Nick Nastrini — OGILVIE

Nick Nastrini P Tulsa Drillers

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 220 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 154146vR 138

ERA5.96

FIP6.42

K%20.2%

BB%19.5%

K-BB%0.6%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL2020

CMD2020

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3893.7

Whiff%

p7228.8%

p1014.9%

xwOBA vs

p100.382

SL (36%)

CU (9%)

CH-3.2 (10%)

FB-4.8 (45%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	7	14	58	32	7	2	100%	2.0	40.4%	15.0%	25.3%	4.9%	1.93	4.28	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	7	14	58	32	7	2	100%	2.0	55.2%	12.1%	43.1%	3.4%	1.93	1.89	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	117	482	169	55	17	100%	4.3	27.3%	13.0%	14.4%	4.3%	3.93	4.81	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	117	482	169	55	17	100%	4.3	35.1%	11.4%	23.7%	3.5%	3.93	3.51	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	115	499	139	54	11	100%	4.6	22.7%	11.5%	11.2%	2.5%	4.08	4.03	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	115	499	139	54	11	100%	4.6	22.7%	11.5%	11.2%	2.5%	4.08	4.03	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	115	499	139	54	11	100%	4.6	27.9%	10.8%	17.0%	2.2%	4.08	3.34	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	26	121	566	124	88	24	87%	4.0	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	4.5%	5.82	5.80	-1.2
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	26	121	566	124	88	24	87%	4.0	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	4.5%	5.82	5.80	-1.2
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	26	121	566	124	88	24	87%	4.0	21.9%	15.5%	6.4%	4.2%	5.82	5.82	-1.2
2025	25	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Comets	24	7	47	234	49	50	9	29%	2.0	17.4%	19.2%	-1.9%	4.4%	8.56	6.50	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Comets	24	7	47	234	49	50	9	29%	2.0	17.4%	19.2%	-1.9%	4.4%	8.56	6.50	—
2025	25	AAA RAW	Oklahoma City Comets	24	7	47	234	49	50	9	29%	2.0	20.9%	21.4%	-0.4%	3.8%	8.56	6.67	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			9	8	36	174	26	36	7	89%	4.0	14.9%	20.7%	-5.7%	4.0%	7.07	7.22	-0.9
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	1	0	0	3	0	3	0	0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	26	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	1	0	0	3	0	3	0	0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
ROS	26	MLB MLE	LAD	6	0	6	27	5	5	1	0%	1.1	20.2%	19.5%	0.6%	3.9%	5.96	6.42	-0.1
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	LAD	—	—	6	30	5	8	1	—	—	18.1%	27.7%	-9.6%	3.5%	7.39	6.42	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	LAD	24	24	143	602	122	111	23	100%	5.9	20.3%	18.4%	1.9%	3.9%	6.04	6.24	-2.1
2028	28	MLB MLE	LAD	24	24	143	602	122	107	24	100%	5.9	20.3%	17.8%	2.5%	3.9%	6.06	6.17	-2.0
2029	29	MLB MLE	LAD	23	23	136	575	114	101	23	100%	5.9	19.8%	17.5%	2.3%	4.0%	6.13	6.24	-2.0
2030	30	MLB MLE	LAD	21	21	128	540	104	95	23	100%	6.1	19.2%	17.6%	1.6%	4.2%	6.27	6.40	-2.1
2027	27	MLB CTX	LAD	10	10	61	258	52	47	10	100%	6.1	20.3%	18.4%	1.9%	3.9%	6.04	6.24	-0.9
2028	28	MLB CTX	LAD	15	15	89	376	76	67	15	100%	5.9	20.3%	17.8%	2.5%	3.9%	6.06	6.17	-1.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	LAD	16	16	99	418	83	73	17	100%	6.2	19.8%	17.5%	2.3%	4.0%	6.13	6.24	-1.4
