Nick Nastrini
P
Tulsa Drillers
Age 26
RHP
6'3" / 220 lbs
AA
2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 141 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 164155vR 146
ERA6.08
FIP6.62
K%20.8%
BB%21.5%
K-BB%-0.7%
ROS IP141
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 141 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p3893.7
Whiff%
p7228.8%
K%
p1014.9%
xwOBA vs
p100.382
SL (36%)
CU (9%)
CH-3.2 (10%)
FB-4.8 (45%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 7 | 14 | 58 | 32 | 7 | 2 | 100% | 2.0 | 40.4% | 15.0% | 25.3% | 5.1% | 1.93 | 4.39 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 7 | 14 | 58 | 32 | 7 | 2 | 100% | 2.0 | 55.2% | 12.1% | 43.1% | 3.4% | 1.93 | 1.89 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 117 | 482 | 169 | 55 | 17 | 100% | 4.3 | 27.3% | 13.0% | 14.4% | 4.3% | 3.93 | 4.79 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 117 | 482 | 169 | 55 | 17 | 100% | 4.3 | 35.1% | 11.4% | 23.7% | 3.5% | 3.93 | 3.51 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 115 | 499 | 139 | 54 | 11 | 100% | 4.6 | 22.9% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 2.4% | 4.08 | 4.01 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 115 | 499 | 139 | 54 | 11 | 100% | 4.6 | 27.9% | 10.8% | 17.0% | 2.2% | 4.08 | 3.34 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 26 | 121 | 566 | 124 | 88 | 24 | 87% | 4.0 | 19.8% | 16.0% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.82 | 5.87 | -0.7 |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 26 | 121 | 566 | 124 | 88 | 24 | 87% | 4.0 | 21.9% | 15.5% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 5.82 | 5.82 | -0.6 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Oklahoma City Comets | 24 | 7 | 47 | 234 | 49 | 50 | 9 | 29% | 2.0 | 18.4% | 22.4% | -4.0% | 4.6% | 8.56 | 6.93 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Oklahoma City Comets | 24 | 7 | 47 | 234 | 49 | 50 | 9 | 29% | 2.0 | 20.9% | 21.4% | -0.4% | 3.8% | 8.56 | 6.67 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | LAD | 134 | 0 | 141 | 594 | 123 | 128 | 24 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 21.5% | -0.7% | 4.0% | 6.08 | 6.62 | -2.0 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | LAD | 13 | 0 | 14 | 59 | 12 | 13 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.8% | 21.5% | -0.7% | 4.0% | 6.08 | 6.62 | -0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 141 | 597 | 123 | 131 | 24 | — | — | 20.7% | 21.9% | -1.2% | 3.9% | 6.14 | 6.62 | -2.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 14 | 59 | 12 | 13 | 2 | — | — | 20.8% | 21.5% | -0.7% | 4.0% | 6.08 | 6.24 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 24 | 24 | 143 | 602 | 126 | 122 | 24 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.9% | 20.2% | 0.7% | 3.9% | 6.19 | 6.42 | -1.7 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 24 | 24 | 143 | 602 | 125 | 117 | 24 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.8% | 19.4% | 1.4% | 3.9% | 6.22 | 6.35 | -1.6 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 10 | 10 | 61 | 258 | 54 | 52 | 10 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.9% | 20.2% | 0.7% | 3.9% | 6.19 | 6.42 | -1.3 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 15 | 15 | 89 | 376 | 78 | 73 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.8% | 19.4% | 1.4% | 3.9% | 6.22 | 6.35 | -1.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 47 | 33 | 200 | 866 | 170 | 174 | 34 | 70% | 4.2 | 19.7% | 20.0% | -0.4% | 4.0% | 6.35 | 6.15 | -1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 33 | 200 | 868 | 170 | 174 | 34 | 70% | 4.2 | 19.7% | 20.0% | -0.4% | 4.0% | 6.35 | 6.15 | -1.8 | ||
| Career | — | 113 | 92 | 413 | 1839 | 425 | 273 | 72 | 81% | 3.7 | 23.1% | 14.9% | 8.2% | 3.9% | 4.99 | 5.17 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 55 | 45 | 200 | 890 | 206 | 132 | 35 | 81% | 3.7 | 23.1% | 14.9% | 8.2% | 3.9% | 4.99 | 5.17 | +0.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nick Nastrini (OGILVIE) | — | — | 6.62 | 20.8% | 21.5% | 4.0% | — | 6.38 | 20.9% | 1.1% | 285 | -0.24 | — | — | — |
