Noah Davis
P
Indianapolis Indians
+0.0
WAR
Age 29
RHP
6'2" / 219 lbs
AAA
ERA6.81
FIP4.85
xFIP5.64
SIERA3.84
K%21.1%
BB%10.3%
K-BB%10.8%
IP70
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
STUF4040
CTRL5050
CMD4040
K†4545
FB Velo
p5494.8
Whiff%
p5826.6%
K%
p5523.1%
xwOBA vs
p100.492
CH (3%)
SI (37%)
CT-0.6 (19%)
SL-5.2 (33%)
FB-7.7 (45%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 22 | ROK | AZL Reds | 5 | 5 | 8 | 37 | 5 | 0 | 4 | — | — | — | 7.88 | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 19 | 19 | 100 | 420 | 106 | 43 | 6 | 19.4% | 11.8% | 1.5% | 3.60 | 3.75 | +1.8 |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 28 | 27 | 139 | 614 | 156 | 63 | 27 | 20.9% | 11.2% | 5.3% | 5.50 | 5.69 | -0.6 |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 23 | 21 | 93 | 423 | 77 | 50 | 14 | 16.0% | 12.6% | 3.1% | 5.81 | 5.07 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 30 | 10 | 94 | 436 | 92 | 38 | 10 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 2.4% | 5.65 | 4.05 | +1.3 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 44 | 2 | 60 | 273 | 69 | 30 | 12 | 22.9% | 11.4% | 4.0% | 6.49 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 4 | 4 | 20 | 82 | 16 | 8 | 0 | 17.2% | 10.2% | 0.0% | 2.29 | 2.95 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | PIT | 13 | 13 | 70 | 296 | 56 | 32 | 10 | 18.8% | 11.0% | 3.4% | 7.10 | 5.18 | -0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 29 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 90 | 378 | 72 | 40 | 10 | 18.9% | 10.7% | 2.7% | 6.05 | 4.69 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | PIT | 12 | 12 | 68 | 287 | 54 | 31 | 10 | 18.7% | 10.9% | 3.5% | 5.91 | 5.18 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | PIT | 12 | 12 | 66 | 277 | 51 | 30 | 10 | 18.5% | 10.9% | 3.5% | 5.47 | 5.22 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | PIT | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 48 | 29 | 9 | 18.1% | 11.0% | 3.6% | 5.35 | 5.29 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | PIT | 11 | 11 | 60 | 254 | 45 | 28 | 9 | 17.5% | 11.1% | 3.6% | 5.37 | 5.39 | -0.3 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | PIT | 57 | — | 57 | 242 | 41 | 27 | 9 | 16.9% | 11.3% | 3.7% | 5.47 | 5.53 | -0.4 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | PIT | 54 | — | 54 | 228 | 37 | 26 | 9 | 16.1% | 11.5% | 3.8% | 5.60 | 5.68 | -0.4 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | PIT | 50 | — | 50 | 213 | 33 | 25 | 8 | 15.3% | 11.8% | 4.0% | 5.75 | 5.85 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 153 | 88 | 513 | 2285 | 442 | 253 | 78 | 19.3% | 11.1% | 3.4% | 5.24 | 4.74 | +3.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 60 | 34 | 200 | 890 | 172 | 99 | 30 | 19.3% | 11.1% | 3.4% | 5.24 | 4.74 | +1.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Noah Davis (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.18 | 18.8% | 11.0% | 3.4% | — | 5.23 | 18.4% | 7.5% | 197 | +0.05 | — | — | — |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2027 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 83 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 4.78 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.78 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .297 | 3.85 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.93 | 3.85 | 102 | 82 |
| Javy Guerra R 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .303 | 3.87 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.43 | 3.01 | 260 | 79 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2025 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.38 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.82 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.44 | 4.38 | 101 | 79 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2025 · 4.82 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.82 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .275 | 6.70 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +1.88 | 3.88 | 180 | 79 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.6% | .241 | 3.99 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.34 | 3.47 | 149 | 78 |
| Angel Castro R 2029 · 4.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.53 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .268 | 4.27 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.26 | 3.50 | 292 | 77 |
| Zack Segovia R 2029 · 4.81 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | .314 | 3.37 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.44 | 3.37 | 144 | 76 |
| Pedro Beato R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.25 | 19.2% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .275 | 3.71 | 18.5% | 11.1% | 152 | -0.54 | 3.46 | 295 | 76 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2028 · 5.21 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.21 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .253 | 3.95 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.26 | 3.80 | 132 | 75 |
| Gregory Infante R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.46 | 19.0% | 12.3% | 2.6% | .333 | 3.47 | 22.5% | 15.8% | 120 | -0.99 | 2.97 | 230 | 75 |
| Eder Llamas R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.85 | 12.3% | 8.8% | 3.1% | .261 | 3.65 | 11.3% | 4.6% | 120 | -1.20 | 3.23 | 171 | 75 |
| Dan Winkler R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.93 | 20.6% | 15.2% | 3.0% | .237 | 4.40 | 23.0% | 8.4% | 104 | -0.53 | 2.47 | 231 | 75 |
| Beck Wheeler R 2025 · 5.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.38 | 15.3% | 12.2% | 3.7% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.46 | 173 | 74 |
| Mike Adams R 2024 · 5.39 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.39 | 17.1% | 11.2% | 4.2% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 109 | 74 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.49 | 16.5% | 10.4% | 2.7% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 187 | 74 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.90 | 17.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | .426 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 133 | 74 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2027 · 5.16 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.16 | 18.6% | 7.6% | 4.9% | .373 | 3.54 | 18.5% | 9.3% | 93 | -1.62 | 3.45 | 170 | 74 |
| Roman Mendez R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.49 | 20.8% | 11.1% | 3.2% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.12 | 230 | 74 |
| Adrian Garza R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.44 | 16.0% | 7.0% | 3.3% | .351 | 5.10 | 9.7% | 4.1% | 113 | +0.66 | 3.95 | 229 | 74 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.