Victor Mederos — OGILVIE

Victor Mederos P Gwinnett Stripers

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 222 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION74 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.31

FIP4.59

K%16.8%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%6.3%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 80 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†3045

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8897.2

Whiff%

p8230.3%

p5322.7%

xwOBA vs

p720.291

SL+0.5 (46%)

SI (49%)

FB-2.8 (49%)

CH-3.9 (5%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	21	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	6	6	16	74	15	9	1	100%	2.7	15.6%	14.0%	1.6%	2.1%	5.62	4.69	—
2022	21	A+ RAW	Tri-City Dust Devils	6	6	16	74	15	9	1	100%	2.7	20.3%	12.2%	8.1%	1.4%	5.62	3.73	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	20	95	431	102	46	21	87%	4.1	19.4%	11.4%	7.9%	6.3%	5.78	6.35	-1.5
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	20	95	431	102	46	21	87%	4.1	19.4%	11.4%	7.9%	6.3%	5.78	6.35	-1.5
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	20	95	431	102	46	21	87%	4.1	23.7%	10.7%	13.0%	4.9%	5.78	5.28	-0.4
2024	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	28	24	109	505	85	58	15	86%	3.9	13.4%	12.6%	0.7%	3.5%	6.59	5.51	-0.8
2024	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	28	24	109	505	85	58	15	86%	3.9	13.4%	12.6%	0.7%	3.5%	6.59	5.51	-0.8
2024	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	28	24	109	505	85	58	15	86%	3.9	16.8%	11.5%	5.3%	3.0%	6.59	4.92	-0.0
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	22	120	529	99	49	11	92%	5.0	15.8%	8.7%	7.1%	2.2%	3.98	4.10	+1.1
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	22	120	529	99	49	11	92%	5.0	15.8%	8.7%	7.1%	2.2%	3.98	4.10	+1.1
2025	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	22	120	529	99	49	11	92%	5.0	18.7%	9.3%	9.5%	2.1%	3.98	3.87	+1.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			37	3	56	253	51	32	6	8%	1.5	20.2%	12.6%	7.5%	2.4%	5.50	4.39	+0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	42	6	74	321	68	33	6	14%	1.8	19.1%	9.6%	9.5%	2.0%	4.40	3.81	+0.6
YTD	25	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	42	6	74	321	68	33	6	14%	1.8	19.1%	9.6%	9.5%	2.0%	4.40	3.81	+0.6
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AAA RAW	ATL	17	6	43	193	39	22	5	35%	2.5	20.2%	11.4%	8.8%	2.6%	5.40	4.26	—
2026	25	MLB RAW	ATL	25	0	30	128	29	11	1	0%	1.2	22.7%	8.6%	14.1%	0.8%	2.97	2.70	+0.7
SO FAR	25	MLB RAW	ATL	25	0	30	128	29	11	1	0%	1.2	22.7%	8.6%	14.1%	0.8%	2.97	2.70	+0.7
ROS	25	MLB MLE	ATL	6	0	6	25	4	3	1	0%	1.0	16.8%	10.5%	6.3%	2.9%	4.31	4.59	-0.0
ROS	25	MLB CTX	ATL	6	0	6	25	4	3	1	0%	1.0	16.8%	10.5%	6.3%	2.9%	4.31	4.59	-0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	ATL	—	—	80	346	72	36	7	—	—	20.9%	10.3%	10.6%	1.9%	4.39	3.87	+0.8
FULL	25	MLB A+C	ATL	—	—	36	153	72	36	7	—	—	47.2%	23.3%	23.9%	4.4%	9.65	4.47	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	ATL	19	19	115	486	88	48	12	100%	6.1	18.1%	9.9%	8.2%	2.5%	4.50	4.60	+0.4
2028	27	MLB MLE	ATL	20	20	117	495	91	49	13	100%	5.9	18.4%	9.8%	8.6%	2.6%	4.56	4.61	+0.4
2029	28	MLB MLE	ATL	20	20	117	495	91	49	14	100%	5.9	18.5%	9.9%	8.6%	2.7%	4.62	4.68	+0.3
