Victor Mederos

P Gwinnett Stripers

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 222 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAARP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX4 levels	28	24	109	6.59	4.92	16.8%	11.5%	0.6	K 13.4% · BB 12.6% · FIP 5.51
2025	24	MIX3 levels	24	22	120	3.98	3.87	18.7%	9.3%	2.2	K 16.2% · BB 8.7% · FIP 4.06
2026	25	MIX2 levels	47	6	78	4.52	3.62	21.4%	10.6%	0.9	K 19.8% · BB 9.9% · FIP 3.73
2027PROJ	26	MLBATL	6	6	33	4.57	4.51	19.7%	10.5%	0.3
2028PROJ85% MLB	27	MLBATL	7	7	40	4.53	4.52	19.9%	10.3%	0.4
2029PROJ89% MLB	28	MLBATL	7	7	40	4.56	4.59	20.0%	10.3%	0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo90

xwOBA vs74

K%54

Form3.27 ERA (proj 4.57) · K 23.5% (proj 19.7%) · BB 11.2% (proj 10.5%) ▲ last 90d · 22 IP through Oct 27

CompsJose Samayoa (age 26) · Tyler Yates (age 26) · Mitch Neunborn (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.57

FIP4.51

K%19.7%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%9.2%

Proj IP41

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 41 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.3

Whiff%

p8030.0%

p5423.0%

xwOBA vs

p740.289

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	21	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	6	6	16	74	15	9	1	100%	2.7	15.6%	14.0%	1.6%	2.1%	5.62	4.69	—
2022	21	A+ RAW	Tri-City Dust Devils	6	6	16	74	15	9	1	100%	2.7	20.3%	12.2%	8.1%	1.4%	5.62	3.73	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	20	95	431	102	46	21	87%	4.1	19.4%	11.4%	7.9%	6.3%	5.78	6.35	-1.0
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	20	95	431	102	46	21	87%	4.1	23.7%	10.7%	13.0%	4.9%	5.78	5.28	+0.1
2024	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	28	24	109	505	85	58	15	86%	3.9	13.4%	12.6%	0.7%	3.5%	6.59	5.51	-0.1
2024	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	28	24	109	505	85	58	15	86%	3.9	13.4%	12.6%	0.7%	3.5%	6.59	5.51	-0.1
2024	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	28	24	109	505	85	58	15	86%	3.9	16.8%	11.5%	5.3%	3.0%	6.59	4.92	+0.6
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	22	120	529	99	49	11	92%	5.0	16.2%	8.7%	7.5%	2.2%	3.98	4.06	+1.9
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	22	120	529	99	49	11	92%	5.0	16.2%	8.7%	7.5%	2.2%	3.98	4.06	+1.9
2025	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	22	120	529	99	49	11	92%	5.0	18.7%	9.3%	9.5%	2.1%	3.98	3.87	+2.2
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	6	78	341	73	36	6	13%	1.7	19.8%	9.9%	9.9%	1.9%	4.52	3.73	+0.8
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	6	78	341	73	36	6	13%	1.7	19.8%	9.9%	9.9%	1.9%	4.52	3.73	+0.8
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	6	78	341	73	36	6	13%	1.7	21.4%	10.6%	10.9%	1.8%	4.52	3.62	+0.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			42	3	60	273	56	35	6	7%	1.4	20.5%	12.8%	7.7%	2.2%	5.58	4.29	+0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	ATL	6	6	33	139	27	15	3	100%	5.5	19.7%	10.5%	9.2%	2.5%	4.57	4.51	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	ATL	8	8	46	196	39	20	5	100%	5.8	19.9%	10.3%	9.6%	2.6%	4.53	4.52	+0.5
2029	28	MLB MLE	ATL	7	7	44	188	38	19	5	100%	6.4	20.0%	10.3%	9.7%	2.7%	4.56	4.59	+0.4
2030	29	MLB MLE	ATL	6	6	37	158	31	16	5	100%	6.2	19.5%	10.4%	9.1%	2.9%	4.65	4.73	+0.3
2031	30	MLB MLE	ATL	5	5	29	122	23	13	4	100%	5.8	18.8%	10.6%	8.2%	3.1%	4.81	4.92	+0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	ATL	7	7	40	169	34	17	4	100%	5.7	19.9%	10.3%	9.6%	2.6%	4.53	4.52	+0.4
2029	28	MLB CTX	ATL	7	7	40	169	34	17	5	100%	5.7	20.0%	10.3%	9.7%	2.7%	4.56	4.59	+0.4
2030	29	MLB CTX	ATL	6	6	34	144	28	15	4	100%	5.7	19.5%	10.4%	9.1%	2.9%	4.65	4.73	+0.3
2031	30	MLB CTX	ATL	4	4	27	114	21	12	4	100%	6.8	18.8%	10.6%	8.2%	3.1%	4.81	4.92	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		65	26	200	864	172	96	22	40%	3.1	19.9%	11.1%	8.8%	2.6%	4.91	4.26	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		65	26	200	866	172	96	22	40%	3.1	19.9%	11.1%	8.8%	2.6%	4.91	4.26	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		128	78	418	1880	316	203	65	61%	3.3	16.8%	10.8%	6.0%	3.4%	5.23	4.94	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	37	200	900	151	97	31	61%	3.3	16.8%	10.8%	6.0%	3.4%	5.23	4.94	+2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 43 IPFIP 4.26 → 4.50 (+0.24)K% 20.2% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.21%	—	×0.860	17.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.40%	—	×0.900	10.26%
HR / BF /BF	2.59%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.85%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.26 → 4.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASalt Lake Bees · 88 IPFIP 3.52 → 3.72 (+0.20)K% 18.6% → 16.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.59%	—	×0.860	15.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.90%	—	×0.900	8.01%
HR / BF /BF	1.57%	÷0.989	×1.100	1.75%

