Adam Oller

P Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 32 RHP 6'4" / 225 lbs AAA Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 1.4 · 2027

Overview

AAASPArb-3FA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	27	MIX2 levels	26	21	106	5.52	5.30	16.4%	11.8%	0.1	K 15.6% · BB 11.9% · FIP 5.45
2023	28	MIX2 levels	33	22	134	6.78	5.44	21.4%	10.2%	-0.1	K 18.7% · BB 9.4% · FIP 5.28
2024	29	MIX2 levels	26	17	95	5.31	4.68	22.6%	11.4%	0.8	K 20.6% · BB 10.8% · FIP 4.97
2025	30	No MLB games played
2026	31	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	32	MLBMIA	3	3	16	4.59	4.72	21.5%	9.9%	0.1
2028PROJ29% MLB	33	MLBMIA	6	6	36	4.74	4.90	20.7%	10.3%	0.2
2029PROJ25% MLB	34	MLBMIA	4	4	25	5.01	5.19	19.8%	10.8%	0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.9 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service5.000First FA2028

2027Arb-3$6M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

FB Velo40

xwOBA vs33

K%28

CompsKenshin Kawakami (age 34) · Nate Long (age 29) · Jarrett Grube (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.59

FIP4.72

K%21.5%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%11.6%

Proj IP164

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 164 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4093.8

Whiff%

p2321.5%

p2819.0%

xwOBA vs

p330.332

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2022

Service 5.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-3	$6M	+0.1	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.0M		$0.5M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	21	ROK MLE	Bristol Pirates	13	9	55	236	46	9	7	69%	4.2	13.3%	4.8%	8.5%	4.2%	4.45	4.86	—
2016	21	ROK RAW	Bristol Pirates	13	9	55	236	46	9	7	69%	4.2	19.5%	3.8%	15.7%	3.0%	4.45	3.58	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	5	73	325	68	24	15	17%	2.5	16.0%	8.5%	7.5%	5.4%	6.29	5.79	—
2018	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	5	73	325	68	24	15	17%	2.5	20.9%	7.4%	13.5%	4.6%	6.29	4.89	—
2019	24	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	17	17	87	372	93	26	5	100%	5.1	18.5%	8.2%	10.3%	1.6%	4.02	3.47	—
2019	24	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	17	17	87	372	93	26	5	100%	5.1	25.0%	7.0%	18.0%	1.3%	4.02	2.61	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	120	498	138	47	9	100%	5.2	23.1%	10.2%	12.8%	2.2%	3.45	3.63	—
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	120	498	138	47	9	100%	5.2	27.7%	9.4%	18.3%	1.8%	3.45	2.95	—
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	21	106	476	78	56	17	81%	4.1	15.6%	11.9%	3.6%	3.9%	5.52	5.45	-0.1
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	21	106	476	78	56	17	81%	4.1	16.4%	11.8%	4.6%	3.6%	5.52	5.30	+0.1
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	22	134	625	134	64	30	67%	4.1	18.7%	9.4%	9.3%	4.7%	6.78	5.28	+0.2
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	22	134	625	134	64	30	67%	4.1	21.4%	10.2%	11.2%	4.8%	6.78	5.44	-0.1
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	17	95	412	93	47	15	65%	3.7	20.6%	10.8%	9.8%	4.1%	5.31	4.97	+0.5
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	17	95	412	93	47	15	65%	3.7	20.6%	10.8%	9.8%	4.1%	5.31	4.97	+0.5
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	17	95	412	93	47	15	65%	3.7	22.6%	11.4%	11.2%	3.6%	5.31	4.68	+0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			36	23	136	627	95	73	29	64%	3.8	15.2%	11.6%	3.5%	4.6%	6.54	6.08	-1.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	MIA	3	3	16	68	15	7	2	100%	5.3	21.5%	9.9%	11.6%	3.3%	4.59	4.72	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	MIA	21	21	125	529	109	55	19	100%	6.0	20.7%	10.3%	10.3%	3.6%	4.84	5.00	+0.6
2029	34	MLB MLE	MIA	17	17	100	423	84	46	16	100%	5.9	19.8%	10.8%	8.9%	3.9%	5.12	5.30	+0.1
2028	33	MLB CTX	MIA	6	6	36	152	31	16	5	100%	6.0	20.7%	10.3%	10.3%	3.4%	4.74	4.90	+0.2
2029	34	MLB CTX	MIA	4	4	25	106	21	11	4	100%	6.2	19.8%	10.8%	8.9%	3.7%	5.01	5.19	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		46	33	197	884	147	100	38	72%	4.3	16.6%	11.3%	5.3%	4.3%	6.02	5.49	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		47	34	200	897	149	101	39	72%	4.3	16.6%	11.3%	5.3%	4.3%	6.02	5.49	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		167	114	670	2944	543	281	109	68%	4.0	18.4%	9.5%	8.9%	3.7%	5.17	4.78	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	34	200	879	162	84	32	68%	4.0	18.4%	9.5%	8.9%	3.7%	5.17	4.78	-0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 53 IPFIP 4.33 → 4.86 (+0.53)K% 25.6% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.56%	—	×0.860	21.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.21%	—	×0.900	10.09%
HR / BF /BF	3.59%	÷0.925	×1.100	4.26%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 4.33 → 4.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAATacoma Rainiers · 114 IPFIP 5.03 → 5.04 (+0.02)K% 23.1% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.09%	—	×0.860	19.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.92%	—	×0.900	8.93%
HR / BF /BF	4.77%	÷1.157	×1.100	4.53%

Result: FIP 5.03 → 5.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 32 IPFIP 2.71 → 3.02 (+0.31)K% 23.0% → 20.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.02%	—	×0.880	20.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.23%	—	×1.050	12.84%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.075	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 115).

