Connor Staine

P Hartford Yard Goats

Age 26 RHP 6'4" / 200 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	24	AACOL	25	25	106	4.91	4.97	17.3%	11.8%	—	K 14.0% · BB 13.0% · FIP 5.22
2026	25	AACOL	25	22	123	4.60	4.35	22.2%	11.4%	—	K 17.9% · BB 12.5% · FIP 5.16
2027PROJ	26	MLBCOL	1	1	2	5.82	5.82	15.2%	14.7%	-0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBCOL	5	5	30	5.68	5.70	15.9%	14.0%	-0.1
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBCOL	7	7	41	5.63	5.67	16.2%	13.7%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control40Command30

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 0.6, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsHayden Merda (age 23) · M.D. Johnson (age 26) · Jake Bockenstedt (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 144136vR 127

ERA5.82

FIP5.82

K%15.2%

BB%14.7%

K-BB%0.6%

Proj IP80

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 80 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4040

CMD3030

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	21	20	94	418	93	28	8	95%	4.5	16.5%	7.9%	8.6%	2.1%	5.25	3.86	—
2023	22	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	21	20	94	418	93	28	8	95%	4.5	22.2%	6.7%	15.6%	1.9%	5.25	3.12	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	20	19	90	383	101	42	11	95%	4.5	20.3%	12.6%	7.7%	3.3%	4.48	4.80	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	20	19	90	383	101	42	11	95%	4.5	20.3%	12.6%	7.7%	3.3%	4.48	4.80	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Spokane Indians	20	19	90	383	101	42	11	95%	4.5	26.4%	11.0%	15.4%	2.9%	4.48	3.84	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	25	25	106	475	82	56	15	100%	4.3	14.0%	13.0%	1.0%	3.0%	4.91	5.22	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	25	25	106	475	82	56	15	100%	4.3	14.0%	13.0%	1.0%	3.0%	4.91	5.22	—
2025	24	AA RAW	Hartford Yard Goats	25	25	106	475	82	56	15	100%	4.3	17.3%	11.8%	5.5%	3.2%	4.91	4.97	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	25	22	123	528	117	60	16	88%	4.9	17.9%	12.5%	5.4%	3.6%	4.60	5.16	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	25	22	123	528	117	60	16	88%	4.9	17.9%	12.5%	5.4%	3.6%	4.60	5.16	—
2026	25	AA RAW	Hartford Yard Goats	25	22	123	528	117	60	16	88%	4.9	22.2%	11.4%	10.8%	3.0%	4.60	4.35	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	COL	1	1	2	8	1	1	0	100%	2.0	15.2%	14.7%	0.6%	3.2%	5.82	5.82	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	COL	13	13	81	342	54	48	11	100%	6.2	15.9%	14.0%	1.9%	3.3%	5.68	5.70	-0.3
2029	28	MLB MLE	COL	11	11	69	290	47	40	10	100%	6.2	16.2%	13.7%	2.5%	3.3%	5.63	5.67	-0.2
2030	29	MLB MLE	COL	10	10	62	261	43	36	9	100%	6.2	16.3%	13.6%	2.7%	3.5%	5.67	5.73	-0.2
2031	30	MLB MLE	COL	9	9	56	238	38	33	9	100%	6.3	16.1%	13.8%	2.3%	3.7%	5.78	5.87	-0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	COL	5	5	30	127	20	18	4	100%	6.0	15.9%	14.0%	1.9%	3.3%	5.68	5.70	-0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	COL	7	7	41	173	28	24	6	100%	5.9	16.2%	13.7%	2.5%	3.3%	5.63	5.67	-0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	COL	7	7	44	186	30	25	6	100%	6.3	16.3%	13.6%	2.7%	3.5%	5.67	5.73	-0.2
2031	30	MLB CTX	COL	7	7	44	186	30	26	7	100%	6.3	16.1%	13.8%	2.3%	3.7%	5.78	5.87	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		27	27	159	672	108	92	23	100%	5.9	16.1%	13.8%	2.4%	3.4%	5.69	5.37	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	136	116	29	100%	6.0	16.1%	13.8%	2.4%	3.4%	5.69	5.37	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		91	86	414	1804	308	209	55	95%	4.6	17.1%	11.6%	5.5%	3.0%	4.80	4.80	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	42	200	871	149	101	27	95%	4.6	17.1%	11.6%	5.5%	3.0%	4.80	4.80	-0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAHartford Yard Goats · 123 IPFIP 4.33 → 5.16 (+0.83)K% 22.2% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.16%	—	×0.810	17.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.36%	—	×1.100	12.50%
HR / BF /BF	3.03%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.64%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.33 → 5.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAHartford Yard Goats · 106 IPFIP 4.87 → 5.22 (+0.35)K% 17.3% → 14.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.26%	—	×0.810	13.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.79%	—	×1.100	12.97%
HR / BF /BF	3.16%	÷1.255	×1.200	3.02%

