Connor Staine — OGILVIE

Connor Staine P Hartford Yard Goats

+0.0 WAR

Age 25 RHP 6'4" / 200 lbs AA peak 0.5 · 2028

ERA5.09

FIP5.09

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%18.1%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%6.6%

IP100

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.5peak

2028

STUF3535

CTRL4040

CMD3030

K†4040

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	22	A	Fresno Grizzlies	21	20	94	418	93	28	8	16.5%	7.9%	2.1%	5.25	3.85	+1.5
2024	23	A+	Spokane Indians	20	19	90	383	101	42	11	20.3%	12.6%	3.3%	4.48	4.78	+0.4
2025	24	AA	Hartford Yard Goats	25	25	106	475	82	56	15	14.0%	13.0%	3.2%	4.91	5.31	-0.0
▸ 2026 Season
2026	25	AA	Hartford Yard Goats	2	1	6	29	7	6	0	—	—	—	12.71	—	—
ROS	25	MLB	COL	18	18	100	423	69	58	13	16.3%	13.6%	3.1%	5.51	5.51	-0.2
2026 Total	25	MLB	COL	—	—	106	452	76	64	13	16.8%	14.1%	2.9%	5.89	5.22	+0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	26	MLB	COL	20	20	107	453	78	59	14	17.3%	13.0%	3.1%	5.36	5.34	-0.0
2028	27	MLB	COL	20	20	110	467	82	59	14	17.7%	12.6%	3.1%	5.27	5.27	+0.0
2029	28	MLB	COL	20	20	111	468	84	58	14	17.8%	12.4%	3.1%	5.23	5.25	+0.1
2030	29	MLB	COL	20	20	108	457	82	57	14	17.8%	12.4%	3.1%	5.24	5.26	+0.0
2031	30	MLB	COL	19	19	105	444	78	55	14	17.6%	12.5%	3.2%	5.29	5.33	-0.0
2032	31	MLB	COL	18	18	101	428	74	54	14	17.4%	12.6%	3.3%	5.36	5.40	-0.1
2033	32	MLB	COL	18	18	97	411	70	52	14	17.1%	12.8%	3.4%	5.44	5.49	-0.2
2034	33	MLB	COL	17	17	93	392	66	51	13	16.8%	12.9%	3.4%	5.53	5.59	-0.4
2035	34	MLB	COL	16	16	88	373	61	49	13	16.4%	13.1%	3.5%	5.63	5.70	-0.5
2036	35	MLB	COL	15	15	83	351	56	47	13	16.1%	13.4%	3.6%	5.74	5.82	-0.6
2037	36	MLB	COL	14	14	78	328	58	42	12	17.6%	12.8%	3.8%	5.71	5.68	-0.5
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			68	65	297	1305	220	149	36	16.9%	11.4%	2.8%	5.04	4.65	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—			46	44	200	880	148	100	24	16.9%	11.4%	2.8%	5.04	4.65	+1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Connor Staine (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.51	16.3%	13.6%	3.1%	—	5.29	17.6%	4.9%	329	-0.22	—	—	—
J.P. France R 2025 · 5.33 FIP	24	SP-	5.33	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.26	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.07	4.07	530	89
Carlos Sano R 2026 · 4.88 FIP	25	SP-	4.88	17.6%	11.2%	3.4%	.282	9.12	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.24	4.88	105	89
Jarred Cosart R 2026 · 5.09 FIP	25	SP-	5.09	15.2%	10.8%	3.5%	.274	4.93	13.1%	-0.5%	132	-0.16	4.10	218	88
Hunter Adkins R 2026 · 4.71 FIP	25	SP-	4.71	16.2%	10.3%	3.0%	.290	4.81	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.10	4.71	160	88
Roman Angelo R 2026 · 5.38 FIP	25	SP-	5.38	17.4%	13.7%	3.7%	.277	6.22	20.6%	10.6%	12	+0.84	4.02	262	87
Jake Bockenstedt R 2026 · 4.46 FIP	25	SP-	4.46	16.9%	11.4%	2.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	195	87
Dennis O'Grady R 2027 · 4.98 FIP	26	SP-	4.98	13.5%	11.0%	3.0%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	157	86
Chase Solesky R 2026 · 4.96 FIP	25	SP-	4.96	15.2%	11.2%	3.1%	.322	4.60	15.7%	7.4%	205	-0.36	4.07	501	86
Paxton Schultz R 2026 · 5.02 FIP	25	SP-	5.02	19.7%	13.2%	3.5%	.319	4.03	23.9%	13.7%	166	-0.99	3.98	481	85
Carlos Tavera R 2026 · 5.28 FIP	25	SP-	5.28	18.5%	14.8%	3.4%	.299	4.06	21.0%	6.9%	15	-1.22	4.06	249	85
Mike Franco R 2026 · 4.74 FIP	25	SP-	4.74	17.2%	12.9%	2.7%	.251	4.33	21.9%	12.7%	98	-0.41	3.10	322	84
Aaron Northcraft R 2026 · 4.39 FIP	25	SP-	4.39	13.6%	10.2%	2.1%	.286	4.23	16.1%	7.8%	91	-0.16	3.32	252	84
Jacob Cravey R 2024 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	15.7%	12.6%	3.0%	.246	—	—	—	—	—	4.99	176	84
Tyler Santana R 2026 · 4.46 FIP	25	SP-	4.46	15.4%	10.3%	2.5%	.306	5.12	14.4%	3.5%	146	+0.66	3.37	353	84
Nic Swanson R 2026 · 4.93 FIP	25	SP-	4.93	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.286	5.22	16.8%	4.4%	61	+0.29	4.24	367	83
Boone Whiting R 2026 · 5.31 FIP	25	SP-	5.31	11.3%	13.9%	2.5%	.337	4.89	10.9%	4.8%	132	-0.42	4.89	227	83
Drew Gagnon R 2026 · 5.59 FIP	25	SP-	5.59	11.6%	12.6%	3.4%	.313	4.02	20.4%	12.2%	311	-1.57	3.70	534	83
Wil Jensen R 2026 · 4.90 FIP	25	SP-	4.90	20.2%	12.1%	3.6%	.284	3.50	22.7%	14.3%	84	-1.40	3.50	368	83
Kyle Haynes R 2026 · 4.58 FIP	25	SP-	4.58	15.7%	9.9%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	240	83
Matt Ruppenthal R 2026 · 4.62 FIP	25	SP-	4.62	18.5%	13.8%	2.5%	.308	4.35	22.9%	7.2%	102	-0.27	3.75	283	82

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.