031	30	MLB CTX	CIN	11	11	66	279	59	27	9	100%	6.0	21.0%	9.8%	11.3%	3.3%	4.78	4.78	+0.2
2032	31	MLB CTX	CIN	10	10	63	266	55	27	10	100%	6.3	20.6%	10.1%	10.5%	3.6%	4.91	4.99	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		57	57	355	1497	299	151	47	100%	6.2	20.0%	10.1%	9.9%	3.1%	4.74	4.40	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		32	32	200	844	169	85	27	100%	6.2	20.0%	10.1%	9.9%	3.1%	4.74	4.40	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		77	49	277	1178	222	131	28	64%	3.6	18.9%	11.1%	7.8%	2.4%	3.83	4.23	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	35	200	851	160	94	20	64%	3.6	18.9%	11.1%	7.8%	2.4%	3.83	4.23	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jared Lyons (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.57	18.9%	10.5%	2.5%	—	4.56	19.5%	9.4%	262	-0.01	—	—	—
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	90
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	88
Sean Harney R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	25	SP-	3.55	18.2%	9.8%	1.4%	.285	4.74	16.5%	5.1%	59	+1.19	3.55	123	87
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	85
Joey Mancini R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	23	SP-	4.22	18.1%	10.0%	2.5%	.354	4.40	16.6%	6.3%	296	+0.18	3.64	391	84
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	84
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	84
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	83
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	83
Nathanael Santiago R 2015 · 3.44 FIP	25	SP-	3.44	20.3%	11.4%	1.1%	.286	3.58	23.2%	10.9%	71	+0.14	2.49	138	83
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.40	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.40	3.65	299	82
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	82
Noah Gotsis R 2021 · 3.48 FIP	25	SP-	3.48	16.5%	6.5%	1.7%	.296	4.25	15.9%	8.6%	90	+0.77	3.48	138	81
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	81
Nick Hull R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.84	17.7%	6.3%	200	+0.58	4.26	292	81
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.73	25.0%	14.9%	174	-0.70	2.47	304	81
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.50	21.1%	13.0%	142	-0.21	1.87	251	81
Stolmy Pimentel R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	16.0%	10.5%	2.5%	.338	3.87	13.6%	3.1%	72	-0.60	3.87	143	81
Devereaux Harrison R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	17.6%	11.3%	3.6%	.252	4.76	16.6%	4.4%	294	-0.28	4.43	388	80
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	80	19.8%	10.1%	1.08	4.60
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Michael Fulmer ('23)	3.4	96	20.3%	7.6%	0.99	3.94