Jared Lyons
P
Chattanooga Lookouts
Age 25
RHP
6'1" / 206 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.6 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION56 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 103
ERA4.49
FIP4.49
K%18.9%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%8.9%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 126 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | ACL Reds | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 66.7% | 0.0% | 66.7% | 0.0% | 0.00 | -2.53 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | ACL Reds | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 66.7% | 0.0% | 66.7% | 0.0% | 0.00 | -0.90 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 13 | 59 | 267 | 72 | 37 | 4 | 76% | 3.5 | 20.1% | 15.3% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 4.27 | 4.40 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 13 | 59 | 267 | 72 | 37 | 4 | 76% | 3.5 | 27.0% | 13.9% | 13.1% | 1.5% | 4.27 | 3.42 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 8 | 8 | 38 | 160 | 46 | 20 | 5 | 100% | 4.8 | 22.1% | 14.4% | 7.8% | 2.5% | 2.82 | 4.42 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 8 | 8 | 38 | 160 | 46 | 20 | 5 | 100% | 4.8 | 28.7% | 12.5% | 16.2% | 3.1% | 2.82 | 3.96 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 15 | 87 | 358 | 80 | 32 | 6 | 65% | 3.8 | 18.7% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 1.1% | 3.74 | 3.27 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 15 | 87 | 358 | 80 | 32 | 6 | 65% | 3.8 | 22.3% | 8.9% | 13.4% | 1.7% | 3.74 | 3.26 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 17 | 5 | 56 | 234 | 54 | 13 | 8 | 29% | 3.3 | 19.2% | 3.9% | 15.3% | 4.2% | 4.04 | 4.30 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | CIN | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 56 | 29 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.9% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 2.4% | 4.49 | 4.49 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | CIN | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.9% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 2.5% | 4.53 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 126 | 530 | 110 | 42 | 15 | — | — | 20.7% | 8.0% | 12.7% | 2.9% | 4.29 | 4.40 | +1.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 18.9% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 2.5% | 4.53 | 4.14 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 11 | 11 | 70 | 296 | 58 | 29 | 7 | 100% | 6.4 | 19.5% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 2.5% | 4.46 | 4.45 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 11 | 11 | 69 | 291 | 58 | 29 | 8 | 100% | 6.3 | 19.8% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 2.6% | 4.47 | 4.48 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 5 | 5 | 31 | 131 | 26 | 13 | 3 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.5% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 2.6% | 4.50 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 7 | 7 | 44 | 186 | 37 | 18 | 5 | 100% | 6.3 | 19.8% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 2.7% | 4.51 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 13 | 12 | 76 | 320 | 63 | 32 | 8 | 92% | 5.8 | 19.7% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 2.6% | 4.50 | 4.13 | +0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 31 | 200 | 844 | 166 | 84 | 21 | 90% | 5.8 | 19.7% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 2.6% | 4.50 | 4.13 | +3.0 | ||
| Career | — | 67 | 43 | 242 | 1025 | 205 | 105 | 23 | 64% | 3.6 | 20.0% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 2.2% | 3.76 | 3.94 | +4.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 55 | 36 | 200 | 848 | 170 | 87 | 19 | 64% | 3.6 | 20.0% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 2.2% | 3.76 | 3.94 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jared Lyons (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.49 | 18.9% | 10.0% | 2.4% | — | 4.46 | 19.7% | 9.8% | 139 | -0.03 | — | — | — |
| Sean Harney R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.51 | 18.2% | 9.8% | 1.3% | .285 | 4.69 | 16.5% | 5.1% | 59 | +1.18 | 3.51 | 123 | 87 |
| Brett Gillis R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.37 | 20.3% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .278 | 5.10 | 15.8% | 6.7% | 73 | +1.73 | 3.37 | 119 | 87 |
| Yaisel Sierra R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.31 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .338 | 3.01 | 22.4% | 12.3% | 71 | -1.30 | 3.01 | 176 | 84 |
| Hunter Adkins R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.37 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.81 | 11.8% | 0.5% | 58 | +0.44 | 4.37 | 160 | 84 |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.06 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .311 | 4.48 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.63 | 281 | 83 |
| Carlos Sano R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.98 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.6% | .282 | 9.58 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.60 | 4.98 | 105 | 83 |
| Nathanael Santiago R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.47 | 20.3% | 11.4% | 1.2% | .286 | 3.51 | 23.2% | 10.9% | 71 | +0.04 | 2.45 | 138 | 83 |
| Noah Gotsis R 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.38 | 16.5% | 6.5% | 1.5% | .296 | 4.26 | 15.9% | 8.6% | 90 | +0.88 | 3.38 | 138 | 82 |
| Jake Bockenstedt R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.62 | 16.9% | 11.4% | 2.7% | .303 | 4.01 | 16.6% | 4.2% | 20 | -0.61 | 4.01 | 214 | 82 |
| Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 20.3% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .309 | 3.63 | 21.4% | 13.2% | 123 | -0.14 | 1.87 | 232 | 82 |
| Dawson Netz R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 80 |
| Phil Klein R 2027 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 18.1% | 11.0% | 1.6% | .280 | 3.17 | 24.5% | 17.9% | 97 | -0.66 | 3.17 | 178 | 80 |
| Stolmy Pimentel R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.28 | 16.0% | 10.5% | 2.2% | .338 | 3.79 | 13.6% | 3.1% | 72 | -0.49 | 3.79 | 143 | 80 |
| Carlos Frías R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.16 | 14.1% | 7.2% | 2.5% | .320 | 4.70 | 13.0% | 2.6% | 74 | +0.54 | 3.64 | 204 | 80 |
| Jake Bray R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.02 | 15.4% | 11.2% | 3.3% | .294 | 5.41 | 20.5% | 7.7% | 61 | +0.39 | 2.76 | 198 | 79 |
| TJ Shook R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.41 | 21.0% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .273 | 4.29 | 23.1% | 14.9% | 172 | -0.12 | 3.36 | 432 | 79 |
| Brandon White R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.90 | 14.4% | 7.7% | 1.9% | .285 | 4.08 | 24.9% | 18.7% | 71 | +0.18 | 3.90 | 264 | 79 |
| Mike Franco R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.74 | 17.2% | 12.9% | 2.6% | .251 | 4.30 | 21.9% | 12.7% | 98 | -0.44 | 3.06 | 322 | 79 |
| Alex Wimmers R 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.57 | 16.6% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .324 | 3.73 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 114 | +0.16 | 3.57 | 230 | 79 |
| Bryce Morrow R 2028 · 4.48 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.48 | 12.8% | 7.9% | 2.7% | .316 | 5.59 | 10.1% | -0.2% | 50 | +1.11 | 4.48 | 125 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 70 | 19.4% | 9.9% | 0.97 | 4.47 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |