Adam Oller
P
Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp
Age 31
RHP
6'4" / 225 lbs
AAA
peak 0.5 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 131 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135126vR 116
ERA5.44
FIP5.47
K%18.8%
BB%12.6%
K-BB%6.2%
ROS IP131
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 131 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4093.8
Whiff%
p2321.5%
K%
p2819.0%
xwOBA vs
p330.332
SL+4.2 (26%)
CU (41%)
CH-1.8 (7%)
FB-8.6 (51%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | Bristol Pirates | 13 | 9 | 55 | 236 | 46 | 9 | 7 | 69% | 4.2 | 13.3% | 4.8% | 8.5% | 4.2% | 4.45 | 4.86 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | Bristol Pirates | 13 | 9 | 55 | 236 | 46 | 9 | 7 | 69% | 4.2 | 19.5% | 3.8% | 15.7% | 3.0% | 4.45 | 3.58 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 5 | 73 | 325 | 68 | 24 | 15 | 17% | 2.5 | 16.0% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 6.29 | 5.60 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 5 | 73 | 325 | 68 | 24 | 15 | 17% | 2.5 | 20.9% | 7.4% | 13.5% | 4.6% | 6.29 | 4.89 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 17 | 17 | 87 | 372 | 93 | 26 | 5 | 100% | 5.1 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 1.5% | 4.02 | 3.41 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 17 | 17 | 87 | 372 | 93 | 26 | 5 | 100% | 5.1 | 25.0% | 7.0% | 18.0% | 1.3% | 4.02 | 2.61 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 120 | 498 | 138 | 47 | 9 | 100% | 5.2 | 23.1% | 10.2% | 12.8% | 2.2% | 3.45 | 3.63 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 120 | 498 | 138 | 47 | 9 | 100% | 5.2 | 27.7% | 9.4% | 18.3% | 1.8% | 3.45 | 2.95 | — |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 21 | 106 | 476 | 78 | 56 | 17 | 81% | 4.1 | 15.6% | 11.9% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 5.52 | 5.35 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 21 | 106 | 476 | 78 | 56 | 17 | 81% | 4.1 | 16.4% | 11.8% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 5.52 | 5.30 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 22 | 134 | 625 | 134 | 64 | 30 | 67% | 4.1 | 19.1% | 10.7% | 8.5% | 4.2% | 6.78 | 5.13 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 22 | 134 | 625 | 134 | 64 | 30 | 67% | 4.1 | 21.4% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 4.8% | 6.78 | 5.44 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 17 | 95 | 412 | 93 | 47 | 15 | 65% | 3.7 | 20.9% | 11.7% | 9.2% | 4.3% | 5.31 | 5.18 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 17 | 95 | 412 | 93 | 47 | 15 | 65% | 3.7 | 22.6% | 11.4% | 11.2% | 3.6% | 5.31 | 4.68 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 27 | 27 | 164 | 692 | 130 | 87 | 25 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.8% | 12.6% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 5.44 | 5.47 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 25 | 25 | 152 | 641 | 115 | 83 | 25 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.0% | 13.0% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 5.61 | 5.72 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 23 | 23 | 139 | 588 | 101 | 79 | 24 | 100% | 6.1 | 17.2% | 13.4% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 5.84 | 6.00 | -1.0 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 9 | 9 | 56 | 236 | 43 | 31 | 9 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.0% | 13.0% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 5.61 | 5.72 | -0.8 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 13 | 13 | 77 | 325 | 56 | 44 | 13 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.2% | 13.4% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 5.84 | 6.00 | -1.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 58 | 45 | 269 | 1186 | 193 | 147 | 51 | 78% | 4.6 | 16.3% | 12.4% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 6.14 | 5.68 | -0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 34 | 200 | 883 | 144 | 109 | 38 | 78% | 4.6 | 16.3% | 12.4% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 6.14 | 5.68 | -0.7 | ||
