Jared Lyons
P
Chattanooga Lookouts
+0.5
WAR
Age 25
RHP
6'1" / 206 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.5 · 2026
ERA4.27
FIP4.27
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.2%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%11.5%
IP63
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2026
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | ACL Reds | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 17 | 13 | 59 | 267 | 72 | 37 | 4 | 20.1% | 15.3% | 2.0% | 4.27 | 4.46 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 8 | 8 | 38 | 160 | 46 | 20 | 5 | 22.1% | 14.4% | 2.8% | 2.82 | 4.58 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 23 | 15 | 87 | 358 | 80 | 32 | 6 | 18.7% | 9.1% | 1.1% | 3.74 | 3.28 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 3 | 0 | 11 | 41 | 6 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 0.84 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | CIN | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 56 | 26 | 7 | 21.2% | 9.7% | 2.5% | 4.27 | 4.27 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 74 | 307 | 62 | 28 | 8 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 2.5% | 3.77 | 3.65 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 58 | 26 | 7 | 21.6% | 9.6% | 2.5% | 4.26 | 4.25 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 11 | 11 | 63 | 264 | 57 | 25 | 7 | 21.8% | 9.6% | 2.6% | 4.27 | 4.27 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 11 | 11 | 62 | 261 | 57 | 25 | 7 | 21.8% | 9.6% | 2.6% | 4.29 | 4.30 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 11 | 11 | 60 | 255 | 55 | 25 | 7 | 21.7% | 9.7% | 2.7% | 4.32 | 4.34 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 58 | — | 58 | 247 | 53 | 24 | 7 | 21.5% | 9.8% | 2.7% | 4.37 | 4.41 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 56 | — | 56 | 239 | 51 | 24 | 7 | 21.3% | 9.9% | 2.8% | 4.44 | 4.48 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 54 | — | 54 | 229 | 48 | 23 | 7 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 2.9% | 4.52 | 4.57 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | CIN | 52 | — | 52 | 219 | 45 | 22 | 7 | 20.7% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 4.61 | 4.66 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | CIN | 49 | — | 49 | 208 | 42 | 22 | 6 | 20.3% | 10.4% | 3.1% | 4.71 | 4.77 | +0.1 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | CIN | 46 | — | 46 | 196 | 39 | 21 | 6 | 19.9% | 10.7% | 3.2% | 4.82 | 4.89 | +0.0 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | CIN | 43 | — | 43 | 183 | 36 | 20 | 6 | 19.5% | 10.9% | 3.3% | 4.95 | 5.03 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 53 | 38 | 197 | 832 | 166 | 98 | 15 | 20.0% | 11.8% | 1.8% | 3.52 | 3.89 | +3.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 54 | 39 | 200 | 846 | 169 | 100 | 15 | 20.0% | 11.8% | 1.8% | 3.52 | 3.89 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jared Lyons (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.27 | 21.2% | 9.7% | 2.5% | — | 4.27 | 21.7% | 12.1% | 187 | +0.00 | — | — | — |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.99 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .311 | 4.41 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.65 | 255 | 94 |
| Austin Ross R 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.42 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .281 | 5.22 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.80 | 4.42 | 121 | 92 |
| Barrett Loseke R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.41 | 21.7% | 10.1% | 3.4% | .311 | 5.44 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 22 | +1.03 | 4.41 | 152 | 91 |
| Nelson Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.40 | 19.6% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .293 | 5.06 | 17.7% | 7.8% | 115 | +1.66 | 3.40 | 258 | 91 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.08 | 18.9% | 10.2% | 2.4% | .271 | 3.84 | 21.6% | 13.4% | 73 | -0.24 | 3.84 | 206 | 91 |
| Randall Delgado R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.73 | 23.7% | 10.1% | 2.5% | .284 | 3.72 | 20.3% | 12.4% | 167 | -0.01 | 3.05 | 290 | 90 |
| Jordan Milbrath R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.05 | 19.9% | 10.4% | 2.4% | .272 | 3.60 | 19.6% | 9.7% | 129 | -0.45 | 3.20 | 386 | 90 |
| Easton Sikorski R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.32 | 21.1% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 159 | 90 |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.42 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 2.6% | .279 | 5.32 | 15.6% | 5.5% | 168 | +0.90 | 4.42 | 239 | 89 |
| Sean Harney R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.55 | 18.2% | 9.8% | 1.4% | .285 | 4.73 | 16.5% | 5.1% | 59 | +1.18 | 3.55 | 123 | 89 |
| Matt Pierpont R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.50 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 1.9% | .295 | 3.39 | 21.6% | 13.6% | 156 | -0.11 | 2.79 | 280 | 89 |
| Guido Knudson R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.50 | 20.7% | 11.1% | 1.4% | .255 | 4.70 | 17.5% | 6.7% | 47 | +1.20 | 3.50 | 106 | 89 |
| David Goforth R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.06 | 17.4% | 9.8% | 2.2% | .287 | 4.58 | 14.1% | 3.6% | 184 | +0.52 | 4.06 | 256 | 89 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.85 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.07 | 3.23 | 161 | 88 |
| Derek Gordon R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.59 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 146 | 88 |
| Grant Hartwig R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.84 | 21.2% | 10.8% | 2.1% | .330 | 3.91 | 21.7% | 11.3% | 61 | +0.07 | 2.52 | 179 | 88 |
| Taylor Floyd R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.32 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 3.0% | .331 | 4.32 | 18.9% | 9.8% | 122 | +0.00 | 3.48 | 290 | 88 |
| Taylor Grover R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.69 | 17.5% | 8.4% | 1.8% | .317 | 4.94 | 19.4% | 9.1% | 89 | +1.25 | 3.69 | 239 | 88 |
| Héctor Neris R 2027 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.97 | 20.9% | 10.0% | 2.5% | .298 | 3.00 | 31.5% | 23.7% | 221 | -0.97 | 1.99 | 682 | 88 |
| Alex Phillips R 2025 · 3.26 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.26 | 22.0% | 8.0% | 1.8% | .263 | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.6% | 72 | +1.34 | 3.26 | 139 | 88 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.8M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.7M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.3M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.2 | $1M | +$0.4M |
| Totals | $5M | $9M | +$5M | ||