Thomas Farr — OGILVIE

Thomas Farr P Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 27 RHP 6'0" / 203 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 43 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.35

FIP5.35

K%13.2%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%3.8%

ROS IP43

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 43 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	4	3	10	39	14	1	1	75%	2.5	35.9%	2.6%	33.3%	2.6%	0.90	1.80	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	4	3	10	39	14	1	1	75%	2.5	35.9%	2.6%	33.3%	2.6%	0.90	1.90	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	22	20	99	436	102	37	15	91%	4.5	18.0%	9.8%	8.3%	4.1%	4.80	5.05	—
2022	23	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	22	20	99	436	102	37	15	91%	4.5	23.4%	8.5%	14.9%	3.4%	4.80	4.13	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	115	496	82	43	15	100%	4.6	12.9%	9.7%	3.2%	3.8%	5.56	5.31	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	115	496	82	43	15	100%	4.6	12.9%	9.7%	3.2%	3.8%	5.56	5.31	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	115	496	82	43	15	100%	4.6	16.5%	8.7%	7.9%	3.0%	5.56	4.49	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	26	26	126	558	87	47	20	100%	4.9	12.6%	9.3%	3.4%	4.0%	5.56	5.38	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	26	26	126	558	87	47	20	100%	4.9	12.6%	9.3%	3.4%	4.0%	5.56	5.38	—
2024	25	AA RAW	Chattanooga Lookouts	26	26	126	558	87	47	20	100%	4.9	15.6%	8.4%	7.2%	3.6%	5.56	4.90	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	0	41	171	23	15	4	0%	1.6	10.2%	9.7%	0.4%	2.9%	3.29	5.08	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	0	41	171	23	15	4	0%	1.6	10.2%	9.7%	0.4%	2.9%	3.29	5.08	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	0	41	171	23	15	4	0%	1.6	13.5%	8.8%	4.7%	2.3%	3.29	4.34	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	31	0	47	213	25	20	9	0%	1.5	10.3%	9.4%	1.0%	4.5%	7.28	5.87	—
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	31	0	47	213	25	20	9	0%	1.5	10.3%	9.4%	1.0%	4.5%	7.28	5.87	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AA RAW	CIN	29	0	43	188	24	16	7	0%	1.5	12.8%	8.5%	4.3%	3.7%	6.28	5.14	—
2026	27	AAA RAW	CIN	2	0	4	25	1	4	2	0%	2.0	4.0%	16.0%	-12.0%	8.0%	18.00	9.18	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	CIN	40	0	42	177	25	17	6	0%	1.1	14.1%	9.6%	4.5%	3.3%	5.30	5.33	-0.4
2027	28	MLB CTX	CIN	15	0	16	68	10	6	2	0%	1.1	14.1%	9.6%	4.5%	3.3%	5.30	5.33	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		15	0	16	67	9	6	2	0%	1.1	14.1%	9.6%	4.5%	3.3%	5.30	4.95	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	114	76	25	0%	1.1	14.1%	9.6%	4.5%	3.3%	5.30	4.95	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		133	74	439	1913	266	180	74	56%	3.3	13.9%	9.4%	4.5%	3.9%	5.25	5.24	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	34	200	872	121	82	34	56%	3.3	13.9%	9.4%	4.5%	3.9%	5.25	5.24	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Thomas Farr (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.35	13.2%	9.5%	3.3%	—	5.33	14.1%	4.5%	42	-0.02	—	—	—
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	85
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	82
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	82
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	81
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	81
Paul Clemens R 2015 · 5.37 FIP	27	SP-	5.37	14.3%	14.1%	3.1%	.310	4.62	16.9%	7.3%	200	-0.75	4.58	247	80
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	79
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	79
Orlando Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	13.7%	10.6%	2.5%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	119	79
Alex Caldera R 2015 · 5.57 FIP	29	SW	5.57	10.4%	13.1%	3.1%	.333	4.54	11.9%	0.8%	84	-1.03	4.54	120	78
Andres Santiago R 2017 · 4.16 FIP	27	SW	4.16	16.3%	9.1%	2.3%	.384	5.26	13.1%	3.2%	159	+1.10	3.76	291	77
Chris Jensen R 2018 · 5.31 FIP	27	SW	5.31	12.0%	10.6%	3.4%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	488	76
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	76
Aldo Montes R 2017 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.4%	8.5%	3.3%	.322	4.69	18.2%	7.6%	75	-0.27	4.69	210	76
Luis Romero R 2021 · 6.01 FIP	27	SW	6.01	13.8%	10.1%	5.1%	.293	5.70	11.6%	-1.5%	68	-0.31	4.00	293	76
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	75
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	75
Connor Johnstone R 2022 · 4.20 FIP	27	SW	4.20	12.2%	8.2%	2.0%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	319	75
Casey Coleman R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	28	SW	4.32	12.6%	11.4%	1.5%	.349	4.14	18.3%	8.9%	146	-0.18	2.95	306	75
Tyler Santana R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	25	SW	4.43	15.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.306	4.90	15.1%	4.9%	191	+0.47	3.37	399	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	43	13.7%	9.5%	1.28	5.33
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Josh Fleming ('24)	1.3	51	14.6%	7.5%	1.17	4.77
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43