Adam Oller — OGILVIE

Adam Oller P Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 31 RHP 6'4" / 225 lbs AAA peak 0.5 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.42

FIP5.41

K%18.3%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%6.5%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL3535

CMD3535

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4093.8

Whiff%

p2321.5%

p2819.0%

xwOBA vs

p330.332

SL+4.2 (26%)

CU (41%)

CH-1.8 (7%)

FB-8.6 (51%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	21	ROK MLE	Bristol Pirates	13	9	55	236	46	9	7	69%	4.2	13.3%	4.8%	8.5%	4.2%	4.45	4.86	—
2016	21	ROK RAW	Bristol Pirates	13	9	55	236	46	9	7	69%	4.2	19.5%	3.8%	15.7%	3.0%	4.45	3.58	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	5	73	325	68	24	15	17%	2.5	16.0%	8.5%	7.5%	5.4%	6.29	5.79	—
2018	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	5	73	325	68	24	15	17%	2.5	20.9%	7.4%	13.5%	4.6%	6.29	4.89	—
2019	24	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	17	17	87	372	93	26	5	100%	5.1	18.5%	8.2%	10.3%	1.6%	4.02	3.47	—
2019	24	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	17	17	87	372	93	26	5	100%	5.1	25.0%	7.0%	18.0%	1.3%	4.02	2.61	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	120	498	138	47	9	100%	5.2	23.1%	10.2%	12.8%	2.2%	3.45	3.63	—
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	120	498	138	47	9	100%	5.2	27.7%	9.4%	18.3%	1.8%	3.45	2.95	—
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	21	106	476	78	56	17	81%	4.1	15.6%	11.9%	3.6%	3.9%	5.52	5.45	-0.7
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	21	106	476	78	56	17	81%	4.1	16.4%	11.8%	4.6%	3.6%	5.52	5.30	-0.5
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	22	134	625	134	64	30	67%	4.1	18.1%	9.4%	8.7%	4.7%	6.78	5.33	-0.7
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	22	134	625	134	64	30	67%	4.1	18.1%	9.4%	8.7%	4.7%	6.78	5.33	-0.7
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	22	134	625	134	64	30	67%	4.1	21.4%	10.2%	11.2%	4.8%	6.78	5.44	-0.8
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	17	95	412	93	47	15	65%	3.7	20.2%	10.8%	9.4%	4.1%	5.31	5.01	-0.1
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	17	95	412	93	47	15	65%	3.7	20.2%	10.8%	9.4%	4.1%	5.31	5.01	-0.1
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	17	95	412	93	47	15	65%	3.7	22.6%	11.4%	11.2%	3.6%	5.31	4.68	+0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			36	23	136	627	95	73	29	64%	3.8	15.2%	11.6%	3.5%	4.6%	6.54	6.08	-1.8
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	31	MLB	MIA	2	2	13	55	10	6	2	100%	6.5	18.3%	11.8%	6.5%	3.6%	5.42	5.41	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	MIA	25	25	152	641	112	78	25	100%	6.1	17.5%	12.2%	5.3%	3.9%	5.57	5.67	-1.3
2028	33	MLB MLE	MIA	23	23	139	588	98	74	24	100%	6.1	16.7%	12.6%	4.0%	4.1%	5.80	5.95	-1.6
2027	32	MLB CTX	MIA	9	9	56	236	41	29	9	100%	6.2	17.5%	12.2%	5.3%	3.9%	5.57	5.67	-0.5
2028	33	MLB CTX	MIA	13	13	77	325	54	41	13	100%	5.9	16.7%	12.6%	4.0%	4.1%	5.80	5.95	-0.9
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		58	45	269	1186	190	143	52	78%	4.6	16.0%	12.0%	4.0%	4.3%	6.13	5.65	-2.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		43	34	200	883	141	106	39	78%	4.6	16.0%	12.0%	4.0%	4.3%	6.13	5.65	-1.7
Career	—	MLE		167	114	670	2944	538	281	109	68%	4.0	18.3%	9.5%	8.7%	3.7%	5.17	4.79	-4.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	34	200	879	161	84	32	68%	4.0	18.3%	9.5%	8.7%	3.7%	5.17	4.79	-2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Adam Oller (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.41	18.3%	11.8%	3.6%	—	5.80	17.1%	4.7%	291	+0.39	—	—	—
Clay Buchholz R 2016 · 4.94 FIP	31	SP-	4.94	15.8%	9.2%	3.7%	.260	4.18	17.8%	11.6%	180	-0.76	2.51	433	73
Scott Copeland R 2019 · 5.62 FIP	31	SP-	5.62	17.1%	12.4%	4.4%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	569	73
Nate Long R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	29	SP	4.67	14.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	151	70
Jerome Williams R 2015 · 4.72 FIP	33	SP-	4.72	13.4%	5.6%	3.7%	.326	5.81	11.7%	5.6%	74	+1.09	4.72	195	68
Daniel McCutchen R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	32	SP-	4.30	13.9%	4.4%	3.3%	.268	4.74	10.8%	4.9%	155	+0.44	4.30	287	68
Jason Berken R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	31	SW	4.34	13.5%	6.6%	2.8%	.315	4.54	11.5%	3.2%	106	+0.20	4.34	219	68
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	67
Yovani Gallardo R 2017 · 5.31 FIP	31	SP-	5.31	16.3%	9.9%	4.3%	.283	4.33	14.9%	5.3%	144	-0.98	3.90	577	66
Matt Cain R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	31	SP-	4.95	18.1%	7.8%	4.4%	.313	4.82	13.2%	5.6%	124	-0.13	4.82	294	65
Marco Estrada R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	32	SP-	4.32	18.1%	7.3%	3.3%	.213	4.55	20.6%	12.0%	506	+0.23	4.04	710	65
Scott Carroll R 2016 · 4.94 FIP	31	SP	4.94	10.5%	8.6%	3.0%	.289	5.71	14.4%	5.8%	22	+0.77	3.92	248	64
Josh Zeid R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	30	SW	5.35	18.3%	10.8%	4.4%	.334	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	265	63
Hector Galvan R 2019 · 4.84 FIP	31	SP-	4.84	14.3%	12.2%	2.6%	.357	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	406	63
Shawn Haviland R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	31	SP-	5.00	16.3%	8.1%	4.1%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	283	63
Tyson Ross R 2018 · 4.22 FIP	31	SP-	4.22	19.2%	9.1%	2.9%	.263	5.68	15.4%	4.3%	35	+1.46	2.76	449	63
Felipe Paulino R 2015 · 4.55 FIP	31	SP	4.55	15.8%	11.8%	2.3%	.312	4.93	15.0%	4.8%	26	+0.38	4.55	150	62
Miguel González R 2015 · 4.53 FIP	31	SP	4.53	17.5%	7.9%	3.5%	.289	4.23	15.9%	9.0%	325	-0.30	3.72	469	62
Matt Garza R 2015 · 4.61 FIP	31	SP	4.61	15.6%	8.1%	3.3%	.315	4.30	15.5%	7.7%	216	-0.31	4.00	365	62
Josh Roenicke R 2015 · 4.85 FIP	32	SP	4.85	10.9%	7.0%	3.3%	.353	3.35	19.2%	11.5%	160	-1.50	3.27	283	62
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	62

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	152	17.5%	12.2%	1.49	5.59
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Brandon Finnegan ('18)	1.2	80	19.7%	11.6%	1.57	4.19
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12