Livan Reinoso

P Pensacola Blue Wahoos

Age 28 RHP 6'1" / 225 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	A+LAD	41	54	3.98	4.13	19.6%	15.4%	—	K 15.1% · BB 17.7% · FIP 4.90
2025	26	MIX2 levels	38	54	4.14	4.87	19.9%	19.1%	—	K 15.9% · BB 21.2% · FIP 5.54
2026	27	AAMIA	31	45	6.20	5.10	20.1%	13.2%	—	K 16.3% · BB 14.6% · FIP 5.83
2027PROJ	28	MLBMIA	1	1	6.47	6.47	14.6%	20.0%	-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	29	MLBMIA	12	13	6.34	6.39	15.2%	19.1%	-0.3
2029PROJ51% MLB	30	MLBMIA	16	17	6.32	6.41	15.5%	18.7%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control20Command20

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsMike Hepple (age 26) · Jordan Gore (age 27) · Vic Black (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 156148vR 140

ERA6.47

FIP6.47

K%14.6%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%-5.4%

Proj IP59

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL2020

CMD2020

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	0	8	30	7	5	0	0%	1.1	23.3%	16.7%	6.7%	0.0%	3.52	3.24	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	0	8	30	7	5	0	0%	1.1	23.3%	16.7%	6.7%	0.0%	3.52	3.23	—
2023	24	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	38	0	66	305	83	51	2	0%	1.7	20.1%	19.7%	0.4%	0.8%	4.39	4.36	—
2023	24	A RAW	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	38	0	66	305	83	51	2	0%	1.7	27.2%	16.7%	10.5%	0.7%	4.39	3.30	—
2024	25	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	41	0	54	240	47	37	3	0%	1.3	15.1%	17.7%	-2.6%	1.5%	3.98	4.90	—
2024	25	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	41	0	54	240	47	37	3	0%	1.3	15.1%	17.7%	-2.6%	1.5%	3.98	4.90	—
2024	25	A+ RAW	Great Lakes Loons	41	0	54	240	47	37	3	0%	1.3	19.6%	15.4%	4.2%	1.2%	3.98	4.13	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	54	251	50	48	4	0%	1.4	15.9%	21.2%	-5.3%	2.0%	4.14	5.54	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	54	251	50	48	4	0%	1.4	15.9%	21.2%	-5.3%	2.0%	4.14	5.54	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	54	251	50	48	4	0%	1.4	19.9%	19.1%	0.8%	1.6%	4.14	4.87	—
2026	27	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	31	0	45	204	41	27	7	0%	1.5	16.3%	14.6%	1.7%	4.1%	6.20	5.83	—
2026	27	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	31	0	45	204	41	27	7	0%	1.5	16.3%	14.6%	1.7%	4.1%	6.20	5.83	—
2026	27	AA RAW	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	31	0	45	204	41	27	7	0%	1.5	20.1%	13.2%	6.9%	3.4%	6.20	5.10	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	MIA	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	14.6%	20.0%	-5.4%	3.1%	6.47	6.47	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	MIA	39	0	41	172	26	33	6	0%	1.0	15.2%	19.1%	-3.9%	3.2%	6.34	6.39	-0.8
2029	30	MLB MLE	MIA	31	0	33	139	22	26	5	0%	1.1	15.5%	18.7%	-3.2%	3.4%	6.32	6.41	-0.6
2028	29	MLB CTX	MIA	12	0	13	55	8	11	2	0%	1.1	15.2%	19.1%	-3.9%	3.2%	6.34	6.39	-0.3
2029	30	MLB CTX	MIA	16	0	17	72	11	13	2	0%	1.1	15.5%	18.7%	-3.2%	3.4%	6.32	6.41	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		28	0	30	125	19	24	4	0%	1.1	15.4%	18.9%	-3.5%	3.3%	6.33	6.02	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	128	162	27	0%	1.1	15.4%	18.9%	-3.5%	3.3%	6.33	6.02	-3.4
Career	—	MLE		155	0	227	1030	178	191	20	0%	1.5	17.3%	18.5%	-1.3%	1.9%	4.56	5.03	-1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		137	0	200	907	157	168	17	0%	1.5	17.3%	18.5%	-1.3%	1.9%	4.56	5.03	-4.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 45 IPFIP 4.96 → 5.83 (+0.87)K% 20.1% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.10%	—	×0.810	16.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.24%	—	×1.100	14.56%
HR / BF /BF	3.43%	÷1.000	×1.200	4.12%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.96 → 5.83, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AATulsa Drillers · 41 IPFIP 5.26 → 6.11 (+0.86)K% 18.9% → 15.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.95%	—	×0.810	15.35%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	20.53%	—	×1.100	22.58%
HR / BF /BF	2.11%	÷0.957	×1.200	2.64%

Result: FIP 5.26 → 6.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Great Lakes Loons · 13 IPFIP 3.03 → 3.76 (+0.73)K% 23.0% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.95%	—	×0.770	17.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.75%	—	×1.150	16.97%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.992	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 98).

