Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 3 | 9 | 37 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 43% | 1.2 | 37.8% | 5.4% | 32.4% | 5.4% | 4.15 | 3.56 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 3 | 9 | 37 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 43% | 1.2 | 37.8% | 5.4% | 32.4% | 5.4% | 4.15 | 3.56 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 18 | 101 | 458 | 96 | 59 | 13 | 72% | 4.0 | 15.6% | 14.0% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 5.19 | 5.28 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 18 | 101 | 458 | 96 | 59 | 13 | 72% | 4.0 | 21.0% | 12.9% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 5.19 | 4.63 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 27 | 10 | 50 | 253 | 46 | 49 | 8 | 37% | 1.9 | 14.7% | 21.3% | -6.6% | 4.2% | 8.28 | 6.83 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 27 | 10 | 50 | 253 | 46 | 49 | 8 | 37% | 1.9 | 18.2% | 19.4% | -1.2% | 3.2% | 8.28 | 6.28 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | LAD | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 40 | 64 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.6% | 21.7% | -8.0% | 3.3% | 6.86 | 6.86 | -1.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 46 | 60 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.4% | 20.4% | -4.9% | 3.2% | 6.57 | 6.54 | -1.5 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 47 | 57 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.0% | 19.6% | -3.6% | 3.3% | 6.40 | 6.41 | -1.3 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 30 | 0 | 31 | 131 | 20 | 27 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.4% | 20.4% | -4.9% | 3.2% | 6.57 | 6.54 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 30 | 36 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.0% | 19.6% | -3.6% | 3.3% | 6.40 | 6.41 | -1.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 71 | 0 | 74 | 314 | 50 | 63 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.8% | 19.9% | -4.1% | 3.3% | 6.47 | 6.08 | -1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 134 | 169 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.8% | 19.9% | -4.1% | 3.3% | 6.47 | 6.08 | -1.6 | ||
| Career | — | 59 | 31 | 159 | 748 | 123 | 120 | 27 | 53% | 2.7 | 16.4% | 16.1% | 0.3% | 3.6% | 6.10 | 5.72 | -0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 74 | 39 | 200 | 939 | 154 | 151 | 34 | 53% | 2.7 | 16.4% | 16.1% | 0.3% | 3.6% | 6.10 | 5.72 | -0.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jacob Meador (OGILVIE) | — | — | 6.86 | 13.6% | 21.7% | 3.3% | — | 6.48 | 15.7% | -4.3% | 139 | -0.38 | — | — | — |
| David Whitehead R 2025 · 5.99 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.99 | 10.7% | 19.2% | 2.5% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 217 | 73 |
| Lucas Erceg R 2027 · 5.74 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.74 | 17.1% | 18.1% | 3.3% | .258 | 3.41 | 25.1% | 13.7% | 193 | -2.33 | 2.09 | 339 | 73 |
| Pedro Garcia R 2024 · 6.06 FIP | 23 | SW | 6.06 | 12.6% | 24.0% | 1.8% | .242 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 144 | 73 |
| Oscar Verdugo R 2026 · 6.84 FIP | 25 | SP- | 6.84 | 10.5% | 13.9% | 5.2% | .241 | 6.16 | 10.8% | -1.8% | 74 | -0.68 | 5.39 | 144 | 72 |
| Robbie Peto R 2026 · 5.71 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.71 | 15.3% | 13.4% | 4.0% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.38 | 232 | 72 |
| Blake Hickman R 2025 · 6.54 FIP | 24 | SW | 6.54 | 12.9% | 17.8% | 4.1% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.45 | 156 | 72 |
| Colby Morris R 2026 · 5.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.76 | 16.2% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 105 | 71 |
| Vanny Valenzuela R 2028 · 6.66 FIP | 27 | SW | 6.66 | 12.4% | 14.8% | 5.0% | .314 | 4.38 | 15.8% | 4.6% | 70 | -2.28 | 3.26 | 118 | 69 |
| Jordan Brink R 2024 · 5.96 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.96 | 18.3% | 19.2% | 3.6% | .233 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 132 | 69 |
| Braxton Hyde R 2025 · 5.67 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.67 | 14.0% | 12.3% | 4.0% | .345 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.90 | 198 | 69 |
| Michael Kelly R 2026 · 6.28 FIP | 25 | SW | 6.28 | 14.6% | 24.2% | 2.5% | .299 | 3.61 | 24.8% | 15.9% | 45 | -2.67 | 2.83 | 666 | 69 |
| Jacob Dahlstrand R 2026 · 5.70 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.70 | 8.6% | 13.8% | 2.9% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 119 | 68 |
| Levi Stoudt R 2026 · 6.29 FIP | 25 | SP- | 6.29 | 13.7% | 13.8% | 4.7% | .280 | 6.31 | 15.7% | 3.3% | 110 | +0.02 | 4.37 | 395 | 67 |
| Drake Fellows R 2026 · 5.70 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.70 | 17.1% | 20.4% | 2.7% | .367 | 4.86 | 16.3% | 5.6% | 215 | -0.84 | 4.58 | 226 | 67 |
| Miguel Medrano R 2025 · 6.01 FIP | 24 | SW | 6.01 | 18.1% | 18.6% | 3.8% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.73 | 232 | 67 |
| Huei-Sheng Lin R 2024 · 5.84 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.84 | 16.6% | 14.9% | 4.1% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 120 | 66 |
| Ethan Bosacker R 2026 · 5.94 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.94 | 15.2% | 14.0% | 4.3% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 272 | 64 |
| Mike Ruff R 2026 · 6.85 FIP | 25 | SW | 6.85 | 14.7% | 13.7% | 5.9% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 260 | 64 |
| Eriq Swan R 2025 · 5.91 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.91 | 17.1% | 16.4% | 4.0% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.78 | 128 | 64 |
| Aldo Montes R 2026 · 6.51 FIP | 25 | SP- | 6.51 | 11.6% | 10.4% | 5.6% | .337 | 4.61 | 11.6% | 1.4% | 110 | -1.90 | 4.41 | 210 | 63 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 70 | 15.0% | 20.6% | 1.26 | 6.61 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |