Noah Davis — OGILVIE

Noah Davis P Indianapolis Indians

Age 29 RHP 6'2" / 219 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION122 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.51

FIP5.15

K%18.0%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%7.8%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 128 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5494.8

Whiff%

p5826.6%

p5523.1%

xwOBA vs

p100.492

CH (3%)

SI (37%)

CT-0.6 (19%)

SL-5.2 (33%)

FB-7.7 (45%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	22	ROK MLE	AZL Reds	5	5	8	37	5	0	4	100%	1.6	13.5%	0.0%	13.5%	10.8%	7.88	7.89	—
2019	22	ROK RAW	AZL Reds	5	5	8	37	5	0	4	100%	1.6	13.5%	0.0%	13.5%	10.8%	7.88	8.35	—
2021	24	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	19	19	100	420	106	43	6	100%	5.3	19.4%	11.8%	7.7%	1.5%	3.60	3.76	—
2021	24	A+ RAW	Spokane Indians	19	19	100	420	106	43	6	100%	5.3	25.2%	10.2%	15.0%	1.4%	3.60	3.05	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	27	139	614	156	63	27	96%	5.0	20.9%	11.2%	9.7%	5.3%	5.50	5.69	-1.2
2022	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	27	139	614	156	63	27	96%	5.0	25.4%	10.3%	15.1%	4.4%	5.50	4.74	+0.3
2023	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	21	93	423	77	50	14	91%	4.0	15.4%	11.3%	4.1%	3.1%	5.81	4.91	-0.0
2023	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	21	93	423	77	50	14	91%	4.0	15.4%	11.3%	4.1%	3.1%	5.81	4.91	-0.0
2023	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	21	93	423	77	50	14	91%	4.0	18.2%	11.8%	6.4%	3.3%	5.81	5.01	-0.1
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	10	94	436	92	38	10	33%	3.1	18.0%	8.4%	9.6%	2.3%	5.65	3.93	+0.7
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	10	94	436	92	38	10	33%	3.1	18.0%	8.4%	9.6%	2.3%	5.65	3.93	+0.7
2024	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	10	94	436	92	38	10	33%	3.1	21.1%	8.7%	12.4%	2.3%	5.65	3.74	+0.9
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	2	60	273	69	30	12	5%	1.4	21.9%	10.1%	11.8%	4.2%	6.49	4.81	-0.2
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	2	60	273	69	30	12	5%	1.4	21.9%	10.1%	11.8%	4.2%	6.49	4.81	-0.2
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	2	60	273	69	30	12	5%	1.4	25.3%	11.0%	14.3%	4.4%	6.49	4.91	-0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			27	6	62	314	58	29	17	22%	2.3	18.5%	9.2%	9.2%	5.4%	9.53	6.18	-1.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	28	25	122	567	109	66	20	89%	4.4	16.0%	10.5%	5.5%	3.9%	5.98	5.21	—
YTD	29	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	28	25	122	567	109	66	20	89%	4.4	16.0%	10.5%	5.5%	3.9%	5.98	5.21	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	AAA RAW	PIT	28	25	122	567	109	66	20	89%	4.4	19.2%	11.6%	7.6%	3.5%	5.98	4.89	—
ROS	29	MLB MLE	PIT	1	1	6	25	5	3	1	100%	5.9	18.0%	10.2%	7.8%	3.5%	5.51	5.15	-0.0
2026 TOT	29	MLB MLE	PIT	—	—	128	592	114	69	21	—	—	19.2%	11.6%	7.6%	3.5%	5.95	5.21	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	PIT	11	11	66	280	50	29	10	100%	6.0	17.8%	10.4%	7.4%	3.6%	5.34	5.28	-0.3
2028	31	MLB MLE	PIT	10	10	62	261	46	28	10	100%	6.2	17.5%	10.7%	6.8%	3.8%	5.37	5.44	-0.4
2027	30	MLB CTX	PIT	4	4	24	101	18	11	4	100%	6.0	17.8%	10.4%	7.4%	3.6%	5.34	5.28	-0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	PIT	6	6	34	144	25	15	5	100%	5.7	17.5%	10.7%	6.8%	3.8%	5.37	5.44	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		37	16	121	563	102	55	26	43%	3.3	18.1%	9.8%	8.3%	4.7%	7.50	5.38	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		61	26	200	928	168	91	43	43%	3.3	18.1%	9.8%	8.3%	4.7%	7.50	5.38	-1.9
Career	—	MLE		177	109	616	2770	509	290	99	62%	3.5	18.4%	10.5%	7.9%	3.6%	5.48	4.84	-1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	35	200	900	165	94	32	62%	3.5	18.4%	10.5%	7.9%	3.6%	5.48	4.84	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Noah Davis (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.15	18.0%	10.2%	3.5%	—	5.36	17.7%	7.1%	128	+0.21	—	—	—
Carlos Frías R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	29	SP-	4.42	16.9%	11.1%	2.4%	.369	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	204	72
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	69
Paul Clemens R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	29	SW	4.72	14.9%	11.0%	2.7%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	247	69
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2019 · 4.70 FIP	29	SP-	4.70	15.8%	12.6%	2.5%	.265	—	—	—	—	—	3.22	221	69
Justin Masterson R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	30	SP-	4.10	18.2%	10.5%	2.2%	.307	3.73	17.3%	6.4%	196	-0.37	3.50	269	69
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	68
Orlando Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	13.7%	10.6%	2.5%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	119	68
Bradin Hagens R 2018 · 4.92 FIP	29	SP-	4.92	14.9%	9.9%	3.3%	.341	5.46	13.2%	0.6%	66	+0.54	3.79	254	68
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	67
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	67
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	66
Jose A. Flores R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	29	SP-	4.77	13.7%	10.3%	2.8%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	237	66
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	66
Kris Medlen R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	29	SP-	4.82	15.4%	6.4%	4.0%	.261	5.17	17.1%	8.6%	173	+0.35	4.59	261	66
Steve Johnson R 2017 · 4.53 FIP	29	SW	4.53	20.3%	8.9%	3.7%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	2.22	152	66
Derek Eitel R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	29	SP-	4.72	17.2%	16.0%	1.9%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	138	65
Alfonso Sanchez R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	29	SW	4.51	12.5%	9.8%	2.2%	.346	7.58	8.6%	1.4%	39	+3.07	4.51	224	65
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.85 FIP	27	SP-	5.85	13.9%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	65
Noah Song R 2023 · 6.06 FIP	26	SP	6.06	12.0%	13.2%	4.2%	.239	3.84	19.6%	8.0%	114	-2.22	3.68	136	64
Trevor Cahill R 2017 · 5.13 FIP	29	SP-	5.13	22.8%	11.5%	4.5%	.321	4.36	21.3%	11.7%	251	-0.77	3.37	556	64

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	66	17.8%	10.4%	1.40	5.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50
Dylan Covey ('23)	1.5	73	15.4%	9.9%	1.53	6.14