Jared Lyons

P Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 26 RHP 6'1" / 206 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.5 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1068ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	A+CIN	8	8	38	2.82	3.96	28.7%	12.5%	—	K 22.1% · BB 14.4% · FIP 4.72
2025	24	MIX2 levels	23	15	87	3.74	3.26	22.3%	8.9%	—	K 18.7% · BB 9.1% · FIP 3.28
2026	25	MIX2 levels	29	11	96	4.14	4.31	20.1%	9.1%	—	K 16.7% · BB 8.7% · FIP 4.81
2027PROJ	26	MLBCIN	1	1	1	4.88	4.88	16.6%	9.0%	0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBCIN	4	4	26	4.97	4.99	17.1%	9.0%	0.2
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBCIN	6	6	37	5.00	5.04	17.3%	9.0%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Ext$3M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control50Command50

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 0.4, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsAaron Northcraft (age 26) · David Griffin (age 26) · Bryce Morrow (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.88

FIP4.88

K%16.6%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%7.5%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†4045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$0.7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	21	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	2	2	2	6	4	0	0	100%	1.0	66.7%	0.0%	66.7%	0.0%	0.00	-2.53	—
2022	21	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	2	2	2	6	4	0	0	100%	1.0	66.7%	0.0%	66.7%	0.0%	0.00	-0.90	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	13	59	267	72	37	4	76%	3.5	20.1%	15.3%	4.8%	2.1%	4.27	4.47	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	13	59	267	72	37	4	76%	3.5	27.0%	13.9%	13.1%	1.5%	4.27	3.42	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	8	8	38	160	46	20	5	100%	4.8	22.1%	14.4%	7.8%	3.0%	2.82	4.72	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	8	8	38	160	46	20	5	100%	4.8	22.1%	14.4%	7.8%	3.0%	2.82	4.72	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	8	8	38	160	46	20	5	100%	4.8	28.7%	12.5%	16.2%	3.1%	2.82	3.96	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	15	87	358	80	32	6	65%	3.8	18.7%	9.1%	9.7%	1.1%	3.74	3.28	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	15	87	358	80	32	6	65%	3.8	18.7%	9.1%	9.7%	1.1%	3.74	3.28	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	15	87	358	80	32	6	65%	3.8	22.3%	8.9%	13.4%	1.7%	3.74	3.26	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	11	96	407	82	37	13	38%	3.3	16.7%	8.7%	8.0%	3.7%	4.14	4.81	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	11	96	407	82	37	13	38%	3.3	16.7%	8.7%	8.0%	3.7%	4.14	4.81	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	11	96	407	82	37	13	38%	3.3	20.1%	9.1%	11.1%	3.2%	4.14	4.31	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	CIN	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	16.6%	9.0%	7.5%	3.0%	4.88	4.88	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	CIN	11	11	70	293	50	26	9	100%	6.3	17.1%	9.0%	8.1%	3.1%	4.84	4.86	+0.4
2029	28	MLB MLE	CIN	10	10	62	261	45	24	8	100%	6.2	17.3%	9.0%	8.3%	3.2%	4.86	4.90	+0.4
2030	29	MLB MLE	CIN	10	10	62	262	51	22	9	100%	6.2	19.3%	8.4%	10.9%	3.3%	4.77	4.73	+0.5
2031	30	MLB MLE	CIN	9	9	56	235	45	20	8	100%	6.2	19.1%	8.7%	10.4%	3.5%	4.84	4.89	+0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	CIN	4	4	26	110	19	10	4	100%	6.5	17.1%	9.0%	8.1%	3.3%	4.97	4.99	+0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	CIN	6	6	37	156	27	14	5	100%	6.2	17.3%	9.0%	8.3%	3.4%	5.00	5.04	+0.2
2030	29	MLB CTX	CIN	7	7	44	186	36	16	7	100%	6.3	19.3%	8.4%	10.9%	3.6%	4.92	4.88	+0.3
2031	30	MLB CTX	CIN	7	7	44	186	35	16	7	100%	6.3	19.1%	8.7%	10.4%	3.8%	4.99	5.04	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		24	24	150	635	117	55	23	100%	6.3	18.4%	8.7%	9.6%	3.5%	4.97	4.60	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		32	32	200	844	156	73	31	100%	6.2	18.4%	8.7%	9.6%	3.5%	4.97	4.60	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		79	49	282	1198	228	132	29	62%	3.6	19.0%	11.0%	8.1%	2.4%	3.83	4.23	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	35	200	851	162	93	21	62%	3.6	19.0%	11.0%	8.1%	2.4%	3.83	4.23	+1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 53 IPFIP 3.51 → 4.30 (+0.79)K% 23.3% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.26%	—	×0.810	18.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.65%	—	×1.100	5.12%
HR / BF /BF	3.26%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.91%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.51 → 4.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAALouisville Bats · 43 IPFIP 5.19 → 5.38 (+0.19)K% 16.7% → 14.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.67%	—	×0.860	14.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.06%	—	×0.900	12.66%
HR / BF /BF	3.12%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.44%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.19 → 5.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 77 IPFIP 2.71 → 3.28 (+0.57)K% 23.1% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.10%	—	×0.810	18.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.23%	—	×1.100	9.05%
HR / BF /BF	0.95%	÷1.021	×1.200	1.12%

Result: FIP 2.71 → 3.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAALouisville Bats · 10 IPFIP 7.42 → 8.30 (+0.88)K% 16.7% → 14.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.67%	—	×0.860	14.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.29%	—	×0.900	12.86%
HR / BF /BF	7.14%	÷0.901	×1.100	8.72%

Result: FIP 7.42 → 8.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Dayton Dragons · 38 IPFIP 3.97 → 4.72 (+0.75)K% 28.7% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.75%	—	×0.770	22.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.50%	—	×1.150	14.37%
HR / BF /BF	3.12%	÷1.285	×1.250	3.04%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 157).

Result: FIP 3.97 → 4.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ADaytona Tortugas · 54 IPFIP 3.36 → 4.47 (+1.10)K% 27.2% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.20%	—	×0.740	20.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.97%	—	×1.180	15.31%
HR / BF /BF	1.67%	÷1.060	×1.300	2.05%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 112).

Result: FIP 3.36 → 4.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Reds · 5 IPFIP 3.70 → 5.06 (+1.35)K% 25.0% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.680	17.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	21.43%	—	×1.250	26.79%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.059	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 112).

Result: FIP 3.70 → 5.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jared Lyons (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.88	16.6%	9.0%	3.0%	—	4.83	17.9%	9.1%	193	-0.05	—	—	—
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	86
David Griffin R 2022 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	16.6%	9.8%	3.2%	.285	5.83	14.2%	5.0%	81	+1.12	4.43	239	85
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	85
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	84
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	82
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	82
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	81
André Rienzo R 2014 · 5.13 FIP	26	SP-	5.13	16.3%	10.6%	3.8%	.324	4.13	17.5%	4.8%	171	-1.00	3.53	321	81
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	81
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	80
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	80
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	80
D.J. Houlton R 2005 · 4.85 FIP	25	SP-	4.85	15.6%	8.5%	3.6%	.297	4.74	18.6%	12.4%	28	-0.11	4.74	157	79
Logan Martin R 2024 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	16.9%	8.9%	2.1%	.278	4.58	17.6%	5.0%	140	+0.63	3.95	242	79
Brad Lincoln R 2011 · 3.78 FIP	26	SP-	3.78	13.7%	5.7%	2.1%	.301	4.23	22.3%	13.9%	120	+0.45	3.78	280	79
Nick Pasquale R 2017 · 4.74 FIP	26	SP-	4.74	16.8%	12.7%	2.6%	.306	3.80	17.9%	6.3%	50	-0.94	3.19	308	79
Bryce Conley R 2021 · 4.31 FIP	26	SW	4.31	17.9%	12.2%	2.2%	.285	4.22	16.4%	5.3%	48	-0.09	4.22	560	79
Grant Judkins R 2024 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	16.8%	9.1%	4.2%	.264	5.80	14.9%	5.8%	124	+0.67	5.13	322	79
Alex Wimmers R 2015 · 3.69 FIP	26	SP-	3.69	16.6%	9.7%	1.4%	.324	3.68	21.5%	12.1%	114	-0.01	3.61	230	79
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	64	17.8%	8.8%	1.24	4.84
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Trevor Gott ('15-'23, -1 WAR*)	1.2	61	18.5%*	8.4%*	1.01*	4.85*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*