Result: FIP 3.52 → 3.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 15 IPFIP 2.72 → 3.42 (+0.71)K% 21.2% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.21%	—	×0.770	16.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.55%	—	×1.150	5.23%
HR / BF /BF	1.52%	÷1.000	×1.250	1.89%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.72 → 3.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 89 IPFIP 4.74 → 5.51 (+0.77)K% 16.5% → 13.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.51%	—	×0.810	13.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.48%	—	×1.100	12.63%
HR / BF /BF	2.87%	÷0.976	×1.200	3.53%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 95).

Result: FIP 4.74 → 5.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASalt Lake Bees · 9 IPFIP 3.94 → 4.45 (+0.51)K% 17.1% → 14.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.14%	—	×0.860	14.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.71%	—	×0.900	5.14%
HR / BF /BF	2.86%	÷0.886	×1.100	3.55%

Result: FIP 3.94 → 4.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 6 IPFIP 4.62 → 5.96 (+1.34)K% 20.0% → 15.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.00%	—	×0.770	15.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.00%	—	×1.150	9.20%
HR / BF /BF	4.00%	÷0.916	×1.250	5.46%

Result: FIP 4.62 → 5.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 92 IPFIP 5.18 → 6.35 (+1.17)K% 23.9% → 19.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.91%	—	×0.810	19.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.39%	—	×1.100	11.43%
HR / BF /BF	5.07%	÷0.970	×1.200	6.27%

Result: FIP 5.18 → 6.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 16 IPFIP 3.67 → 4.69 (+1.02)K% 20.3% → 15.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.27%	—	×0.770	15.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.16%	—	×1.150	13.99%
HR / BF /BF	1.35%	÷0.814	×1.250	2.07%

Result: FIP 3.67 → 4.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Victor Mederos (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.51	19.7%	10.5%	2.5%	—	4.61	19.8%	9.5%	128	+0.10	—	—	—
Jose Samayoa R 2016 · 3.44 FIP	26	SW	3.44	16.6%	9.9%	0.9%	.286	3.79	17.3%	9.4%	226	+0.35	3.44	262	79
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	77
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.11	17.6%	6.7%	206	+1.46	3.65	248	76
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	75
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	74
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	74
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	73
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	73
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	73
Trennor O'Donnell R 2024 · 3.45 FIP	23	SW	3.45	18.2%	8.6%	1.5%	.326	6.32	14.2%	0.6%	44	+2.87	3.45	107	73
Danny Kirwin R 2024 · 4.19 FIP	24	SW	4.19	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	5.33	16.8%	4.6%	91	+1.14	4.16	161	73
Noah Bremer R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	25	SW	4.39	18.0%	9.4%	2.9%	.292	5.82	13.1%	1.2%	46	+1.43	3.19	271	73
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	72
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	72
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	72
David Griffin R 2022 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	16.6%	9.8%	3.2%	.285	5.83	14.2%	5.0%	81	+1.12	4.43	239	72
Denny Bautista R 2006 · 4.71 FIP	25	SP-	4.71	13.9%	10.8%	2.6%	.298	4.58	17.5%	3.3%	74	-0.13	3.38	238	72
Bryce Conley R 2021 · 4.31 FIP	26	SW	4.31	17.9%	12.2%	2.2%	.285	4.22	16.4%	5.3%	48	-0.09	4.22	560	72
Sam Lewis R 2018 · 4.33 FIP	26	SW	4.33	16.7%	9.6%	2.6%	.323	3.41	21.0%	10.2%	48	-0.92	2.21	224	71
Ryan Vanderhei R 2024 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	16.4%	14.1%	0.8%	.284	4.45	17.9%	2.9%	114	+0.50	3.75	152	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	43	19.9%	11.0%	1.00	4.83
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Yorkis Perez ('02)	1.4	40	20.8%	11.8%	0.93	4.44
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71