2030	29	MLB MLE	ATL	19	19	112	473	85	47	14	100%	5.9	18.0%	10.0%	7.9%	2.9%	4.74	4.83	+0.1
2031	30	MLB MLE	ATL	18	18	105	445	77	46	14	100%	5.8	17.3%	10.3%	6.9%	3.1%	4.92	5.03	-0.2
2027	26	MLB CTX	ATL	18	18	109	460	83	46	12	100%	6.1	18.1%	9.9%	8.2%	2.5%	4.50	4.60	+0.4
2028	27	MLB CTX	ATL	18	18	111	469	86	46	12	100%	6.2	18.4%	9.8%	8.6%	2.6%	4.56	4.61	+0.4
2029	28	MLB CTX	ATL	18	18	111	469	87	46	13	100%	6.2	18.5%	9.9%	8.6%	2.7%	4.62	4.68	+0.3
2030	29	MLB CTX	ATL	18	18	106	448	80	45	13	100%	5.9	18.0%	10.0%	7.9%	2.9%	4.74	4.83	+0.1
2031	30	MLB CTX	ATL	17	17	100	422	73	44	13	100%	5.9	17.3%	10.3%	6.9%	3.1%	4.92	5.03	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		132	93	600	2552	466	262	70	70%	4.5	18.3%	10.3%	8.0%	2.7%	4.74	4.36	+3.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		44	31	200	850	155	87	23	70%	4.5	18.3%	10.3%	8.0%	2.7%	4.74	4.36	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		123	78	414	1860	308	200	65	63%	3.4	16.5%	10.8%	5.8%	3.5%	5.22	4.98	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	38	200	899	149	97	31	63%	3.4	16.5%	10.8%	5.8%	3.5%	5.22	4.98	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Victor Mederos (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.17	15.2%	10.8%	2.9%	—	4.63	18.3%	8.5%	350	-0.54	—	—	—
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	78
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	78
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.40	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.40	3.65	299	77
Jake Bray R 2018 · 5.37 FIP	25	SP-	5.37	15.4%	11.2%	3.9%	.294	5.65	20.5%	7.7%	61	+0.28	2.51	198	77
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.73	25.0%	14.9%	174	-0.70	2.47	304	77
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	75
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	75
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.53	17.5%	5.2%	170	-0.49	3.97	187	75
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	74
Noah Bremer R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	25	SW	4.39	18.0%	9.4%	2.9%	.292	5.82	13.1%	1.2%	46	+1.43	3.19	271	73
Zac Kristofak R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	25	SW	4.10	15.5%	8.9%	2.1%	.252	4.70	10.8%	5.0%	19	+0.60	4.10	168	73
Michael King R 2020 · 4.56 FIP	25	SW	4.56	21.5%	9.1%	3.9%	.316	2.74	28.3%	20.8%	219	-1.82	1.97	1,014	72
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	72
Greyfer Eregua R 2017 · 4.87 FIP	23	SP-	4.87	18.3%	9.3%	3.9%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	126	72
Jake Dunning R 2015 · 5.60 FIP	26	SP-	5.60	13.4%	9.6%	4.4%	.354	4.29	14.1%	2.8%	74	-1.31	4.19	120	72
Hunter Gregory R 2023 · 4.06 FIP	24	SW	4.06	20.0%	12.1%	2.0%	.322	5.11	20.1%	8.3%	161	+1.05	3.84	249	72
Michael Murray R 2019 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	16.2%	12.9%	2.0%	.405	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	116	72
Jake Christianson R 2023 · 4.00 FIP	23	SW	4.00	17.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.309	4.72	16.4%	6.1%	105	+0.72	4.00	188	71
Paul Clemens R 2015 · 5.37 FIP	27	SP-	5.37	14.3%	14.1%	3.1%	.310	4.62	16.9%	7.3%	200	-0.75	4.58	247	71
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.2	107	17.7%	10.1%	1.08	4.69
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77