Result: FIP 2.71 → 3.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 76 IPFIP 3.11 → 3.99 (+0.87)K% 29.6% → 24.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.60%	—	×0.810	23.97%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.03%	—	×1.100	9.94%
HR / BF /BF	2.49%	÷0.995	×1.200	3.01%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 99).

Result: FIP 3.11 → 3.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAASyracuse Mets · 44 IPFIP 2.65 → 2.98 (+0.33)K% 24.3% → 21.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.29%	—	×0.880	21.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.17%	—	×1.050	10.68%
HR / BF /BF	0.56%	÷1.039	×1.100	0.60%

Result: FIP 2.65 → 2.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAugusta GreenJackets · 87 IPFIP 2.61 → 3.47 (+0.86)K% 25.0% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.740	18.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.99%	—	×1.180	8.25%
HR / BF /BF	1.34%	÷1.082	×1.300	1.61%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 116).

Result: FIP 2.61 → 3.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Bradenton Marauders · 59 IPFIP 5.31 → 6.34 (+1.04)K% 19.9% → 15.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.92%	—	×0.770	15.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.89%	—	×1.150	9.08%
HR / BF /BF	5.26%	÷1.066	×1.250	6.17%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 113).

Result: FIP 5.31 → 6.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AWest Virginia Power · 14 IPFIP 2.53 → 3.30 (+0.77)K% 25.4% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.42%	—	×0.740	18.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.08%	—	×1.180	6.00%
HR / BF /BF	1.69%	÷1.181	×1.300	1.87%

Result: FIP 2.53 → 3.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Adam Oller (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.3%	—	5.13	20.3%	9.7%	225	+0.41	—	—	—
Kenshin Kawakami R 2009 · 3.97 FIP	34	SP-	3.97	15.7%	7.6%	2.2%	.277	4.06	15.1%	9.5%	87	+0.09	3.97	244	76
Nate Long R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	29	SP	4.67	14.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	151	65
Jarrett Grube R 2015 · 3.75 FIP	33	SP	3.75	18.7%	4.2%	3.1%	.285	4.57	17.3%	9.6%	253	+0.82	3.75	393	64
Shawn Haviland R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	31	SP-	5.00	16.3%	8.1%	4.1%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	283	62
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	62
Odrisamer Despaigne R 2019 · 3.77 FIP	32	SP	3.77	19.4%	8.9%	2.2%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	689	62
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	3.84	193	61
Cory Riordan R 2016 · 4.24 FIP	30	SP	4.24	14.3%	5.0%	3.1%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	4.24	154	61
Pete Walker R 2002 · 4.59 FIP	33	SP-	4.59	13.4%	7.7%	3.0%	.279	5.16	12.0%	2.8%	139	+0.57	4.45	327	61
Logan Verrett R 2022 · 3.84 FIP	32	SP	3.84	17.5%	5.5%	2.8%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	550	60
Patrick Johnson R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	30	SP	4.14	15.7%	9.3%	2.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	248	60
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	60
Hector Noesí R 2019 · 5.11 FIP	32	SP-	5.11	22.3%	7.2%	5.4%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	613	60
Jose Contreras R 2004 · 5.06 FIP	32	SP	5.06	19.8%	10.9%	4.1%	.273	4.06	15.8%	8.6%	590	-1.00	2.43	1,279	59
Daniel McCutchen R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	32	SP-	4.30	13.9%	4.4%	3.3%	.268	4.74	10.8%	4.9%	155	+0.44	4.13	476	59
Junior Guerra R 2017 · 5.24 FIP	32	SP-	5.24	19.4%	12.8%	3.9%	.255	3.99	22.2%	12.5%	248	-1.25	3.18	646	58
Hector Galvan R 2019 · 4.84 FIP	31	SP-	4.84	14.3%	12.2%	2.6%	.357	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	406	57
Cody Mincey R 2022 · 5.56 FIP	30	SP	5.56	13.9%	8.4%	4.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	147	57
Matt Buschmann R 2016 · 4.84 FIP	32	SP	4.84	12.8%	8.4%	3.2%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	277	57
Tim Adleman R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	31	SP	4.30	22.8%	7.8%	3.9%	.266	4.71	18.5%	11.1%	90	+0.41	3.63	605	56

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	105	19.3%	10.6%	1.48	5.26
Dave Williams ('07)	2.0	82	13.8%	9.3%	1.41	4.83
Jo-Jo Reyes ('16)	1.7	84	14.0%	9.6%	1.44	6.06
Steve Dunning ('70-'77, -1 WAR*)	3.1	123	20.2%*	11.5%*	1.71*	5.25*
Ruben Quevedo ('03)	1.6	82	15.8%	11.7%	1.93	6.15
Mike Campbell ('87-'96, -2 WAR*)	1.2	58	17.0%*	9.1%*	1.96*	5.82*
Jeff Robinson ('87-'92, 0 WAR*)	3.5	118	18.3%*	10.9%*	1.38*	5.14*