Victor Mederos
P
Gwinnett Stripers
Age 25
RHP
6'2" / 222 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION48 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130120vR 111
ERA4.57
FIP4.89
K%15.4%
BB%11.6%
K-BB%3.9%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 119 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5194.6
Whiff%
p2922.4%
K%
p1617.3%
xwOBA vs
p170.351
SL+0.5 (46%)
SI (49%)
FB-2.8 (49%)
CH-3.9 (5%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | 6 | 6 | 16 | 74 | 15 | 9 | 1 | 100% | 2.7 | 15.6% | 14.0% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 5.62 | 5.03 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | 6 | 6 | 16 | 74 | 15 | 9 | 1 | 100% | 2.7 | 20.3% | 12.2% | 8.1% | 1.4% | 5.62 | 3.73 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 20 | 95 | 431 | 102 | 46 | 21 | 87% | 4.1 | 19.4% | 11.4% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 5.78 | 6.46 | -1.3 |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 20 | 95 | 431 | 102 | 46 | 21 | 87% | 4.1 | 23.7% | 10.7% | 13.0% | 4.9% | 5.78 | 5.28 | +0.0 |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 4 levels | 28 | 24 | 109 | 505 | 85 | 58 | 15 | 86% | 3.9 | 13.4% | 12.6% | 0.7% | 3.6% | 6.59 | 5.56 | -0.2 |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 4 levels | 28 | 24 | 109 | 505 | 85 | 58 | 15 | 86% | 3.9 | 16.8% | 11.5% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 6.59 | 4.92 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 22 | 120 | 529 | 99 | 49 | 11 | 92% | 5.0 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 6.8% | 2.3% | 3.98 | 4.19 | +1.7 |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 22 | 120 | 529 | 99 | 49 | 11 | 92% | 5.0 | 18.7% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 2.1% | 3.98 | 3.87 | +2.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 20 | 6 | 48 | 209 | 44 | 23 | 5 | 30% | 2.4 | 17.8% | 12.0% | 5.8% | 2.8% | 4.84 | 4.68 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | ATL | 67 | 0 | 70 | 298 | 46 | 34 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.4% | 11.6% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 4.57 | 4.89 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | ATL | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 46 | 34 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.4% | 11.6% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 4.57 | 4.89 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 119 | 507 | 90 | 57 | 14 | — | — | 17.8% | 11.3% | 6.4% | 2.7% | 4.68 | 4.81 | +0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 76 | 319 | 90 | 57 | 14 | — | — | 28.2% | 18.0% | 10.2% | 4.3% | 7.37 | 5.38 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | ATL | 13 | 13 | 76 | 319 | 53 | 36 | 10 | 100% | 5.8 | 16.6% | 11.3% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 5.04 | 5.14 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | ATL | 12 | 12 | 74 | 314 | 54 | 35 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.1% | 11.2% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 5.07 | 5.12 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | ATL | 12 | 12 | 72 | 304 | 50 | 34 | 9 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.6% | 11.3% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 5.04 | 5.14 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | ATL | 12 | 12 | 71 | 300 | 51 | 34 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.1% | 11.2% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 5.07 | 5.12 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 106 | 27 | 243 | 1040 | 174 | 124 | 32 | 25% | 2.3 | 16.7% | 11.9% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 5.17 | 4.88 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 87 | 22 | 200 | 855 | 143 | 102 | 26 | 25% | 2.3 | 16.7% | 11.9% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 5.17 | 4.88 | +1.2 | ||
| Career | — | 101 | 78 | 389 | 1748 | 287 | 200 | 66 | 77% | 3.8 | 16.4% | 11.4% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 5.33 | 5.24 | +0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 40 | 200 | 899 | 148 | 103 | 34 | 77% | 3.8 | 16.4% | 11.4% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 5.33 | 5.24 | +0.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Victor Mederos (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.29 | 15.2% | 11.5% | 3.0% | — | 5.13 | 16.8% | 5.6% | 150 | -0.16 | — | — | — |
| Jake Bray R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.02 | 15.4% | 11.2% | 3.3% | .294 | 5.41 | 20.5% | 7.7% | 61 | +0.39 | 2.76 | 198 | 78 |
| Jake Dunning R 2027 · 5.65 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.65 | 13.4% | 9.6% | 4.5% | .354 | 4.21 | 14.1% | 2.8% | 74 | -1.44 | 4.13 | 120 | 78 |
| Stolmy Pimentel R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.28 | 16.0% | 10.5% | 2.2% | .338 | 3.79 | 13.6% | 3.1% | 72 | -0.49 | 3.79 | 143 | 77 |
| Noah Song R 2027 · 6.24 FIP | 26 | SP | 6.24 | 12.0% | 13.2% | 4.5% | .239 | 4.28 | 17.8% | 4.6% | 85 | -1.96 | 3.62 | 106 | 76 |
| Blair Henley R 2025 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 20.8% | 12.2% | 3.5% | .450 | 4.58 | 17.9% | 4.8% | 170 | -0.22 | 3.80 | 187 | 76 |
| Alfonso Sanchez R 2028 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 12.5% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .346 | 4.97 | 14.0% | 5.3% | 138 | +0.16 | 4.54 | 224 | 74 |
| Paul Clemens R 2028 · 5.36 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.36 | 14.3% | 14.1% | 3.1% | .310 | 4.76 | 16.9% | 7.3% | 200 | -0.60 | 4.76 | 247 | 74 |
| Lauro Ramirez R 2026 · 6.21 FIP | 25 | SP- | 6.21 | 9.5% | 10.1% | 4.8% | .382 | 5.19 | 7.2% | -3.4% | 90 | -1.02 | 5.19 | 140 | 73 |
| Bryce Morrow R 2028 · 4.48 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.48 | 12.8% | 7.9% | 2.7% | .316 | 5.59 | 10.1% | -0.2% | 50 | +1.11 | 4.48 | 125 | 73 |
| Carlos Sano R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.98 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.6% | .282 | 9.58 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.60 | 4.98 | 105 | 73 |
| Cole Percival R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.32 | 17.5% | 9.4% | 2.7% | .296 | 3.59 | 20.5% | 9.5% | 36 | -0.73 | 3.59 | 327 | 73 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.39 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .309 | 4.74 | 18.4% | 9.4% | 172 | +0.35 | 4.39 | 353 | 73 |
| Carlson Reed R 2024 · 5.27 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.27 | 16.9% | 15.4% | 3.0% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 237 | 72 |
| Bryce Cunningham R 2024 · 5.93 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.93 | 17.4% | 15.3% | 4.3% | .228 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 101 | 72 |
| Adam Panayotovich R 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.45 | 9.6% | 9.0% | 3.7% | .375 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 121 | 72 |
| Glenn Sparkman R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.89 | 11.1% | 11.0% | 2.4% | .254 | 4.58 | 14.3% | 8.9% | 275 | -0.31 | 3.48 | 363 | 72 |
| Matthew DeRosier R 2025 · 5.49 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.49 | 15.1% | 9.1% | 4.6% | .248 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 200 | 72 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.24 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .393 | 4.44 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.20 | 4.24 | 166 | 71 |
| Michael Murray R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.45 | 16.2% | 12.9% | 2.0% | .405 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 116 | 71 |
| David Lebron R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.18 | 18.6% | 14.2% | 1.6% | .336 | 5.07 | 26.7% | 12.0% | 62 | +0.89 | 4.18 | 144 | 71 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 75 | 16.3% | 11.3% | 1.16 | 5.03 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |