Nick Nastrini
P
Tulsa Drillers
+0.0
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'3" / 220 lbs
AA
ERA6.33
FIP5.83
xFIP7.36
SIERA7.18
K%20.3%
BB%16.2%
K-BB%4.2%
IP119
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
STUF5555
CTRL2020
CMD2020
K†5050
FB Velo
p3893.7
Whiff%
p7228.8%
K%
p1014.9%
xwOBA vs
p100.382
SL (36%)
CU (9%)
CH-3.2 (10%)
FB-4.8 (45%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | A | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | 7 | 7 | 14 | 58 | 32 | 7 | 2 | 40.4% | 15.0% | 4.9% | 1.93 | 4.30 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 22 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 27 | 27 | 117 | 482 | 169 | 55 | 17 | 27.3% | 13.0% | 4.3% | 3.93 | 4.80 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 25 | 25 | 115 | 499 | 139 | 54 | 11 | 22.9% | 11.8% | 2.5% | 4.08 | 4.05 | +1.6 |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 30 | 26 | 121 | 566 | 124 | 88 | 24 | 19.8% | 16.0% | 4.4% | 5.82 | 5.88 | -0.8 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Oklahoma City Comets | 24 | 7 | 47 | 234 | 49 | 50 | 9 | 18.4% | 22.4% | 4.4% | 8.56 | 6.82 | -1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | LAD | 22 | 22 | 119 | 503 | 107 | 99 | 20 | 21.3% | 19.7% | 3.9% | 6.89 | 6.34 | -1.4 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 119 | 506 | 107 | 102 | 20 | 21.2% | 20.2% | 3.9% | 6.97 | 6.34 | -1.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 22 | 22 | 122 | 516 | 111 | 96 | 20 | 21.4% | 18.5% | 3.9% | 6.35 | 6.14 | -1.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 22 | 22 | 122 | 517 | 111 | 92 | 20 | 21.4% | 17.8% | 3.8% | 6.09 | 6.02 | -1.0 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 22 | 22 | 120 | 505 | 106 | 88 | 19 | 21.0% | 17.3% | 3.8% | 6.00 | 6.01 | -1.0 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | LAD | 21 | 21 | 116 | 490 | 100 | 84 | 19 | 20.4% | 17.2% | 3.9% | 6.01 | 6.05 | -1.0 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | LAD | 20 | 20 | 112 | 473 | 94 | 82 | 19 | 19.9% | 17.3% | 3.9% | 6.10 | 6.16 | -1.1 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | LAD | 20 | 20 | 108 | 454 | 87 | 79 | 18 | 19.2% | 17.5% | 4.0% | 6.20 | 6.27 | -1.2 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | LAD | 19 | 19 | 103 | 434 | 81 | 76 | 18 | 18.6% | 17.6% | 4.1% | 6.32 | 6.40 | -1.3 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | LAD | 18 | 18 | 98 | 412 | 74 | 74 | 17 | 17.9% | 17.8% | 4.2% | 6.45 | 6.54 | -1.4 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | LAD | 17 | 17 | 92 | 388 | 67 | 70 | 17 | 17.1% | 18.1% | 4.3% | 6.59 | 6.69 | -1.5 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | LAD | 16 | 16 | 86 | 363 | 59 | 67 | 16 | 16.4% | 18.3% | 4.4% | 6.75 | 6.85 | -1.6 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 113 | 92 | 413 | 1839 | 425 | 273 | 72 | 23.1% | 14.9% | 3.9% | 4.99 | 5.17 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 55 | 45 | 200 | 890 | 206 | 132 | 35 | 23.1% | 14.9% | 3.9% | 4.99 | 5.17 | +0.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nick Nastrini (OGILVIE) | — | — | 6.34 | 21.3% | 19.7% | 3.9% | — | 6.06 | 21.3% | 3.4% | 364 | -0.28 | — | — | — |
| Deylen Miley R 2025 · 5.26 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.26 | 22.3% | 17.5% | 3.3% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.07 | 185 | 81 |
| M.D. Johnson R 2026 · 5.63 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.63 | 16.4% | 12.7% | 4.2% | .254 | 3.52 | 14.6% | 4.7% | 67 | -2.11 | 3.52 | 395 | 75 |
| Justin Armbruester R 2025 · 5.93 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.93 | 20.6% | 13.0% | 5.3% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.52 | 358 | 74 |
| Jarrod Cande R 2024 · 5.43 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.43 | 16.7% | 11.0% | 4.3% | .256 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.32 | 292 | 67 |
| Tommy Romero R 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.15 | 18.0% | 15.7% | 2.9% | .302 | 4.91 | 17.3% | 4.8% | 147 | -0.24 | 2.76 | 721 | 67 |
| Bobby Miller R 2026 · 5.24 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.24 | 17.9% | 15.4% | 3.1% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.41 | 471 | 67 |
| Connor Staine R 2024 · 5.31 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.31 | 14.0% | 13.0% | 3.2% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 291 | 67 |
| Austin Hansen R 2026 · 6.56 FIP | 26 | SP- | 6.56 | 18.6% | 16.7% | 5.3% | .360 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 204 | 66 |
| Nick Payero R 2025 · 5.80 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.80 | 16.6% | 12.0% | 4.7% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.22 | 178 | 66 |
| Osmer Morales R 2025 · 5.34 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.34 | 16.9% | 12.4% | 3.8% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.14 | 429 | 66 |
| Bubba Derby R 2025 · 5.43 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.43 | 18.0% | 10.1% | 4.7% | .287 | 5.12 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 71 | -0.31 | 3.68 | 550 | 66 |
| Kaleb Roper R 2026 · 5.69 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.69 | 17.3% | 11.8% | 4.7% | .398 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.69 | 146 | 66 |
| Brett Conine R 2025 · 5.70 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.70 | 14.8% | 11.1% | 4.4% | .345 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 319 | 65 |
| Levi Stoudt R 2026 · 6.58 FIP | 26 | SP- | 6.58 | 16.4% | 12.2% | 6.0% | .275 | 5.35 | 13.5% | 0.3% | 25 | -1.23 | 4.35 | 395 | 65 |
| Tommy Mace R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.26 | 14.6% | 16.9% | 2.3% | .232 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.89 | 461 | 65 |
| Brady Feigl R 2025 · 5.32 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.32 | 19.4% | 9.6% | 4.8% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 257 | 64 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2026 · 5.36 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.36 | 14.4% | 9.5% | 4.2% | .344 | 4.99 | 12.9% | 4.7% | 173 | -0.37 | 4.37 | 412 | 64 |
| Ryan Cardona R 2025 · 5.24 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.24 | 12.0% | 14.9% | 2.3% | .237 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 367 | 64 |
| Braxton Hyde R 2024 · 5.67 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.67 | 14.0% | 12.3% | 4.0% | .345 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 198 | 63 |
| Chance Kirby R 2026 · 5.77 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.77 | 15.1% | 10.0% | 4.9% | .242 | 4.61 | 18.5% | 11.2% | 138 | -1.16 | 4.16 | 325 | 63 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.