| Career | — | 167 | 114 | 670 | 2944 | 547 | 292 | 104 | 68% | 4.0 | 18.6% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 3.5% | 5.17 | 4.73 | +5.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 34 | 200 | 879 | 163 | 87 | 31 | 68% | 4.0 | 18.6% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 3.5% | 5.17 | 4.73 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Adam Oller (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.47 | 18.8% | 12.6% | 3.6% | — | 5.85 | 17.6% | 4.4% | 291 | +0.38 | — | — | — |
| Yovani Gallardo R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 31 | SP- | 5.37 | 16.3% | 9.9% | 4.4% | .283 | 4.35 | 14.9% | 5.3% | 144 | -1.02 | 3.91 | 577 | 75 |
| Scott Copeland R 2026 · 5.72 FIP | 31 | SP- | 5.72 | 17.1% | 12.4% | 4.5% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 569 | 72 |
| Clay Buchholz R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.87 | 15.8% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .260 | 4.11 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 180 | -0.76 | 2.49 | 433 | 71 |
| Nate Long R 2024 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.86 | 14.8% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 151 | 70 |
| Chase Anderson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.58 | 20.9% | 8.1% | 4.0% | .259 | 5.41 | 19.2% | 10.0% | 218 | +0.83 | 3.42 | 1,146 | 68 |
| Jason Berken R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.69 | 13.5% | 6.6% | 3.5% | .315 | 4.31 | 11.5% | 3.2% | 106 | -0.38 | 4.31 | 219 | 66 |
| Jerome Williams R 2028 · 4.79 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.79 | 13.4% | 5.6% | 3.8% | .326 | 5.94 | 11.7% | 5.6% | 74 | +1.15 | 4.79 | 195 | 66 |
| Daniel McCutchen R 2027 · 4.47 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.47 | 13.9% | 4.4% | 3.6% | .268 | 4.60 | 10.8% | 4.9% | 155 | +0.13 | 4.47 | 287 | 65 |
| Marco Estrada R 2027 · 4.32 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.32 | 18.1% | 7.3% | 3.3% | .213 | 4.55 | 20.6% | 12.0% | 506 | +0.23 | 4.04 | 710 | 64 |
| Matt Cain R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.96 | 18.1% | 7.8% | 4.4% | .313 | 4.83 | 13.2% | 5.6% | 124 | -0.13 | 4.83 | 294 | 64 |
| Josh Zeid R 2025 · 5.41 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.41 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 4.5% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 265 | 63 |
| Felipe Paulino R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.68 | 15.8% | 11.8% | 2.6% | .312 | 4.79 | 15.0% | 4.8% | 26 | +0.11 | 4.68 | 150 | 63 |
| Scott Carroll R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 31 | SP | 5.25 | 10.5% | 8.6% | 3.5% | .289 | 6.06 | 14.4% | 5.8% | 22 | +0.81 | 3.78 | 248 | 62 |
| Hector Galvan R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.64 | 14.3% | 12.2% | 2.2% | .357 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 406 | 62 |
| Tom Koehler R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.71 | 22.4% | 9.0% | 4.3% | .298 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 474 | 62 |
| Shawn Haviland R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.80 | 16.3% | 8.1% | 3.8% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 283 | 62 |
| David Fletcher R 2025 · 5.92 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.92 | 7.6% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.92 | 100 | 62 |
| Andrew Cashner R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.90 | 14.5% | 9.1% | 3.4% | .307 | 4.44 | 17.0% | 7.9% | 150 | -0.46 | 3.77 | 786 | 61 |
| Miguel González R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.59 | 17.5% | 7.9% | 3.6% | .289 | 4.25 | 15.9% | 9.0% | 325 | -0.34 | 3.73 | 469 | 61 |
| Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.92 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.92 | 22.3% | 7.2% | 5.1% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 61 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 152 | 18.0% | 13.0% | 1.49 | 5.62 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |
| Yovani Gallardo ('18) | 4 | 132 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 1.18 | 4.97 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| James Shields ('18) | 4 | 176 | 19.8% | 9.6% | 1.71 | 4.81 |
| Josiah Gray ('23) | 3 | 126 | 22.6% | 10.8% | 1.88 | 4.64 |