Lucas Erceg — OGILVIE

Lucas Erceg P Kansas City Royals

Age 31 RHP 6'2" / 214 lbs MLB peak 0.6 · 2026 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION54 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 96

ERA3.90

FIP3.82

K%19.9%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%10.6%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8797.1

Whiff%

p1820.8%

p1014.9%

xwOBA vs

p260.340

FB+2.4 (57%)

SI (28%)

SL-1.3 (28%)

CH-1.5 (14%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	26	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	22	13	48	213	45	35	5	59%	2.2	17.1%	18.1%	-1.0%	3.0%	5.29	5.61	—
2021	26	AA RAW	Biloxi Shuckers	22	13	48	213	45	35	5	59%	2.2	21.1%	16.4%	4.7%	2.3%	5.29	4.78	—
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	4	61	283	69	37	6	8%	1.3	20.8%	14.0%	6.8%	2.5%	4.55	4.48	—
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	4	61	283	69	37	6	8%	1.3	24.4%	13.1%	11.3%	2.1%	4.55	3.93	—
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	0	70	318	84	45	4	0%	1.1	25.6%	13.8%	11.7%	1.5%	5.12	3.51	+0.9
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	0	70	318	84	45	4	0%	1.1	25.6%	13.8%	11.7%	1.5%	5.12	3.51	+0.9
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	63	0	70	318	84	45	4	0%	1.1	26.4%	14.2%	12.3%	1.3%	5.12	3.37	+1.0
2024	29	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	61	0	62	253	72	14	3	0%	1.0	28.5%	5.5%	22.9%	1.3%	3.36	2.10	+1.8
2024	29	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	61	0	62	253	72	14	3	0%	1.0	28.5%	5.5%	22.9%	1.3%	3.36	2.10	+1.8
2024	29	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	61	0	62	253	72	14	3	0%	1.0	28.5%	5.5%	22.9%	1.2%	3.36	2.08	+1.8
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	62	0	62	252	48	15	4	0%	1.0	19.3%	6.0%	13.3%	1.7%	2.60	3.19	+1.0
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	62	0	62	252	48	15	4	0%	1.0	19.3%	6.0%	13.3%	1.7%	2.60	3.19	+1.0
2025	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	62	0	62	252	48	15	4	0%	1.0	19.0%	6.0%	13.1%	1.6%	2.60	3.12	+1.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			219	0	221	961	219	91	13	0%	1.0	22.8%	9.5%	13.3%	1.4%	4.07	3.12	+3.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	56	0	54	250	44	30	5	0%	1.0	14.9%	13.0%	1.9%	2.6%	5.37	4.91	-0.2
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	56	0	54	250	44	30	5	0%	1.0	14.9%	13.0%	1.9%	2.6%	5.37	4.91	-0.2
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	31	AAA RAW	KC	9	0	10	42	13	3	0	0%	1.1	31.0%	7.1%	23.8%	0.0%	1.74	1.39	—
2026	31	MLB RAW	KC	47	0	43	208	31	27	5	0%	0.9	14.9%	13.0%	1.9%	2.4%	6.23	4.81	-0.1
SO FAR	31	MLB RAW	KC	47	0	43	208	31	27	5	0%	0.9	14.9%	13.0%	1.9%	2.4%	6.23	4.81	-0.1
ROS	31	MLB MLE	KC	5	0	5	20	4	2	0	0%	1.0	19.9%	9.3%	10.6%	2.2%	3.90	3.82	+0.0
ROS	31	MLB CTX	KC	5	0	5	21	4	2	0	0%	1.0	19.9%	9.3%	10.6%	2.1%	3.81	3.73	+0.0
2026 TOT	31	MLB MLE	KC	—	—	58	270	48	32	5	—	—	17.8%	11.8%	6.0%	2.0%	5.25	4.82	-0.2
FULL	31	MLB A+C	KC	—	—	48	203	48	32	5	—	—	23.6%	15.7%	7.9%	2.7%	6.37	4.56	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	KC	50	0	52	221	44	22	6	0%	1.0	19.8%	9.8%	9.9%	2.5%	4.36	4.43	+0.1
2028	33	MLB MLE	KC	46	0	48	203	38	21	6	0%	1.0	18.9%	10.3%	8.6%	2.8%	4.57	4.71	-0.1
2029	34	MLB MLE	KC	42	0	44	185	33	20	6	0%	1.0	18.0%	10.8%	7.2%	3.1%	4.84	5.02	-0.2
2027	32	MLB CTX	KC	48	0	50	211	42	21	5	0%	1.0	19.8%	9.8%	9.9%	2.3%	4.26	4.33	+0.1
2028	33	MLB CTX	KC	44	0	46	194	37	20	5	0%	1.0	18.9%	10.3%	8.6%	2.6%	4.46	4.60	-0.1
2029	34	MLB CTX	KC	38	0	40	169	30	18	5	0%	1.1	18.0%	10.8%	7.2%	2.9%	4.71	4.89	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		352	0	361	1550	331	151	28	0%	1.0	21.3%	9.8%	11.6%	1.8%	4.21	3.53	+4.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		195	0	200	859	183	84	16	0%	1.0	21.3%	9.8%	11.6%	1.8%	4.21	3.53	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		313	17	357	1569	334	184	32	5%	1.1	21.3%	11.7%	9.6%	2.1%	4.34	3.92	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		175	10	200	879	187	103	18	5%	1.1	21.3%	11.7%	9.6%	2.1%	4.34	3.92	+1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Lucas Erceg (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.55	24.5%	7.3%	2.2%	—	4.70	18.9%	8.7%	144	+1.15	—	—	—
Blake Wood R 2017 · 3.44 FIP	31	SU	3.44	25.3%	9.3%	2.4%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	210	73
Tom Wilhelmsen R 2015 · 3.07 FIP	31	SU	3.07	22.5%	9.7%	1.1%	.298	5.78	13.8%	4.1%	86	+2.71	3.07	148	72
John Axford R 2015 · 3.20 FIP	32	SU	3.20	24.8%	11.2%	1.4%	.333	3.97	21.5%	11.1%	141	+0.77	3.20	197	71
Kevin Jepsen R 2015 · 3.47 FIP	31	SU	3.47	20.7%	9.1%	1.8%	.241	5.85	16.9%	7.2%	90	+2.38	3.47	160	71
Jeremy Jeffress R 2019 · 3.49 FIP	31	SU	3.49	20.4%	7.6%	2.1%	.312	3.70	19.3%	6.8%	23	+0.21	2.43	343	71
Danny Farquhar R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	30	SU	3.62	22.3%	11.0%	1.8%	.247	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	224	70
Rob Scahill R 2018 · 3.06 FIP	31	SU	3.06	22.6%	9.5%	1.2%	.373	—	—	—	—	—	3.06	201	70
Bryan Morris R 2017 · 3.60 FIP	30	SU	3.60	16.0%	9.6%	1.1%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	102	70
Luis García R 2018 · 3.05 FIP	31	SU	3.05	25.0%	8.3%	1.8%	.341	4.16	22.5%	13.9%	113	+1.11	2.33	617	69
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	69
Daniel Hudson R 2018 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.3%	8.6%	2.9%	.246	3.69	28.8%	20.4%	145	-0.22	1.68	468	69
Erik Davis R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	31	SU	3.52	17.4%	8.9%	1.4%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	227	69
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	69
Bo Schultz R 2016 · 3.90 FIP	30	SU	3.90	14.4%	5.2%	2.5%	.276	2.73	16.4%	8.4%	27	-1.17	2.73	141	69
Dustin Molleken R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	31	SU	4.04	19.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.276	3.38	24.3%	11.9%	16	-0.66	3.38	129	68
Brian Schlitter R 2016 · 3.28 FIP	30	SU	3.28	20.6%	10.8%	1.0%	.333	3.81	14.4%	6.6%	110	+0.53	3.28	244	68
Edwin Jackson R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	31	SU	3.77	17.5%	8.8%	1.9%	.244	4.71	17.6%	7.8%	377	+0.94	3.77	521	68
Jake Petricka R 2019 · 3.04 FIP	31	SU	3.04	23.4%	7.7%	1.7%	.323	4.07	18.8%	10.8%	60	+1.03	3.04	252	68
Carlos Fisher R 2015 · 3.45 FIP	32	SU	3.45	22.6%	11.6%	1.4%	.236	3.17	22.5%	11.1%	91	-0.28	2.48	147	68
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	68

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	49	20.4%	9.5%	1.02	4.33
Derek Law ('24)	1.5	60	21.5%	8.9%	0.88	3.47
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Cory Gearrin ('19)	1.1	57	21.5%	9.8%	0.79	3.42
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58