Victor Mederos — OGILVIE

Victor Mederos P Gwinnett Stripers

+0.1 WAR

INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 222 lbs AAA Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 0.7 · 2027

ERA5.92

FIP4.93

xFIP6.40

SIERA5.76

K%17.8%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%7.3%

IP108

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.7peak

2027

K†4045

FB Velo

p5194.6

Whiff%

p2922.4%

p1617.3%

xwOBA vs

p170.351

SL+0.5 (46%)

SI (49%)

FB-2.8 (49%)

CH-3.9 (5%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	21	A+	Tri-City Dust Devils	6	6	16	74	15	9	1	15.6%	14.0%	2.2%	5.62	4.75	+0.0
2023	22	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	23	20	95	431	102	46	21	19.4%	11.4%	6.3%	5.78	6.37	-1.2
2024	23	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	28	24	109	505	85	58	15	13.4%	12.6%	3.5%	6.59	5.52	-0.3
2025	24	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	24	22	120	529	99	49	11	16.5%	9.7%	2.3%	3.98	4.19	+1.5
▸ 2026 Season
2026	25	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	3	1	6	34	6	7	0	—	—	—	12.00	—	—
ROS	25	MLB	ATL	43	—	43	182	32	19	5	17.8%	10.5%	3.0%	5.92	4.93	+0.0
2026 Total	25	MLB	ATL	—	—	49	216	38	26	5	17.8%	12.1%	2.5%	6.66	4.33	+0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	26	MLB	ATL	21	21	115	485	92	49	14	18.9%	10.2%	3.0%	5.22	4.80	+0.7
2028	27	MLB	ATL	21	21	118	498	95	50	15	19.2%	10.0%	3.0%	4.93	4.77	+0.7
2029	28	MLB	ATL	21	21	118	499	96	50	15	19.3%	9.9%	3.0%	4.82	4.77	+0.7
2030	29	MLB	ATL	21	21	115	487	92	49	15	18.9%	10.0%	3.1%	4.82	4.83	+0.6
2031	30	MLB	ATL	20	20	112	472	86	48	15	18.3%	10.1%	3.1%	4.88	4.92	+0.5
2032	31	MLB	ATL	20	20	108	456	81	46	15	17.7%	10.2%	3.2%	4.97	5.03	+0.3
2033	32	MLB	ATL	19	19	104	438	75	45	14	17.1%	10.3%	3.3%	5.07	5.14	+0.2
2034	33	MLB	ATL	18	18	99	418	69	44	14	16.4%	10.5%	3.4%	5.19	5.27	+0.0
2035	34	MLB	ATL	17	17	94	397	62	43	14	15.7%	10.7%	3.5%	5.32	5.41	-0.2
2036	35	MLB	ATL	16	16	89	374	56	41	13	15.0%	10.9%	3.6%	5.46	5.56	-0.4
2037	36	MLB	ATL	15	15	83	350	50	39	13	14.2%	11.2%	3.7%	5.62	5.72	-0.5
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			84	73	346	1573	256	182	59	16.3%	11.5%	3.7%	5.51	5.24	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—			49	42	200	908	148	105	34	16.3%	11.5%	3.7%	5.51	5.24	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Victor Mederos (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.93	17.8%	10.5%	3.0%	—	4.78	19.1%	9.1%	351	-0.15	—	—	—
Carlos Alvarado R 2026 · 4.87 FIP	25	SU	4.87	16.3%	10.0%	3.4%	.342	4.09	24.3%	14.8%	78	-0.78	2.67	102	90
Brad Deppermann R 2026 · 4.48 FIP	25	SU	4.48	17.1%	9.6%	2.9%	.289	3.53	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.95	1.94	131	89
Chris Kachmar R 2025 · 4.27 FIP	24	SU	4.27	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.63	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.36	4.27	328	87
David Holman R 2028 · 5.48 FIP	27	SU	5.48	15.6%	12.7%	3.8%	.324	5.48	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.00	5.37	129	86
Luis De La O R 2026 · 4.37 FIP	25	SU	4.37	17.0%	9.4%	2.8%	.370	3.72	15.3%	10.8%	81	-0.65	3.22	145	86
Tyler Burch R 2026 · 4.96 FIP	25	SU	4.96	15.0%	12.6%	2.8%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.55	119	86
Josh Hejka R 2026 · 4.67 FIP	25	SU	4.67	16.7%	10.8%	2.9%	.363	3.93	15.8%	8.7%	77	-0.74	2.91	166	85
El'Hajj Muhammad R 2026 · 4.59 FIP	25	SU	4.59	13.6%	10.0%	2.5%	.285	5.04	7.1%	-2.5%	11	+0.45	4.59	113	85
Nick Richmond R 2026 · 4.14 FIP	25	SU	4.14	17.6%	10.8%	2.1%	.323	4.58	15.9%	2.4%	60	+0.44	3.11	133	85
Will Latcham R 2026 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	18.8%	11.5%	2.6%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.49	134	84
Zach Nuding R 2026 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	12.5%	10.5%	2.4%	.236	5.04	12.6%	3.3%	106	+0.35	4.69	146	83
Derek Eitel R 2028 · 4.34 FIP	27	SU	4.34	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.29	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.05	4.00	138	83
Matt Eckelman R 2026 · 4.44 FIP	25	SU	4.44	17.8%	12.3%	2.3%	.299	5.14	14.6%	5.6%	128	+0.70	4.06	386	83
Kyle Whitten R 2026 · 5.22 FIP	25	SU	5.22	18.2%	10.8%	4.2%	.265	—	—	—	—	—	4.33	143	83
Zach Barnes R 2026 · 5.02 FIP	25	SU	5.02	15.3%	11.1%	3.3%	.350	5.75	13.3%	-10.1%	14	+0.73	4.96	145	83
Adrian Garza R 2028 · 5.48 FIP	27	SU	5.48	14.9%	10.5%	4.2%	.360	4.17	13.1%	6.5%	84	-1.31	3.95	229	83
Isrrael De La Cruz R 2026 · 4.36 FIP	25	SU	4.36	16.7%	12.5%	2.0%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	4.36	100	83
Jake Bray R 2026 · 5.34 FIP	25	SU	5.34	15.4%	11.2%	3.9%	.294	5.62	20.5%	7.7%	61	+0.28	2.60	198	82
J.B. Olson R 2025 · 5.02 FIP	24	SU	5.02	15.0%	11.1%	3.3%	.328	4.29	15.1%	7.5%	109	-0.73	3.83	212	82
Armando Ruiz R 2025 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	18.4%	11.4%	2.3%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	113	82

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2024

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-1	$0.3M	+0.2	$0.8M	+$0.5M
2027	Arb-2	$1M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2028	Arb-3	$2M	+0.7	$3M	+$0.5M
2029	Arb-4	$4M	+0.7	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$10M	+$3M