Thomas Farr

P Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 28 RHP 6'0" / 203 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	AACIN	26	26	126	5.56	4.90	15.6%	8.4%	—	K 12.6% · BB 9.3% · FIP 5.38
2025	26	MIX3 levels	25	0	41	3.29	4.34	13.5%	8.8%	—	K 10.2% · BB 9.7% · FIP 5.08
2026	27	MIX2 levels	32	0	48	7.55	5.95	12.4%	9.2%	—	K 11.0% · BB 9.2% · FIP 6.08
2027PROJ	28	MLBCIN	1	0	1	5.44	5.44	13.0%	9.3%	-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	29	MLBCIN	8	0	8	5.40	5.45	13.8%	9.5%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsEddie Bonine (age 28) · Jon Leicester (age 28) · Jared Fernandez (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 120

ERA5.44

FIP5.44

K%13.0%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%3.7%

Proj IP30

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 30 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	4	3	10	39	14	1	1	75%	2.5	35.9%	2.6%	33.3%	2.6%	0.90	1.80	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	4	3	10	39	14	1	1	75%	2.5	35.9%	2.6%	33.3%	2.6%	0.90	1.90	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	22	20	99	436	102	37	15	91%	4.5	18.0%	9.8%	8.3%	4.1%	4.80	5.05	—
2022	23	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	22	20	99	436	102	37	15	91%	4.5	23.4%	8.5%	14.9%	3.4%	4.80	4.13	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	115	496	82	43	15	100%	4.6	12.9%	9.7%	3.2%	3.8%	5.56	5.31	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	115	496	82	43	15	100%	4.6	16.5%	8.7%	7.9%	3.0%	5.56	4.49	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	26	26	126	558	87	47	20	100%	4.9	12.6%	9.3%	3.4%	4.0%	5.56	5.38	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	26	26	126	558	87	47	20	100%	4.9	12.6%	9.3%	3.4%	4.0%	5.56	5.38	—
2024	25	AA RAW	Chattanooga Lookouts	26	26	126	558	87	47	20	100%	4.9	15.6%	8.4%	7.2%	3.6%	5.56	4.90	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	0	41	171	23	15	4	0%	1.6	10.2%	9.7%	0.4%	2.9%	3.29	5.08	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	0	41	171	23	15	4	0%	1.6	10.2%	9.7%	0.4%	2.9%	3.29	5.08	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	0	41	171	23	15	4	0%	1.6	13.5%	8.8%	4.7%	2.3%	3.29	4.34	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	48	217	27	20	10	0%	1.5	11.0%	9.2%	1.8%	5.0%	7.55	6.08	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	48	217	27	20	10	0%	1.5	11.0%	9.2%	1.8%	5.0%	7.55	6.08	—
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	0	48	217	27	20	10	0%	1.5	12.4%	9.2%	3.2%	4.6%	7.55	5.95	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	CIN	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	13.0%	9.3%	3.7%	3.4%	5.44	5.44	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	CIN	24	0	26	108	15	10	4	0%	1.1	13.8%	9.5%	4.3%	3.5%	5.40	5.45	-0.3
2028	29	MLB CTX	CIN	8	0	8	34	5	3	1	0%	1.0	13.8%	9.5%	4.3%	3.5%	5.40	5.45	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	8	34	5	3	1	0%	1.0	13.8%	9.5%	4.3%	3.5%	5.40	5.07	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	125	75	25	0%	1.1	13.8%	9.5%	4.3%	3.5%	5.40	5.07	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		134	74	439	1917	268	180	75	55%	3.3	14.0%	9.4%	4.6%	3.9%	5.29	5.26	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	34	200	873	122	82	34	55%	3.3	14.0%	9.4%	4.6%	3.9%	5.29	5.26	-0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 44 IPFIP 5.30 → 6.08 (+0.78)K% 13.5% → 11.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.54%	—	×0.810	10.97%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×1.100	9.17%
HR / BF /BF	4.17%	÷1.000	×1.200	5.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.30 → 6.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAALouisville Bats · 4 IPFIP 9.18 → 9.46 (+0.28)K% 4.0% → 3.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	4.00%	—	×0.860	3.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.00%	—	×0.900	14.40%
HR / BF /BF	8.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	8.80%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 9.18 → 9.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 26 IPFIP 4.17 → 4.75 (+0.58)K% 14.5% → 11.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.55%	—	×0.810	11.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.36%	—	×1.100	7.00%
HR / BF /BF	2.73%	÷1.021	×1.200	3.20%

Result: FIP 4.17 → 4.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ADaytona Tortugas · 13 IPFIP 4.98 → 5.74 (+0.76)K% 9.3% → 6.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	9.26%	—	×0.740	6.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.96%	—	×1.180	15.30%
HR / BF /BF	1.85%	÷1.032	×1.300	2.33%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 106).

Result: FIP 4.98 → 5.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 126 IPFIP 4.82 → 5.38 (+0.56)K% 15.6% → 12.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.59%	—	×0.810	12.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.42%	—	×1.100	9.27%
HR / BF /BF	3.58%	÷1.089	×1.200	3.95%

Result: FIP 4.82 → 5.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Dayton Dragons · 67 IPFIP 3.63 → 4.66 (+1.03)K% 22.2% → 17.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.22%	—	×0.770	17.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.78%	—	×1.150	8.94%
HR / BF /BF	2.59%	÷0.951	×1.250	3.41%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 3.63 → 4.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 48 IPFIP 5.45 → 6.08 (+0.63)K% 9.7% → 7.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	9.73%	—	×0.810	7.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.73%	—	×1.100	10.71%
HR / BF /BF	3.54%	÷1.017	×1.200	4.18%

Result: FIP 5.45 → 6.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Dayton Dragons · 99 IPFIP 4.09 → 5.05 (+0.96)K% 23.4% → 18.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.39%	—	×0.770	18.01%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.49%	—	×1.150	9.76%
HR / BF /BF	3.44%	÷1.058	×1.250	4.06%

Result: FIP 4.09 → 5.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Thomas Farr (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.44	13.0%	9.3%	3.4%	—	5.45	13.8%	4.3%	26	+0.01	—	—	—
Eddie Bonine R 2009 · 5.60 FIP	28	SW	5.60	13.1%	7.6%	4.8%	.306	4.54	8.6%	2.0%	68	-1.06	4.40	129	84
Jon Leicester R 2007 · 4.44 FIP	28	SP-	4.44	11.0%	9.0%	2.1%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	81
Jared Fernandez R 2001 · 4.66 FIP	29	SW	4.66	8.8%	10.5%	1.8%	.267	3.95	14.0%	5.6%	89	-0.71	3.57	101	79
Aldo Montes R 2017 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.4%	8.5%	3.3%	.322	4.69	18.2%	7.6%	75	-0.27	4.69	210	79
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	78
Jeff Manship R 2013 · 5.11 FIP	28	SW	5.11	12.9%	7.9%	3.8%	.298	3.57	20.0%	11.7%	137	-1.54	2.83	250	78
Orlando Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	13.7%	10.6%	2.5%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	119	77
Zach Stewart R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP-	4.43	14.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.322	5.17	11.7%	2.1%	51	+0.74	4.27	194	76
Clay Condrey R 2003 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP-	5.41	14.9%	10.1%	4.2%	.303	4.07	13.1%	7.4%	29	-1.34	3.18	250	76
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	75
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	75
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	75
Alex Caldera R 2015 · 5.57 FIP	29	SW	5.57	10.4%	13.1%	3.1%	.333	4.54	11.9%	0.8%	84	-1.03	4.54	120	75
Francisco Cordova R 2015 · 5.51 FIP	31	SW	5.51	6.4%	4.6%	4.3%	.261	4.59	7.1%	-0.6%	83	-0.92	4.59	115	75
Alfonso Sanchez R 2016 · 5.26 FIP	28	SW	5.26	15.9%	7.4%	4.7%	.244	5.55	11.2%	2.3%	115	+0.29	4.51	224	75
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	75
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	74
Donovan Hand R 2013 · 4.72 FIP	27	SW	4.72	12.9%	7.0%	3.3%	.279	4.30	11.1%	6.8%	97	-0.42	4.30	305	74
Bradin Hagens R 2018 · 4.92 FIP	29	SP-	4.92	14.9%	9.9%	3.3%	.341	5.46	13.2%	0.6%	66	+0.54	3.79	254	73
Mike McCarthy R 2016 · 5.03 FIP	28	SW	5.03	6.2%	9.7%	2.2%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.78	153	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	28	13.4%	9.4%	1.34	5.42
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Mike Lincoln ('10)	1.9	54	14.1%	8.9%	1.32	5.33
Jeff Manship ('16)	1.1	32	16.5%	9.3%	1.05	4.82
Dennis Powell ('85-'93, -2 WAR*)	1.7	49	17.6%*	10.1%*	1.18*	5.31*
Larry Casian ('90-'98, 0 WAR*)	1.2	40	14.7%*	6.8%*	1.25*	4.37*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*