Result: FIP 4.87 → 5.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Spokane Indians · 90 IPFIP 3.84 → 4.80 (+0.96)K% 26.4% → 20.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.37%	—	×0.770	20.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.97%	—	×1.150	12.61%
HR / BF /BF	2.87%	÷1.086	×1.250	3.31%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 117).

Result: FIP 3.84 → 4.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AFresno Grizzlies · 94 IPFIP 3.12 → 3.86 (+0.74)K% 22.2% → 16.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.25%	—	×0.740	16.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.70%	—	×1.180	7.90%
HR / BF /BF	1.91%	÷1.186	×1.300	2.10%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 137).

Result: FIP 3.12 → 3.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Connor Staine (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.82	15.2%	14.7%	3.2%	—	5.70	16.1%	2.3%	211	-0.12	—	—	—
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.59	25.5%	10.9%	108	-0.58	4.20	203	84
M.D. Johnson R 2023 · 5.64 FIP	26	SP	5.64	16.4%	12.7%	4.2%	.254	3.52	14.6%	4.7%	67	-2.12	3.52	395	81
Jake Bockenstedt R 2024 · 6.05 FIP	24	SP	6.05	17.0%	13.1%	5.0%	.322	4.35	16.8%	5.4%	126	-1.70	3.74	218	80
Joe Nathan R 2000 · 5.19 FIP	25	SP-	5.19	14.3%	13.8%	2.8%	.262	3.30	26.3%	16.8%	79	-1.89	1.25	929	80
Jordan Cooper R 2015 · 5.01 FIP	26	SP	5.01	9.2%	10.2%	2.5%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	5.01	106	77
Paul Rigdon R 2001 · 5.34 FIP	25	SP	5.34	13.6%	11.1%	3.6%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	5.29	167	77
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	77
Nic Swanson R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	25	SP	4.91	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.286	5.43	19.9%	6.5%	132	+0.52	4.29	438	75
J.P. Massey R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP	4.72	16.1%	14.2%	2.1%	.283	5.71	15.5%	-1.3%	46	+0.99	4.72	195	75
Nick Pasquale R 2017 · 4.74 FIP	26	SP-	4.74	16.8%	12.7%	2.6%	.306	3.80	17.9%	6.3%	50	-0.94	3.19	308	75
Jarrod Cande R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SP	5.42	16.7%	11.0%	4.3%	.256	5.72	11.7%	-3.6%	23	+0.30	4.31	315	74
Andrew Quezada R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	26	SP-	5.33	14.4%	9.5%	4.1%	.344	4.90	12.7%	5.3%	173	-0.43	4.40	412	74
Will Schomberg R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	23	SP	4.85	21.4%	15.6%	2.9%	.266	3.86	23.3%	11.7%	90	-0.99	3.86	206	74
Alex Blackford R 2017 · 5.59 FIP	26	SP	5.59	14.9%	12.5%	4.0%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	229	74
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	73
Ben Meyer R 2019 · 5.58 FIP	26	SP	5.58	19.4%	13.1%	4.5%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	2.32	387	73
Justin Miller R 2004 · 5.41 FIP	26	SP-	5.41	12.5%	10.4%	3.7%	.316	2.63	28.6%	21.7%	62	-2.78	2.63	373	72
Jackson Tetreault R 2022 · 5.30 FIP	26	SP	5.30	15.9%	10.2%	4.1%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	404	72
Mark Appel R 2017 · 5.14 FIP	26	SP	5.14	13.8%	14.6%	2.5%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.22	363	72
Noah Davis R 2023 · 4.88 FIP	26	SP	4.88	15.7%	11.3%	3.1%	.296	4.70	18.4%	8.6%	272	-0.18	3.76	596	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	70	15.9%	14.0%	1.30	5.72
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Matt Perisho ('05)	1.4	69	15.2%	12.2%	1.37	6.39
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Darrel Akerfelds ('86-'91, -3 WAR*)	1.2	78	15.8%*	11.9%*	1.61*	5.40*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Jim Winn ('83-'88, -1 WAR*)	1.5	77	15.1%*	11.0%*	1.09*	4.96*