| Justin Armbruester R 2025 · 5.94 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.94 | 20.6% | 13.0% | 5.3% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.43 | 358 | 67 |
| M.D. Johnson R 2026 · 5.46 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.46 | 16.4% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .254 | 3.50 | 14.6% | 4.7% | 67 | -1.96 | 3.50 | 395 | 64 |
| Trystan Vrieling R 2025 · 5.66 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.66 | 16.8% | 17.2% | 3.3% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 297 | 63 |
| Andre Jackson R 2026 · 5.51 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.51 | 18.8% | 18.0% | 3.1% | .279 | 4.62 | 22.8% | 11.8% | 100 | -0.89 | 3.86 | 459 | 62 |
| Brendan Girton R 2024 · 6.62 FIP | 24 | SP | 6.62 | 16.5% | 17.6% | 4.9% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 150 | 61 |
| Bubba Derby R 2025 · 5.48 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.48 | 18.0% | 10.1% | 4.8% | .287 | 5.37 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 71 | -0.11 | 3.74 | 550 | 61 |
| Matthew Shepherd R 2025 · 5.57 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.57 | 13.7% | 9.5% | 4.4% | .390 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.57 | 116 | 61 |
| Nick Payero R 2025 · 5.72 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.72 | 16.6% | 12.0% | 4.6% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 178 | 60 |
| Hunter Dryden R 2024 · 5.66 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.66 | 19.2% | 14.5% | 4.3% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.34 | 157 | 60 |
| Patrick Copen R 2024 · 6.11 FIP | 24 | SP | 6.11 | 20.1% | 18.3% | 4.3% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.71 | 280 | 60 |
| Brett Conine R 2025 · 5.92 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.92 | 14.8% | 11.1% | 4.8% | .345 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 319 | 59 |
| Jarrod Cande R 2024 · 5.66 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.66 | 16.7% | 11.0% | 4.7% | .256 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.37 | 292 | 59 |
| Noah Hall R 2025 · 5.47 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.47 | 17.4% | 18.3% | 2.8% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 201 | 59 |
| Jeff Lindgren R 2026 · 5.89 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.89 | 13.9% | 13.2% | 4.2% | .230 | 6.75 | 16.8% | 3.4% | 76 | +0.86 | 2.33 | 429 | 57 |
| Justin Garza R 2025 · 5.68 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.68 | 15.7% | 12.0% | 4.3% | .317 | 4.50 | 25.8% | 12.8% | 94 | -1.18 | 3.76 | 537 | 57 |
| Chance Kirby R 2026 · 5.96 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.96 | 15.1% | 10.0% | 5.2% | .242 | 4.74 | 18.5% | 11.2% | 138 | -1.22 | 4.26 | 325 | 57 |
| Chris McElvain R 2025 · 6.60 FIP | 25 | SP | 6.60 | 14.8% | 13.3% | 5.6% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 287 | 56 |
| Drew McDaniel R 2025 · 6.57 FIP | 25 | SP | 6.57 | 17.9% | 12.0% | 6.3% | .241 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 200 | 56 |
| Lucas Erceg R 2026 · 5.74 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.74 | 17.1% | 18.1% | 3.3% | .258 | 3.41 | 25.1% | 13.7% | 193 | -2.33 | 2.09 | 339 | 55 |
| Alex McRae R 2026 · 5.75 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.75 | 17.0% | 9.5% | 5.3% | .316 | 4.19 | 18.6% | 7.8% | 89 | -1.56 | 3.80 | 789 | 55 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 142 | 20.8% | 20.4% | 1.53 | 6.16 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Brandon Finnegan ('18) | 3 | 80 | 19.7% | 11.6% | 1.57 | 4.19 |
| Josiah Gray ('23) | 3 | 126 | 22.6% | 10.8% | 1.88 | 4.64 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |