Ryan Vanderhei

P Richmond Flying Squirrels

Age 26 RHP 6'5" / 202 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	20	9	46	4.08	3.08	23.3%	11.2%	—	K 16.4% · BB 14.1% · FIP 3.95
2025	24	A+SF	35	0	54	4.33	4.38	18.9%	13.2%	—	K 14.6% · BB 15.1% · FIP 5.23
2026	25	MIX2 levels	43	0	60	2.39	3.00	26.4%	13.4%	—	K 20.9% · BB 14.9% · FIP 3.75
2027PROJ	26	MLBSF	1	0	1	5.58	5.58	17.2%	17.1%	-0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBSF	18	0	19	5.48	5.50	17.8%	16.4%	-0.2
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBSF	24	0	25	5.45	5.49	18.1%	16.0%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control30Command30

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 0.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsTrey Haley (age 26) · Jake Gilbert (age 25) · Juan Paniagua (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139131vR 123

ERA5.58

FIP5.58

K%17.2%

BB%17.1%

K-BB%0.1%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL3030

CMD3030

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	9	46	206	48	23	2	45%	2.3	16.4%	14.1%	2.3%	0.8%	4.08	3.95	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	9	46	206	48	23	2	45%	2.3	16.4%	14.1%	2.3%	0.8%	4.08	3.95	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	9	46	206	48	23	2	45%	2.3	23.3%	11.2%	12.1%	1.0%	4.08	3.08	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	35	0	54	243	46	32	5	0%	1.5	14.6%	15.1%	-0.6%	2.6%	4.33	5.23	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	35	0	54	243	46	32	5	0%	1.5	14.6%	15.1%	-0.6%	2.6%	4.33	5.23	—
2025	24	A+ RAW	Eugene Emeralds	35	0	54	243	46	32	5	0%	1.5	18.9%	13.2%	5.8%	2.1%	4.33	4.38	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	60	254	67	34	2	0%	1.4	20.9%	14.9%	6.0%	1.0%	2.39	3.75	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	60	254	67	34	2	0%	1.4	20.9%	14.9%	6.0%	1.0%	2.39	3.75	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	60	254	67	34	2	0%	1.4	26.4%	13.4%	13.0%	0.8%	2.39	3.00	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	SF	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	17.2%	17.1%	0.1%	2.5%	5.58	5.58	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	SF	47	0	49	209	37	34	5	0%	1.1	17.8%	16.4%	1.4%	2.6%	5.48	5.50	-0.5
2029	28	MLB MLE	SF	39	0	41	174	32	28	5	0%	1.1	18.1%	16.0%	2.1%	2.8%	5.45	5.49	-0.4
2030	29	MLB MLE	SF	35	0	37	156	28	25	5	0%	1.1	18.1%	15.9%	2.2%	2.9%	5.50	5.56	-0.4
2028	27	MLB CTX	SF	18	0	19	80	14	13	2	0%	1.1	17.8%	16.4%	1.4%	2.6%	5.48	5.50	-0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	SF	24	0	25	106	19	17	3	0%	1.0	18.1%	16.0%	2.1%	2.8%	5.45	5.49	-0.3
2030	29	MLB CTX	SF	25	0	26	110	20	17	3	0%	1.0	18.1%	15.9%	2.2%	2.9%	5.50	5.56	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		66	0	69	292	53	47	8	0%	1.0	18.0%	16.1%	2.0%	2.8%	5.48	5.14	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	153	136	23	0%	1.1	18.0%	16.1%	2.0%	2.8%	5.48	5.14	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		98	9	161	703	122	104	10	9%	1.6	17.4%	14.8%	2.6%	1.5%	3.53	4.32	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		122	11	200	875	152	129	13	9%	1.6	17.4%	14.8%	2.6%	1.5%	3.53	4.32	-2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 34 IPFIP 3.63 → 4.30 (+0.67)K% 23.7% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.68%	—	×0.810	19.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.11%	—	×1.100	18.82%
HR / BF /BF	0.66%	÷1.000	×1.200	0.79%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.63 → 4.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Eugene Emeralds · 26 IPFIP 2.07 → 2.94 (+0.87)K% 30.4% → 23.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.39%	—	×0.770	23.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.84%	—	×1.150	9.02%
HR / BF /BF	0.98%	÷1.000	×1.250	1.23%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.07 → 2.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Eugene Emeralds · 54 IPFIP 4.30 → 5.23 (+0.93)K% 18.9% → 14.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.93%	—	×0.770	14.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.17%	—	×1.150	15.14%
HR / BF /BF	2.06%	÷0.980	×1.250	2.62%

