Lucas Erceg — OGILVIE

Lucas Erceg P Kansas City Royals

+1.0 WAR

Age 31 RHP 6'2" / 214 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 1.0 · 2026

ERA3.59

FIP3.60

xFIP5.36

SIERA5.95

K%22.9%

BB%7.4%

K-BB%15.6%

IP56

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.0peak

2026

K†6060

FB Velo

p9097.6

Whiff%

p4624.7%

p3019.3%

xwOBA vs

p570.305

FB+2.4 (56%)

SI (21%)

SL-1.3 (29%)

CH-1.5 (15%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	26	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	22	13	48	213	45	35	5	17.1%	18.1%	3.0%	5.29	5.61	-0.4
2022	27	AAA	Nashville Sounds	49	4	61	283	69	37	6	20.8%	14.0%	2.5%	4.55	4.47	+0.3
2023	28	MLB	Oakland Athletics	63	0	70	318	84	45	4	25.8%	14.3%	1.4%	5.12	3.53	+1.2
2024	29	MLB	Kansas City Royals	61	0	62	253	72	14	3	28.5%	5.5%	1.2%	3.36	2.07	+2.0
2025	30	MLB	Kansas City Royals	62	0	62	252	48	15	4	19.3%	6.0%	1.7%	2.60	3.16	+1.3
▸ 2026 Season
2026	31	MLB	Kansas City Royals	8	0	7	30	5	3	0	—	—	—	6.14	—	—
ROS	31	MLB	MIL	49	—	49	208	54	15	5	26.0%	7.3%	2.2%	3.52	3.42	+0.9
2026 Total	31	MLB	MIL	—	—	56	238	59	18	5	24.8%	7.7%	1.9%	3.86	2.98	+1.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	32	MLB	MIL	54	—	54	229	55	18	5	24.1%	7.7%	2.2%	3.59	3.60	+0.8
2028	33	MLB	MIL	52	—	52	219	51	17	5	23.5%	7.9%	2.2%	3.67	3.73	+0.7
2029	34	MLB	MIL	49	—	49	208	47	17	5	22.8%	8.1%	2.3%	3.79	3.87	+0.6
2030	35	MLB	MIL	46	—	46	196	43	16	5	22.0%	8.3%	2.5%	3.93	4.02	+0.5
2031	36	MLB	MIL	43	—	43	183	39	16	5	21.3%	8.6%	2.6%	4.08	4.18	+0.4
2032	37	MLB	MIL	40	—	40	170	35	15	5	20.5%	8.8%	2.7%	4.25	4.36	+0.3
2033	38	MLB	MIL	37	—	37	157	31	14	4	19.6%	9.2%	2.8%	4.43	4.54	+0.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			265	17	311	1349	303	156	25	22.5%	11.5%	1.9%	4.20	3.70	+5.6
/ 200 IP	—			171	11	200	868	195	100	16	22.5%	11.5%	1.9%	4.20	3.70	+3.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Lucas Erceg (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.42	26.0%	7.3%	2.2%	—	3.73	23.5%	15.6%	155	+0.31	—	—	—
Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 3.21 FIP	31	SW	3.21	25.2%	6.0%	2.7%	.286	3.66	21.9%	12.2%	152	+0.45	2.80	284	74
Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.73 FIP	31	SW	3.73	24.5%	8.2%	3.0%	.325	3.80	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.07	3.65	137	72
Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.35 FIP	31	SW	3.35	25.3%	9.3%	2.2%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	2.91	210	72
Ross Ohlendorf R 2027 · 3.33 FIP	32	SW	3.33	23.7%	7.2%	2.4%	.342	4.98	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.65	3.33	122	72
Tom Wilhelmsen R 2026 · 3.11 FIP	31	SW	3.11	22.5%	9.7%	1.2%	.298	5.81	13.8%	4.1%	86	+2.70	3.11	148	71
John Axford R 2027 · 3.28 FIP	32	SW	3.28	24.8%	11.2%	1.6%	.333	3.94	21.5%	11.1%	141	+0.66	3.28	197	71
Ryan Madson R 2029 · 2.94 FIP	34	SW	2.94	23.4%	5.2%	2.1%	.244	2.97	23.9%	18.7%	176	+0.03	1.43	240	70
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2028 · 4.47 FIP	33	SW	4.47	26.2%	11.2%	3.9%	.263	3.98	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.49	3.98	104	69
Brandon Morrow R 2026 · 3.51 FIP	31	SU	3.51	18.3%	5.6%	2.3%	.280	3.50	21.2%	14.8%	153	-0.01	2.67	186	69
Kevin Jepsen R 2026 · 3.46 FIP	31	SW	3.46	20.7%	9.1%	1.7%	.241	5.68	16.9%	7.2%	90	+2.22	3.46	160	68
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 3.38 FIP	31	SW	3.38	26.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.241	3.98	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.60	3.38	212	68
Pedro Beato R 2026 · 3.69 FIP	31	SW	3.69	21.1%	6.4%	2.9%	.266	3.49	16.8%	9.3%	29	-0.20	3.46	295	67
Chad Gaudin R 2028 · 2.66 FIP	33	SU	2.66	22.8%	6.8%	1.1%	.325	3.16	21.8%	13.9%	58	+0.50	2.02	102	67
Tony Barnette R 2027 · 3.05 FIP	32	SW	3.05	19.9%	6.1%	1.6%	.281	3.28	23.4%	17.0%	84	+0.23	2.56	144	67
Ryan Cook R 2026 · 3.85 FIP	31	SW	3.85	25.1%	10.8%	2.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	102	67
Sam Dyson R 2026 · 3.27 FIP	31	SW	3.27	22.1%	5.2%	2.5%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	2.67	333	67
Luis García R 2026 · 3.04 FIP	31	SU	3.04	25.0%	8.3%	1.8%	.341	4.21	22.5%	13.9%	113	+1.17	2.26	602	66
Joakim Soria R 2026 · 3.48 FIP	31	SW	3.48	23.5%	6.6%	2.8%	.258	2.91	26.6%	18.9%	183	-0.57	2.00	380	66
Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.09 FIP	31	SW	4.09	25.3%	8.3%	3.8%	.278	3.53	24.3%	18.2%	99	-0.56	2.31	403	66
Matt Bush R 2026 · 3.65 FIP	31	SW	3.65	24.2%	7.9%	2.9%	.321	4.65	17.6%	4.6%	23	+1.00	2.88	249	66

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2023

Service 2.791 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-1	$0.8M	+1.0	$8M	+$7M
2027	Arb-2	$3M	+0.8	$3M	+$0.7M
2028	Arb-3	$4M	+0.7	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-4	$5M	+0.6	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$9M		$17M	+$8M