Noah Davis
P
Indianapolis Indians
Age 29
RHP
6'2" / 219 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION88 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135126vR 117
ERA5.50
FIP5.17
K%18.6%
BB%11.3%
K-BB%7.3%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 153 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5494.8
Whiff%
p5826.6%
K%
p5523.1%
xwOBA vs
p100.492
CH (3%)
SI (37%)
CT-0.6 (19%)
SL-5.2 (33%)
FB-7.7 (45%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 22 | ROK | AZL Reds | 5 | 5 | 8 | 37 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 100% | 1.6 | 13.5% | 0.0% | 13.5% | 10.8% | 7.88 | 7.89 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | ROK | AZL Reds | 5 | 5 | 8 | 37 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 100% | 1.6 | 13.5% | 0.0% | 13.5% | 10.8% | 7.88 | 8.35 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 19 | 19 | 100 | 420 | 106 | 43 | 6 | 100% | 5.3 | 19.4% | 11.8% | 7.7% | 1.3% | 3.60 | 3.64 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 19 | 19 | 100 | 420 | 106 | 43 | 6 | 100% | 5.3 | 25.2% | 10.2% | 15.0% | 1.4% | 3.60 | 3.05 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 27 | 139 | 614 | 156 | 63 | 27 | 96% | 5.0 | 20.9% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 5.4% | 5.50 | 5.71 | -0.5 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 27 | 139 | 614 | 156 | 63 | 27 | 96% | 5.0 | 25.4% | 10.3% | 15.1% | 4.4% | 5.50 | 4.74 | +1.1 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 21 | 93 | 423 | 77 | 50 | 14 | 91% | 4.0 | 16.0% | 12.6% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 5.81 | 4.88 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 21 | 93 | 423 | 77 | 50 | 14 | 91% | 4.0 | 18.2% | 11.8% | 6.4% | 3.3% | 5.81 | 5.01 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 30 | 10 | 94 | 436 | 92 | 38 | 10 | 33% | 3.1 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 2.1% | 5.65 | 3.87 | +1.5 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 30 | 10 | 94 | 436 | 92 | 38 | 10 | 33% | 3.1 | 21.1% | 8.7% | 12.4% | 2.3% | 5.65 | 3.74 | +1.7 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 2 | 60 | 273 | 69 | 30 | 12 | 5% | 1.4 | 22.9% | 11.4% | 11.5% | 3.9% | 6.49 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 2 | 60 | 273 | 69 | 30 | 12 | 5% | 1.4 | 25.3% | 11.0% | 14.3% | 4.4% | 6.49 | 4.91 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 19 | 18 | 88 | 396 | 76 | 42 | 9 | 95% | 4.6 | 16.9% | 11.1% | 5.8% | 2.5% | 4.50 | 4.46 | +0.7 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | PIT | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 51 | 31 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.6% | 11.3% | 7.3% | 3.3% | 5.50 | 5.17 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | PIT | 1 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.6% | 11.3% | 7.3% | 3.3% | 5.50 | 5.17 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 153 | 670 | 127 | 73 | 18 | — | — | 18.9% | 10.9% | 8.1% | 2.7% | 4.92 | 4.76 | +1.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 6 | 27 | 5 | 3 | 1 | — | — | 18.6% | 11.3% | 7.3% | 3.3% | 5.50 | 4.80 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | PIT | 11 | 11 | 66 | 280 | 51 | 32 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.4% | 11.4% | 7.0% | 3.5% | 5.35 | 5.30 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | PIT | 10 | 10 | 62 | 261 | 47 | 30 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.0% | 11.6% | 6.4% | 3.7% | 5.38 | 5.45 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | PIT | 4 | 4 | 24 | 101 | 19 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.4% | 11.4% | 7.0% | 3.5% | 5.35 | 5.30 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | PIT | 6 | 6 | 34 | 144 | 26 | 17 | 5 | 100% | 5.7 | 18.0% | 11.6% | 6.4% | 3.7% | 5.38 | 5.45 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 38 | 17 | 127 | 588 | 108 | 60 | 27 | 45% | 3.3 | 18.3% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 4.6% | 7.41 | 5.36 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 60 | 27 | 200 | 924 | 170 | 94 | 42 | 45% | 3.3 | 18.3% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 4.6% | 7.41 | 5.36 | +0.1 | ||
| Career | — | 168 | 102 | 582 | 2599 | 494 | 288 | 84 | 61% | 3.5 | 19.0% | 11.1% | 7.9% | 3.2% | 5.23 | 4.67 | +5.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 58 | 35 | 200 | 894 | 170 | 99 | 29 | 61% | 3.5 | 19.0% | 11.1% | 7.9% | 3.2% | 5.23 | 4.67 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Noah Davis (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.17 | 18.6% | 11.3% | 3.3% | — | 5.37 | 18.2% | 6.7% | 128 | +0.20 | — | — | — |
| Carlos Frías R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.59 | 16.9% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .369 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 204 | 73 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.88 | 15.8% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 221 | 70 |
| Paul Clemens R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.76 | 14.9% | 11.0% | 2.8% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.76 | 247 | 69 |
| Justin Masterson R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.06 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .307 | 3.76 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 196 | -0.30 | 3.51 | 269 | 68 |
| Orlando Rodriguez R 2024 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.53 | 13.7% | 10.6% | 2.3% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.50 | 119 | 68 |
| Derek Eitel R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.76 | 17.2% | 16.0% | 2.0% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 138 | 68 |
| Bradin Hagens R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.85 | 14.9% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .341 | 5.33 | 13.2% | 0.6% | 66 | +0.48 | 3.78 | 254 | 67 |
| Jose A. Flores R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 13.7% | 10.3% | 2.8% | .350 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | 237 | 66 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 66 |
| Steve Johnson R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.30 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 3.2% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 152 | 65 |
| Alfonso Sanchez R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.54 | 12.5% | 9.8% | 2.3% | .346 | 7.46 | 8.6% | 1.4% | 39 | +2.92 | 4.54 | 224 | 65 |
| Juan Omar Espinoza R 2028 · 4.68 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.68 | 8.9% | 6.6% | 2.7% | .346 | 4.95 | 8.4% | -0.8% | 52 | +0.27 | 4.68 | 104 | 65 |
| Ramon Delgado R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.73 | 13.8% | 5.9% | 3.7% | .332 | 4.45 | 11.2% | 7.2% | 74 | -0.28 | 4.45 | 135 | 65 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.86 | 17.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | .426 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 133 | 65 |
| Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.10 | 22.8% | 11.5% | 4.5% | .321 | 4.41 | 21.3% | 11.7% | 251 | -0.69 | 3.33 | 556 | 64 |
| Zack Segovia R 2029 · 5.00 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.00 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .314 | 3.41 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.59 | 3.41 | 144 | 64 |
| David Griffin R 2024 · 6.04 FIP | 27 | SP- | 6.04 | 14.5% | 10.3% | 5.2% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.52 | 239 | 63 |
| Kris Medlen R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .261 | 5.16 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.39 | 4.66 | 261 | 63 |
| Kanekoa Texeira R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.12 | 14.5% | 11.2% | 1.5% | .280 | 4.05 | 10.2% | -0.2% | 63 | -0.07 | 4.05 | 165 | 62 |
| Luis Mateo R 2026 · 5.34 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.34 | 8.6% | 13.4% | 2.3% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 160 | 62 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 66 | 18.3% | 11.4% | 1.36 | 5.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |