Noah Davis

P Indianapolis Indians

Age 30 RHP 6'2" / 219 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	27	MIX3 levels	30	10	94	5.65	3.74	21.1%	8.7%	0.9	K 18.5% · BB 8.4% · FIP 3.88
2025	28	MIX2 levels	44	2	60	6.49	4.91	25.3%	11.0%	-0.3	K 22.5% · BB 10.1% · FIP 4.76
2026	29	AAAPIT	29	25	124	6.11	5.19	18.9%	11.8%	—	K 16.3% · BB 10.6% · FIP 5.27
2027PROJ	30	MLBPIT	1	1	7	5.30	5.48	16.5%	10.9%	-0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	31	MLBPIT	3	3	18	5.43	5.59	16.4%	11.1%	-0.0
2029PROJ55% MLB	32	MLBPIT	4	4	21	5.58	5.75	16.2%	11.4%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.7 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

K%55

FB Velo54

xwOBA vs10

CompsElian Leyva (age 30) · Travis Smith (age 29) · Juan Omar Espinoza (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137129vR 121

ERA5.30

FIP5.48

K%16.5%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%5.6%

Proj IP69

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5494.8

Whiff%

p5826.6%

p5523.1%

xwOBA vs

p100.492

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	22	ROK MLE	AZL Reds	5	5	8	37	5	0	4	100%	1.6	13.5%	0.0%	13.5%	10.8%	7.88	7.89	—
2019	22	ROK RAW	AZL Reds	5	5	8	37	5	0	4	100%	1.6	13.5%	0.0%	13.5%	10.8%	7.88	8.35	—
2021	24	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	19	19	100	420	106	43	6	100%	5.3	19.4%	11.8%	7.7%	1.5%	3.60	3.76	—
2021	24	A+ RAW	Spokane Indians	19	19	100	420	106	43	6	100%	5.3	25.2%	10.2%	15.0%	1.4%	3.60	3.05	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	27	139	614	156	63	27	96%	5.0	20.9%	11.2%	9.7%	5.3%	5.50	5.69	-0.4
2022	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	27	139	614	156	63	27	96%	5.0	25.4%	10.3%	15.1%	4.4%	5.50	4.74	+1.1
2023	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	21	93	423	77	50	14	91%	4.0	15.7%	11.3%	4.4%	3.1%	5.81	4.88	+0.6
2023	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	21	93	423	77	50	14	91%	4.0	18.2%	11.8%	6.4%	3.3%	5.81	5.01	+0.4
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	10	94	436	92	38	10	33%	3.1	18.5%	8.4%	10.1%	2.3%	5.65	3.88	+0.7
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	10	94	436	92	38	10	33%	3.1	18.5%	8.4%	10.1%	2.3%	5.65	3.88	+0.7
2024	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	10	94	436	92	38	10	33%	3.1	21.1%	8.7%	12.4%	2.3%	5.65	3.74	+0.9
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	2	60	273	69	30	12	5%	1.4	22.5%	10.1%	12.4%	4.2%	6.49	4.76	-0.1
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	2	60	273	69	30	12	5%	1.4	22.5%	10.1%	12.4%	4.2%	6.49	4.76	-0.1
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	2	60	273	69	30	12	5%	1.4	25.3%	11.0%	14.3%	4.4%	6.49	4.91	-0.3
2026	29	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	29	25	124	576	109	68	21	86%	4.3	16.3%	10.6%	5.6%	4.0%	6.11	5.27	—
2026	29	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	29	25	124	576	109	68	21	86%	4.3	16.3%	10.6%	5.6%	4.0%	6.11	5.27	—
2026	29	AAA RAW	Indianapolis Indians	29	25	124	576	109	68	21	86%	4.3	18.9%	11.8%	7.1%	3.6%	6.11	5.19	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			27	6	62	314	58	29	17	22%	2.3	18.5%	9.2%	9.2%	5.4%	9.53	6.18	-1.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	PIT	1	1	7	30	5	3	1	100%	7.0	16.5%	10.9%	5.6%	3.6%	5.30	5.48	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	PIT	8	8	48	203	33	23	8	100%	6.0	16.4%	11.1%	5.3%	3.8%	5.43	5.59	-0.1
2029	32	MLB MLE	PIT	6	6	38	161	26	18	6	100%	6.4	16.2%	11.4%	4.8%	4.0%	5.58	5.75	-0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	PIT	3	3	18	76	13	8	3	100%	6.0	16.4%	11.1%	5.3%	3.8%	5.43	5.59	-0.0
2029	32	MLB CTX	PIT	4	4	21	89	14	10	4	100%	5.2	16.2%	11.4%	4.8%	4.0%	5.58	5.75	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		33	12	101	477	85	47	23	36%	3.1	17.7%	9.9%	7.8%	4.9%	7.99	5.55	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		66	25	200	945	168	93	46	37%	3.0	17.7%	9.9%	7.8%	4.9%	7.99	5.55	-2.3
Career	—	MLE		178	109	617	2779	518	292	101	61%	3.5	18.6%	10.5%	8.1%	3.6%	5.51	4.84	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	35	200	900	168	95	33	61%	3.5	18.6%	10.5%	8.1%	3.6%	5.51	4.84	-1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 124 IPFIP 5.00 → 5.27 (+0.27)K% 18.9% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.92%	—	×0.860	16.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.81%	—	×0.900	10.62%
HR / BF /BF	3.65%	÷1.000	×1.100	4.01%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.00 → 5.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASt. Paul Saints · 49 IPFIP 3.69 → 3.69 (+0.00)K% 26.0% → 22.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.96%	—	×0.860	22.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.54%	—	×0.900	10.38%
HR / BF /BF	2.40%	÷1.253	×1.100	2.11%

Result: FIP 3.69 → 3.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 69 IPFIP 3.63 → 3.78 (+0.15)K% 22.6% → 19.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.57%	—	×0.860	19.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.72%	—	×0.900	8.75%
HR / BF /BF	2.19%	÷1.096	×1.100	2.20%

Result: FIP 3.63 → 3.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Rockies · 5 IPFIP 1.09 → 1.73 (+0.64)K% 23.8% → 16.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.81%	—	×0.680	16.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.250	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.044	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 109).

Result: FIP 1.09 → 1.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 60 IPFIP 4.79 → 4.87 (+0.09)K% 17.0% → 14.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.98%	—	×0.860	14.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.21%	—	×0.900	11.89%
HR / BF /BF	2.64%	÷1.062	×1.100	2.74%

Result: FIP 4.79 → 4.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAHartford Yard Goats · 133 IPFIP 4.64 → 5.69 (+1.05)K% 25.9% → 20.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.85%	—	×0.810	20.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.20%	—	×1.100	11.22%
HR / BF /BF	4.42%	÷0.992	×1.200	5.35%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 98).

Result: FIP 4.64 → 5.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Spokane Indians · 100 IPFIP 3.05 → 3.76 (+0.71)K% 25.2% → 19.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.24%	—	×0.770	19.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.24%	—	×1.150	11.77%
HR / BF /BF	1.43%	÷1.211	×1.250	1.47%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 142).

Result: FIP 3.05 → 3.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ROKAZL Reds · 8 IPFIP 7.89 → 10.63 (+2.74)K% 13.5% → 9.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.51%	—	×0.680	9.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.250	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	10.81%	÷1.000	×1.400	15.14%

Result: FIP 7.89 → 10.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Noah Davis (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.48	16.5%	10.9%	3.6%	—	5.66	16.3%	5.1%	86	+0.18	—	—	—
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	81
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	75
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	74
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	74
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	74
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	73
Alfonso Sanchez R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	29	SW	4.51	12.5%	9.8%	2.2%	.346	7.58	8.6%	1.4%	39	+3.07	4.51	224	71
Travis Driskill R 2002 · 4.95 FIP	30	SP-	4.95	13.2%	8.0%	3.6%	.291	4.26	15.3%	12.0%	48	-0.69	4.26	181	71
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	70
Colin Bates R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	27	SP-	4.57	10.5%	6.5%	2.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.57	111	69
Tim Adleman R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	29	SP-	5.35	20.3%	9.4%	5.1%	.276	4.30	22.8%	15.0%	117	-1.05	3.63	605	69
Aaron Wilkerson R 2019 · 4.67 FIP	30	SP-	4.67	20.9%	9.8%	3.8%	.291	3.33	24.6%	19.0%	112	-1.34	2.75	902	69
David Fletcher R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	30	SP-	5.67	7.5%	10.3%	3.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.67	100	69
Josh Zeid R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	30	SW	5.35	18.3%	10.8%	4.4%	.334	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	313	69
Jose A. Flores R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	29	SP-	4.77	13.7%	10.3%	2.8%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	237	68
Kohei Arihara R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	29	SP-	4.58	16.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	135	68
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	68
Derek Eitel R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	29	SP-	4.72	17.2%	16.0%	1.9%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	138	67
Michael Mariot R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	30	SP	5.01	19.8%	11.1%	4.0%	.333	5.03	15.8%	7.4%	182	+0.02	2.40	701	67
Luis Mateo R 2019 · 5.55 FIP	29	SP-	5.55	8.6%	13.4%	2.7%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	160	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	43	17.1%	10.5%	1.67	6.59
Giovanni Carrara ('06)	2.4	59	16.3%	9.7%	1.41	4.69
Wilfredo Ledezma ('11)	2.0	66	15.7%	10.9%	1.02	5.40
JC Ramírez ('19)	1.4	72	16.4%	8.4%	1.44	4.71
Oscar Zamora ('74-'78, -1 WAR*)	1.1	75	15.2%*	5.7%*	2.30*	5.10*
Ed Vosberg ('86-'02, 1 WAR*)	1.2	47	21.0%*	9.6%*	0.86*	4.06*
Minnie Rojas ('66-'68, 1 WAR*)	1.3	87	17.1%*	6.5%*	1.35*	4.07*