Connor Staine — OGILVIE

Connor Staine P Hartford Yard Goats

Age 25 RHP 6'4" / 200 lbs AA peak 0.4 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION123 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143135vR 127

ERA5.79

FIP5.79

K%13.8%

BB%14.4%

K-BB%-0.6%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 130 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4040

CMD3030

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	21	20	94	418	93	28	8	95%	4.5	16.5%	7.9%	8.6%	2.1%	5.25	3.86	—
2023	22	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	21	20	94	418	93	28	8	95%	4.5	16.5%	7.9%	8.6%	2.1%	5.25	3.86	—
2023	22	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	21	20	94	418	93	28	8	95%	4.5	22.2%	6.7%	15.6%	1.9%	5.25	3.12	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	20	19	90	383	101	42	11	95%	4.5	20.3%	12.6%	7.7%	3.3%	4.48	4.80	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	20	19	90	383	101	42	11	95%	4.5	20.3%	12.6%	7.7%	3.3%	4.48	4.80	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Spokane Indians	20	19	90	383	101	42	11	95%	4.5	26.4%	11.0%	15.4%	2.9%	4.48	3.84	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	25	25	106	475	82	56	15	100%	4.3	14.0%	13.0%	1.0%	3.0%	4.91	5.22	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	25	25	106	475	82	56	15	100%	4.3	14.0%	13.0%	1.0%	3.0%	4.91	5.22	—
2025	24	AA RAW	Hartford Yard Goats	25	25	106	475	82	56	15	100%	4.3	17.3%	11.8%	5.5%	3.2%	4.91	4.97	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	25	22	123	528	117	60	16	88%	4.9	17.9%	12.5%	5.4%	3.6%	4.60	5.16	—
YTD	25	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	25	22	123	528	117	60	16	88%	4.9	17.9%	12.5%	5.4%	3.6%	4.60	5.16	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AA RAW	COL	25	22	123	528	117	60	16	88%	4.9	22.2%	11.4%	10.8%	3.0%	4.60	4.33	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	COL	1	1	6	27	4	4	1	100%	6.4	13.8%	14.4%	-0.6%	3.0%	5.79	5.79	-0.1
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	COL	—	—	130	555	121	64	17	—	—	21.8%	11.5%	10.2%	3.0%	4.66	5.19	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	COL	20	20	121	510	79	70	15	100%	6.0	15.4%	13.7%	1.7%	3.0%	5.59	5.56	-0.9
2028	27	MLB MLE	COL	20	20	119	502	80	67	15	100%	6.0	15.9%	13.3%	2.6%	3.1%	5.50	5.50	-0.8
2029	28	MLB MLE	COL	19	19	115	487	78	64	15	100%	6.1	16.1%	13.2%	2.9%	3.2%	5.49	5.53	-0.8
2030	29	MLB MLE	COL	18	18	110	465	74	62	15	100%	6.1	16.0%	13.3%	2.7%	3.3%	5.56	5.63	-0.9
2031	30	MLB MLE	COL	17	17	104	437	69	59	15	100%	6.1	15.7%	13.6%	2.1%	3.5%	5.71	5.80	-1.0
2027	26	MLB CTX	COL	9	9	53	224	35	31	7	100%	5.9	15.4%	13.7%	1.7%	3.0%	5.59	5.56	-0.4
2028	27	MLB CTX	COL	12	12	75	317	50	42	10	100%	6.2	15.9%	13.3%	2.6%	3.1%	5.50	5.50	-0.5
2029	28	MLB CTX	COL	14	14	87	367	59	48	12	100%	6.2	16.1%	13.2%	2.9%	3.2%	5.49	5.53	-0.6
2030	29	MLB CTX	COL	15	15	90	380	61	51	13	100%	6.0	16.0%	13.3%	2.7%	3.3%	5.56	5.63	-0.7
2031	30	MLB CTX	COL	15	15	89	376	59	51	13	100%	5.9	15.7%	13.6%	2.1%	3.5%	5.71	5.80	-0.9
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		66	66	395	1666	264	223	54	100%	6.0	15.9%	13.4%	2.5%	3.2%	5.57	5.23	-1.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	134	113	27	100%	6.0	15.9%	13.4%	2.5%	3.2%	5.57	5.23	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		91	86	414	1804	308	209	55	95%	4.6	17.1%	11.6%	5.5%	3.0%	4.80	4.80	-4.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	42	200	871	149	101	27	95%	4.6	17.1%	11.6%	5.5%	3.0%	4.80	4.80	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Connor Staine (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.79	13.8%	14.4%	3.0%	—	5.53	15.8%	2.4%	355	-0.26	—	—	—
Sam Wolff R 2016 · 5.72 FIP	25	SP	5.72	13.9%	15.0%	3.5%	.278	3.15	25.1%	15.5%	106	-2.57	2.66	178	89
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.41	25.9%	11.8%	106	-0.76	3.84	202	86
Baron Stuart R 2023 · 5.24 FIP	24	SP	5.24	14.5%	12.2%	3.3%	.266	4.23	17.6%	4.1%	205	-1.01	3.57	306	84
Jarred Cosart R 2015 · 5.07 FIP	25	SP	5.07	15.2%	10.8%	3.4%	.274	4.94	13.1%	-0.5%	132	-0.13	4.10	218	84
Johendí Jiminian R 2018 · 5.25 FIP	25	SP	5.25	14.0%	11.4%	3.5%	.282	4.41	13.9%	4.4%	94	-0.84	4.01	419	82
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	80
Johnny Hellweg R 2015 · 5.96 FIP	26	SP	5.96	9.9%	19.0%	2.4%	.269	4.06	15.2%	2.0%	48	-1.90	2.98	109	79
Jordan Cooper R 2015 · 5.01 FIP	26	SP	5.01	9.2%	10.2%	2.5%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	5.01	106	78
Jamison Hill R 2023 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP	4.72	16.2%	15.6%	1.8%	.248	5.44	16.0%	6.4%	84	+0.72	4.72	326	78
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	78
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	77
Will Carter R 2018 · 5.17 FIP	25	SP	5.17	11.1%	18.0%	1.3%	.305	4.29	15.0%	1.2%	105	-0.88	3.15	335	77
Drew Gagnon R 2015 · 5.56 FIP	25	SP-	5.56	11.6%	12.6%	3.4%	.313	4.02	20.4%	12.2%	311	-1.54	3.71	534	77
Mason Pelio R 2023 · 6.38 FIP	23	SP-	6.38	13.3%	17.4%	4.0%	.255	5.88	9.0%	-12.8%	26	-0.50	5.88	122	77
Jacob Watters R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	22	SP	4.87	18.3%	17.1%	2.1%	.319	4.38	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.49	3.85	165	77
Grant Judkins R 2022 · 6.22 FIP	24	SP	6.22	15.8%	13.4%	5.0%	.306	5.53	15.7%	6.6%	207	-0.69	5.13	322	76
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	75
Aaron Davenport R 2023 · 6.16 FIP	23	SP-	6.16	14.3%	14.7%	4.4%	.272	4.44	17.7%	7.9%	276	-1.72	4.04	498	75
Shaddon Peavyhouse R 2023 · 4.78 FIP	24	SP	4.78	14.7%	12.4%	2.5%	.299	5.21	14.8%	2.5%	137	+0.43	4.43	270	75
Chase Solesky R 2023 · 4.80 FIP	25	SP	4.80	14.6%	10.0%	3.0%	.322	4.49	15.4%	8.2%	268	-0.31	4.07	563	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.2	107	15.6%	13.5%	1.23	5.59
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Dylan Covey ('23)	1.5	73	15.4%	9.9%	1.53	6.14
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74