Nick Nastrini

P Tulsa Drillers

Age 27 RHP 6'3" / 220 lbs AA

Overview

AASPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	23	MIX2 levels	25	25	115	4.08	3.34	27.9%	10.8%	—	K 22.8% · BB 11.5% · FIP 4.02
2024	24	MIX2 levels	30	26	121	5.82	5.82	21.9%	15.5%	-0.6	K 19.5% · BB 14.6% · FIP 5.76
2025	25	AAALAD	24	7	47	8.56	6.67	20.9%	21.4%	—	K 18.0% · BB 19.2% · FIP 6.44
2027PROJ	27	MLBLAD	2	2	14	5.91	6.36	20.3%	20.0%	-0.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	28	MLBLAD	8	8	45	6.02	6.23	20.4%	18.9%	-0.4
2029PROJ59% MLB	29	MLBLAD	9	9	52	6.10	6.24	19.9%	18.3%	-0.5

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.6 · Next 3 projected WAR -1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

FB Velo38

K%10

xwOBA vs10

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsJake Bockenstedt (age 24) · Deylen Miley (age 25) · Justin Armbruester (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 154145vR 137

ERA5.91

FIP6.36

K%20.3%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%0.3%

Proj IP141

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 141 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL2020

CMD2020

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3893.7

Whiff%

p7228.8%

p1014.9%

xwOBA vs

p100.382

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	7	14	58	32	7	2	100%	2.0	40.4%	15.0%	25.3%	4.9%	1.93	4.28	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	7	14	58	32	7	2	100%	2.0	55.2%	12.1%	43.1%	3.4%	1.93	1.89	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	117	482	169	55	17	100%	4.3	27.3%	13.0%	14.4%	4.3%	3.93	4.81	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	117	482	169	55	17	100%	4.3	35.1%	11.4%	23.7%	3.5%	3.93	3.51	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	115	499	139	54	11	100%	4.6	22.8%	11.5%	11.3%	2.5%	4.08	4.02	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	115	499	139	54	11	100%	4.6	27.9%	10.8%	17.0%	2.2%	4.08	3.34	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	26	121	566	124	88	24	87%	4.0	19.5%	14.6%	4.9%	4.5%	5.82	5.76	-0.5
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	26	121	566	124	88	24	87%	4.0	19.5%	14.6%	4.9%	4.5%	5.82	5.76	-0.5
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	26	121	566	124	88	24	87%	4.0	21.9%	15.5%	6.4%	4.2%	5.82	5.82	-0.6
2025	25	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Comets	24	7	47	234	49	50	9	29%	2.0	18.0%	19.2%	-1.2%	4.4%	8.56	6.44	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Comets	24	7	47	234	49	50	9	29%	2.0	18.0%	19.2%	-1.2%	4.4%	8.56	6.44	—
2025	25	AAA RAW	Oklahoma City Comets	24	7	47	234	49	50	9	29%	2.0	20.9%	21.4%	-0.4%	3.8%	8.56	6.67	—
2026	26	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	1	0	0	3	0	3	0	0%	—	0.0%	100.0%	-100.0%	0.0%	—	15.77	—
2026	26	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	1	0	0	3	0	3	0	0%	—	0.0%	100.0%	-100.0%	0.0%	—	15.77	—
2026	26	AA RAW	Tulsa Drillers	1	0	0	3	0	3	0	0%	—	0.0%	100.0%	-100.0%	0.0%	—	—	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			9	8	36	174	26	36	7	89%	4.0	14.9%	20.7%	-5.7%	4.0%	7.07	7.22	-0.7
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	LAD	2	2	14	59	12	12	2	100%	7.0	20.3%	20.0%	0.3%	3.8%	5.91	6.36	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	LAD	17	17	105	442	90	84	17	100%	6.2	20.4%	18.9%	1.5%	3.8%	6.02	6.23	-0.9
2029	29	MLB MLE	LAD	15	15	87	369	73	67	14	100%	5.8	19.9%	18.3%	1.6%	3.9%	6.10	6.24	-0.8
2030	30	MLB MLE	LAD	13	13	77	326	63	59	13	100%	5.9	19.3%	18.1%	1.3%	4.0%	6.21	6.35	-0.8
2028	28	MLB CTX	LAD	8	8	45	190	39	36	7	100%	5.6	20.4%	18.9%	1.5%	3.8%	6.02	6.23	-0.4
2029	29	MLB CTX	LAD	9	9	52	220	44	40	9	100%	5.8	19.9%	18.3%	1.6%	3.9%	6.10	6.24	-0.5
2030	30	MLB CTX	LAD	9	9	54	228	44	41	9	100%	6.0	19.3%	18.1%	1.3%	4.0%	6.21	6.35	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		34	33	186	809	152	153	32	97%	5.5	18.8%	18.9%	-0.1%	3.9%	6.30	6.06	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	36	200	870	163	164	34	97%	5.5	18.8%	18.9%	-0.1%	3.9%	6.30	6.06	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		113	92	413	1839	421	256	72	81%	3.7	22.9%	13.9%	9.0%	3.9%	4.99	5.08	-3.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	45	200	890	204	124	35	81%	3.7	22.9%	13.9%	9.0%	3.9%	4.99	5.08	-2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAOklahoma City Comets · 47 IPFIP 6.15 → 6.44 (+0.29)K% 20.9% → 18.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.94%	—	×0.860	18.01%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	21.37%	—	×0.900	19.23%
HR / BF /BF	3.85%	÷0.956	×1.100	4.43%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 91).

Result: FIP 6.15 → 6.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAACharlotte Knights · 85 IPFIP 5.05 → 5.37 (+0.32)K% 25.0% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.860	21.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.27%	—	×0.900	11.94%
HR / BF /BF	4.34%	÷1.016	×1.100	4.70%

Result: FIP 5.05 → 5.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AABirmingham Barons · 95 IPFIP 3.27 → 4.06 (+0.79)K% 27.6% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.62%	—	×0.810	22.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.48%	—	×1.100	11.52%
HR / BF /BF	2.14%	÷1.013	×1.200	2.54%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 3.27 → 4.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAACharlotte Knights · 20 IPFIP 3.63 → 3.76 (+0.12)K% 29.1% → 25.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.11%	—	×0.860	25.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.66%	—	×0.900	11.39%
HR / BF /BF	2.53%	÷1.152	×1.100	2.42%

Result: FIP 3.63 → 3.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Great Lakes Loons · 86 IPFIP 3.32 → 4.63 (+1.31)K% 34.9% → 26.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.89%	—	×0.770	26.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.71%	—	×1.150	12.32%
HR / BF /BF	3.30%	÷1.013	×1.250	4.07%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 3.32 → 4.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AATulsa Drillers · 30 IPFIP 4.14 → 5.36 (+1.23)K% 35.6% → 28.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.59%	—	×0.810	28.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.56%	—	×1.100	14.92%
HR / BF /BF	4.24%	÷0.993	×1.200	5.12%

Result: FIP 4.14 → 5.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 13 IPFIP 2.10 → 4.28 (+2.18)K% 54.5% → 40.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	54.55%	—	×0.740	40.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.73%	—	×1.180	15.02%
HR / BF /BF	3.64%	÷0.965	×1.300	4.90%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 93).

Result: FIP 2.10 → 4.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Nastrini (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.36	20.3%	20.0%	3.8%	—	6.27	19.9%	1.5%	269	-0.09	—	—	—
Jake Bockenstedt R 2024 · 6.05 FIP	24	SP	6.05	17.0%	13.1%	5.0%	.322	4.35	16.8%	5.4%	126	-1.70	3.74	218	67
Deylen Miley R 2023 · 5.34 FIP	25	SP-	5.34	22.3%	17.5%	3.5%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.07	185	67
Justin Armbruester R 2024 · 5.73 FIP	25	SP	5.73	20.2%	11.1%	5.3%	.289	1.49	27.5%	21.9%	15	-4.24	1.49	373	63
Riley Thompson R 2023 · 5.76 FIP	27	SP-	5.76	18.5%	12.9%	4.7%	.284	4.48	17.6%	8.7%	107	-1.28	4.48	340	62
Bryan Mitchell R 2018 · 6.03 FIP	27	SP-	6.03	13.0%	12.2%	4.5%	.282	5.36	17.2%	4.6%	115	-0.67	2.72	481	62
Adam Oller R 2022 · 5.45 FIP	27	SP-	5.45	15.6%	11.9%	3.9%	.289	5.15	19.5%	9.5%	229	-0.30	3.47	670	61
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2015 · 5.24 FIP	27	SP-	5.24	11.6%	9.8%	3.4%	.263	4.28	15.3%	5.2%	167	-0.96	4.01	272	60
Dom Hamel R 2024 · 5.31 FIP	25	SP	5.31	18.3%	11.9%	4.1%	.330	4.96	17.9%	8.8%	180	-0.35	3.61	547	60
Connor Jones R 2022 · 5.50 FIP	27	SP	5.50	15.1%	15.7%	3.1%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	402	59
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.83 FIP	27	SP-	5.83	14.2%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	58
Chad Donato R 2022 · 5.57 FIP	27	SP-	5.57	16.1%	11.4%	4.3%	.275	6.65	13.4%	1.7%	42	+1.08	2.89	439	57
Brett Conine R 2022 · 5.68 FIP	25	SW	5.68	14.8%	11.1%	4.4%	.345	—	—	—	—	—	3.21	319	56
Heath Fillmyer R 2021 · 5.59 FIP	27	SP-	5.59	19.3%	10.8%	5.0%	.298	—	—	—	—	—	3.52	687	56
Alex Blackford R 2017 · 5.59 FIP	26	SP	5.59	14.9%	12.5%	4.0%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	229	56
Denny Stark R 2002 · 5.97 FIP	27	SP-	5.97	11.6%	10.8%	4.5%	.205	5.73	7.8%	-1.0%	105	-0.24	5.28	259	55
Justin Miller R 2004 · 5.41 FIP	26	SP-	5.41	12.5%	10.4%	3.7%	.316	2.63	28.6%	21.7%	62	-2.78	2.63	373	55
Brady Feigl R 2021 · 5.26 FIP	25	SP	5.26	19.4%	9.6%	4.7%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	257	55
Asher Wojciechowski R 2016 · 5.40 FIP	27	SP	5.40	13.5%	11.0%	3.7%	.315	4.71	22.2%	14.4%	379	-0.69	3.15	678	55
Deck McGuire R 2016 · 5.23 FIP	27	SP	5.23	17.2%	8.5%	4.6%	.287	4.05	19.8%	9.4%	277	-1.18	3.41	622	55
Blair Henley R 2024 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP	5.41	17.2%	12.4%	4.0%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	187	55

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	89	19.6%	19.2%	1.49	6.12
Lowell Palmer ('69-'74, -4 WAR*)	1.6	79	21.9%*	13.3%*	1.59*	6.09*
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Touki Toussaint ('25)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.24	5.42
Blake Stein ('02)	2.4	95	17.4%	13.2%	1.48	5.41
Jim Duckworth ('63-'66, -4 WAR*)	1.3	67	23.1%*	12.4%*	1.43*	6.15*
Tim Conroy ('78-'87, -3 WAR*)	2.3	78	20.8%*	13.6%*	1.12*	5.23*