Lucas Erceg
P
Kansas City Royals
Age 31
RHP
6'2" / 214 lbs
MLB
peak 0.7 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION37 act + 20 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10798vR 89
ERA3.79
FIP3.71
K%20.9%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%11.9%
ROS IP20
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p8897.2
Whiff%
p2421.7%
K%
p1016.4%
xwOBA vs
p420.321
FB+2.4 (56%)
SI (26%)
SL-1.3 (30%)
CH-1.5 (14%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 26 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 22 | 13 | 48 | 213 | 45 | 35 | 5 | 59% | 2.2 | 17.1% | 18.1% | -1.0% | 3.3% | 5.29 | 5.74 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 22 | 13 | 48 | 213 | 45 | 35 | 5 | 59% | 2.2 | 21.1% | 16.4% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 5.29 | 4.78 | — |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 4 | 61 | 283 | 69 | 37 | 6 | 8% | 1.3 | 20.8% | 14.0% | 6.8% | 2.5% | 4.55 | 4.51 | — |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 4 | 61 | 283 | 69 | 37 | 6 | 8% | 1.3 | 24.4% | 13.1% | 11.3% | 2.1% | 4.55 | 3.93 | — |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 63 | 0 | 70 | 318 | 84 | 45 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.8% | 14.3% | 11.5% | 1.6% | 5.12 | 3.62 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 63 | 0 | 70 | 318 | 84 | 45 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.4% | 14.2% | 12.3% | 1.3% | 5.12 | 3.37 | +1.2 |
| 2024 | 29 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 61 | 0 | 62 | 253 | 72 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.5% | 5.5% | 22.9% | 1.3% | 3.36 | 2.09 | +1.8 |
| 2024 | 29 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 61 | 0 | 62 | 253 | 72 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.5% | 5.5% | 22.9% | 1.2% | 3.36 | 2.08 | +1.8 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 62 | 0 | 62 | 252 | 48 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.3% | 6.0% | 13.3% | 1.7% | 2.60 | 3.18 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 62 | 0 | 62 | 252 | 48 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.0% | 6.0% | 13.1% | 1.6% | 2.60 | 3.12 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 38 | 0 | 37 | 165 | 27 | 21 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.4% | 12.7% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 5.11 | 4.66 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | KC | 19 | 0 | 20 | 82 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.9% | 9.0% | 11.9% | 2.3% | 3.79 | 3.71 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | KC | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 18 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.9% | 9.0% | 11.9% | 2.2% | 3.75 | 3.67 | +0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 31 | MLB | KC | — | — | 56 | 247 | 44 | 28 | 6 | — | — | 17.9% | 11.5% | 6.4% | 2.4% | 4.65 | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 31 | MLB | KC | — | — | 56 | 239 | 44 | 28 | 6 | — | — | 18.5% | 11.9% | 6.6% | 2.4% | 4.64 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | KC | 50 | 0 | 52 | 221 | 46 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 2.5% | 4.23 | 4.30 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | KC | 46 | 0 | 48 | 203 | 40 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 2.8% | 4.44 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | KC | 42 | 0 | 44 | 185 | 35 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.1% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 4.71 | 4.88 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | KC | 48 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 44 | 20 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 2.4% | 4.19 | 4.26 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | KC | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 39 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 2.7% | 4.39 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | KC | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 32 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.1% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.66 | 4.83 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 357 | 0 | 369 | 1570 | 346 | 149 | 29 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 9.5% | 12.6% | 1.9% | 4.02 | 3.45 | +8.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 193 | 0 | 200 | 850 | 187 | 81 | 16 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 9.5% | 12.6% | 1.9% | 4.02 | 3.45 | +4.6 | ||
| Career | — | 295 | 17 | 340 | 1484 | 325 | 174 | 31 | 6% | 1.2 | 21.9% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 2.1% | 4.26 | 3.88 | +6.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 173 | 10 | 200 | 872 | 191 | 102 | 18 | 6% | 1.2 | 21.9% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 2.1% | 4.26 | 3.88 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Lucas Erceg (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.55 | 24.5% | 7.3% | 2.2% | — | 4.57 | 20.0% | 10.1% | 144 | +1.02 | — | — | — |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2026 · 3.09 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.09 | 22.5% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .298 | 5.84 | 13.8% | 4.1% | 86 | +2.75 | 3.09 | 148 | 73 |
| Héctor Rondón R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.52 | 18.7% | 7.8% | 3.7% | .257 | 5.52 | 23.7% | 14.4% | 20 | +1.00 | 2.37 | 318 | 72 |
| John Axford R 2027 · 3.10 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.10 | 24.8% | 11.2% | 1.2% | .333 | 3.98 | 21.5% | 11.1% | 141 | +0.88 | 3.10 | 197 | 72 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 71 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2028 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 71 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.52 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 210 | 71 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.92 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.46 | 3.46 | 160 | 71 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 70 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2027 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 70 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 3.20 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.20 | 25.2% | 6.0% | 2.7% | .286 | 3.68 | 21.9% | 12.2% | 152 | +0.48 | 2.82 | 284 | 68 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 68 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 68 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2027 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.25 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.19 | 2.56 | 147 | 68 |
| Chad Gaudin R 2028 · 2.66 FIP | 33 | SU | 2.66 | 22.8% | 6.8% | 1.1% | .325 | 3.46 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 58 | +0.80 | 2.02 | 102 | 68 |
| Tony Barnette R 2027 · 3.06 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.06 | 19.9% | 6.1% | 1.6% | .281 | 3.28 | 23.4% | 17.0% | 84 | +0.22 | 2.63 | 144 | 67 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.44 | 17.4% | 8.9% | 1.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 227 | 67 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2025 · 3.20 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.20 | 20.6% | 10.8% | 0.9% | .333 | 3.74 | 14.4% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.54 | 3.20 | 244 | 67 |
| Pedro Beato R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.79 | 21.1% | 6.4% | 3.0% | .266 | 3.41 | 16.8% | 9.3% | 29 | -0.38 | 3.40 | 295 | 67 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.69 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .244 | 4.74 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +1.05 | 3.69 | 521 | 67 |
| Jake Petricka R 2026 · 3.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.04 | 23.4% | 7.7% | 1.7% | .323 | 4.25 | 18.8% | 10.8% | 60 | +1.21 | 3.04 | 252 | 67 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 50 | 21.3% | 9.2% | 1.01 | 4.22 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |
| Derek Law ('24) | 5 | 60 | 21.5% | 8.9% | 0.88 | 3.47 |