Result: FIP 4.30 → 5.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ASan Jose Giants · 38 IPFIP 3.07 → 3.95 (+0.88)K% 22.2% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.16%	—	×0.740	16.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.98%	—	×1.180	14.13%
HR / BF /BF	0.60%	÷0.959	×1.300	0.81%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 3.07 → 3.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Giants · 9 IPFIP 3.10 → 4.37 (+1.27)K% 28.2% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.21%	—	×0.680	19.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.69%	—	×1.250	9.62%
HR / BF /BF	2.56%	÷1.178	×1.400	3.05%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 136).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 4.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Vanderhei (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.58	17.2%	17.1%	2.5%	—	5.51	18.0%	1.9%	128	-0.07	—	—	—
Trey Haley R 2016 · 4.98 FIP	26	SU	4.98	14.0%	16.5%	1.8%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.14	111	86
Jake Gilbert R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	18.2%	16.2%	1.9%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	103	86
Juan Paniagua R 2016 · 4.57 FIP	26	SU	4.57	17.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.246	4.75	12.9%	-1.0%	29	+0.18	4.57	151	85
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	85
Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.19	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.09	5.19	116	84
Gregory Infante R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	28	SU	4.54	16.9%	15.7%	1.6%	.290	3.78	21.3%	12.7%	181	-0.76	2.97	230	83
Luis García R 2013 · 4.92 FIP	26	SU	4.92	16.7%	16.7%	2.0%	.270	3.68	20.3%	9.3%	151	-1.24	2.33	662	82
Jeff Soptic R 2016 · 5.52 FIP	25	SU	5.52	13.6%	15.3%	3.0%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	5.30	124	82
Cole Hillier R 2024 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	16.9%	14.7%	2.0%	.297	4.45	18.1%	4.5%	111	-0.19	3.80	169	82
Roman Phansalkar R 2024 · 5.39 FIP	26	SU	5.39	15.8%	13.2%	3.6%	.294	4.33	18.2%	3.7%	31	-1.06	4.33	164	81
Rob Huber R 2016 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	117	81
Jake Gozzo R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	26	SU	5.04	16.2%	17.6%	2.0%	.227	4.32	15.6%	-1.3%	32	-0.72	4.32	162	81
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	81
Mike Hepple R 2016 · 5.75 FIP	26	SU	5.75	11.1%	18.5%	2.3%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	116	81
Livan Reinoso R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	25	SU	4.90	15.1%	17.7%	1.5%	.229	5.67	16.1%	-2.1%	99	+0.77	4.36	219	81
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	80
Matt Lollis R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	25	SU	4.95	19.2%	14.5%	3.0%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	120	80
Jesús Reyes R 2019 · 5.71 FIP	26	SU	5.71	15.9%	15.7%	3.6%	.283	5.11	17.5%	5.6%	118	-0.60	3.85	554	80
Justin Courtney R 2022 · 5.11 FIP	26	SU	5.11	16.8%	12.8%	3.3%	.331	8.63	18.4%	7.1%	21	+3.52	4.58	108	80
Cody Scroggins R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	25	SU	4.50	20.5%	16.2%	2.0%	.351	3.78	14.2%	4.6%	18	-0.72	3.78	108	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	49	17.7%	16.5%	1.03	5.51
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
John Parrish ('10)	1.4	46	17.6%	14.8%	0.88	4.51
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*