Result: FIP 3.03 → 3.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Great Lakes Loons · 54 IPFIP 4.09 → 4.90 (+0.81)K% 19.6% → 15.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.58%	—	×0.770	15.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.42%	—	×1.150	17.73%
HR / BF /BF	1.25%	÷1.036	×1.250	1.51%

Result: FIP 4.09 → 4.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 66 IPFIP 3.28 → 4.36 (+1.08)K% 27.2% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.21%	—	×0.740	20.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.72%	—	×1.180	19.73%
HR / BF /BF	0.66%	÷1.025	×1.300	0.83%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 105).

Result: FIP 3.28 → 4.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Livan Reinoso (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.47	14.6%	20.0%	3.1%	—	6.40	15.4%	-3.6%	74	-0.07	—	—	—
Mike Hepple R 2016 · 5.75 FIP	26	SU	5.75	11.1%	18.5%	2.3%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	116	83
Jordan Gore R 2022 · 5.37 FIP	27	SU	5.37	15.2%	18.5%	2.2%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	113	79
Vic Black R 2015 · 5.28 FIP	27	SU	5.28	17.5%	19.3%	2.2%	.358	6.03	9.0%	-11.6%	29	+0.75	3.16	107	76
Connor Law R 2021 · 6.15 FIP	27	SU	6.15	16.2%	17.2%	4.1%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	110	75
Dylan Rheault R 2021 · 5.76 FIP	29	SU	5.76	12.1%	18.3%	2.5%	.357	—	—	—	—	—	3.88	198	75
Ted Stuka R 2023 · 7.45 FIP	26	SU	7.45	15.2%	36.8%	1.8%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	5.36	105	75
Chris Jefferson R 2024 · 5.65 FIP	27	SU	5.65	16.4%	13.6%	4.0%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	140	75
Fernando Villalobos R 2015 · 5.33 FIP	30	SU	5.33	8.3%	13.1%	2.3%	.365	4.36	11.4%	3.1%	109	-0.97	4.00	152	74
Hunter Dollander R 2023 · 6.77 FIP	26	SU	6.77	17.6%	18.3%	5.2%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	106	74
Beck Wheeler R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	15.3%	12.2%	3.7%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	173	74
Roman Phansalkar R 2024 · 5.39 FIP	26	SU	5.39	15.8%	13.2%	3.6%	.294	4.33	18.2%	3.7%	31	-1.06	4.33	164	74
Cre Finfrock R 2022 · 6.31 FIP	26	SU	6.31	16.7%	25.2%	2.6%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	103	74
Oscar Verdugo R 2017 · 6.31 FIP	27	SU	6.31	10.3%	13.8%	4.2%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	5.01	144	73
Stevie Branche R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	27	SU	5.67	19.3%	17.6%	3.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	3.23	162	73
Harrison Cooney R 2018 · 6.60 FIP	26	SU	6.60	18.8%	21.9%	4.2%	.237	—	—	—	—	—	4.65	186	72
Nick Highberger R 2022 · 5.37 FIP	28	SU	5.37	14.9%	18.2%	2.2%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	249	71
Tyler Davis R 2024 · 6.02 FIP	25	SU	6.02	21.0%	18.8%	4.2%	.317	3.78	21.9%	10.2%	111	-2.24	3.20	137	70
Cory Rasmus R 2016 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	14.9%	13.2%	3.4%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	2.34	138	70
Jesus Barraza R 2019 · 5.96 FIP	28	SU	5.96	8.7%	13.5%	3.4%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.24	164	70
Brian Glowicki R 2022 · 5.39 FIP	27	SU	5.39	18.2%	15.9%	3.3%	.229	—	—	—	—	—	2.31	189	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	44	15.0%	19.4%	1.24	6.39
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Lloyd Allen ('69-'75, -5 WAR*)	1.5	59	19.8%*	13.9%*	0.79*	5.99*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*