2030	30	MLB CTX	LAD	17	17	102	431	83	76	18	100%	6.0	19.2%	17.6%	1.6%	4.2%	6.27	6.40	-1.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		68	67	387	1659	321	300	67	99%	5.7	19.3%	18.1%	1.3%	4.0%	6.22	5.97	-4.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	34	200	857	166	155	35	98%	5.7	19.3%	18.1%	1.3%	4.0%	6.22	5.97	-2.3
Career	—	MLE		113	92	413	1839	416	256	72	81%	3.7	22.6%	13.9%	8.7%	3.9%	4.99	5.10	-9.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	45	200	890	201	124	35	81%	3.7	22.6%	13.9%	8.7%	3.9%	4.99	5.10	-3.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Nastrini (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.42	20.2%	19.5%	3.9%	—	6.22	20.2%	2.3%	421	-0.20	—	—	—
Deylen Miley R 2023 · 5.34 FIP	25	SP-	5.34	22.3%	17.5%	3.5%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.07	185	72
Mason Pelio R 2023 · 6.38 FIP	23	SP-	6.38	13.3%	17.4%	4.0%	.255	5.88	9.0%	-12.8%	26	-0.50	5.88	122	70
Carlos Tavera R 2023 · 5.86 FIP	24	SP-	5.86	19.6%	17.3%	4.0%	.267	5.23	18.9%	5.6%	114	-0.63	3.91	263	68
Ben Casparius R 2023 · 5.73 FIP	24	SP-	5.73	20.1%	13.0%	4.9%	.272	3.66	21.8%	11.9%	177	-2.07	3.36	374	65
M.D. Johnson R 2023 · 5.64 FIP	26	SP	5.64	16.4%	12.7%	4.2%	.254	3.52	14.6%	4.7%	67	-2.12	3.52	395	65
Bubba Derby R 2019 · 5.42 FIP	25	SP-	5.42	18.0%	10.1%	4.7%	.287	5.14	19.4%	11.0%	71	-0.28	3.68	550	62
Ryan Garcia R 2023 · 6.41 FIP	25	SP	6.41	20.2%	15.4%	5.6%	.308	5.32	18.7%	7.6%	217	-1.09	3.74	362	62
Tanner Burns R 2023 · 5.27 FIP	24	SW	5.27	19.4%	12.5%	4.0%	.257	5.00	17.7%	4.6%	131	-0.27	4.34	382	62
Andre Jackson R 2022 · 5.50 FIP	26	SP	5.50	18.8%	18.0%	3.1%	.279	4.72	22.3%	12.1%	100	-0.78	3.84	459	62
Levi Stoudt R 2023 · 6.26 FIP	25	SP-	6.26	13.0%	12.1%	5.0%	.280	6.17	15.0%	4.1%	110	-0.09	4.35	395	62
Andrew Quezada R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	26	SP-	5.33	14.4%	9.5%	4.1%	.344	4.92	12.5%	5.0%	173	-0.41	4.40	412	61
Carson Rudd R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	21.0%	13.0%	4.7%	.274	4.61	17.5%	-0.1%	110	-0.92	3.39	242	61
Brett Conine R 2022 · 5.68 FIP	25	SW	5.68	14.8%	11.1%	4.4%	.345	—	—	—	—	—	3.21	319	60
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2015 · 5.24 FIP	27	SP-	5.24	11.6%	9.8%	3.4%	.263	4.28	15.3%	5.2%	167	-0.96	4.01	272	60
Baron Stuart R 2023 · 5.24 FIP	24	SP	5.24	14.5%	12.2%	3.3%	.266	4.23	17.6%	4.1%	205	-1.01	3.57	306	59
Osmer Morales R 2018 · 5.33 FIP	25	SP	5.33	16.9%	12.4%	3.8%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.14	429	59
Blake Beers R 2023 · 5.32 FIP	25	SP	5.32	16.9%	10.2%	4.3%	.317	4.75	17.9%	9.6%	208	-0.57	4.35	416	59
Chance Kirby R 2021 · 5.83 FIP	26	SP-	5.83	15.1%	10.0%	5.0%	.242	4.59	18.5%	11.2%	138	-1.24	4.14	325	58
Justin Garza R 2019 · 5.26 FIP	25	SP-	5.26	15.7%	12.0%	3.6%	.317	4.51	25.8%	12.8%	94	-0.75	3.74	537	58
Jeff Criswell R 2023 · 6.02 FIP	24	SP	6.02	19.7%	10.9%	5.8%	.324	4.74	24.8%	15.3%	109	-1.28	4.14	349	58

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	138	20.0%	18.2%	1.55	6.09
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64
Brandon Finnegan ('18)	1.2	80	19.7%	11.6%	1.57	4.19
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Caleb Smith ('22)	2.1	104	25.1%	11.0%	1.67	4.47